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Apple shares tumble on downgrades from investment banks

post #1 of 146
Thread Starter 
Shares of Apple bled more than 17 percent of their value in Monday morning trading on the Nasdaq stock market after analysts for investment banks Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital both downgraded their outlook on the company, citing a worsening consumer environment.

Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty cited three primary concerns while downgrading shares from Overweight to Equal-weight, and cutting her fiscal 2009 per-share earnings growth estimate to 6 percent -- 9 percent below the Street's 15.5 percent consensus target.

First, she said, PC unit growth is decelerating to the point where the remaining growth opportunities largely exist in the sub-$1,000 market, a segment where Apple doesn't yet compete.

The analyst also outlined a new series of performance scenarios where the best case would have the company's per-share earnings growth decelerating "meaningfully" from levels reported at the end of the June quarter. She now expects December quarter per-share earnings to decline 8 percent year-over-year, compared to the 29 percent growth witnessed during the June quarter.

"Lastly, we believe multiples for high growth stocks will continue to compress in the current environment and, in the context of our 6% fiscal 2009 per-share earnings growth assumption, we dont believe Apple is immune to this trend," Huberty wrote.

She cut her price target on the Mac maker's shares from $178 to $115.

RBC Capital Markets

Over at the Royal Bank of Canada, analyst Mike Abramsky downgraded Apple shares to Sector Perform from Outperform, citing a "worsening consumer spending environment" that has led to reduced visibility to growth and margins, as well as elevated risk to valuation.

In particular, he pointed to his firm's most recent Changewave study that shows Mac purchase intentions suddenly moderating, with 29% intending to purchase a Mac laptop next 90 days (down from 34% in August) and 26% intending to purchase a Mac desktop (down from 30% in August).

"These are the biggest declines in 2-1/2 years," he wrote, adding that a separate Changewave study of 4,100 respondents revealed that 40% of consumers plan on spending less on electronics next 90 days, which is "the weakest outlook ever seen."

While Abramsky is a firm believer that Mac momentum remains strong, he modeled his 3 million unit September quarter estimate down to 2.9 million units, and said he sees elevated risk for disappointing guidance from the company for its holiday quarter.

Still, the analyst expects the company to report sales of 14 million iPhones in 2008, 24 million in 2009, and see its shares of the PC market rise to 4.1 percent by the end of 2009.

Abramsky, who cut his price target on Apple shares to $140 from $200, suggested the company could use some of its $21 billion in cash to repurchase about 5 percent of its outstanding shares "without significantly impacting its financial position and return to shareholders some of its expected strong fiscal 2009/2010 cashflow."

Shares of Apple were trading down $22.30 (or 17.39%) to $105.94.
post #2 of 146
I really hate the stock market, you think I would learn...but never do
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post #3 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by dizzy13 View Post

I really hate the stock market, you think I would learn...but never do

I hear ya... or should I say, I am feeling it...
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post #4 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

She cut her price target on the Mac maker's shares from $178 to $115.

In particular, he pointed to his firm's most recent Changewave study that shows Mac purchase intentions suddenly moderating, with 29% intending to purchase a Mac laptop next 90 days (down from 34% in August) and 26% intending to purchase a Mac desktop (down from 30% in August).

A couple of observations here... saying that you were 40% off on your target days before doesn't instill much confidence in me that you know what you are talking about. Follow the leader on the downgrades?

And, a lot of people know (or think they know) that new laptops are coming out soon, and that the imac and Mac Pro are due for a refresh/remake, thus the sudden moderation in intent to purchase.

I am buying more AAPL at these levels.
I think Apple will buck the trend as consumers want value for their money.
post #5 of 146
ahhahahahaha rotfl

I did say it would tumble to $99.00

Not too far off.

I still think it will tumble even further past $88 once the real crash sets in. Maybe even to the 50's.

Don't believe me?

Watch...but first there will be a buying frenzy AFTER it dips even lower. This is where all the suckers get taken.
post #6 of 146
I think it's mainly the speculative folks that are selling off.. creating opportunity for those of us who believe in the company.

Apple has been rocking and rolling lately on the global scene.. and I think the stock will adjust in a year or two to even higher levels when it becomes apparent how well the iPhone, App Store, and Mac Touch have affected their bottom line.

Plus, remember, Apple is a DEBT-FREE company! I wouldn't be surprised if some of the PC makers stopped making computers in the coming rough times.. I think Apple is very well positioned to gobble up more of the market.

and, I too am going to buy more AAPL at these levels!
post #7 of 146
My other tech holdings aren't getting punished like this. Look at Cisco and MS today. Even GOOG isn't off more than it might be on any given day. Nobody is taking the beating that aapl is. This smells of manipulation. aapl is going to report another blowout quarter. When they do, nobody will mention what these analysts said today.
post #8 of 146
They try every little excuse to bring down the stock price just so they can buy low. Time and time again Apple still sells iPods,iPhones and Macs, regardless of the economy. I surveyed people in line buying iPhone and they said they would eat Top Ramon for a month just to have an iPhone if they could not afford it.
post #9 of 146
I thought Republicans were good at screwing the little guy and middle class but at least were good at big business...guess they aren't even good at that...
post #10 of 146
I'd buy up AAPL in a heartbeat. Instead my cash flow is limited so I can pick up a new laptop the second they come out, supplement that with a 1TB time machine, kick in an iPhone, sign up for the cloud to keep it all in sync, and pick up a new touch to give to my wife (a token of my love, a gift to stem the looks I'll get when she sees all that I bought, and a way that she'll always have my calendar in front of her so she'll stop telling family members I'm available during my college football team's game times).

I imagine many others are holding off on their purchases too. Now's the time to get stock because if the new machines come out we'll see a good buying season despite the economic slowdown.
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post #11 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

First, she said, PC unit growth is decelerating to the point where the remaining growth opportunities largely exist in the sub-$1,000 market, a segment where Apple doesn't yet compete.


Funny how she mentioned sub-$1,000 just as rumors about a possible new notebook refresh and possible desktop with price cuts. which will bring the MacBook basic configuration below $1,000. Beside, Apple already have sub-$1,000 computer called Mac Mini but I guess cheap computers should also be ugly and noisy to qualify as cheap.
post #12 of 146
http://www.jlaventures.com/content/view/133/33/

Maybe RBC wanted to give Apple an equivilant Hit to even things up with RIM?
post #13 of 146
The most surprising part of this analysis to me was finding out that there were any investment banks left to downgrade anyone. Maybe this is a "Oh My God! Is that the Goodyear Blimp!" move to get people to look the other way.
post #14 of 146
Apple is surrounded by hysteria. Every news item is either proclaimed the greatest advance in human history or as a total disaster. Everything is blown out of proportion. That's why APPL's stock is so volitile.
post #15 of 146
Who is down grading these investment banks since these banks made all the mass today.
post #16 of 146
Funny how these investment banks can downgrade Apple's stock-maybe they should have downgraded their own first!!

If they can't even get their own act together, how can they know anything about anyone else?!
post #17 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

A couple of observations here... saying that you were 40% off on your target days before doesn't instill much confidence in me that you know what you are talking about. Follow the leader on the downgrades?

And, a lot of people know (or think they know) that new laptops are coming out soon, and that the imac and Mac Pro are due for a refresh/remake, thus the sudden moderation in intent to purchase.

I am buying more AAPL at these levels.
I think Apple will buck the trend as consumers want value for their money.

Spot on studiomusic. It is amazing to see how the "experts" still have the gall to tell me what I and my business are prepared to buy when half of them have just lost their drawers. I think a lot of it comes from them pushing paper or pixels around a desk(top) and not actually making something that people WANT to buy.
"Run faster. History is a constant race between invention and catastrophe. Education helps but it is never enough. You must also run." Leto Atreides II
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"Run faster. History is a constant race between invention and catastrophe. Education helps but it is never enough. You must also run." Leto Atreides II
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post #18 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by frankie View Post

Funny how these investment banks can downgrade Apple's stock-maybe they should have downgraded their own first!!

If they can't even get their own act together, how can they know anything about anyone else?!

Yet the street still listens to these analysts.
post #19 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by willgonz View Post

They try every little excuse to bring down the stock price just so they can buy low. Time and time again Apple still sells iPods,iPhones and Macs, regardless of the economy. I surveyed people in line buying iPhone and they said they would eat Top Ramon for a month just to have an iPhone if they could not afford it.

Every little excuse is right. These investment banks:

1) Make money on trades (other people buying and selling through them)

2) Are suffering right now big-time . . .

Are we surprised that they want to kick a good stock in the teeth with some
flimsy excuses, watch it drop as people sell, sell, sell, and then in a few
weeks when new laptops are announced they praise it and lift their
expectations, then watch people buy, buy, buy?

Watch for more of this. It's fear-mongering, followed by good-news-sharing,
followed by fear-mongering . . . to pump up trades both ways.
Journalism is publishing what someone doesn't want us to know; the rest is propaganda.
-Horacio Verbitsky (el perro), journalist (b. 1942)
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Journalism is publishing what someone doesn't want us to know; the rest is propaganda.
-Horacio Verbitsky (el perro), journalist (b. 1942)
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post #20 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by studiomusic View Post

A couple of observations here... saying that you were 40% off on your target days before doesn't instill much confidence in me that you know what you are talking about. Follow the leader on the downgrades?

And, a lot of people know (or think they know) that new laptops are coming out soon, and that the imac and Mac Pro are due for a refresh/remake, thus the sudden moderation in intent to purchase.

I am buying more AAPL at these levels.
I think Apple will buck the trend as consumers want value for their money.

To your first point, they are dropping price expectations for 12 months from now, reflecting current economic conditions. Basically they are saying that they don't see any upside opportunity for the stock, given the broader market performance.

To the second point... My God I hope Apple introduces an Eee/MSI Wind/Aspire killer within two weeks. If they wait until MWSF it will be too late; they need it for the Christmas season. They also need to bring the Mini to a more compelling specification and price point from where I sit, and drop prices on the laptop line across the board by about 10-15%. For the first time in years I can't justify buying a mac for my business.

The bottom line is AAPL is likely to keep dropping for a while. I think they would have to put about $10B into a share repurchase to bring any positive momentum. The cards up their sleeves are the deferred revenue on the iPhone and the cash. I can't imagine a netbook coming out before MWSF...
post #21 of 146
Isn't it about time they banned short selling of ALL stocks ? These analysts suddenly predict lowered profits for a stock, lower their estimates, surprise surprise, the stock falls. Someone is making a killing here, and it stinks.

Apple totally baffles the analysts because it just doesn't fit into their models. Is it a tech company ? A media company ? A mobile phone company ? A consumer electronics company ? A hardware company ? A software company ? A retailer ? A manufacturer ? An online retailer ?

The answer to all of those is 'Yes' - unlike any other company that exists. Therefore, Apple gets beat with the same stick that's beating every other stock in each of these markets. It's crazy.

With $21 billion sat in the bank I think Apple's looking pretty damned pretty right about now. I just hope that cash isn't sat in any of THESE banks' accounts....
post #22 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

To the second point... My God I hope Apple introduces an Eee/MSI Wind/Aspire killer within two weeks. If they wait until MWSF it will be too late; they need it for the Christmas season. They also need to bring the Mini to a more compelling specification and price point from where I sit, and drop prices on the laptop line across the board by about 10-15%. For the first time in years I can't justify buying a mac for my business.

Why though ? The margins on Netbooks must be wafer thin. Apple's Macbook is in the Amazon top 10 laptop sellers, despite it's price, and it generates a healthy chunk of profit for the company.

Apple's not about mass market, cheap-as-chips products. It's about making a profit. It seems to be pretty damned good at the latter, not that the street seems to care. Perhaps Wall Street has forgotten about making profits these days ?
post #23 of 146
Typical analyst mentality: See cash, demand stock repurchase to buoy up the stock price. How stupid! If the point of your stock repurchase is to raise the stock price then that is an artificial short-term measure. Does a stock repurchase plan enhancee the future profitability of the company? No! So as soon as you use up all the cash budgeted for stock repurchases then the stock price will go back down to its real level.
post #24 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by djbeta View Post

I think it's mainly the speculative folks that are selling off.. creating opportunity for those of us who believe in the company.

Apple has been rocking and rolling lately on the global scene.. and I think the stock will adjust in a year or two to even higher levels when it becomes apparent how well the iPhone, App Store, and Mac Touch have affected their bottom line.

Plus, remember, Apple is a DEBT-FREE company! I wouldn't be surprised if some of the PC makers stopped making computers in the coming rough times.. I think Apple is very well positioned to gobble up more of the market.

and, I too am going to buy more AAPL at these levels!

I was thinking the same thing. Apple even could help bail out Wall Street it is so solvent!

Go Apple! I am hanging in there. Luckily I bought most of mine at 30 something
Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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Been using Apple since Apple ][ - Long on AAPL so biased
nMac Pro 6 Core, MacBookPro i7, MacBookPro i5, iPhones 5 and 5s, iPad Air, 2013 Mac mini, SE30, IIFx, Towers; G4 & G3.
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post #25 of 146
Hmm, so Apple has $22b in the bank, and the share price is dropping to a very low point. If Apple believe in their future products and profitability, could we expect to see them buy up a lot of their own shares, especially if they tumble below $100? Then they can sell them in the future when they are $200+ again, and raise a metric buttload of cash.

Or they can sell their products for a much cheaper price and take the hit on their profits! $399 Mac Mini por favor!
post #26 of 146
Apple doesn't have to outrun the bear, it just has to outrun Microsoft. I.e., Apple can increase its share of the high-end market very significantly at the expense of MS-based PCs, as it has been doing for years at an accelerating rate, offsetting the slowdown in the growth of that portion. The growth of the low-end market is only in terms of volume, and the leaders in that portion, like Dell, are "enjoying" profitless prosperity, because margins are low.

Anyway, Apple can bring out a low-end Macbook with an Atom processor within the next year (at most). And it can refurbish its current low-end product, the Mini, very easily. So it's not as though they're locked out of the high-volume low-end. They can make a move into it easily if it seems to offer the best payoff.

What I suspect is behind half of this steep price decline is Wall Street insiders passing rumors (though not in printed or posted material) about Steve's possible resignation.

What these analysts aren't considering is the possibility of a positive black swan, such as an agreement with IBM (early next year?) to resell Macs worldwide. It would make great sense for both companies. Such a "bolt from the blue" would goose the stock considerably, and squeeze the shorts good and hard.

A stock repurchase by Apple needn't deprive them of their cash hoard permanently: they could resell the shares at a large profit in six or 12 months, when the price is back over $150.
post #27 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

T
To the second point... My God I hope Apple introduces an Eee/MSI Wind/Aspire killer within two weeks. If they wait until MWSF it will be too late; they need it for the Christmas season. They also need to bring the Mini to a more compelling specification and price point from where I sit, and drop prices on the laptop line across the board by about 10-15%. For the first time in years I can't justify buying a mac for my business.

The bottom line is AAPL is likely to keep dropping for a while. I think they would have to put about $10B into a share repurchase to bring any positive momentum. The cards up their sleeves are the deferred revenue on the iPhone and the cash. I can't imagine a netbook coming out before MWSF...

Nope. Sorry, I don't get any of this. Sounds like the sort of short term panic nonsense that other companies indulge in. If you expect Apple to do any of this you are going to be sorely disappointed, thank God.
post #28 of 146
I am tempted to buy some Apple stock, i really should have long ago.

I can see where these analysts are going... Apple = premium product and somehow the demand for these products will be very elastic, people don't "Need" Apple computers so they'll get something more affordable.... except for...

I really don't think you can really affect your bottom line very much by buying or not buying whatever Apple product you're looking to buy. Having ANY CELLPHONE costs a ton of money, it costs $600+ a year per person... yet it's cheaper than wasting gasoline by being at the wrong place at the wrong time and having to travel more. Technology is economical, it is by its very nature...

Examples:
a butler would be a better security system than a home alarm... but who can afford a butler?

Before the iPod, it was the DiskMan and you could really spend as much if not more for those devices as an iPod costs. iPods are super affordable at the end of the day (they always were), much more affordable than having to mess with swapping out iTunes for a non-organized media manager. So iPods are NOT going to suffer. I just don't think our society will go from ultra-bratty to not bratty at all... I don't see it.

I think that the people that buy Apple computers tend to be very well off, so much so that they're spending a ton of money on other things... month to month things like a big mortgage/expensive rent, gasoline and the corresponding newer car, month to month techie stuff like cellphone bills, internet access, cable and so on. How is buying a $500 Acer instead of a $1000.00 MacBook going to affect their life? I simply don't think it will, $500.00 is a laughable amount of money, particularly when you're talking about a $500.00 difference every 3 years or so. Same thing with iPods... you can buy something you don't want for less money, but how is that going to feel over the 3-year life-span of the iPod? Apple earns their premium through superior design and relatively reliable stuff (no viruses, no bloatware, high end CPUs on every product, integrated design).

Electronics are cheap, so even Apple is cheap. If you can buy yourself some longevity, simplicity, and quality of life by buying Apple instead of Acer is going to continue to make sense. Adults inclined to buy an Apple will look to fuel expenses to save money... meaning they'll buy a Corolla or a Civic... they're not going to pinch a penny on their technology purchases. If Apple can make an enticing product, with enough innovation to lure us in... they surely will, as well as ever.

The demand for Apple's product is relatively inelastic. If we were talking about BMWs... yeah, good luck selling $45,000 1-series coupes in this economy, particularly with the $1.50 per Euro thing going on. But Macs and iPods are made in China... and they've always had healthy margins, that will continue. Technology is affordable and so will not be cut. Fancy, fuel guzzling cars are on their way out... people will seek to replace their $2000/mo rent or mortgage for a $1200.00/mo rent or mortgage... saving $25.00/mo by not buying Apple products is just not worth the loss of quality of life for the $.

Apple is subject to speculation, but there has never been a company that is better at generating desire in an inexpensive piece of electronics in a box. So long as Steve Jobs is alive and healthy, that stock will be worth buying and or keeping.
post #29 of 146
Makes perfect sense to me, Apple stock is quite high and rumoured future products or areas the company is going to go in don't suggest to me that its going to push the price any higher, therefore its the time to sell.

There may be new iMacs etc to come out soon, but that's what Apple sells so in theory it shouldn't boost revenue it should just maintain it at an admittedly good level, but it was around that good level or predicted to reach that when the price of stock originally went upwards.

To me iPODs can't go anywhere but stay the same or decline as people start to go to other manufacturers. Stock felt the impact of the iPhone with the first model and the second offers little to boost it. Add in the current economy that is going to get a lot worse before it gets better and I think they've got it right.

If you own stock and can make a decent profit still selling now, then now's the time to do it before it drops any more. If you can't then stick it out, I think its safe stock to hold onto and it will rise again but I doubt it will for a while. If you don't own any stock though, I think its going to fall a lot more and then you can make a killing.
post #30 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lafe View Post

Every little excuse is right. These investment banks:

1) Make money on trades (other people buying and selling through them)

2) Are suffering right now big-time . . .

Are we surprised that they want to kick a good stock in the teeth with some
flimsy excuses, watch it drop as people sell, sell, sell, and then in a few
weeks when new laptops are announced they praise it and lift their
expectations, then watch people buy, buy, buy?

Watch for more of this. It's fear-mongering, followed by good-news-sharing,
followed by fear-mongering . . . to pump up trades both ways.

I agree. Fast money is made or lost on volatile stocks. AAPL is a strong company from the perspectives of financial fundamentals and future revenue. Why not kick AAPL down a lot, buy in, and over the next 3 weeks watch it rise. Would you rather do that to AAPL or RIM? Pretty easy choice.

Wall Street lives for this. I would imagine that most traders who still have a job are welcoming this fiasco we are going through.

To the guy that commented on one political party screwing this up I say to you that every politician is a crook and all parties involved are responsible for mortgage companies writing risky loans to people who could not make the payment because they can not manage their spending habits or desires. These mortgage companies are reaping what they have sowed. It sucks, but a correction had to take place at some point and guess what, that point just arrived.
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post #31 of 146
EVERYONE's stock is bombing big time, even now watching the Stocks app on my iPhone I can see them dropping more and more every 20 minutes - it's all cascading because the U.S. government can't make a decision without consulting farm animals, and the penny pinchers are running scared.

Apple just dropped another 1% (-14.19% @ $110.04). Easily the largest of the companies I'm watching, but even Amazon (who was rising and holding during the Lehman Bros fall) are down 5.57%

A good time to buy if you have cash stuffed under the mattress.
post #32 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fat Phil View Post

EVERYONE's stock is bombing big time, even now watching the Stocks app on my iPhone I can see them dropping more and more every 20 minutes - it's all cascading because the U.S. government can't make a decision without consulting farm animals, and the penny pinchers are running scared.

Apple just dropped another 1% (-14.19% @ $110.04). Easily the largest of the companies I'm watching, but even Amazon (who was rising and holding during the Lehman Bros fall) are down 5.57%

A good time to buy if you have cash stuffed under the mattress.

Fat Phil, I assume you want Phil Fulmer fired? I do too. If not, then sorry about the comment.

Nice call on the farm animal take. That is about the truth. No one wants their finger prints on this so when it doesn't work, they can point the finger.
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post #33 of 146
On August 4 in the Comments to this blog I referenced the coming global depression and its disastrous impact on AAPL's stock price. On that day AAPL closed at $153.23 and, of course, I was roundly trashed by many who seemed to misinterpret my comments as being in some way anti-Apple. As I write the stock is at $110.

Given that I use Apple products for all my computing needs that's not quite right, but no matter.

Let me reiterate what I wrote then. In a depression, no one needs a new computer. Worse, no one needs an expensive computer and, yes, for all the studies that prove that Macs are, feature-for-feature, cheaper than their Windows competition, a buyer in a tough economy tends to focus on price. When you can get a new Dell for what - $400? - even a $599 Mini with no screen looks costly by comparison, and hang the features.

Apple may well introduce a more inexpensive line for the holidays. With rising component prices and falling margins this will be a further negative for the stock and as PE ratios fall across the world and bankruptcies rise, the stock is simply either very high risk or a very long term hold. For the risk averse, cash remains king.

Disclosure: No AAPL position. 100% of position sold for $180 in July.

By the way, banning short sales in AAPL will simply accelerate the drop in the stock price as hedge funds sell their positions to fund accelerating withdrawals. Usual unintended consequence of populist politics.
post #34 of 146
Why listen to her? Morgan Stanely has run their business into the ground. Maybe they need to stop "guessing" on the market, and turn their attention to fixing their own business model.

$77 down to $21.
post #35 of 146
...yes, it's "not fair," but:
- There is no liquidity in the market right now... anywhere. Many investors (private, corporate and sovereign) are looking to squeeze every last drop of cash from their portfolios just to remain solvent (hence all the selling).
- Apple isn't going to go out of business, but their stock will suffer from macro conditions for the foreseeable future. If you buy, caveat emptor.
- The downward trend everywhere isn't due to "speculating" on the market, or "short-selling." It's, "I'm a stupid investor who got caught with my pants down and now I'm just trying to keep my shirt." In this case it especially sucks because it's large financial firms running around without any pants, and we're being subjected to news footage of bottomless 70+ year olds (companies, that is) with all their junk hanging out. And it's gross.
- Is it illegal to be that stupid? Perhaps it should be, but legislating against low-IQ behavior might carry unintended consequences...

Free advice (that you're free to disregard): People will not be buying apple stock (or any other stock) until banks stop crashing. You will know that banks are in decent shape when the interbank rate resembles historic norms. Interbank rates will trend back to normal when US Treasury bonds start yielding a % even remotely close to the inflation rate (not cause-effect, but the two should trend together in some order). And none of this is happening right now. In fact, as of this morning they're all still heading in the other direction. <--- not to scare anyone, but we should all remember that this is a generational-level recession/correction, akin to a 100-year flood, and not a speedbump... people should invest accordingly. Right now US Treasury bond yields are such that people are *willingly and knowingly* buying at a real-loss in the 1-3 year periods. If anyone thought aapl (or any other stock, bond, money-market fund, etc) would do better, don't you think they would? ...or are they that stupid...? At current rates, the "stuff money into hole" investment portfolio is only barely outperformed by the treasury (and it's beating aapl, sorry to say)...
I have seen the future, and it's my mac mini server. I love that little guy...
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I have seen the future, and it's my mac mini server. I love that little guy...
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post #36 of 146
So they say the consumer environment isn't good but they haven't based it on any REAL numbers from Apple. Considering the number of people I know that have bought Macs, iPods and iPhones I don't think the average Mac consumer is as affected by this than the likes of Dell and HP. Of course when Apple has their conference call and report great growth and increase revenue, again, I'm sure they'll all just say "Oh they can't do it again" and drive the price down some more. I just love the fact that we live in a hear-say based investment environment rather than a merit and numbers based environment (rolls eyes).
post #37 of 146
I do not want Apple to engage in any race-to-the-bottom price wars. We need those high profit margins to fund the R&D and the great added value such as Apple Store geniuses.

I want Apple to continue to focus on the total cost of ownership of its great products. That value includes the time I don't have to put into maintaining a PC's health, or piecing together files from multiple 3rd party crudware, etc. That is where I get value from Apple, not on the day of purchase.

Many of the most important software concepts were invented in the 70s and forgotten in the 80s.

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Many of the most important software concepts were invented in the 70s and forgotten in the 80s.

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post #38 of 146
How many reports and articles are written explaining how Apple usually bucks the overall market trends? How they can still gain market share (make money), even when the overall computer market is slumping? And yet we still have these buffoons downgrading Apple, because "of weak consumer spending". It amazes me, how they are able to manipulate the market in such a manner. Personally I could care less about stocks and the market, and would love to see Apple's stock completely collapse and Apple buy it all back and privatize itself. It has the cash to do it and have plenty leftover to sustain itself through a depression.
Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #39 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thomaspin View Post

On August 4 in the Comments to this blog I referenced the coming global depression and its disastrous impact on AAPL's stock price. On that day AAPL closed at $153.23 and, of course, I was roundly trashed by many who seemed to misinterpret my comments as being in some way anti-Apple. As I write the stock is at $110.

Given that I use Apple products for all my computing needs that's not quite right, but no matter.

Let me reiterate what I wrote then. In a depression, no one needs a new computer. Worse, no one needs an expensive computer and, yes, for all the studies that prove that Macs are, feature-for-feature, cheaper than their Windows competition, a buyer in a tough economy tends to focus on price. When you can get a new Dell for what - $400? - even a $599 Mini with no screen looks costly by comparison, and hang the features.

Apple may well introduce a more inexpensive line for the holidays. With rising component prices and falling margins this will be a further negative for the stock and as PE ratios fall across the world and bankruptcies rise, the stock is simply either very high risk or a very long term hold. For the risk averse, cash remains king.

Disclosure: No AAPL position. 100% of position sold for $180 in July.

By the way, banning short sales in AAPL will simply accelerate the drop in the stock price as hedge funds sell their positions to fund accelerating withdrawals. Usual unintended consequence of populist politics.

You seem to be discounting the impact of the average Mac consumer. Poeple who want a "good deal" aren't going to buy Apple - ever. Regardless of the economy and I don't know of anyone who thinks well, the economy is doing well so I can spend more even though I'm making the same thing I made yesterday. Do you really base your purchases on what your retirement plan is doing? I don't and I don't know of any one else who does either... The only people this impacts are the people being forclosed on (let's just be honest here - probably not that many people being kicked out of their homes were buying massive amounts of Apple products) and the people who play the market (again, not that high of a % of people). Most of the investments come from 401Ks and, as I said, most people don't buy based on the current status of their 401k. I suppose if you're about to retire it might impact your purchasing habits but if you're younger than 55 you really shouldn't be worried about what the market is doing today. Just for reference - the DOW is over 35% higher today than what it bottomed out at in 2003 and yet this is the worst? A 35% INCREASE over 5 years? That's pretty good if you ask me...
post #40 of 146
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gee4orce View Post

Isn't it about time they banned short selling of ALL stocks ? These analysts suddenly predict lowered profits for a stock, lower their estimates, surprise surprise, the stock falls. Someone is making a killing here, and it stinks.

No, it is not. What does need to be addressed is the process by which short selling occurs. Specifically (thought not in technical financial language), people have been able to short a stock without putting up any money behind the short sale. THIS is where people got into trouble.

Short selling is a natural part of the market IF done properly.

This is a bad time in the US stock market and IF we don't get this handled quickly, foreign money will leave. THAT will be a big disaster and APPL will look great at $15 per share. Anyone who is not the least familiar with a depression needs to do a little reading.

Relax, be patient, and remember: buy low, sell high. Think of this as a big sale right now....we may get more discounts in the future yet Apple has lots on their side even without being debt free and lots of cash.
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