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The AI vice-prez office pool - Page 5

post #161 of 207
Found this article interesting: 6 Things the Palin pick says about McCain.

Quote:
1. He’s desperate
2. He’s willing to gamble — big time.
3. He’s worried about the political implications of his age.
4. He’s not worried about the actuarial implications of the age issue.
5. He’s worried about his conservative base.
6. At the end of the day, McCain is still McCain.

Dead on in my opinion. Palin is the best the GOP could come up with? No wonder I haven't registered as a Republican since G.H.W. got nominated. It appears they are content to acknowledge the far right margin as their new base. Sigh.



(I know, not supposed to post images, but I thought it was appropriate!)
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post #162 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimmac View Post

Are you being serious?

If it comes to the debates it's all over for McCain.

Obama vs. McCain = bloodbath

Biden vs. Palin = swift, merciless dispatch

Gee, maybe voters will feel sorry for the GOP being so outgunned, they'll look like underdogs and get the vote after all....

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post #163 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank777 View Post

The more I read about Palin, the more I like her...

Why do you not support a national ID? It makes tons of sense from a technology and infrastructure standpoint.
post #164 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by mydo View Post

But Obama is losing his momentum. Point by point McCain is gaining and Obama didn't get a large post convention bounce. If it keeps up his last chance will be the debates. Barring any blunders by these four.

From the start my big grip with Obama was that it was too soon. He should have cooled out in the Senate for 8 year or so. When he ran I thought, "good VP pick". But here we are.

Actually, Obama had the largest bounce from a convention in the history of the Democratic National Conventions.... 8 points according to Gallop.
post #165 of 207
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by icfireball View Post

Actually, Obama had the largest bounce from a convention in the history of the Democratic National Conventions.... 8 points according to Gallop.

That doesn't make sense. First of all, the polls taken after the convention ended aren't even completely out yet. Second, Clinton got something close to a 20 point bounce in 1992 - he was down by about 10 before it and up by about 10 after it.
post #166 of 207
According to our friends at fiverthirtyeight.com, it's looking like a typical bounce

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...polls-829.html
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post #167 of 207
Lots of good stuff on fivethirtyeight.com today!

I think this analysis of the Palin pick is spot on:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...-comments.html

Quote:
So what does McCain do? He picks a woman specifically to aim a wedge at the Obama base. It's a demographic pick - all about gaming the vote and little about governing. This is not the resume of a male candidate that would be acceptable. There is a small but legitimate chance Joe Biden will say something that can be used to call the Obama ticket a sexist one. Biden, of course, will and should be coached to restrain any such "stray comment" impulse in which he is wont to indulge.

Quote:
It's probably not going to work, but we'll see some number soon. I think it's a gamble that McCain will lose. But I do respect the gamble. He looked into the numbers, saw the need to freeze Obama's base or be swamped on the numbers alone, and he took a big risk. Will a pro-life candidate sell those reluctant Democratic women? Again, unlikely. But kick in a few sexist dismissals - particularly any by Joe Sinatra Biden - and the outrage machine might get itself going.
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post #168 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Clearly, political experience is a liability these days. Next up, Carrot Top for Supreme Court Justice!


that might work, he's funny has a interesting perspective and would drive the liberal judges crazy, then they would retire and MCCAIN could appoint 3 judges. woooohoooo
mccain will be the next president, hilliary will make sure
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post #169 of 207
My intuition tells me that this woman would make a good president - maybe the best option is for McCain to win and then die a month later? I can't really see her declaring war on Russia or Iran, for one thing.

Now that Clinton has lost, I don't really have a dog in this race. The long primary tired me out, and Obama has some serious negatives - he has a crap energy plan, and will raise taxes going into a recession. McCain/Palin '08! (as long as McCain agrees to die as soon as possible) - Dead McCain '08!
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post #170 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

My intuition tells me that this woman would make a good president - maybe the best option is for McCain to win and then die a month later? I can't really see her declaring war on Russia or Iran, for one thing.

Now that Clinton has lost, I don't really have a dog in this race. The long primary tired me out, and Obama has some serious negatives - he has a crap energy plan, and will raise taxes going into a recession. McCain/Palin '08! (as long as McCain agrees to die as soon as possible) - Dead McCain '08!

That's the best the opposition can come up with now? Let's get our candidate elected because we'll be better off when he's dead?

My intuition tells me this is the beginning of the end for McSame.
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post #171 of 207
What I want to know is... how in the world is she going to be able to care for her down syndrome baby if she's the goddamn Vice President of the United States of America? Something just doesn't seem right about that. \
post #172 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by Akumulator View Post

What I want to know is... how in the world is she going to be able to care for her down syndrome baby if she's the goddamn Vice President of the United States of America? Something just doesn't seem right about that. \


She'll outsource!
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post #173 of 207
When did Carrot Top hit the gym?!
post #174 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by mydo View Post

When did Carrot Top hit the gym?!

And the net effect is deeply creepy, is it not? I prefer my shitty prop comics to be non-roided out, thanks.
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post #175 of 207
I found this and thought it was worth a chuckle... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qUVQDmLf7s

By the way, Carrot Top's been looking dag nasty for a while now.


I agree with addabox, I'll stick with Gallagher.
post #176 of 207
OMFG! Put some pants on! My eyes, they burn.

Now I have to go hit the booze to get that imaged out of my head so I can sleep tonight.
post #177 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

...and will raise taxes going into a recession...

So you're believing the Republican lies too?

Whose taxes is he going to raise? Yours? You are not that rich (top 5%) if you're posting on this board instead of golfing on Pebble Beach or kicking it on your 60' yacht off the Hamptons.
post #178 of 207
How many middle-class Americans make between 1 and 5 million bucks a year again?

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post #179 of 207
What is the cut line for the top 5%? I've been hunting around but can't find income at the lower end of top 5%.
post #180 of 207
Woops just found it. Over $150,000
post #181 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by mydo View Post

Woops just found it. Over $150,000

Is that household income? Hard to nail down from the link.
post #182 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by sslarson View Post

Is that household income? Hard to nail down from the link.

Did you read the page? You're joking right?

Quote:
Household income in the United States
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
For information on the income of individuals, see Personal income in the United States.
Household income is a measure of current private income commonly used by the United States government and private institutions.
post #183 of 207
Well here's the average just to put things in perspective.

Quote:
On August 26, 2008 the US Census Bureau released its numbers for 2007. In 2007, the US median household income increased to $50,233.00

This is what most people make.

A third as much.

And yes you're right the top 5.84 % start at $150,000.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Househo..._United_States
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post #184 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by mydo View Post

Did you read the page? You're joking right?

Sorry. Calm down. I wasn't trying to be confrontational or deliberately dense. Geez. I did read the page, but the particular chart that amount was gleaned from was unclear (to me at least).
post #185 of 207
Some good info is in the 2nd paragraph:

Quote
In 2007, the median annual household income rose 1.3% to $50,233.00 according to the Census Bureau.[3]

19.26% of all households had annual incomes exceeding $100,000,

12.3% fell below the federal poverty threshold[6] and the bottom 20% earned less than $19,178.


Unquote

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Househo..._United_States

 

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post #186 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonton View Post

So you're believing the Republican lies too?

Whose taxes is he going to raise? Yours? You are not that rich (top 5%) if you're posting on this board instead of golfing on Pebble Beach or kicking it on your 60' yacht off the Hamptons.

top 5% is not as rich as you think - if you are at the 99th percentile you have about $1 million in net worth, not enough so that you can afford a 60' yacht. I'm in the top 1%, and rich enough for a 60' yacht, but not stupid enough to buy a 60' yacht.

Raising taxes on the rich is really bad, as they supply the capital that puts people to work. It might work out OK to do it in boom times, but not while we are in a recession.
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post #187 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

top 5% is not as rich as you think - if you are at the 99th percentile you have about $1 million in net worth, not enough so that you can afford a 60' yacht. I'm in the top 1%, and rich enough for a 60' yacht, but not stupid enough to buy a 60' yacht.

Raising taxes on the rich is really bad, as they supply the capital that puts people to work. It might work out OK to do it in boom times, but not while we are in a recession.

Forgive me if I say we've heard that one before.
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post #188 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

top 5% is not as rich as you think - if you are at the 99th percentile you have about $1 million in net worth, not enough so that you can afford a 60' yacht. I'm in the top 1%, and rich enough for a 60' yacht, but not stupid enough to buy a 60' yacht.

Raising taxes on the rich is really bad, as they supply the capital that puts people to work. It might work out OK to do it in boom times, but not while we are in a recession.

I suggest you do an unbiased comparison of supply-side vs. demand-side economics in times of recession.

Demand side works better in recession. Period. If common people can't (or don't) buy anything, there is no economy. There is no income to support jobs. And the recession gets worse.
post #189 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonton

Demand side works better in recession. Period. If common people can't (or don't) buy anything, there is no economy. There is no income to support jobs. And the recession gets worse.



I thought Mr. Keynes was dead and buried but, sadly, he appears to be alive and well and living in the hearts and minds of big government liberals everywhere.

post #190 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

top 5% is not as rich as you think - if you are at the 99th percentile you have about $1 million in net worth, not enough so that you can afford a 60' yacht. I'm in the top 1%, and rich enough for a 60' yacht, but not stupid enough to buy a 60' yacht.

Raising taxes on the rich is really bad, as they supply the capital that puts people to work. It might work out OK to do it in boom times, but not while we are in a recession.

Maybe. But from $227K to $603K income your taxes go up $12. If you're making more than $603K a year...well my heart doesn't bleed for you.

And note that this is INCOME tax. Your net worth doesn't play into it much at all.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/11/news...ion=2008061113

If there's any tax whining I'd whine about Long Term Capital gains going up under Obama. If Obama provides the exemption for assets held in pension and 401K plans then that pretty much exempts the large majority of normal working Americans that dabble in stocks EXCEPT for their retirement funds.

I'd have to shrug with that exemption and do my asset allocation with that in mind and leave most of that in my long term holdings that live in retirement funds ANYWAY.

By the way...I believe that the 99th percentile is above $1M in net worth. $1M puts you in the 95th percentile and you need at least $6M for 99th.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/Pubs/F.../200613pap.pdf

Given the stock market and real estate losses since 2004 perhaps you are right...but I hope not.

Still no one with a mere $1M in assets can afford a NEW 60' yacht given these start in the $700K range. I briefly entertained the notion of purchasing a 1966 66' Stevens for around $150K as a liveaboard. VERY briefly. With $1M in net worth and a steady income it is doable if living on water is your thing. Not so much as your weekend getaway unless you really really really really want it as your one toy.
post #191 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

top 5% is not as rich as you think - if you are at the 99th percentile you have about $1 million in net worth, not enough so that you can afford a 60' yacht. I'm in the top 1%, and rich enough for a 60' yacht, but not stupid enough to buy a 60' yacht.

Raising taxes on the rich is really bad, as they supply the capital that puts people to work. It might work out OK to do it in boom times, but not while we are in a recession.

Sorry to break it to you e1618978, but your wasting your time.

No one wants to hear that the "top 5% is not as rich as you think" (probably a couple of average run-of-the-mill people who most people would hardly think of as "rich" if they bumped into them at work, in the Home Depot or at a local movie theater).
post #192 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by sslarson View Post



I thought Mr. Keynes was dead and buried but, sadly, he appears to be alive and well and living in the hearts and minds of big government liberals everywhere.


The fact that you admit to thinking that Keynesian economics is dead shows your willful ignorance.
post #193 of 207
Thread Starter 
I think how rich you are has more to do with your financial management than your income. It seems to me that there are tons of people who are in the top 1% of both income and stupidity, and have to get the best cars etc., and blow most of it. On the other hand, there are plenty of people who are middle-income and much more financially sound than people with much higher incomes.
post #194 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

Still no one with a mere $1M in assets can afford a NEW 60' yacht given these start in the $700K range. I briefly entertained the notion of purchasing a 1966 66' Stevens for around $150K as a liveaboard. VERY briefly. With $1M in net worth and a steady income it is doable if living on water is your thing. Not so much as your weekend getaway unless you really really really really want it as your one toy.

Generally, you pay 10% of the cost of the yacht each year in maintenance, and a new 60' yacht costs 500K to $1 million.

http://www.explore-yachts.com/charter/amaretti.htm

If your table is right, I will pay just a little extra in taxes due to the expiry of the bush tax cuts - no big deal because I realized all my long term capital gains already this year to protect me from Obama. I won't be affected directly unless he raises the cap on payroll taxes, but I am still worried about it:

1. Obama raises taxes. Poor people don't benefit until spring 2010 because the 2009 tax year is the first one he can change.

2. As soon as he gets elected, people start selling their stocks that have gains, so as to realize the gains before the tax rates go up. This pushes the stock market down considerably

3. Obama raises spending, thinking that "the exra taxes on the rich" will cover it.

4. 2009 tax year receipts are low due to capital losses, deficit spending discourages foreign capital which pushes stock market down further. Companies are not able to easily raise capital in stock or debt markets, so unemployment goes up.

etc.
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post #195 of 207
If we're talking yachts, maintenance is a big deal (I have owned boats since practically the day I was born), and a 60 footer is big. Berthing costs also aren't cheap.

A good 45-footer is nice, can be handled easily by 2 without much modification and avoids major upkeep and repair costs. It can also be repaired in more yards than can a 60.

Also, never buy a boat brand new; always buy used as you do not want to be off-shore when you discover you have a lemon.

Advice I was given by a SF-based yacht marine surveyor circumnavigating the globe with his wife.

 

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post #196 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by sslarson View Post

Sorry to break it to you e1618978, but your wasting your time.

No one wants to hear that the "top 5% is not as rich as you think" (probably a couple of average run-of-the-mill people who most people would hardly think of as "rich" if they bumped into them at work, in the Home Depot or at a local movie theater).

The top 5% IS rich relative to everyone else. With my current family income I'm paying out nearly $2K a month in child care and able to save 15% gross income for 401K AND save for my kids college AND save some money for a rainy day AND own an iPhone, satellite TV, FIOS internet, blah blah blah STILL have money at the end of the month to do whatever.

Try that on a $61K median family income.

The difference when I walk into a Home Depot is I'm there for fun. Not necessity. The difference when I walk into a theater is that we do so because we want to see a movie before it hits DVD rather than watch it from the comfort of the family room with a 100" screen.

I can afford a $12 tax hike. So can you if you make more than $200K a year. That $600 difference in the two plans means a hell of a lot more to that $61K family than that $7800 swing means to that $227K family.

Explain to me why the hell we need a $7,800 tax break?

Answer: We don't.
post #197 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea

I can afford a $12 tax hike. So can you if you make more than $200K a year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea

Explain to me why the hell we need a $7,800 tax break?

Answer: We don't.

This is the core problem. Lots of people telling other people what they can afford and what they don't need. And then enacting those little finger wagging admonitions into the tax code.
post #198 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bergermeister View Post

If we're talking yachts, maintenance is a big deal (I have owned boats since practically the day I was born), and a 60 footer is big. Berthing costs also aren't cheap.

No doubt. A 60 footer is a lot of boat..way too much boat unless you really know what you're doing...and a 45 footer a lot more reasonable in upkeep and everything else.

Still though, a boat that's travelling vs a boat you live on are two different things. They start shrinking when docked for some reason...
post #199 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by tonton

The fact that you admit to thinking that Keynesian economics is dead shows your willful ignorance.

Hopefulness. Hopefulness. Not ignorance. I know Keynesian economics is alive.
post #200 of 207
Quote:
Originally Posted by sslarson View Post

This is the core problem. Lots of people telling other people what they can afford and what they don't need. And then enacting those little finger wagging admonitions into the tax code.

What we don't need is either tax cut package to be honest AND less spending.

But go ahead and try to justify that a $252K family needs more tax relief than a $61K one. I'm all ears.

I think that the core problem is some folks who have it good are greedy bastards.
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