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post #121 of 207
Fun.

At the 2:50 mark, Palin wonders "just what it is that the VP does all day", and suggests that she would only be interested in the job if she could see how it could be "fruitful for Alaska." That's going to make a nice little ad.

I wonder, given the surprise that this choice has received, how much vetting the McCain campaign has actually done?
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post #122 of 207
I can hardly wait for the next polling data that takes this into account.
Because of my lack of faith in the American voter, I believe McCain will in the short term, possibly longer, overtake Obama.

I still don't get why the race is this close other than the obvious, race.
post #123 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by screener View Post

I can hardly wait for the next polling data that takes this into account.
Because of my lack of faith in the American voter, I believe McCain will in the short term, possibly longer, overtake Obama.

I still don't get why the race is this close other than the obvious, race.

I disagree. I think this is a profoundly weak choice, it plays as a profoundly weak choice, and, coming off the display of cohesive determination at the DNC, just makes the Democratic ticket look all the better.

Her wingnut cred might shore up the base a little, but beyond that, I can't see a single upside.

See, I think this suggests the shallowness of McCain's grasp of electoral politics. It's like they actually believe their own slime-machine, and think that the Obama campaign is about nothing more than "young and different". That policies and governance are nothing compared to appearances, and that "a relatively young woman" somehow steals a match on the Democratic ticket change mantra.

Republicans have been making this self-canceling argument: that, on the one hand, it's absolutely outrageous to suggest that any animosity directed toward Obama is about race (or, previously, that the attacks on Hillary were sexist), but that at the same time potential Hillary or Obama voters are mindless droids that would reflexively vote for the woman or the African American without caring about what they might do, if elected.

In this formulation, the only smart people are the ones that are against the Democratic candidates, because only they look beyond race and gender towards more substantiative matters. The Dems, themselves, of course, are sheep.

So now we get an deeply unqualified woman, apparently based on the principle that now the same morons that were for Hillary will come shuffling over. As Hunter says, it's just insulting.
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post #124 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by BRussell View Post

That's the real danger, that this becomes the media narrative: Biden is a solid choice that reflects well on Obama's seriousness, and Palin is a political hail-mary that underscores McCain's desperation.

I suppose that's a risk, but I think it's probably just as likely that this becomes the media narrative: Wow, look at all that Mavericky goodness! What a Maverick John McCain is. Maverick!
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post #125 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Hunter over at dailykos puts it well:



I think that's the thing that come across-- it just sort of seems like an unserious choice, not just because that it seems based entirely on political calculation, but because even that calculation is half-assed. It's like "Here, a winger for the wingers and a lady for the ladies. Happy now?"

As the right likes to say, it goes to judgement, and it suggests that in matters of judgement McCain doesn't really give a shit.

I'd agree with that assesment...and this coming from someone (myself) who is conservative and felt the Republican party chose the wrong man from the primaries. I'll be basically be giving the Republican party the finger and sending them a message this time around.

BTW, found this humorous on the same site you referenced...



post #126 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Hmmmm, anti-choice hard liner, thinks creationism should be taught in Alaska schools, big oil patsy....

Yep, those Hillary voters are going to be lining up.

Yeah, creationism, polar bears aren't endangered, and open up ANWR.

ANWR has some political traction now, but thinking creationism should be taught in schools..... yikes.

Do you have a link about that addabox? Not being familiar with her, this is the first I've heard of that position and I'm too lazy to find it myself.
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post #127 of 207
IRT McCain's VP choice:

Congratulations President Obama!!
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post #128 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flounder View Post

Yeah, creationism, polar bears aren't endangered, and open up ANWR.

ANWR has some political traction now, but thinking creationism should be taught in schools..... yikes.

Do you have a link about that addabox? Not being familiar with her, this is the first I've heard of that position and I'm too lazy to find it myself.

She's quoted in an article here:, citing an Anchorage Daily News story:

Quote:
"Teach both. You know, don't be afraid of information....Healthy debate is so important and it's so valuable in our schools. I am a proponent of teaching both. And you know, I say this too as the daughter of a science teacher. Growing up with being so privileged and blessed to be given a lot of information on, on both sides of the subject -- creationism and evolution. It's been a healthy foundation for me. But don't be afraid of information and let kids debate both sides."

I'm not sure how well the "mavericky" thing is going to go, given she's such a "safe" pick for the base. It seems more like a continuation of McCain's steady metamorphosis from "maverick" to "whatever it takes."
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post #129 of 207
Don't know much about her, but my first thoughts are that this pick reminds me of Dan Quale. The first Bush picked him because it was supposedly going to help him attract women voters. Seems like a similar tactic on McCain's part.
post #130 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

I disagree. I think this is a profoundly weak choice, it plays as a profoundly weak choice, and, coming off the display of cohesive determination at the DNC, just makes the Democratic ticket look all the better.

Her wingnut cred might shore up the base a little, but beyond that, I can't see a single upside.

See, I think this suggests the shallowness of McCain's grasp of electoral politics. It's like they actually believe their own slime-machine, and think that the Obama campaign is about nothing more than "young and different". That policies and governance are nothing compared to appearances, and that "a relatively young woman" somehow steals a match on the Democratic ticket change mantra.

Republicans have been making this self-canceling argument: that, on the one hand, it's absolutely outrageous to suggest that any animosity directed toward Obama is about race (or, previously, that the attacks on Hillary were sexist), but that at the same time potential Hillary or Obama voters are mindless droids that would reflexively vote for the woman or the African American without caring about what they might do, if elected.

In this formulation, the only smart people are the ones that are against the Democratic candidates, because only they look beyond race and gender towards more substantiative matters. The Dems, themselves, of course, are sheep.

So now we get an deeply unqualified woman, apparently based on the principle that now the same morons that were for Hillary will come shuffling over. As Hunter says, it's just insulting.

We're talking about the American voters, the same ones that re-elected Bush because they didn't get the message that Saddam had nothing to do with 911.

You're giving way to much credit to the voters.
Those morons for Hillary are an eg. of the intelligence of your average voter, not voting at all, or for the opposition out of spite can't be good.

No matter what , I believe racism still plays a big part in choosing a "black boy" as president.
Why else is the race this close?
post #131 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by screener View Post

We're talking about the American voters, the same ones that re-elected Bush because they didn't get the message that Saddam had nothing to do with 911.

You're giving way to much credit to the voters.
Those morons for Hillary are an eg. of the intelligence of your average voter, not voting at all, or for the opposition out of spite can't be good.

No matter what , I believe racism still plays a big part in choosing a "black boy" as president.
Why else is the race this close?

I agree that there are a lot of voters that can be swayed by externals, but I think the number of Hillary voters who would vote for McCain out of spite has been wildly overstated, and I don't think that McCain having picked a woman as a running mate changes that.

I just don't accept the notion that there are "women voters", in any significant numbers, that would vote reflexively for a woman without any concern for the policies that woman is articulating.

Sure, there were a lot of women who voted for Bush, but if they were going to vote for Hillary this time, maybe it had something to do with having grown disenchanted with 8 years of Republican rule? Palin doesn't change that.

If there are a lot of voters that won't vote for Obama because he's black, Palin doesn't change that. The only thing Palin brings to the table is some palatability for the evangelicals, few if any of whom were going to be voting for Obama anyway.
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post #132 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by trumptman View Post

Of course there is always the possibility that America isn't the insanely sexist and racist place you imagine...

Just how "insanely" sexist and racist a place do you think I'm imagining?

I'm guessing that race (and gender in the primaries when Hillary was running) may amount to about a 5-10% difference in voting and polling results. That's perfectly in line with what some exit polling showed during the primaries. In PA, something like 1/6 of voters admitted that race was a factor in how they voted.

Since tight races are what we can expect to be the norm these days, 5-10% shifts, even 1-2% shifts, are deciding factors. Winning is all about playing the number and size of those small shifts to your advantage.

I'll fully admit that my analysis of the effect of the Palin pick is largely guesswork and gut reaction. But no "insanely sexist and racist" view of America is at all involved.
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post #133 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by shetline View Post

Just how "insanely" sexist and racist a place do you think I'm imagining?

I'm guessing that race (and gender in the primaries when Hillary was running) may amount to about a 5-10% difference in voting and polling results. That's perfectly in line with what some exit polling showed during the primaries. In PA, something like 1/6 of voters admitted that race was a factor in how they voted.

Since tight races are what we can expect to be the norm these days, 5-10% shifts, even 1-2% shifts, are deciding factors. Winning is all about playing the number and size of those small shifts to your advantage.

I'll fully admit that my analysis of the effect of the Palin pick is largely guesswork and gut reaction. But no "insanely sexist and racist" view of America is at all involved.

I agree. To the extent that "a woman on the ticket" picks up woman voters, I think you have to allow for a not disparate number of voters being turned off. Within the base, I mean, given that the myth of the programmatically untethered Hillary voter just doesn't make any sense.

I'm curious to know if the right is going to start pretending that race and gender only ever act as positives-- that you can harvest votes with a woman or African American, but it's always outrageous to suggest that anyone ever votes against such people, purely on the basis if race and gender.

I think the Republicans are in danger of losing the plot entirely. They don't seem to be any good at all at speaking to the new realities of American life-- neither demographically nor post-Bush malaise-wise.
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post #134 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

I agree that there are a lot of voters that can be swayed by externals, but I think the number of Hillary voters who would vote for McCain out of spite has been wildly overstated, and I don't think that McCain having picked a woman as a running mate changes that.

I just don't accept the notion that there are "women voters", in any significant numbers, that would vote reflexively for a woman without any concern for the policies that woman is articulating.

Sure, there were a lot of women who voted for Bush, but if they were going to vote for Hillary this time, maybe it had something to do with having grown disenchanted with 8 years of Republican rule? Palin doesn't change that.

If there are a lot of voters that won't vote for Obama because he's black, Palin doesn't change that. The only thing Palin brings to the table is some palatability for the evangelicals, few if any of whom were going to be voting for Obama anyway.

Everyone is entitled to an opinion, but why is the race so close.
Love or hate cable news, but a lot of people don't understand why.

That's why I believe the next polling data will be interesting.

As for not voting for Obama because of race, Palin's choice as VP may make it easier, for women especially, to justify to themselves, to not vote for him.

As to rest, the south comes into play and you'all know they don't vote for their best interests.

Long live the Dixie Chicks.
post #135 of 207
Palin has a son in the army.
post #136 of 207
He's scheduled to go to Iraq. If he gets killed I think McCain wins.
post #137 of 207
oh gosh. I guess we haven't heard about McCain's sons in the military or even Biden's soon to be deployed son.

If only Obama had reproduced earlier, he could have sent off his eldest to fight for his political future in a futile war.
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post #138 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by hardeeharhar View Post

oh gosh. I guess we haven't heard about McCain's sons in the military or even Biden's soon to be deployed son.

If only Obama had reproduced earlier, he could have sent off his eldest to fight for his political future in a futile war.

Biden's son is JAG. Lawyer in a combat zone Plus Biden doesn't want this kid to go whereas Palin is all "I'm very proud of my son BLAH BLAH BLAH". Plus she's a Mom with her son in Iraq. Vagina factor wins.
post #139 of 207
I think Palin is a very risky choice, especially considering McCain's age. Although Palin does do a few things to help strengthen the ticket:
  1. Attact undecided women voters
  2. Improve McCain's "Maverick" mantra
  3. Offer a youthful facet to the campaign
  4. Solidifies Alaska as solid republican state in a year where it may have been possible for Obama to win.

...she also creates some powerful contradictions for the McCain campaign:
  1. Hillary Clinton's feminist supporters backed her because she was qualified to be president and was an icon for feminism. Palin is neither and in a way this is kind of an insult to women that McCain would pick just any women...
  2. ...Especially one that is dangerously unqualified, for the VP spot, what with McCain's age is just a heartbeat away from the top spot
  3. McCain's campaign is founded on experience and stability and the McCain campaign uses Obama's youth and relative inexperience (to McCain) as an argument for why Obama is not ready to lead. Palin has extremely little national experience, little foreign policy experience, and is younger than Obama. If McCain says Obama is not ready to lead, they will look like hypocrites as the Obama campaign can turn around and say that if Obama isn't read to lead, Palin certainly isn't ready to lead.
  4. Although Palin is very young, she has very little "youthfulness" in her manners and ideas, especially technology. Palin cannot energize young voters.

    I truly thing Obama's acceptance speech was a turning point in the election. The speech was very solid as he cleverly and respectfully attacked McCain on a buffet of issues, enumerated his plans in specifics, and emphasized a patriotic theme that appeals to the average American.

    McCain's key talking points against Obama were that he was (A) Unqualified, unready to lead, and (B) All rhetoric, no substance. McCain's selection of Palin removes argument A from consideration, and Obama's new focus on defining change in solid terms weakens argument B. The democrats now have an opportunity to attack the McCain campaign on two fundamental points: (A) Maverick (TM) in the same way McCain attacked Obama on Change (TM), and (B) Experience - by picking someone with almost no experience.
post #140 of 207
As I read more about Palin ...


Unfortunately her time in office is comparable to Obama's. She was a young and ambitious go getter that as type of outsider made it up to governor. Her doings as governor are more than Obama's doings as senator. Obama made it to where he is now by going along to get along. He spent most of his Senate time running for president.

What Obama has over her is his impressive education and natural intelligence. Two books doesn't help. America doesn't read that much these days.


All this restarts the "experience" discussion which is what McCain wanted. When Obama cries "she's not ready" McCain will hold up the two resumés and they will look kind of the same.


At least things are more fun now.
post #141 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by mydo View Post

As I read more about Palin ...


Unfortunately her time in office is comparable to Obama's. She was a young and ambitious go getter that as type of outsider made it up to governor. Her doings as governor are more than Obama's doings as senator. Obama made it to where he is now by going along to get along. He spent most of his Senate time running for president.

What Obama has over her is his impressive education and natural intelligence. Two books doesn't help. America doesn't read that much these days.


All this restarts the "experience" discussion which is what McCain wanted. When Obama cries "she's not ready" McCain will hold up the two resumés and they will look kind of the same.


At least things are more fun now.

But their resumes are unequivocally not the same. Palin has absolutely no experience on a national level as Obama does. And wether or not someone is ready to lead or does not have to do solely with experience as the McCain campaign would have it. It has to do with a variety of things, no doubt including experience, but more importantly, leadership, creativity, intelligence, charisma, good oratory skills, life experience (versus political experience), etc. McCain will have to point this out to defend Palin, and at this point it will become clear that Obama is the better leader. McCain has worse leadership, less creativity, less intelligence, less charisma, and worse oratory skills. Just about the only thing he does have more of is experience. And it's debatable wether that experience is a good thing or a bad thing.
post #142 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by icfireball View Post

But their resumes are unequivocally not the same. Palin has absolutely no experience on a national level as Obama does. And wether or not someone is ready to lead or does not have to do solely with experience as the McCain campaign would have it. It has to do with a variety of things, no doubt including experience, but more importantly, leadership, creativity, intelligence, charisma, good oratory skills, life experience (versus political experience), etc. McCain will have to point this out to defend Palin, and at this point it will become clear that Obama is the better leader. McCain has worse leadership, less creativity, less intelligence, less charisma, and worse oratory skills. Just about the only thing he does have more of is experience. And it's debatable wether that experience is a good thing or a bad thing.

Oh, hey.... and another thing... Palin pronounces nuclear like George Bush... "nuke-you-ler"....

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post #143 of 207
The more I read about Palin, the more I like her...

Quote:
On May 28, Palin signed a bill that would make Alaska the ninth state to not comply with the Real ID Act, a federal law requiring national identification cards.
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post #144 of 207
Oh dear god.
post #145 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post

The more I read about Palin, the more I like her...

Keep reading. I don't think the McCain campaign vetted this woman at all, and from what I'm reading she has some glaring problems that are about to get a lot more scrutiny than Alaska level state-house intrigue generally recieves.
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post #146 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Oh, hey.... and another thing... Palin pronounces nuclear like George Bush... "nuke-you-ler"....


A good commentator on CNN (one of the few) remarked that in his will he wouldn't leave his children to a person he had only met once, but McCain is willing to leave the USA and the world in the hands of Palin, whom he had met only once.

Her speech was also all aimed at Hillary's supporters. The video in the background showed Palin talking with National Guardsmen; sadly, she looks like a little child giggling at romper-room while the military officials look somewhat bored.

Oh. And isn't she under investigation for a scandal?

Not the best choice, by a long shot.

I worry about the future if this duo gain the WH.

Or is McCain trying not to win and thus allow change to happen?

BTW, what now of the ads still supposedly on TV about Obama lacking experience? Those ads now work against McCain, too.

 

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post #147 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post

The more I read about Palin, the more I like her...

Good thing this affects you up in Canada.
post #148 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

BTW, what now of the ads still supposedly on TV about Obama lacking experience? Those ads now work against McCain, too.

They've been saying that about BO for ages. Now of course, when it's the Reps, it's ok not to have even much less experience.
post #149 of 207
Let's compare Elected office and government appointments

Palin
1992-1996 CIty Council in Wasilla
1996 - 2002 Mayor of Wasilla
2002 Lost election for lieutenant governor
2003-2004 Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission resigned over ethic abuse.
2006 - Governor of Alaska

Obama
1997-2004 Illinois state legislature
2004- US Senator for Illinois
post #150 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by mydo View Post

Let's compare Elected office and government appointments

Palin
1992-1996 CIty Council in Wasilla
1996 Mayor of Wasilla
2002 Lost election for lieutenant governor
2003-2004 Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission resigned over ethic abuse.
2006 - Governor of Alaska

Obama
1997-2004 Illinois state legislature
2004- US Senator for Illinois


" Lost election " is not an elected office or appointment.

OOOOOOOOO! City Council!

The only relevant position to the vice president here is Governor. That's only 2 years which is why the news media is saying only 2 years.
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post #151 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

" Lost election " is not an elected office or appointment.

OOOOOOOOO! City Council!

The only relevant position to the vice president here is Governor. That's only 2 years which is why the news media is saying only 2 years.

I'm pointing out the failures as well as the successes. She did more in two years as governor than Barak did as a senator in 4 years.


I know my democrat friends don't hearing the truth but the truth is that Palin has more time in elected office than Barak does.
post #152 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by mydo View Post

I'm pointing out the failures as well as the successes. She did more in two years as governor than Barak did as a senator in 4 years.


I know my democrat friends don't hearing the truth but the truth is that Palin has more time in elected office than Barak does.


Well that as they say is one opinion.
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post #153 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

Well that as they say is one opinion.

No it's a fact. It's a fact that Palin has more time in elected office than Obama does. Irrefutable.



We could end up with this though.

post #154 of 207
losing an election gives you growth
and 2 years trumps obama's 120 days as senator
governor you actually run something, dealing with conflict resolution and party divides
presidents come more from governors rather than senators which don't run anything
also she is on the ticket as a VP NOT THE PRESIDENT,
now lets compare apples to maybe applesauce
the above arguments suggest obama should be a vp candidate competing with pralin
so lets switch the ticket biden for pres, and obama for vp now lets make it competitive.
obama should be a vp not president

my wife likes pralin, because she speaks to the strong woman, that the typical woman's lib doesn't
my wife is a strong intelligent capable, stay at home mom, that values her family, and realizes that her kids need her now, later she can get back to her professional career, sorry this is like running nails against the blackboard to "feminists" and "liberals" she feels great and likes the idea of a truly strong woman can do this, vp and be a wonderful mother and wife, and can very well handle its challenges.
pralin is a wonderful choice....ok flame away, but all the grief she is getting from the left is because she is a threat to their ideals...
flame away and show your threatened ideals
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post #155 of 207
Guys, guys, guys! There's only one reason this person was picked and it's obvious. She was the only viable woman candidate ( to get those exHillary supporter votes ) and a reckless shot at besting Obama's momentum from a very well run democratic convention.

And guys McCain will wish he hadn't. People are hurting out there and....well a line from " Jerry McQuire comes to mind : " They've been to the puppet show. They can see the strings ".
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post #156 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

Guys, guys, guys! There's only one reason this person was picked and it's obvious. She was the only viable woman candidate ( to get those exHillary supporter votes ) and a reckless shot at besting Obama's momentum from a very well run democratic convention.

And guys McCain will wish he hadn't. People are hurting out there and....well a line from " Jerry McQuire comes to mind : " They've been to the puppet show. They can see the strings ".

But Obama is losing his momentum. Point by point McCain is gaining and Obama didn't get a large post convention bounce. If it keeps up his last chance will be the debates. Barring any blunders by these four.

From the start my big grip with Obama was that it was too soon. He should have cooled out in the Senate for 8 year or so. When he ran I thought, "good VP pick". But here we are.
post #157 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by mydo View Post

But Obama is losing his momentum. Point by point McCain is gaining and Obama didn't get a large post convention bounce. If it keeps up his last chance will be the debates. Barring any blunders by these four.

From the start my big grip with Obama was that it was too soon. He should have cooled out in the Senate for 8 year or so. When he ran I thought, "good VP pick". But here we are.


Quote:
But Obama is losing his momentum.

Where? I thought at last count it had gone up since the convention.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html

Also you are making the mistake of comparing her to Obama the presidential candidate.

Let's look at her when compared to Biden the other Vice Presidential candidate.

Also McCain had better hope they can dodge the debates. Obama and Biden will rip those two in to tiny little filets.
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post #158 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

Where? I thought at last count it had gone up since the convention.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html

Also you are making the mistake of comparing her to Obama the presidential candidate.

Let's look at her when compared to Biden the other Vice Presidential candidate.

Also McCain had better hope they can dodge the debates. Obama and Biden will rip those two in to tiny little filets.

You're proving my point for me. Compare June and July to August. Look at the bounce Obama got from the convention, 2.5 points at most? McCain is pulling it back.

Obama is dodging town hall style debates because he doesn't stand up well when he doesn't have a well prepared speech in front of him. McCain does well with the "plain talkin'" guy schtick. Obama should have taken 8 years to do practice unscripted events in front of large groups.
post #159 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by mydo View Post

You're proving my point for me. Compare June and July to August. Look at the bounce Obama got from the convention, 2.5 points at most? McCain is pulling it back.

Obama is dodging town hall style debates because he doesn't stand up well when he doesn't have a well prepared speech in front of him. McCain does well with the "plain talkin'" guy schtick. Obama should have taken 8 years to do practice unscripted events in front of large groups.

Are you being serious?

If it comes to the debates it's all over for McCain.
Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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Without the need for difference or a need to always follow the herd breeds complacency, mediocrity, and a lack of imagination
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post #160 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by mydo View Post

Let's compare Elected office and government appointments

Palin
1992-1996 CIty Council in Wasilla
1996 - 2002 Mayor of Wasilla
2002 Lost election for lieutenant governor
2003-2004 Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission resigned over ethic abuse.
2006 - Governor of Alaska

Obama
1997-2004 Illinois state legislature
2004- US Senator for Illinois

Clearly, political experience is a liability these days. Next up, Carrot Top for Supreme Court Justice!

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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