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UBS starts Apple coverage with claims of ultraportable Mac delay

post #1 of 28
Thread Starter 
A relative newcomer to covering Apple's financial health, UBS Investment Research is beginning its examination of the electronics firm with a positive outlook on the 'stickiness' of the company's brands but also the assertion that it has had to delay shipping a new ultra-mobile Mac.

Analyst Maynard Um echoes analyst reports and leaks that anticipate new Macs (including a revamped MacBook line) and iPods in the second half of 2008 but cites industry checks which point to a "sub-notebook" originally intended for this year but which has allegedly been pushed back to a launch for the first half of 2009.

While the researcher doesn't elaborate on what the mystery Mac would entail, he doesn't see any immediate causes for concern.

"Product slips are typical in the technology industry," Um says.

These checks would also have Apple release additional iPhone colors in time for 2008's holiday season as well a new iPhone the following year, again in the first half.

Much of UBS' outlook, which gives Apple stock a "buy" rating and a target share price of $195, is tied to future products. Um observes that Apple's potential for success hinges in no small part on its ability to generate an attachment to its products, particularly Macs, that isn't really possible with Windows-based systems, where the experience is largely interchangeable between one system and the next.

"We think the Apple 'experience', driven by its ownership of the entire software ecosystem, creates a sticky user base that drives recurring hardware revenue," the analyst explains. "Those accustomed to Apples 'ease of use' and interfaces are unlikely to purchase a Microsoft-based PC. Rather, we believe these users will be more inclined to purchase another Mac when its time for an upgrade, which, in essence, creates a recurring hardware venue for Apple."

The Cupertino, Calif.-based company also helps itself by handling some of the administration that would normally be supplied by another company: since iTunes customers often buy songs from the same company that produces the rest of the software and hardware, this enhances the experience and may give Apple more opportunities for a similar experience in the future.

And while other market observers are concerned at Apple's warnings of a drop in its gross profit margins next quarter through a mystery product transition, Um sees this as a sales grab that should still boost the Mac maker's earnings higher as it both ensures that 'stickiness' and draws in customers through a more competitive price.
post #2 of 28
This is not bad news. Apple can take as long as they like. Just get this one right. No more screw-ups. It isn't like apple to botch things up as much as they have the past few months. They just need to take things a bit slower. It doesn't matter if they make it to market first with the latest greatest product. In the end their products will speak for themselves and win out because of their easy of use, and interoperability. I am really looking forward to what they can do with the tablet market. Just my 2 cents.
post #3 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by CG81 View Post

"Those accustomed to Apple’s 'ease of use' and interfaces are unlikely to purchase a Microsoft-based PC. Rather, we believe these users will be more inclined to purchase another Mac when it’s time for an upgrade, which, in essence, creates a recurring hardware venue for Apple."

This analysis sounds like it could have been done any time in the last 20 years. This UBS guy sounds like an idiot and should quit while he is ahead. Get a clue, bookworm...
post #4 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by megatrick View Post

This analysis sounds like it could have been done any time in the last 20 years. This UBS guy sounds like an idiot and should quit while he is ahead. Get a clue, bookworm...

A bit harsh, eh? When reading any analyst, you need to assume they are writing to the average potential Apple investor, which means it's someone who does not read Apple web sites. So they need to state what seems to us quite obvious.

In this case, however, I think "stickiness" is being mentioned because there are some who see Microsoft's soon-to-arrive marketing blitz as a threat. And Um is trying to point out that the blitz will have no effect on those who've already bought Macs; the ads may slow down those with PCs who may be thinking of switching to Macs, but they will not cause switching to PCs from Macs.
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post #5 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

While the researcher doesn't elaborate on what the mystery Mac would entail, he doesn't see any immediate causes for concern.

Whoopie! Another analyst. These guys are so smart!
post #6 of 28
Classic, an analyst announcing a shipping delay for a product that hasn't been announced or assigned a ship date yet.
post #7 of 28
Cool! (if it's true)
2011 13" 2.3 MBP, 2006 15" 2.16 MBP, iPhone 4, iPod Shuffle, AEBS, AppleTV2 with XBMC.
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2011 13" 2.3 MBP, 2006 15" 2.16 MBP, iPhone 4, iPod Shuffle, AEBS, AppleTV2 with XBMC.
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post #8 of 28
Computer industry analyst is a sweet job if you can get it. You read some tech blogs, skim over a few forums, then check out the Inquirer and the Register. Make some crap up and get paid, aww-yeah.
post #9 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

A relative newcomer to covering Apple's financial health, UBS Investment Research is beginning its examination of the electronics firm with a positive outlook on the 'stickiness' of the company's brands but also the assertion that it has had to delay shipping a new ultra-mobile Mac.

Analyst Maynard Um echoes analyst reports and leaks that anticipate new Macs (including a revamped MacBook line) and iPods in the second half of 2008 but cites industry checks which point to a "sub-notebook" originally intended for this year but which has allegedly been pushed back to a launch for the first half of 2009.

While the researcher doesn't elaborate on what the mystery Mac would entail, he doesn't see any immediate causes for concern.

"Product slips are typical in the technology industry," Um says.

These checks would also have Apple release additional iPhone colors in time for 2008's holiday season well a new iPhone the following year, again in the first half.

Much of UBS' outlook, which gives Apple stock a "buy" rating and a target share price of $195, is tied to future products. Um observes that Apple's potential for success hinges in no small part on its ability to generate an attachment to its products, particularly Macs, that isn't really possible with Windows-based systems, where the experience is largely interchangeable between one system and the next.

"We think the Apple 'experience', driven by its ownership of the entire software ecosystem, creates a sticky user base that drives recurring hardware revenue," the analyst explains. "Those accustomed to Apples 'ease of use' and interfaces are unlikely to purchase a Microsoft-based PC. Rather, we believe these users will be more inclined to purchase another Mac when its time for an upgrade, which, in essence, creates a recurring hardware venue for Apple."

The Cupertino, Calif.-based company also helps itself by handling some of the administration that would normally be supplied by another company: since iTunes customers often buy songs from the same company that produces the rest of the software and hardware, this enhances the experience and may give Apple more opportunities for a similar experience in the future.

And while other market observers are concerned at Apple's warnings of a drop in its gross profit margins next quarter through a mystery product transition, Um sees this as a sales grab that should still boost the Mac maker's earnings higher as it both ensures that 'stickiness' and draws in customers through a more competitive price.

I registered an account just to tell you about this mistake so you can fix it. I might check in for therapy.
post #10 of 28
Um Wu
post #11 of 28
I am so ready to be an analyst. All you have to do is restate what everyone knows after the facts are proven. After Apple makes a huge run they start coverage? Really? Then they point to a delay in unannounced product. Genius! How can you argue it?
post #12 of 28
These people are never right. They always predict Apple to act like Microsoft or any other computer company.

But what Apple does is totally unexpected. That's how they drive their sales.
So this guy can go and research more on next Zune or something.
Apple had me at scrolling
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Apple had me at scrolling
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post #13 of 28
They and Piper Jaffrey merged a few years ago. So with the Piper guys moving into the UBS realm they continue their coverage of Apple and are just adding more analysts.
post #14 of 28
Ultraportable Mac?

Yes, but let it be really ULTRA-PORTABLE. The MacBook Air is too large and too heavy for us. No more than about 5-inch screen or so. The full and complete Mac in your hand and in your pocket. LIke this, but with Mac OS X 10.5.4, FireWire and Ethernet:

OQO model e2
http://www.oqo.com

THE ULTIMATE presentation remote for full blown NATIVE Keynote and PowerPoint files with all that you would get from a laptop (transitions, animations, video, etc).

We need thousands for our University.
post #15 of 28
Like most analysts this one is an idiot too.

If a product has not been announced (not even ACKNOWLEDGED that there IS such a product), then how is it possible to push back the release date?

UBS seems to just to want to pretend it's in-the-know, but in reality they know absolutely nothing.

Also, if this guy's confidential informant said that the ultra-portable was to be released this year, and then later tells him that it's been delayed till 2009, why does he lay the blame on Apple for the delay? Seems to me the blame lies in the unreliable informant.
post #16 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by McDavies View Post

I am so ready to be an analyst. All you have to do is restate what everyone knows after the facts are proven. After Apple makes a huge run they start coverage? Really? Then they point to a delay in unannounced product. Genius! How can you argue it?

Indeed, I woopass 95% of these so called 'analysts', as do many people on this forum. Where do we sign up for the job?
post #17 of 28
If you ask me, only Apple knows what product Apple will release. It's easy to get sidetracked by all this speculation, and frankly most of it has been pretty inaccurate. Steve Jobs is a master of fooling the experts, and he plans to definitely put on a show while he's CEO.
post #18 of 28
The ultra-portable will augment the current iPod line-up. There will be three screen sizes, Nano, standard iTouch, and a new mini-tablet. The mini-tablet will fill the gap between the Macbook Air and the iTouch.

The new "pocket Macs" will have a full OS installed and will be able to be used in conjunction with various peripherals (e.g. wireless keyboard, mouse, and a DVI dock to hook-up to a large screen).

The future is not only in mobile computing devices, themselves, but also is "marrying" those mobile computing devices with the standard work environments (home & office) with docking stations and new work environments (car) with Bluetooth and plug-in ports.

Smaller margins but better experience!

Я гатов )))
post #19 of 28
I wish Apple analysts were the only problem . In general the press has taken this safe get fed a sound byte and repeat it method of "journalism" our universities have produced literary cookie cutters . the warning when liberal arts programs were being phased out was" you will have a generation of great spellers with nothing to say" has come home to roost big time. this poor sucker is just a product of his times.

where would we be today if our trusted wordsmiths (or the nations lawyers for that mater) had pointed out that Colon Powell was holding up a baggy of baking soda and it was an "exhibit" not "evidence" same with the picture of the truck with the crappy labels and stupid arrow.

in the words of Robert Zimmerman "don't follow leaders, watch your parking meters, the pumps don't work cause the vandals took the handles"
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post #20 of 28
Although it was believed that something may or may not be happening at some indeterminate point in the future, it is now believed that something may or may not be happening at some other indeterminate point in the future. I think I've got that clear, thanks.
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Believe nothing, no matter where you heard it, not even if I have said it, if it does not agree with your own reason and your own common sense.
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post #21 of 28
why do I get the feeling that here's someone in their 50s with a BA, a bad haircut, and a bong who's been laid off?

Quote:
Originally Posted by taojones View Post

I wish Apple analysts were the only problem . In general the press has taken this safe get fed a sound byte and repeat it method of "journalism" our universities have produced literary cookie cutters . the warning when liberal arts programs were being phased out was" you will have a generation of great spellers with nothing to say" has come home to roost big time. this poor sucker is just a product of his times.

where would we be today if our trusted wordsmiths (or the nations lawyers for that mater) had pointed out that Colon Powell was holding up a baggy of baking soda and it was an "exhibit" not "evidence" same with the picture of the truck with the crappy labels and stupid arrow.

in the words of Robert Zimmerman "don't follow leaders, watch your parking meters, the pumps don't work cause the vandals took the handles"
post #22 of 28
I am still holding out hope that one of those new products will be a revitalization of the Mac Mini line. Something to compete a little better with the new breed of low price desktops cropping up all over the place now.

Of all the Mac products the MacBook and the Mac Mini are the two least competitive products, when viewed next to their comparably equiped PC opponents. (I.E. they have the highest Mac tax) Thus, I really hope that part of the lower margin speech is related to newly designed MacBooks and Mac Minis with lower price points.

I know that Apple has stayed in the "premium" market before, but the "umbrella" spoken of in the q&a session to me relates to the recent burst of low price laptops and desktops coming out from every corner of the computer world. This is not just second and third tier manufacturers anymore. This is the way the first tier computer manufacturers are moving, which are Apple's competitors.

It is the way of the computer markets future and I would like to see Apple on the leading edge of that, not playing catchup a few years from now.
post #23 of 28
ok I was at woodstock but i got tired of the bong 20 years ago i work on a mac all day doing color correction and advertising with my other hand i'm designing jewelry in a really complex Cad program (rhino) when they have a problem the tech guy at the apple store calls ME for help and my job is well paid and really secure because the company is afraid to hire some snot right out of school who spent 4 years with a teacher showing him where the tools were and having no clue as to when to use them.

you thinking i'm off point for not simply calling this guy names shows me a lot about your lack of ability to use analogy to learn something about the cause of a problem (poor critical thinking ) i think you need to spend some time reading an actual book try the dialogs of plato for a start and see if you can follow the arguments (hint: they are often talking about other situations that illustrate the real point, its a trick to make you think… shhhhh!!!)
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Half the people you meet will be below average
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post #24 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider

Analyst Maynard Um echoes analyst reports and leaks that anticipate new Macs (including a revamped MacBook line) and iPods in the second half of 2008 but cites industry checks which point to a "sub-notebook" originally intended for this year but which has allegedly been pushed back to a launch for the first half of 2009.

I agree. If they mean the "tablet" when they say sub-notebook that is. Cause we all know the Air is the only sub-notebook Apple are coming out with.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #25 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by taojones View Post

ok I was at woodstock but i got tired of the bong 20 years ago i work on a mac all day doing color correction and advertising with my other hand i'm designing jewelry in a really complex Cad program (rhino) when they have a problem the tech guy at the apple store calls ME for help and my job is well paid and really secure because the company is afraid to hire some snot right out of school who spent 4 years with a teacher showing him where the tools were and having no clue as to when to use them.

you thinking i'm off point for not simply calling this guy names shows me a lot about your lack of ability to use analogy to learn something about the cause of a problem (poor critical thinking ) i think you need to spend some time reading an actual book try the dialogs of plato for a start and see if you can follow the arguments (hint: they are often talking about other situations that illustrate the real point, its a trick to make you think shhhhh!!!)

Are you sure you got off bong 20 years ago.........?
post #26 of 28
Quote:
Originally Posted by taojones View Post

ok I was at woodstock but i got tired of the bong 20 years ago i work on a mac all day doing color correction and advertising with my other hand i'm designing jewelry in a really complex Cad program (rhino) when they have a problem the tech guy at the apple store calls ME for help and my job is well paid and really secure because the company is afraid to hire some snot right out of school who spent 4 years with a teacher showing him where the tools were and having no clue as to when to use them.

you thinking i'm off point for not simply calling this guy names shows me a lot about your lack of ability to use analogy to learn something about the cause of a problem (poor critical thinking ) i think you need to spend some time reading an actual book try the dialogs of plato for a start and see if you can follow the arguments (hint: they are often talking about other situations that illustrate the real point, its a trick to make you think shhhhh!!!)

What happened to your period key?
post #27 of 28
Well I for one hope he is wrong about the point he made about Apple not being able to debut the mystery ultraportable this year. But, *sigh* somehow I see Apple letting it slip till macworld 09.
post #28 of 28
Originally Posted by taojones
ok I was at woodstock but i got tired of the bong 20 years ago i work on a mac all day doing color correction and advertising with my other hand i'm designing jewelry in a really complex Cad program (rhino) when they have a problem the tech guy at the apple store calls ME for help and my job is well paid and really secure because the company is afraid to hire some snot right out of school who spent 4 years with a teacher showing him where the tools were and having no clue as to when to use them.

you thinking i'm off point for not simply calling this guy names shows me a lot about your lack of ability to use analogy to learn something about the cause of a problem (poor critical thinking ) i think you need to spend some time reading an actual book try the dialogs of plato for a start and see if you can follow the arguments (hint: they are often talking about other situations that illustrate the real point, its a trick to make you think shhhhh!!!)


Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

What happened to your period key?

taojones: "What period key?"
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