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Window for rumored October 14 Apple event closing

post #1 of 74
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With less than six days to go before Tuesday, October 14th and not a peep from Apple, chances of a much-rumored media event on that day to introduce new Mac notebook offerings is growing slim.

A lot of emphasis has been placed on next Tuesday as the day Apple might summon the media to another special event ever since Daring Fireball author John Gruber predicted in passing that October 14th would serve as a launch pad for the company's next-generation notebook offerings.

While introductions on that date remain possible, history would suggest that the window of opportunity for Apple to do so in a media-filled forum is rapidly closing. Taking a historical look back at Apple's surprise media events (below) reveals that only once in the last four years has the company issued invites to the media less than a week before the event was scheduled to take place.

That one exception took place in October of 2005, when Apple gave a select few in the media a five day notice about a special East Coast gathering in New York City that saw the unveiling of several professional Macs, as well as the the first version of the Aperture post production photography software. In all other cases, the company offered between 7 and 9 days notice (and in one case nearly a month's notice).

The window of opportunity is not completely closed, however. Several scenarios for an announcement next week still remain. The company could simply provide reduced notice of an event next Tuesday or issue invites today for an event on Wednesday. Alternatively, it could elect to introduce redesigned MacBook and MacBook Pros next week without a formal presentation.

Also: see a sound argument from AppleInsider reader chadisawesome as to why October 14th was likely never a day Apple planned to host a product announcement.

Apple has defied expectations of a special media event at least once in the past. For example, it introduced the first 13-inch MacBook -- complete with a fresh industrial design -- in May of 2006 with little fanfare, posting the announcement to its website alongside a standard press release.

Should Apple fail to introduce new notebooks next week, it would seemingly be in a race against the clock with the holiday shopping season rapidly approaching. The company would have approximately five weeks to introduce new models, fill pent-up demand, enter into a supply and demand equilibrium, and fill inventories around the world before the post Thanksgiving shopping bonanza kicks into play.

Historical Apple events and invite lead times

Sept 7, 2005 (Invite: 9 days before)
1000 songs in your pocket: first-gen iPod nano

Oct 12, 2005 (Invite: 8 days before)
One more thing: first video iPod, iMac with iSight, iTunes 6

Oct 19, 2005 (Invite: 5 days before)
Appleā€™s latest pro innovations: Aperture, PowerBooks with higher-res displays, Power Mac G5 Quad & Power Mac G5 Dual

Feb 28, 2006 (Invite: 7 days before)
Fun new products from Apple: iPod Hi-Fi, Mac mini Core Duo, leather iPod cases

March 20, 2007 (Invite: 26 days before)
Lights, Camera, Apple: Final Cut Studio 2, Final Cut Server

Sept 12, 2006 (Invite: 7 days before)
It's Showtime: Apple TV, second-gen iPod nano, updated video iPods, second-gen iPod shuffle, iTunes 7

Aug 7, 2007 (Invite: 7 days before)
Mac announcements: Aluminum iMacs, iLife '08, iWork '08, .Mac upgrade

Sept 5, 2007 (Invite: 8 days before)
The beat goes on: iPod touch, WiFi iTunes Store, iPod nano fatboy (3G), iPod classic, iTunes 7.4

March 6, 2008 (Invite: 7 days before)
iPhone software roadmap: iPhone SDK, iPhone 2.0 and App Store

Sept 9, 2008 (Invite: 7 days before)
Let's Rock: fourth-gen iPod nano, second-gen iPod touch, iTunes 8, HD TV shows
post #2 of 74
"Waiting for a MacBook Pro," a play by Samuel Beckett.
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post #3 of 74
it's getting to the point where they're letting customers down now, it plays havoc with people's budgeting when they have literally zero idea what is around the corner and when, at the very least they could have started an online countdown if they're announcing them next week, and if they're not then.. damn.. how they expect to move those completely out of date and overpriced notebooks is beyond me.
post #4 of 74
I'm buying a Macbook Pro next week either way. Had I known they take this long to get out the new models I'd bought one two months ago.
post #5 of 74
Wow, it's data like that (event and announcement lead times) that give Apple fans their reputation.
post #6 of 74
As this article points out, the whole Oct. 14 date originated from John Gruber over at Daring Fireball in a post right after the September iPod event. And since then, it's the date that everyone seems to be clinging to. My question is: has this date come from any other sources? There seems to be all kind of circumstantial evidence that new MacBooks are coming sometime soon, but as far as I can tell, October 14 has come only from one source who, while one of the most insightful commentators on matters Macintosh, is not necessarily known for predictions and rumours. Does anyone else know if there has been any other firm sources to corroborate that date, or is this all based around one man's word?

Secondly, Machead 99. I agree it's frustrating waiting. I would have bought a new laptop a month or so ago had I not had expectations of something new coming soon. But the fact is that most people outside of the avid "Mac heads" don't follow rumours and if they are going to buy a Mac (or whatever else) they'll base their decision on what is available when they go to the store or look at Apple's web site. That is precisely how Apple is able to keep selling its "out of date and overpriced" laptops. If they had a countdown clock, it would pretty much bring sales of the current models to a halt. Yes, it's hard to plan. But that is exactly Apple's strategy and has been as long as Jobs has been at the helm.
post #7 of 74
It would be interesting to know what the current MacBook/MacBook Pro current inventory is. If it is still high, they might delay announcing new models by a week or two -- if no announcement is made on 14th October, there might be a significant uptick in purchases due to pent-up demand and people unwilling to wait any longer.
post #8 of 74
This is a bad time to try and launch a new product, even if it is an Apple. The financial meltdown is stealing the thunder of any news story. While their sales will get a boost from a new line of laptops, it might seem a little ostentatious to trot out a new set of luxury lifestyle products when the economy is melting.
post #9 of 74
Apple has always done things this way ever since Steve Jobs came back, and they've been making money.

Also, I wonder whether it's a good idea to release products during these crazy market fluctuations. The bailout bill was just passed a few days ago. Half of Apple's advertising is free press, and the press is focused on the stock market and credit tightness right now. Pretty soon companies will be releasing their quarterly earnings, people will realize that the sky is not falling, and Apple can release their new computers (if they have them).
post #10 of 74
yeah, this is taking way too long.
post #11 of 74
This was questioned last night as well. As both articles say, the "window" is closing and Apple "technically" should have sent out invitations.

LINK: http://www.macblogz.com/2008/10/07/i...ng-shot-rumor/

Event, or no event, Apple's upcoming notebook releases are going to incorporate some major innovation.
post #12 of 74
some people have been questioning this MacBook rumour during this economic situation, but I would say it's an even worse decision to not introduce a new MacBook now. I mean, come on, only new iPods for this holiday season?
post #13 of 74
You do have a point on that, JBridges. There was no confirm statement from anywhere else about that date in particular. People just started to assume that it would be the day and now we are less than a week away and still no summon for an event from Apple. They still can put the macs out without an event but that would be weird due to the nature of what is coming.

Maybe we wont see the macs next week at all and yes, it will be frustrating, but Apple should/must hurry. I'm really looking forward to see how the new macbooks and macbook pros will look and perform as well as I'm looking forward to buy one.

In the end, we only have to wait some days to see what happens. If nothing happens, a new date will become a rumor and so on and so forth, unless there's some official statement from Apple.

It's starting to be tiring this long wait, mainly because we see everyday new PC's poping up from several brands, most of them having new built in tech, that we also want to see in our macs.
post #14 of 74
I don't think there will be an event. I just think that they will be silently updated.
post #15 of 74
I wouldn't be surprised if in retaliation for the media releasing product leaks, they don't hold media events anymore and just release products without fanfare.
post #16 of 74
The economy situation can't be an excuse for much longer. It will take (quite) sometime to things get balanced again and no one is going to wait for that to happen to release new products mainly because you don't know when things will get stable again.
post #17 of 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by ianmac47 View Post

This is a bad time to try and launch a new product, even if it is an Apple. The financial meltdown is stealing the thunder of any news story. While their sales will get a boost from a new line of laptops, it might seem a little ostentatious to trot out a new set of luxury lifestyle products when the economy is melting.

This is a tough one to call. How does an economy revive itself?... with consumer spending. That said, this downturn is of epic proportions.

Perhaps Apple will sit this until after the elections in November and when spirits are hopefully higher in January at MacWorld. Apple may also have good numbers from iPhone revenues, that they can delay new products until the new year.
post #18 of 74
I think it is the turmoil about the economy. People just don't want to hear such news when there are financial troubles brewing. And I like the point about free advertising mentioned above.

I think Apple should at least wait for one quiet week after an apparent "bottom" of the markets.
post #19 of 74
After the ho-hum results of the ipod release maybe they have decided just to release them like every other company out there.
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post #20 of 74
while it seems the rumors that surface lately have more bite to them, let's remember that until confirmed by Apple they are just that rumors.

i, for one, am hoping something is announced 14 ottobre, but i'm not holding my breath. only one source penned that date for an announcement. Apple has not even said that an announcement of any kind is forthcoming. it's logical (and obvious) that they'll do something for the holiday season, but the same could've been said for the back-to-school season, too.
post #21 of 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by DeaPeaJay View Post

Wow, it's data like that (event and announcement lead times) that give Apple fans their reputation.

Exactly my thoughts!
post #22 of 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by boatracer View Post

After the ho-hum results of the ipod release maybe they have decided just to release them like every other company out there.

I guess it's possible

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post #23 of 74
Monday is a holiday.

When there is a holiday on a monday, apple has had it's events on that wednesday, which would put it at the 15th. still 7 days away. I expect an announcement today for wednesdays announcement.

If not, it will be next tuesday for sure.
post #24 of 74
It's more than likely that it's the current financial situation that is at the root of this. They are either waiting until after the good news report on their financial earnings, or they are dickering about whether they can absorb an even larger hit in the margins so as to offer the new product at more attractive prices.

If the rumour is true that they are about to enter a lower price segment of the market with a brand new device (iBook, iTablet, etc.), then there is even more reason not to just throw the announcement out there when the stock price is below a hundred bucks.
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post #25 of 74
I live in Toronto, and the Apple store here has been under renovations for about a month or so? Are any other stores under renovations?

If so, they could be renovating for a big launch that not only includes apple products, but the stores as well.

And for everyone out there who is complaining that it has been too long, and who will be pissed if nothing happens on the 14th... remember.... it's the apple community who have created this hype. Not Apple. So you only have yourselves to blame if nothing happens, and you've been waiting eons.

On the flip side, I can't wait for the new macbook pro....... but I'm not going to lose any sleep over it.
post #26 of 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by LoganHunter View Post

They still can put the macs out without an event but that would be weird due to the nature of what is coming.

But would it be that weird? We don't know what the nature of what is coming may be. (And I take a HUGE grain of salt here. Think back to the run up to keynotes and the expectations of "what is coming.) And other than the now annual September iPod announcement, how often has Apple held an event for the announce of upgraded products outside of keynote at Macworld or WWDC? (I know it's not without precedent and is begging for someone to draw up a list comparing which products got events versus others that just magically appeared on a Tuesday after the yellow sticky appeared on the Apple Store for a few hours.)
post #27 of 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by chadisawesome View Post

Monday is a holiday.

When there is a holiday on a monday, apple has had it's events on that wednesday, which would put it at the 15th.

This is a very true and sound argument.

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post #28 of 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by Machead99 View Post

it's getting to the point where they're letting customers down now, it plays havoc with people's budgeting when they have literally zero idea what is around the corner and when, at the very least they could have started an online countdown if they're announcing them next week, and if they're not then.. damn.. how they expect to move those completely out of date and overpriced notebooks is beyond me.

That is one secret of Apple's high margins, it can sell the same notebook for exactly the same price for the full product cycle (which might be on average eight months). No other PC manufacturer can do this because there is intense price competition in the hardware sector.

The lack of competition and the thus very much reduced number of available configurations however help to create a high-price used equipment market.
post #29 of 74
Maybe somebody at Apple realized that the shuttle was going up on the 14th. I doubt a normal launch would crowd Apple's announcement out of media attention, but given the shuttle's track record there is always the possibility of a disaster that would dominate the news.

Sounds a bit cold hearted, but we are talking marketing here.

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post #30 of 74
Jobs said (post 9/11?) that the way to make Apple profitable was to innovate. Seems to me that the market conditions are being overblown. Not sure if the economy is in a meltdown or not - yes, massive drop in portfolios yet we've seen this before between 2000 and 2008.

Launching now might be the best thing for Apple - instead of over the top demand and swamping the production process, there might be a slower yet consistent adoption rate. Seems most people are going to sit on the side and wait yet there are many in this economy that feel any pain (ah, they are smart, have lots of cash flow, and have taken a long, long, term approach to the market knowing full well that what goes down will go up again).

Nice to see APPL bounce plus $3 today!
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post #31 of 74
Even if this unveiling comes on the 21st or the 28th, will Apple have compromised itself that much? The start of the holiday buying season still lies ahead by four weeks rather than six. I also agree that if there's no advance word by now, then no event will happen on the 14th. A rather broad family refresh like they did with the iPod is what they will be doing with the MacBooks. So an event at least as big as that one should be on tap.
post #32 of 74
chadisawesome is right.

The most likely days for a product launch are now are Wednesday 15 October or Tuesday 21 October.
post #33 of 74
Blu-ray support would be nice.
post #34 of 74
I think they will have an event whether they are released on the 14th or not. Why would they have events for things like Final Cut Studio and not a new notebook lineup?

On another note, how long does it normally take for Apple to send the new products to stores once they have been announced? Does it take a couple of days? Do they ship them ahead of time so the store has them for that day? If the stores has them sooner than later wouldn't they know when something is coming? I am sure an employee would tell.

I just got a new MBP and on the 14th I would of had it for 41 days. The Best Buy return policy on it is 45 days. I hope they come on the 14th.
post #35 of 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nordstrodamus View Post

Maybe somebody at Apple realized that the shuttle was going up on the 14th. I doubt a normal launch would crowd Apple's announcement out of media attention, but given the shuttle's track record there is always the possibility of a disaster that would dominate the news.

Sounds a bit cold hearted, but we are talking marketing here.

Not that it's really relevant, but ...

No, there's no Shuttle launch on the 14th; it's been postponed to sometime no earlier than February 2009 due to the recent failure on board the Hubble. NASA needs time to have additional hardware for the Hubble checked out and also need to re-plan the space walk sequences.
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post #36 of 74
come on, it's obvious!
remember that these new Macbook are cut out of a solid block of aluminium, leaving no cover for a replacable battery. Apple decides to embed the battery inside of the machines and discovered yesterday that by doing so they are breaking the new EU Batteries Directive! back to the drawing board
post #37 of 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by paulgreen View Post

It would be interesting to know what the current MacBook/MacBook Pro current inventory is. If it is still high, they might delay announcing new models by a week or two -- if no announcement is made on 14th October, there might be a significant uptick in purchases due to pent-up demand and people unwilling to wait any longer.

[LEFT]


I'm lucky enough to have a neighbor who is the manager of our local Apple Store. Word from
him is that current inventory of MacBook/Pro's is "none"
post #38 of 74
Looking at http://www.newegg.com , I see that they are out of stock for ALL Apple Laptops except the Macbook Air. Also, the University I attend has started a close out sale for Macbooks, dropping the already low educational pricing down another ~$200 due to what they said was going to be an update of Macbooks around Oct 14th. I don't know what, if anything, they might know, but these signs seem to be pointing in a hopeful direction.
post #39 of 74
[QUOTE=Virgil-TB2;1319051]It's more than likely that it's the current financial situation that is at the root of this. They are either waiting until after the good news report on their financial earnings, or they are dickering about whether they can absorb an even larger hit in the margins so as to offer the new product at more attractive prices.

Apple does change plans based on the economy. They were in the process of opening a new call center and had actually hired people when this announcement came last Thursday -"the project was cancelled due to Economic conditions and improved quality of the product resulting in a reduced volume to the Support lines."
post #40 of 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by Machead99 View Post

it's getting to the point where they're letting customers down now, it plays havoc with people's budgeting when they have literally zero idea what is around the corner and when, at the very least they could have started an online countdown if they're announcing them next week, and if they're not then.. damn.. how they expect to move those completely out of date and overpriced notebooks is beyond me.

It's very interesting how AppleInsider makes all these promises about when and how Apple is going to release new products. And then it turns out not to be true... and somehow it's Apple's fault. Apple is doing what they always have done--selling computers and periodically updating them. They never give advanced notice. If you're frustrated, then at least know who let you down. It wasn't Apple. Several times in the last month, I've talked to someone who spoke with firm authority that there were new laptops being released on October 14th. Each time, I reminded them that it's just a rumor. And each one of them told me flatly that it was going to happen. I'm sure that when I next bump into one of them, they'll be doing the same thing as you. Forgetting that it was the rumor site and their own gullibility that set them up for disappointment. If you're running through the house chasing your brother and you stub your toe on a chair, then remember: it's your fault, and your brother's fault. Please don't blame the chair. Unless you're six.
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