or Connect
AppleInsider › Forums › General › General Discussion › Apple's Sept quarter Mac and iPod sales ahead of estimates
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:

Apple's Sept quarter Mac and iPod sales ahead of estimates

post #1 of 17
Thread Starter 
After extrapolating just-released NPD market research data on Mac and iPod sales for the month of July, investment bank Piper Jaffray is out with a call suggesting that Apple is on track to best Street estimates on both fronts for its September quarter.

Specifically, the preliminary data for July -- the first month of the quarter -- implies that the Cupertino-based company is on its way to selling anywhere between 2.7 million and 2.9 million Macs, analyst Gene Munster advised clients in a research brief on Monday.

That range would imply yearly Mac growth of anywhere from 25 percent to 29 percent, compared to Street consensus estimates that have been hovering around 23 percent growth based on expected sales of 2.6 million Macs.

Even in light of the new data, Munster said he'll remain "conservative" with a 2.55 million Mac number for the September quarter "based on uncertainty around the launch date of new portables late in the quarter."

Separately, the analyst's number crunching on July iPod sales figures has him estimating September quarter sales that will range anywhere from 10.7 million units to 11.2 million units, representing yearly growth of between 5 percent and 10 percent.

Again, the midrange of those figures -- or approximately 11 million units -- would put Apple on pace to cruise past Munster's in-line-with-consensus estimates of 10.8 million total units for the quarter.

"Given concerns regarding iPod weakness, we believe the segment's outperformance relative to typical seasonality is significant," he wrote.

Should Apple achieve the high end of unit sales suggested by the latest NPD date (2.9 million Macs, 11 million iPods), with added sales of 4.1 million iPhones and a gross margin of 32 percent, he estimates the company would see per share earnings of $1.19 on revenue of $8.5 billion. That compares to Street estimates of $1.11 on $8.08 billion and management's guidance of $1.00 on $7.8 billion.

Monday's NPD figures stand as the second batch of data in less than a week to suggest Apple may be flirting with the possibility of its first ever 3.0 million Mac quarter. On Thursday, RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky cited proprietary data in predicting the company was on track to report year-over-year growth of 44 percent to 3.04 million units for the September quarter.

Should Apple miss the 3 million mark, it could still boast bragging rights should it manage to ship 2.896 million systems in the September quarter, which would signify the first 10 million Mac fiscal year in the company's history.

For his part, Munster remains bullish on Apple with a Buy rating and $250 price target.
post #2 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

... he estimates the company would see per share earnings of $1.19 on revenue of $8.5 bullion.

Now, that's bullish
post #3 of 17
Quote:
Specifically, the preliminary data for July -- the first month of the quarter -- implies that the Cupertino-based company is on its way to selling anywhere between 2.7 million and 2.9 million Macs, analyst Gene Munster advised clients in a research brief on Monday.

That range would imply yearly Mac growth of anywhere from 25 percent to 29 percent, compared to Street consensus estimates that have been hovering around 23 percent growth based on expected sales of 2.6 million Macs.

Even in light of the new data, Munster said he'll remain "conservative" with a 2.55 million Mac number for the September quarter "based on uncertainty around the launch date of new portables late in the quarter."


What? No discount for the fact that Apple sells outdated portables?

Every other manufacturer except Apple sells Centrino 2 portables with 45 nm Penryn processors since Intel first introduced the Centrino 2 platform on July 14, 2008. Meanwhile, Apple is milking "back to school" students with outdated computers sold for a premium, but made with older, cheaper, less performing parts.

I guess that you can't teach an old dog new tricks, as the saying goes.

It's sad to realize that Apple will build and sell "state of the art" computers only once the "back to school" period is over.

See:
Intel announces Centrino 2 @ http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/38395/135/

and:

Shhh. We have a product but it’s a mystery @ http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/38550/135/


post #4 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by ouragan View Post

What? No discount for the fact that Apple sells outdated portables?

Every manufacturer except Apple sells Centrino 2 portables with 45 nm Penryn processors since last April or May 2008 when Intel first introduced the Centrino 2 platform.

As usual, Apple is milking "back to school" students by selling them at a premium price its outdated computers made with older, cheaper, less performing parts.

I guess that you can't teach an old dog new tricks as the saying goes.

It's sad to realize that Apple will build and sell "state of the art" computers only once the "back to school" period is over.


http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...book_pros.html
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #5 of 17
I hope Apple complete the sales year with 10M+ macs sold.
Mac user since August 1983.
Reply
Mac user since August 1983.
Reply
post #6 of 17
Quote:

Solipsism, for you to get your point across, the recipient has to be able to read (it).

Based on history, ouragan doesn't have to read anything about Apple or its products to form a judgement. It will always be negative.
post #7 of 17
Quote:
New processors

So, what is new in Centrino 2? Well, first off, there are new processors. Intel has six new processors – two 8000 series (3 MB L2 cache) chips with 2.26 GHz (P8400) and 2.4 GHz (P8600), three 9000 series CPUs (6 MB L2 cache) with 2.53 GHz (P9500 and T9400) and 2.8 GHz (T9600). The P-series marks chips that are rated at a 25 watt TDP while the T-series marks chips with a 35 watt TDP. The new flagship model is the X9100 Extreme model with a 3.06 GHz clock speed and a 44 watt TDP – this processor was widely believed to have been used by Apple in its latest iMac introduced earlier this year (Intel however claimed that the iMac CPU has a 55 watt TDP). Intel said that it will add a mobile 45 watt quad-core version of the Penryn processor later this quarter.


New chipset, new graphics

Montevina comes with a new 45-series chipset that, in its IGC version, promises users enough power to playback Blu-ray movies and enable notebooks to playback an entire Blu-ray movie on one (full) battery charge. Overall 3D mark 06 performance is up 70% over the previous version.

Much more interesting, however, is the introduction of Intel switchable graphics – a technology that can switch between discrete and integrated graphics on the fly. This means that even multi-GPU graphics won’t be draining your battery anymore, if you need the battery power instead of GPU performance – simply switch to integrated graphics and the system will run much more efficiently. The technology works with AMD/ATI and Nvidia graphics.


New wireless chipset, WiMax (almost) and … Turbo Memory!

Complementing Montevina is the new 5000-series wireless chipsets, which comes in two form factors – as 5300 version for regular notebook sizes as well as a smaller 5100 version for compact notebooks. Montevina will also support WiMax within the 5000-series WiFi/WiMax chipsets – as soon as the network is being rolled out (which will be the case this September.)

And no, Turbo Memory isn’t dead yet. Despite its very limited success and AMD’s decision to shelve its competitive solution completely, Intel continues to offer Turbo Memory as flash cache to manufacturers. A 2 GB module is priced between $27 and $30, depending on the version.

See: Intel announces Centrino 2 @ http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/38395/135/


Centrino 2 portables from Apple (and iMacs) will arrive after the "back to school" promotion for students.

\\\
post #8 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

Solipsism, for you to get your point across, the recipient has to be able to read (it).

Based on history, ouragan doesn't have to read anything about Apple or its products to form a judgement. It will always be negative.


May I suggest that you read a bit before you make accusations? For your benefit, I have quoted from TG Daily a description of the benefits of the Centrino 2 platform due to be announced by Apple in late September, after the "back to school" period.

post #9 of 17
@ouragan

My year-old MBP 17" 2.4Ghz/4GB/160GB Santa Rosa is, far and away, a better portable than anything you can put up against it right here and right now. WHY? It runs ANY, I repeat ANY, operating system (and its accompanying software) I care to put on it. Not only is its native OS X the finest operating system available (making VISTA look like a blood-on-wall caveman painting), I can also reach all the way back into XP and Mac Classic ("Classic-On-Intel" 4.1), making my unit the talk and envy of any conference room or coffee shop.

Certainly, computers will always run neck-and-neck horse races with "who's got the faster this or faster that," but Microsoft trolls will always be hobbled with outdated, outmoded, legacy operating systems that should have been shot and put out of their misery LONG, LONG AGO. And no amount of advertising money ($300,000,000) can make you feel any better about yourselves.

Yep, I can run ANYTHING on my MBP--screaming fast--even as "old" as it is. And I do, each and every day, all at the same time on one platform. CAN YOU WITH YOUR BRAND NEW "STATE-OF-THE-ART PEECEE?
post #10 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

Solipsism, for you to get your point across, the recipient has to be able to read (it).

Based on history, ouragan doesn't have to read anything about Apple or its products to form a judgement. It will always be negative.

Thanks. I looked at his posts and he is the one that says CEOs should have a college degree and decades of experience mean nothing without that piece of paper.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ouragan View Post

See: Intel announces Centrino 2 @ http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/38395/135:

That linked article titled "Intel announces Centrino 2" is from July 14, 2008, yet you vehemently claim that Centrino 2 has been in use by "Every manufacturer except Apple [...] since last April or May 2008." Giving you the benefit of the doubt, Penryn != Centrino 2. Also, Centrino 2 still isn't ready, or at least ready for Apple's excessive needs.


Quote:
Centrino 2 portables from Apple (and iMacs) will arrive after the "back to school" promotion for students.

My guess is that despite the well rumoured September event the new Apple notebooks won't be available until at least October because of delays by Intel. If I recall correctly, in the past any new products that come out just before the end of the Back To School promotion were excluded from the list.
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
Dick Applebaum on whether the iPad is a personal computer: "BTW, I am posting this from my iPad pc while sitting on the throne... personal enough for you?"
Reply
post #11 of 17
Quote:
My year-old MBP 17" 2.4Ghz/4GB/160GB Santa Rosa is, far and away, a better portable than anything you can put up against it right here and right now. WHY? It runs ANY, I repeat ANY, operating system (and its accompanying software) I care to put on it. Not only is its native OS X the finest operating system available (making VISTA look like a blood-on-wall caveman painting), I can also reach all the way back into XP and Mac Classic ("Classic-On-Intel" 4.1), making my unit the talk and envy of any conference room or coffee shop.

Certainly, computers will always run neck-and-neck horse races with "who's got the faster this or faster that," but Microsoft trolls will always be hobbled with outdated, outmoded, legacy operating systems that should have been shot and put out of their misery LONG, LONG AGO. And no amount of advertising money ($300,000,000) can make you feel any better about yourselves.

Yep, I can run ANYTHING on my MBP--screaming fast--even as "old" as it is. And I do, each and every day, all at the same time on one platform.


Great! Your experience is the best publicity for Apple. We should hear positive stories like that on TV for consumers to know why they should buy from Apple.

Sadly, Apple is still overpriced.

post #12 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by ouragan View Post

Great! Your experience is the best publicity for Apple. We should hear positive stories like that on TV for consumers to know why they should buy from Apple.

Sadly, Apple is still overpriced.


It is a case of getting what you pay for. Apple hardware might be a bit more expensive, which by the way is highly debatable, but you do get something in return.

As to your whining about the back to school crowd who really cares? The usual approach of most students is t find something that fits their budget and hopefully gets them through x number years of school. I would not be surprised to find that 3/4 of the students going back to school this year are doing so with laptops more than a year old.

With respect to Centrino 2 those in the know will adapt their buying decisions to make sure the get what they want. In any event the value of Centrino 2 for the average student is questionable at best. For the first year it won't be used for much more than text entry and maybe a tiny amount of data processing. Like I said above once a student progresses to the point where he knows what he is doing he can adjust is compute power to fit.

Dave
post #13 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Thanks. I looked at his posts and he is the one that says CEOs should have a college degree and decades of experience mean nothing without that piece of paper.

I remember that post, what a stupid thing to say.
post #14 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by ouragan View Post

Great! Your experience is the best publicity for Apple. We should hear positive stories like that on TV for consumers to know why they should buy from Apple.

Sadly, Apple is still overpriced.


Overpriced? I don't think so. Let's take, for example, the all-in-one desktops. When you look at the comparisons, think both hardware and software included or not included. Now go to the links and see who's more overpriced. I think you'd have to admit it's not the imacs. Care to agree?

http://www.bestbuy.ca/catalog/subcla...EN&catid=26199

http://www.bestbuy.ca/catalog/subcla...EN&catid=22154

post #15 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

Solipsism, for you to get your point across, the recipient has to be able to read (it).

Based on history, ouragan doesn't have to read anything about Apple or its products to form a judgement. It will always be negative.

I checked out the meaning of the word "ouragan." Now I know why the negativity. Here's the answer:

ouragan
furacan, huracan, uracan, XVIe et déb. XVIIe; esp. huracan «tornade», mot caraïbe.
Hurricane : from Spanish huracán, borrowed from Taino (an Arawakan language originally spoken in the Bahamas) hurákan "center of the wind" from hura "wind" + kán "center," akin to Arawakan kulakani "thunder." Today's word may have also been influenced by Hurakan, the ancient Mayan god of wind and storm, whose name means "one-legged" in Mayan.gerd/tond-bâd


Btw, I don't mean to insult anyone.
post #16 of 17
Record breaking mac sales, increases in market share forthcoming. Could someone please tell me what it takes for these pinheaded pricks in the stock market to Buy and not Sell Apple stock?

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

After extrapolating just-released NPD market research data on Mac and iPod sales for the month of July, investment bank Piper Jaffray is out with a call suggesting that Apple is on track to best Street estimates on both fronts for its September quarter.

Specifically, the preliminary data for July -- the first month of the quarter -- implies that the Cupertino-based company is on its way to selling anywhere between 2.7 million and 2.9 million Macs, analyst Gene Munster advised clients in a research brief on Monday.

That range would imply yearly Mac growth of anywhere from 25 percent to 29 percent, compared to Street consensus estimates that have been hovering around 23 percent growth based on expected sales of 2.6 million Macs.

Even in light of the new data, Munster said he'll remain "conservative" with a 2.55 million Mac number for the September quarter "based on uncertainty around the launch date of new portables late in the quarter."

Separately, the analyst's number crunching on July iPod sales figures has him estimating September quarter sales that will range anywhere from 10.7 million units to 11.2 million units, representing yearly growth of between 5 percent and 10 percent.

Again, the midrange of those figures -- or approximately 11 million units -- would put Apple on pace to cruise past Munster's in-line-with-consensus estimates of 10.8 million total units for the quarter.

"Given concerns regarding iPod weakness, we believe the segment's outperformance relative to typical seasonality is significant," he wrote.

Should Apple achieve the high end of unit sales suggested by the latest NPD date (2.9 million Macs, 11 million iPods), with added sales of 4.1 million iPhones and a gross margin of 32 percent, he estimates the company would see per share earnings of $1.19 on revenue of $8.5 billion. That compares to Street estimates of $1.11 on $8.08 billion and management's guidance of $1.00 on $7.8 billion.

Monday's NPD figures stand as the second batch of data in less than a week to suggest Apple may be flirting with the possibility of its first ever 3.0 million Mac quarter. On Thursday, RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky cited proprietary data in predicting the company was on track to report year-over-year growth of 44 percent to 3.04 million units for the September quarter.

Should Apple miss the 3 million mark, it could still boast bragging rights should it manage to ship 2.896 million systems in the September quarter, which would signify the first 10 million Mac fiscal year in the company's history.

For his part, Munster remains bullish on Apple with a Buy rating and $250 price target.
post #17 of 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by ericblr View Post

Record breaking mac sales, increases in market share forthcoming. Could someone please tell me what it takes for these pinheaded pricks in the stock market to Buy and not Sell Apple stock?

You sell yours and then they will start buying.
New Posts  All Forums:Forum Nav:
  Return Home
  Back to Forum: General Discussion
AppleInsider › Forums › General › General Discussion › Apple's Sept quarter Mac and iPod sales ahead of estimates