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Jobs responds to outrage over MacBook's missing FireWire - Page 36

post #1401 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

The new 1394b stack will be released in the next version of windows:

"Currently, there are not plans for down-level support
This includes Vista and XP and server releases
Reason for this is a lack of significant OEM demand"

Slide 4

Perhaps you should email him and tell him that there IS significant OEM demand for Firewire and that you don't want to wait for Windows 7 (rumored to be slated for 2009) for FW800 support.

Of course MS promised 1394b support in Vista but at least Win7 isn't far away. If they don't slip, Win7 and FW800 support will even be here before USB3. Wanna bet that USB3 support appears for Vista when it shows up?

"No prioritization has changed
Microsoft strongly supports USB 3.0 (translation: Mr. Handwriting meet Mr. Wall.)
We realize the broad customer base and need for 1394 support (translation: we realized that we could punt on supporting FW800 for Vista and no one really cared)
- No plans to support Hana or Wireless 1394."

Slide 6

Too bad for HANA eh?

nah i don't think i need to tell mr little
seeing as he turned he's obviously quite aware of the issues (more than us i dare say)
plus MS doesn't make the hardware i'm stuck with (due to my investment in software & associated learning curves)
so vista doesn't really interest me either (phew)

yeah i thought u'd like the HANA thing - who was it you were arguing that one with ?

as for the writing on the wall i find the last few slides are most telling
MS seem to be leaving it up to OEMs to bring their items in to be tested
Quote:
As soon as S1600 and S3200 devices are available get
them to Microsofts lab

this could explain why pickup of 1600/3200 isn't as fast as it could
ie no one taking responsibility - the chicken egg thing i talked about

whereas USB 3 being driven by Intel will certainly move forward
because once implemented people will have to upgrade their CPUs regularly (hence Intel's enthusiasm)
to even approach maximum speed... (particularly as media file sizes increase over time)
post #1402 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post


Apple's strategy may not be one you agree with but it does work for Apple and it has more successes than failures under Jobs.

I have a theory about that but it's not for this thread.

Quote:
That is what great companies great and average companies average. A commitment (and good execution) at the top to a focused corporate goal and culture vs market research/spreadsheet driven.

There's something wrong there. IBM is definitely a great company but falls squarely into the market research/spreadsheet hole. In business you cannot separate culture from market research and spreadsheets. Some companies are able to gloss things up and seem cultural but the real backbone of the companies that survive is spreadsheets and market research.

One of the things that has made Apple what it is today is good financial management. - Spreadsheet Heaven.
post #1403 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post


Sure, he does a lot of misdirection and fluffing stuff up. But the point remains that the corporate culture at Apple is not market research driven. There's obviously a big market for an xMac but it doesn't fit their overall product strategy because it would reduce overall profitability and trash their line of AIOs that they wish to preserve.

Sometimes Jobs pushes 'misdirection' and 'fluffing up' right off the scale. Who could forget him beating his chest and telling the world Apple was going to go after the other 95% of the PC market only to sit back and release products that are at the other end of the spectrum to where that 95% is sold?

They wanted 1% of the mobile phone market in a year but then proceeded to price the iPhone out of the range of its target customers resulting in some very quick backtracking.

Steve, why do you bother with such nonsense? If you really want that other 95% you know what you have to do.
post #1404 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

Yes, lets wait and see. But I doubt that the MB isn't meeting expectations for two reasons:

1) XMas isn't here yet. It's hard to "not meet expecations" for a quarter that essentially hasn't happened yet. We haven't even had Black Friday yet.
2) While XMas is the important sales quarter, back to school is the other important quarter for the new MB and that hasn't happened yet either.

So to find out the new MB really is doing will require you to wait until the results are known for Q1 and Q4 2009.

While long term MacBook performance remains to be seen at least launch expectations should have been met:

Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

A slowing global economy had little impact on Apple's computer business last month, as consumers willingly plunked down their cash for the company's new MacBook offerings, helping to drive Mac sales up more than 25 percent year-over-year.

According to data from market research firm NPD, which was relayed in a research note from Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, sales of Macs during the month of October were up 28 percent compared to the same month one year ago. They benefitted largely from the October 14th launch of the Unibody MacBook (review) and MacBook Pro (review), which began shipping immediately thereafter.
...
post #1405 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by otwayross View Post

nah i don't think i need to tell mr little
seeing as he turned he's obviously quite aware of the issues (more than us i dare say)
plus MS doesn't make the hardware i'm stuck with (due to my investment in software & associated learning curves)
so vista doesn't really interest me either (phew)

Well, you certainly cannot point to MS as some bastion of FW support if they wont even bother putting thier new 1394b stack into Vista as a SP as originally planned. Sticking it in there is trivial given that Win7 is based on Vista.

Quote:
yeah i thought u'd like the HANA thing - who was it you were arguing that one with ?

Avon B7.

Quote:
as for the writing on the wall i find the last few slides are most telling
MS seem to be leaving it up to OEMs to bring their items in to be tested

this could explain why pickup of 1600/3200 isn't as fast as it could
ie no one taking responsibility - the chicken egg thing i talked about

Which is why Apple appears to be abandoning FW for the consumer line.

Just like MS treating it as a legacy interface not even worthy enough to bother with for Vista. There's no OEM demand for any of FW's current (FW800) or future enhancements over FW400 for support in Vista. As a consumer desktop standard FW is dead if no one cares about anything but FW400 for a declining number of camcorders.
post #1406 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avon B7 View Post

Sometimes Jobs pushes 'misdirection' and 'fluffing up' right off the scale. Who could forget him beating his chest and telling the world Apple was going to go after the other 95% of the PC market only to sit back and release products that are at the other end of the spectrum to where that 95% is sold?

Link.

Quote:
They wanted 1% of the mobile phone market in a year but then proceeded to price the iPhone out of the range of its target customers resulting in some very quick backtracking.

Yes, the target was 1%...or more precisely 20% of the smartphone market (5% and growing). The iPhone even before the price drops sold very well...to the desired target market: smart phone purchasers for which $300+ was no big deal.

There are a lot of folks that will pay that and you see that today with the massive iPhone sales. The iPhone still isn't cheap and it never will be.

They targetted a growing market segment that had a lot of so-so competitors and no one in a secure dominant position. Symbian is very beatable in the high end smartphone market. Apple has already beat Rim and met it's 10M goal and will likely meet it's 1% goal (12.8M) by the end of CY08.

If Apple ever wants a big numbers bump they can finally launch in China.

That 1% number is both real and deceptive. They mean they want to take over the "real" smartphone market that has high margins and leave the Symbian the low end. Kill Palm and marginalize RIM and MS to where the upper end smart phone market looks like the MP3 player market.

Quote:
Steve, why do you bother with such nonsense? If you really want that other 95% you know what you have to do.

He doesn't want that 95%. Are you joking? Apple succeeds by being an elite brand with fat margins to fuel even more excellent products.
post #1407 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

Well, you certainly cannot point to MS as some bastion of FW support if they wont even bother putting thier new 1394b stack into Vista as a SP as originally planned. Sticking it in there is trivial given that Win7 is based on Vista.

Which is why Apple appears to be abandoning FW for the consumer line.

Just like MS treating it as a legacy interface not even worthy enough to bother with for Vista. There's no OEM demand for any of FW's current (FW800) or future enhancements over FW400 for support in Vista. As a consumer desktop standard FW is dead if no one cares about anything but FW400 for a declining number of camcorders.

yes but that's the point entirely... with MS they don't have to be a bastion of support
because the majority of laptops in the 1000+ range (including small form factor ones)
are equipped with PCI Express slots which means these conversations / threads never have to occur
because each user can choose his/her connection of choice (Esata, more USB2, FW400, FW800 etc)
and this will continue into PCI Express 2 for those that want USB3

...and yes i should look for some statistical links to support my "majority claim" \
except that it's hard because no one feels the need to do that kind of study
since there's so much choice available in terms of hardware on the MS / Linux platform
(but i'll look anyway)

whereas those of us who have chosen the Apple platform have to pay over $2000 for that 'privilege'
and there is no support for this choice (or any other) on a notebook under 2k or any consumer platform in the apple range
(i'm putting the mac pro as errr... pro)

and freedom of choice is certainly an advantage of the MS operating system
which many users are now noticing...

previously it was, "MS is ok but Apple is better and more technologically advanced"
now that we're getting diversification of technology we're realising
"Apple has a better OS, but once I go down that route I'm stuck with their hardware choices"
whereas previously their hardware was just generally better
now it's got better build quality (the debate can begin) but certain limits are being noticed (in this case connectivity)

and given the excellent article that you made me aware of
the trouble with SJ is that he's a total live wire - which leads to interesting and sometimes very good results
but he's quick to change his mind, even go back on his "word"
all well known to those who have followed the company for years
but not so much to all the recent switchers (who are the majority of purchasers these days accoring to some on this thread)

which is why I'm sure that any thinking business
may feel the need to take a bit of a distance
post #1408 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

Link.

No link should be needed for this one. Apple and Jobs have used the reference at various times over the last eight years. How could you forget this?

Quote:
Yes, the target was 1%...or more precisely 20% of the smartphone market (5% and growing). The iPhone even before the price drops sold very well...to the desired target market: smart phone purchasers for which $300+ was no big deal.

There are a lot of folks that will pay that and you see that today with the massive iPhone sales. The iPhone still isn't cheap and it never will be.

Where to start? Apple never willingly reduces the prices of its products after introduction (even if the product is very long in the tooth and not competitive - Mac Mini). It's in their genes. For them to reduce prices things have to look pretty grim. For them to reduce prices by $200 means that things were looking worse than pretty grim. I'd say sales were not performing well within Apple's expectations. Hence the price cut. This for a product that was probably the most hyped in the company's history and just weeks after going on sale. For such a product just satisfying pent up demand should have given them more than enough nice vibrations for three plus months. To make matters worse Apple riled its best customers (those that buy without flinching, on nothing but hype) by cutting the price and taking too long to decide how early adopters would be handled. In the end, all they got were vouchers to buy other Apple products. This is the genius of Steve Jobs in all its glory. You would have thought the Cube lesson had been well learnt. A PR nightmare.

$300+ for a smartphone with no carrier subsidy, an exclusive carrier and forced data plans as part of a two year deal was completely the opposite: a very big deal. Moreso, as it had so many shortcomings for business users (that in some ways have been addressed in iPhone 3G).


Quote:
He doesn't want that 95%. Are you joking? Apple succeeds by being an elite brand with fat margins to fuel even more excellent products.

Since when do you need fat margins to fuel new product design? You can fuel the same designs by reducing margins and increasing volume sales. That way it's even better as you eat away at your competitors market share. That's another lesson Apple hasn't learnt very well. That's where a lot of the 95% is and Apple shows no signs at all of going there so they might as well stop spouting off about it because they run the risk of people not taking what they say seriously.

Apple Special 'invitation only' Events have been everything but special lately and they run the risk of boring people if they don't get their act together.

As for being 'elite'. I think not! You yourself claim that Apple's key demographic for one of its top selling products is students!

They have some high-end, low volume gear that may be considered 'elite' but perhaps with the exception of the iPhone, not much else.

As for the iPhone ever being cheap. Believe me it will happen. Nokia will see to it that Apple has to reduce prices to remain competitive. Apple is the minnow swimming in the shark infested mobile phone waters. And Nokia is the great white shark of that world.
post #1409 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avon B7 View Post

No link should be needed for this one. Apple and Jobs have used the reference at various times over the last eight years. How could you forget this?

The reason for the link is to look at the source material that you think supports your position. In this case, it was to make sure you meant the switcher campaign.

Which worked by the way. It does NOT mean that Apple wants 95% of the market or to take over from Microsoft. Just that they wanted the cream of windows market...the ones with deeper pockets than the rest.

Quote:
Where to start? Apple never willingly reduces the prices of its products after introduction (even if the product is very long in the tooth and not competitive - Mac Mini). It's in their genes. For them to reduce prices things have to look pretty grim. For them to reduce prices by $200 means that things were looking worse than pretty grim. I'd say sales were not performing well within Apple's expectations. Hence the price cut.

Yah right, because there weren't people lined up to buy the thing and Apple didn't sell 270,000 in the first 30 hours. Sales must have been "grim" to have caused the iPhone price reduction.

Or maybe, the price drop was to stimulate more X-Mas sales at $399 as stated. The iPhone margins were STILL huge at $399 given that AT&T was revenue sharing.

Grim? What planet do you live on?

Quote:
This for a product that was probably the most hyped in the company's history and just weeks after going on sale. For such a product just satisfying pent up demand should have given them more than enough nice vibrations for three plus months.

June 29 to September 5th. 2 months. They were on track to sell 1M iPhones by end of September according to their press release.

Quote:
To make matters worse Apple riled its best customers (those that buy without flinching, on nothing but hype) by cutting the price and taking too long to decide how early adopters would be handled. In the end, all they got were vouchers to buy other Apple products. This is the genius of Steve Jobs in all its glory. You would have thought the Cube lesson had been well learnt. A PR nightmare.

So much a nightmare that they just kicked RIM's ass. Yea and verily the iPhone was a PR nightmare and a dismal failure.

Quote:
$300+ for a smartphone with no carrier subsidy, an exclusive carrier and forced data plans as part of a two year deal was completely the opposite: a very big deal. Moreso, as it had so many shortcomings for business users (that in some ways have been addressed in iPhone 3G).

Tell that to the 500-700K customers that purchased the iPhone prior to the price drop.

And no need to damn them with faint praise on the business side. They're only #1 in JD Power's business user satisfaction. Besides, it wasn't 3G but the 2.0 version of the OS.

http://www.ipodobserver.com/story/37784

In "some" ways addressed. Right. They only beat RIM 778 to 703 out of a posible score of 1000.

Quote:
Since when do you need fat margins to fuel new product design?

Since when did I write that? Never. What I said that they had fat margins which they use to fuel cool new products. Not that it was the ONLY way to fund new products.

Quote:
You can fuel the same designs by reducing margins and increasing volume sales. That way it's even better as you eat away at your competitors market share.

Yes, it's working great for Dell. And Apple has both fat margins AND industry leading growth.

Gee, that seems even better than even better.

Quote:
That's another lesson Apple hasn't learnt very well. That's where a lot of the 95% is and Apple shows no signs at all of going there so they might as well stop spouting off about it because they run the risk of people not taking what they say seriously.

Right, because Jobs and Apple is at some risk of not being taken seriously. AFTER they just kicked Palm, MS and RIM's ass in the already competitive smart phone market to become the #1 phone.

Quote:
Apple Special 'invitation only' Events have been everything but special lately and they run the risk of boring people if they don't get their act together.

Yes, because the new MB/MBP and 28% YOY sales increase was a yawner.

Quote:
As for being 'elite'. I think not! You yourself claim that Apple's key demographic for one of its top selling products is students!

Students that can pony up $1300 for a laptop. Yep, that's pretty elite given that many laptops run $500 and netbooks cheaper than that.

Quote:
They have some high-end, low volume gear that may be considered 'elite' but perhaps with the exception of the iPhone, not much else.

Right. Because you say so it must be true. Never mind that everyone else considers Apple to be a premium brand with prices to match.

Quote:
As for the iPhone ever being cheap. Believe me it will happen. Nokia will see to it that Apple has to reduce prices to remain competitive. Apple is the minnow swimming in the shark infested mobile phone waters. And Nokia is the great white shark of that world.

Right. Just like Microsoft/Dell/HP is the great white shark of the PC world.

At $199 the iPhone is already "cheap" for the consumer but AT&T kicks back a nice amount to Apple. It wont ever be a free phone.
post #1410 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by otwayross View Post

yes but that's the point entirely... with MS they don't have to be a bastion of support because the majority of laptops in the 1000+ range (including small form factor ones) are equipped withPCI Express slots which means these conversations / threads never have to occur because each user can choose his/her connection of choice (Esata, more USB2, FW400, FW800 etc) and this will continue into PCI Express 2 for those that want USB3

Yes, because devices without OS support are very useful...yea and verily, card makers do ship with thier own drivers but the fact that there is no OEM demand for FW800 for Vista is very telling. HP, Dell, etc do not really give a shit about FW. It's just another check box and FW400 for legacy devices is fine.

Quote:
whereas those of us who have chosen the Apple platform have to pay over $2000 for that 'privilege' and there is no support for this choice (or any other) on a notebook under 2k or any consumer platform in the apple range (i'm putting the mac pro as errr... pro)

So don't. Get a Dell or HP for less.

Quote:
and freedom of choice is certainly an advantage of the MS operating system
which many users are now noticing...

So many users that the OSX market share is growing and not shrinking.

Quote:
previously it was, "MS is ok but Apple is better and more technologically advanced"
now that we're getting diversification of technology we're realising "Apple has a better OS, but once I go down that route I'm stuck with their hardware choices" whereas previously their hardware was just generally better now it's got better build quality (the debate can begin) but certain limits are being noticed (in this case connectivity)

Yes, more and more folks are "stuck" with Apple hardware that they intentionally choose.

Quote:
and given the excellent article that you made me aware of
the trouble with SJ is that he's a total live wire - which leads to interesting and sometimes very good results
but he's quick to change his mind, even go back on his "word"
all well known to those who have followed the company for years
but not so much to all the recent switchers (who are the majority of purchasers these days accoring to some on this thread)

Yep, SJ is a lying slacker that rarely makes good on his promises.

Quote:
which is why I'm sure that any thinking business may feel the need to take a bit of a distance

Riiight...
post #1411 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

Yes, because devices without OS support are very useful...yea and verily, card makers do ship with thier own drivers but the fact that there is no OEM demand for FW800 for Vista is very telling. HP, Dell, etc do not really give a shit about FW. It's just another check box and FW400 for legacy devices is fine.

you're arguing the same point sherlock
as i said - they don't have to care... the user can choose what technology they want
HP, Dell etc only have to provide the card slot and belkin or whoever provides the card

Quote:
So don't. Get a Dell or HP for less.

this is most persistent low IQ argument that fanboys like yourself keep coming out with
just stop it, take a break, have a look which forum you're on
and start thinking about why it's not as easy as that
if i was on a system that didn't have me locked in (which is apple's game plan)
do you think i'd care about brand loyalty?

Quote:
So many users that the OSX market share is growing and not shrinking.

in the short term maybe...
if they keep up the path with hardware DRM, increasing prices, gloss only screens
and deleting ports we'll see how fast they grow

Quote:
Yes, more and more folks are "stuck" with Apple hardware that they intentionally choose.

again, following your arguments that most of the new market are switchers
and students at that, let's see how happy they are when they discover that
they can't plug in dad's relatively new DV camcorder
or use their school's / uni / college brand new high end version for that matter
"hey the guy in the apple store told me this was the top of the techno heap???"

notice how wrt the DRM apple didn't warn anyone before a purchase... very good and honest business model right ?

Quote:
Yep, SJ is a lying slacker that rarely makes good on his promises.

no one said that except you... \
you don't have to believe the article that you yourself posted - i thought it was rather well written
but yes i did notice that the authors views weren't always positive towards Mr Jobs
neither were some of his co workers
is that a good or a bad thing - who knows ?
he and Mr Ives have had pretty good results to date...
post #1412 of 1657
interestingly the firewire thread over at macrumors is still alive as well...

this was from one of the most recent posts #2217 which i thought was quite pertinent:

Quote:
I've been disappointed for some time and I think it took the firewire issue to bring it to a head. I have begun the transitions to PC's and it's not as painful as I expected. A few tweaks in Vista (with SP1) and it takes care of most of the "memory hog" issues. Also, it's been really stable. Do I prefer it over OSX? No, but the hardware options are helping me get over it. I can recommend fairly inexpensive laptops to my students and if they don't have firewire they have an expansion card slot so that firewire can be added.

(the disappointment was to do with a question about whether apple is aiming at the
lowest common denominator - and effectively become a prettier dell)
post #1413 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

The reason for the link is to look at the source material that you think supports your position. In this case, it was to make sure you meant the switcher campaign.

Which worked by the way. It does NOT mean that Apple wants 95% of the market or to take over from Microsoft. Just that they wanted the cream of windows market...the ones with deeper pockets than the rest.



Yah right, because there weren't people lined up to buy the thing and Apple didn't sell 270,000 in the first 30 hours. Sales must have been "grim" to have caused the iPhone price reduction.

Or maybe, the price drop was to stimulate more X-Mas sales at $399 as stated. The iPhone margins were STILL huge at $399 given that AT&T was revenue sharing.

Grim? What planet do you live on?




June 29 to September 5th. 2 months. They were on track to sell 1M iPhones by end of September according to their press release.



So much a nightmare that they just kicked RIM's ass. Yea and verily the iPhone was a PR nightmare and a dismal failure.



Tell that to the 500-700K customers that purchased the iPhone prior to the price drop.

And no need to damn them with faint praise on the business side. They're only #1 in JD Power's business user satisfaction. Besides, it wasn't 3G but the 2.0 version of the OS.

http://www.ipodobserver.com/story/37784

In "some" ways addressed. Right. They only beat RIM 778 to 703 out of a posible score of 1000.



Since when did I write that? Never. What I said that they had fat margins which they use to fuel cool new products. Not that it was the ONLY way to fund new products.



Yes, it's working great for Dell. And Apple has both fat margins AND industry leading growth.

Gee, that seems even better than even better.



Right, because Jobs and Apple is at some risk of not being taken seriously. AFTER they just kicked Palm, MS and RIM's ass in the already competitive smart phone market to become the #1 phone.



Yes, because the new MB/MBP and 28% YOY sales increase was a yawner.



Students that can pony up $1300 for a laptop. Yep, that's pretty elite given that many laptops run $500 and netbooks cheaper than that.



Right. Because you say so it must be true. Never mind that everyone else considers Apple to be a premium brand with prices to match.



Right. Just like Microsoft/Dell/HP is the great white shark of the PC world.

At $199 the iPhone is already "cheap" for the consumer but AT&T kicks back a nice amount to Apple. It wont ever be a free phone.

I'm not going to take your post apart chunk by chunk as this bit of thread will just veer even more off topic. Let me take a wander through your reply.

First off I wasn't only referring to the 'Switch' campaign. You Know that perfectly well as I said 'over the last eight years' and you simply chose to ignore the fact. When Apple completed the intel switch Jobs spouted off the same argument but this time almost seemed serious about it. The problem was I couldn't find the quote.

When Apple says 'and now for the other ninety per cent' in a $50 million TV and printed press campaign we should all put on our Apple designed RDF glasses and instantly realise that they have no intention of actually putting machines onto the market that are anywhere near suitable enough to achieve the stated goal. That's because the stated goal is poppycock. Yes, we're all aware that just getting out of single digit market share figures would chuff everyone at Cupertino but - and please remove your glasses now - it has nothing to do with the goals they are advertising, so take it for what it is: nonsense.

I made it clear the initial iPhone sales should have ridden on the crest of a wave for around three months and of course there was an explosion the first few weeks. I said it was pent up demand and it was. Knowing that, why did you choose to repeat the same information with figures? Do you really think that if sales had continued that way they would have reduced the price - just 60 days after release? And that's you're only defence? The only way to interpret that situation is how I described it: very grim indeed.

I said the iPhone launch failed to garner the sales projected by Apple and they took action. You counter that saying that Apple just kicked RIMs ass? Why are you mixing iPhone 3G with the iPhone launch. Why jump a year into the future? The point is about the launch, not the re-launch. Your JD reference is also a current reference (Nov 2008). Nothing to do with what I'm talking about.

iPhone 3G and iPhone OS 2 are inseparable.

Your RIM 778 reference is also current. Not valid as I'm talking about the iPhone original launch.

I didn't say you had said fat margins were necessary. I made an observation.

Why do you think Apple reducing margins equates to Dell? Apple can reduce margins and still have far better margins than Dell.

I spoke about Apple as a company and their 95% share claims and you counter that they've just wiped the floor with MS, Palm etc but, wait for it, in smartphones. Great, you counter with something that has absolutely nothing to do with Apple's Mac business. So little in fact that Apple's stated goal for the phone market is 1%.

What was 'special' about the special event? New MB and MBPs which everybody was well prepared for because of the leaks. 28% YOY? I need a special event for that?

You don't think that MS/DELL/HP is the Great White of the PC world? Who is then? You say the iPhone is already cheap. Why then did you say:

Quote:
The iPhone still isn't cheap and it never will be

It seems you are clutching at straws.
post #1414 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by otwayross View Post

you're arguing the same point sherlock
as i said - they don't have to care... the user can choose what technology they want
HP, Dell etc only have to provide the card slot and belkin or whoever provides the card

Yeah, okay. Whatever you say...the lack of 1394b support from MS in Vista means that FW is doing awesome.

Quote:
this is most persistent low IQ argument that fanboys like yourself keep coming out with
just stop it, take a break, have a look which forum you're on
and start thinking about why it's not as easy as that
if i was on a system that didn't have me locked in (which is apple's game plan)
do you think i'd care about brand loyalty?

So what? Break the cycle just like Windows switchers are doing. Do you not think that MS has lock-in?

If Apple suxxors so much for you and they've been consistently doing so for the last few models (glossy screens, no firewire, no xMac, etc) then geez...what makes you think the NEXT product cycle won't be even MORE of the same?

It's not like Vista is THAT much worse than Leopard.

Quote:
in the short term maybe...

Short term? Since Jobs came back a DECADE ago. Until he keels over it aint changing.

Quote:
if they keep up the path with hardware DRM, increasing prices, gloss only screens
and deleting ports we'll see how fast they grow

Hardware DRM enables more content from content providers. Until HDCP was provided it was a convienent excuse to not release to iTunes vs other channels.

Quote:
again, following your arguments that most of the new market are switchers
and students at that, let's see how happy they are when they discover that
they can't plug in dad's relatively new DV camcorder or use their school's / uni / college brand new high end version for that matter "hey the guy in the apple store told me this was the top of the techno heap???"

Yah, we'll see. Like I said, Xmas and next Back to School is yet to come.

Quote:
notice how wrt the DRM apple didn't warn anyone before a purchase... very good and honest business model right ?

Yes, HDCP should have been listed in the specs. Actually, most companies list that as a desired feature on monitors and computers because it permits more HD content from the ever-paranoid content owners. I wonder if the HDCP code was enabled accidently.

I've been hoping that the ACDs had HDCP for a long long time. The 30" ACD can't work as an effective TV replacement until it happens because...no Blu-Ray.

Quote:
no one said that except you... \

Quote:
is that he's a total live wire - which leads to interesting and sometimes very good results
but he's quick to change his mind, even go back on his "word"

Gee...that contrasts with Jack Welch's (no slacker himself) opinion: "the most successful CEO today."
post #1415 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avon B7 View Post

I'm not going to take your post apart chunk by chunk as this bit of thread will just veer even more off topic. Let me take a wander through your reply.

First off I wasn't only referring to the 'Switch' campaign.

Except that is what you linked to. Which is why I asked for a link.

Quote:
You Know that perfectly well as I said 'over the last eight years' and you simply chose to ignore the fact.

Then provide a link that better illustrates your point.

Quote:
When Apple completed the intel switch Jobs spouted off the same argument but this time almost seemed serious about it. The problem was I couldn't find the quote.

Perhaps you again misinterpreted it beyond the desire to get more folks exposed to OSX and switch vs taking over 95% of the market.

Quote:
When Apple says 'and now for the other ninety per cent' in a $50 million TV and printed press campaign we should all put on our Apple designed RDF glasses and instantly realise that they have no intention of actually putting machines onto the market that are anywhere near suitable enough to achieve the stated goal.

It's RDF if you BELIEVE that they're going to grab 90% of the total market share. Apple can not and intelligently does not want to.

However Apple does have a very healthy market share in the consumer market and wants to grow that.

Quote:
That's because the stated goal is poppycock. Yes, we're all aware that just getting out of single digit market share figures would chuff everyone at Cupertino but - and please remove your glasses now - it has nothing to do with the goals they are advertising, so take it for what it is: nonsense.

Right. Because you misinterpret their goal means that Apple's strategy and advertising is nonsense.

Quote:
I made it clear the initial iPhone sales should have ridden on the crest of a wave for around three months and of course there was an explosion the first few weeks. I said it was pent up demand and it was. Knowing that, why did you choose to repeat the same information with figures? Do you really think that if sales had continued that way they would have reduced the price - just 60 days after release? And that's you're only defence? The only way to interpret that situation is how I described it: very grim indeed.

Or maybe they wanted to do what they said: lower the price for Christmas. You have less than ZERO evidence to back up that sales were "grim".

"The moves by Apple today offer a mixed message on the current and future success of the relationship with AT&T (NYSE: T). From the wireless company's perspective, a lower price for the iPhone will broaden the audience for the device, and was probably necessary in a U.S. market that is conditioned to pay next to nothing for a cell phone, regardless of the features it has. On the other hand, the new iTouch may dampen this upside, as it eliminates that segment of prospective buyers who were always more interested in the iPod and browser features than they were in becoming AT&T subscribers. From Apple's perspective, the iPhone was selling well (a recent report by iSuppli said it was the most popular Smartphone in the U.S. in July), but perhaps not quite well enough to hit Apple's previously stated goal of hitting a million sales by the end of the quarter. The reduced price and the introduction of the iTouch, at an even lower price point, should drive a good amount of volume this holiday season."

http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2007/0...ght-on-iphone/

"FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Apple Inc's (AAPL.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) iPhone outsold all smartphones in the United States in July, its first full month on sale, accounting for 1.8 percent of all U.S. mobile handset sales, research group iSuppli said on Tuesday.

ISuppli reiterated its forecast that Apple would sell 4.5 million iPhones this year, rising to more than 30 million in 2011."

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMos...32369320070904

Not selling enough to hit 1M sales in a qtr is not grim. On track for 4.5M sales in half a year is not grim. Dropping price a little earlier in the quarter to hit it out of the ballpark is a far more accurate depliction. One that Jobs in fact used.

Quote:
You counter that saying that Apple just kicked RIMs ass? Why are you mixing iPhone 3G with the iPhone launch. Why jump a year into the future? The point is about the launch, not the re-launch.

And it kicked in June of 2007 as well.

"The two models of the iPhone on the market sold more than Research in Motion's (RIM.TO: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) Blackberry series, the entire Palm (PALM.O: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) portfolio and any individual smartphone model from Motorola (MOT.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), Nokia (NOK1V.HE: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) or Samsung (005930.KS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).

Sales equaled those of LG Electronics' (066570.KS: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) Chocolate, the most popular feature phone on the U.S. market, iSuppli said."

http://www.reuters.com/article/wtMos...32369320070904

Find me anywhere that indicates that Apple iPhone sales were "grim".

Quote:
Your JD reference is also a current reference (Nov 2008). Nothing to do with what I'm talking about.

It counters your assertion that Apple is weak wrt to buisness even with the 3G and 2.0. Which did not occur until July of 2008.

Quote:
iPhone 3G and iPhone OS 2 are inseparable.

Except that iPhone OS2 runs on the iPhone 2G doesn't it? That makes it pretty seperable.

Quote:
Your RIM 778 reference is also current. Not valid as I'm talking about the iPhone original launch.

Given that the iPhone outsold the entire Blackberry line I would say that would be false. In any case, if the iPhone 1.0-1.1.5 sucked for a year then it would not have won the JD Powers award in 2008 because the 2.0 software was not released until July 2008.

So your contention is that Apple managed to win over business users enough to be #1 on JD Powers in just 4 months? That JD Powers did not start its survey until the very last moment in late October? That there were not millions of iPhone 2G business users that could have trashed the iPhone in that survey?

Riiight.

Quote:
I didn't say you had said fat margins were necessary. I made an observation.

You stated: "Since when do you need fat margins to fuel new product design?"

Gee, I wonder what that wording implies.

Quote:
Why do you think Apple reducing margins equates to Dell? Apple can reduce margins and still have far better margins than Dell.

Your response is incorrect in addressing what I wrote. The statement was in response to your suggestion that going the low margin and high volumes was an equal or better business model. The difference between Dell and Apple today shows this is not always true and that low volume, high margin can be more successful.

Quote:
I spoke about Apple as a company and their 95% share claims and you counter that they've just wiped the floor with MS, Palm etc but, wait for it, in smartphones.

AGAIN incorrect. You stated that Apple would lose credibility. The fact that they decisively beat the incumbents in a competive market that folks said they could not means they can say any bloody thing they want and be taken seriously.

Jobs could walk out tomorrow and declare he was going to kick Nintendo's butt next Christmas (2009) and there'd be some seriously perturbed folks at Sony, Nintendo and MS. They would have no clue how he was going to do that but they'd all be worried that he could based on the asskicking he gave RIM and Palm.

Hell, Nintendo is probably already mildly worried given Jobs keeps downplaying aTV and the number of game developers that is now familiar with ObjectiveC and Cocoa. Apple would target the same casual market that Nintendo does. The next Mini/aTV could be one hell of a game box.

Apple has ZERO credibility problems as a result of their marketing or what Jobs says. Your assertion that Apple has some potential issue with credibility because of that 95% marketing thing (which I think you misunderstand ANYWAY) has zero basis in reality.

Quote:
Great, you counter with something that has absolutely nothing to do with Apple's Mac business. So little in fact that Apple's stated goal for the phone market is 1%.

You know, if you're actually going to dissect every line it would actually be helpful to do so next to the line in question because I have no idea what this is in reference to.

That 1% is actually like 15-20% of the smartphone market. They want more of that market because that's where the margins are.

Quote:
What was 'special' about the special event? New MB and MBPs which everybody was well prepared for because of the leaks. 28% YOY? I need a special event for that?

So you're saying that the new design isn't worthy of a special event? It should have just been a press release like a speed bump because of the leaks.

Quote:
You don't think that MS/DELL/HP is the Great White of the PC world? Who is then? You say the iPhone is already cheap. Why then did you say:

Cheap is relative. $35,000 is cheap for a BMW. $199 is cheap for an iPhone. You won't be able to buy a BMW for $12,000 nor will you ever get an iPhone as a free phone. Is this concept hard to follow?

As far as Great White analogy goes, yes, MS/Dell/HP are the dominant players for computers but Apple is not their prey. Apple has been more successful at taking share from them than vice versa.

In the smartphone arena, it will not be Apple eaten by Symbian but Symbian eaten by Apple, Android, Linux and Windows. Just like Dell is getting eaten by HP, Apple and others.

Quote:
It seems you are clutching at straws.

Right. I'm not the one proclaiming that iPhone sales were "grim" in summer of 2007 and that Symbian is going to eat the iPhone for lunch in the coming year.
post #1416 of 1657
Well that was fun.

Haven't had that much amusement since debating Melgross.
post #1417 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

Well that was fun.

Haven't had that much amusement since debating Melgross.

well you should pick your debates carefully - because you're wrong on both logic and story
totally off the firewire topic, but since we're here...

the iphone 1G sales were impressive for a smartphone - no doubt
but not what apple had planned - hence the price drop (everyone knows this)

you see, what you're forgetting is that poor sales isn't measured in pure numbers
but what those numbers could have been
and what those numbers needed to be
and what those numbers were expected to be

same goes for mac sales (for those saying how well current mac sales are)
are they good? - sure
do they cover/repay r&d investment costs? - good question
could sales & customer satisfaction be better if they did things differently? - even better question

1G iphone sold 1.1 million phones in the 3rd quarter of 2007
3G iphone sold 1 million phones in its first 3 days on sale
even your mate SJ made the remark about how much better 3G was...

pretty much everyone agrees that the 1G was not the best launch for a number of reasons
- price
- lack of 3G
- only 1 carrier
- not in every country... simultaneously

which is why apple reacted quickly by dropping the price (and even backpaying early purchasers!)
and got the 3G out ASAP

if you want to maintain that the 1G launch was apple's best moment then you won't find many supporters

PS I bought/still have a 1G and quite like it... i'm neither knocking it or the iphone in general
post #1418 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by otwayross View Post

the iphone 1G sales were impressive for a smartphone - no doubt
but not what apple had planned - hence the price drop (everyone knows this)

And you have evidence of this, because I surely don't "know this". Also, why are you calling it 1G? Call it original or 2G.

Quote:
you see, what you're forgetting is that poor sales isn't measured in pure numbers
but what those numbers could have been
and what those numbers needed to be
and what those numbers were expected to be

AT&T said it sold faster than any other phone they had ever sold so are you saying that Apple expected the numbers to be break even more records? How exactly does this mean that the device was failure in your eyes.

Quote:
]1G iphone sold 1.1 million phones in the 3rd quarter of 2007. 3G iphone sold 1 million phones in its first 3 days on sale

And the iPhone was well known after being out for over a year, included 3G, GPS and new software, including the App Store, and was released in 22x the countries.

Quote:
even your mate SJ made the remark about how much better 3G was...

Show me a time when Steve Jobsor any business man pushing a new productclaimed that the previous model was better than the one they are pushing. Strawman!

Quote:
pretty much everyone agrees that the 1G was not the best launch for a number of reasons
- price
- lack of 3G
- only 1 carrier
- not in every country... simultaneously

Not as good as the 3G iPhone, but to call it a poor launch is absurd.

Quote:
which is why apple reacted quickly by dropping the price (and even backpaying early purchasers!)

The price was dropped a month and half later and the backpaying of $100 credit was because, in typical Apple user fashion, people expected more than they were promised. Even when you account for the new lower price of the 3G iPhone and 24-month accounting the iPhone is bringing in a staggering amount of Apple's revenue. Imagine what the original iPhone at $600+revenue sharing did for Apple. This was a simple shut the fuck up, feel grateful and buy the next model next year maneuver.

Quote:
and got the 3G out ASAP

A little over a year later... right when Jobs said it would be out 6 months before the original iPhone even launched.

Quote:
if you want to maintain that the 1G launch was apple's best moment then you won't find many supporters

Best, no; remarkable launches in Apple's history, definitely.
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post #1419 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

Well that was fun.

Haven't had that much amusement since debating Melgross.

There is so much wrong with your last post that I'll leave it for the readers to make up their own minds. I could go into great detail explaining why you fail to miss the point entirely but this part of the thread was already off-topic and dissecting your post would take it even further off.

However, just so others have the opportunity to understand what I mean, let me give just one example of what to look for:

Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea

Apple succeeds by being an elite brand with fat margins to fuel even more excellent products.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avon B7

You can fuel the same designs by reducing margins and increasing volume sales.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea

Yes, it's working great for Dell. And Apple has both fat margins AND industry leading growth.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avon B7

Why do you think Apple reducing margins equates to Dell? Apple can reduce margins and still have far better margins than Dell.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea

Your response is incorrect in addressing what I wrote. The statement was in response to your suggestion that going the low margin and high volumes was an equal or better business model. The difference between Dell and Apple today shows this is not always true and that low volume, high margin can be more successful.

You have altered my words.

Did I say that Apple needed low margins?

NO. I said Apple could reduce (lower) margins and increase volume sales. There is a world of difference between low margins and lower margins.

You got the wrong end of the stick but sadly, in your opinion, I am still the one who is incorrect in addressing what you wrote. OK, if that's how you see it I can live with that.
post #1420 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avon B7 View Post

I said Apple could reduce (lower) margins and increase volume sales.

Of course they could, how could anyone argue against that. They could also increase the margins and reduce unit sales. If you are asserting that by reducing margins will increase unit sales enough to make the company more money while maintaining the premium branding, then I'll need some proof, or even a well thought out hypothesis before I believe that.
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post #1421 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by otwayross View Post

the iphone 1G sales were impressive for a smartphone - no doubt
but not what apple had planned - hence the price drop (everyone knows this)

you see, what you're forgetting is that poor sales isn't measured in pure numbers
but what those numbers could have been
and what those numbers needed to be
and what those numbers were expected to be

Feel free to provide links that support your assertion.

Quote:
same goes for mac sales (for those saying how well current mac sales are)
are they good? - sure
do they cover/repay r&d investment costs? - good question

No question. They answer is more than yes or Apple wouldn't be adding to their warchest every quarter.

Quote:
could sales & customer satisfaction be better if they did things differently? - even better question

One answered by asking who's doing better than Apple at the moment.


So how much was constrained by supply and how much by demand?

In any case:

"The figures mesh with retail sales data already reported by NPD, which similarly described the size of the US market with a 27% chunk bit out by Apples iPhone.

Apples debut at second place across the entire North American smartphone market region for the third quarter ending in September is particularly noteworthy because the iPhone was only being sold in the US, and is only available through AT&T; all of the other mobile platforms are available to Sprint, Verizon Wireless, and T-Mobile as well as AT&T."

http://www.roughlydrafted.com/2007/1...share-q3-2007/

Quote:
3G iphone sold 1 million phones in its first 3 days on sale
even your mate SJ made the remark about how much better 3G was...

pretty much everyone agrees that the 1G was not the best launch for a number of reasons
- price
- lack of 3G
- only 1 carrier
- not in every country... simultaneously

which is why apple reacted quickly by dropping the price (and even backpaying early purchasers!) and got the 3G out ASAP

if you want to maintain that the 1G launch was apple's best moment then you won't find many supporters

"A large part of that second step has involved meticulously planned and perfectly executed events that make people feel like they are experiencing history, not just a product launch. Last year's iPhone launch event was perhaps the pinnacle of that strategy, as several million people came to a virtual standstill on June 29, 2007, to watch a company launch a phone. Unfortunately for Apple, several million people came to a standstill again this year: in line waiting for the iPhone 3G, or at home trying to activate their original iPhone."

http://news.cnet.com/8301-13579_3-9989293-37.html

"Our sources indicate that iPhone will likely become the fastest selling product in Apple's history and not to mention likely among the fastest (if not the fastest) in consumer electronics," analyst Shaw Wu informed clients in a research report published Monday. "We estimate sales of about 250,000 units in two days (up from our previous view of 50,000). The previous fastest seller was iPod nano, which sold about 1 million units in about 17 days meaning, about 59,000 units per day."

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...n_history.html

Here's two. Yes, the original iPhone launch was Apple's best moment thus far.

Now find me a few that thought that the original launch sucked. If everyone agrees that "the 1G was not the best launch" this should not be a hard task.

By the way...the 3G was a year later. Hardly a panic move by Apple or "ASAP". Apple was constrained by waiting for AT&T's 3G network to suck less.

Quote:
PS I bought/still have a 1G and quite like it... i'm neither knocking it or the iphone in general

I bought a 3G and trust me, the experience and excitement was no where near the same as the original launch. If Apple blew an iPhone launch it was definately the 3G.
post #1422 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

And you have evidence of this, because I surely don't "know this". Also, why are you calling it 1G? Call it original or 2G.


AT&T said it sold faster than any other phone they had ever sold so are you saying that Apple expected the numbers to be break even more records? How exactly does this mean that the device was failure in your eyes.


And the iPhone was well known after being out for over a year, included 3G, GPS and new software, including the App Store, and was released in 22x the countries.


Show me a time when Steve Jobsor any business man pushing a new productclaimed that the previous model was better than the one they are pushing. Strawman!


Not as good as the 3G iPhone, but to call it a poor launch is absurd.


The price was dropped a month and half later and the backpaying of $100 credit was because, in typical Apple user fashion, people expected more than they were promised. Even when you account for the new lower price of the 3G iPhone and 24-month accounting the iPhone is bringing in a staggering amount of Apple's revenue. Imagine what the original iPhone at $600+revenue sharing did for Apple. This was a simple shut the fuck up, feel grateful and buy the next model next year maneuver.


A little over a year later... right when Jobs said it would be out 6 months before the original iPhone even launched.


Best, no; remarkable launches in Apple's history, definitely.

1g because its 1st generation (yes i should put that as a little g)
if you can't read the between the lines on the SJ quote
and think that the 1g iphone was an impressive launch (relative to the 3G launch
then you obviously aren't very good at picking up innuendo

Quote:
"iPhone 3G had a stunning opening weekend," said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO, in a prepared statement. "It took 74 days to sell the first 1 million original iPhones, so the new iPhone 3G is clearly off to a great start around the world."

apple did well - sure - but just look outside the US
people had to wait ages to get it in most EU countries
and a year to get it in some countries with lots of disposable income like Australia, Japan etc
i mean they haven't even released the 3G in china, potentially the world's biggest market !?
they're still doing great, no contest on that one
but could they be doing better - certainly

this is so off topic, but then again it's not
because you think that if apple manages to sell anything they're brilliant
post #1423 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avon B7 View Post

There is so much wrong with your last post that I'll leave it for the readers to make up their own minds. I could go into great detail explaining why you fail to miss the point entirely but this part of the thread was already off-topic and dissecting your post would take it even further off.

However, just so others have the opportunity to understand what I mean, let me give just one example of what to look for:

You have altered my words.

Did I say that Apple needed low margins?

Can you point out where I altered your words to say that Apple needed low margins? I said that bring it up you suggested that this was an equivalent strategy to low volume/high margins. The counter example I presented was Dell. For that matter HP works as well.

Quote:
NO. I said Apple could reduce (lower) margins and increase volume sales. There is a world of difference between low margins and lower margins.

The difference is that the strategy changes requiring a different lineup with different performance than what we have observed with Apple. Even taking HP as the counter example, Apple is very profitable despite having much lower revenues.

HP: $28B revenue, GAAP net income of $2B, $0.80 per share.
Apple: $7.4B revenue, GAAP net income of $1B, $1.19 per share.
Dell: $13B revenye, GAAP net income $606M, $0.25 per share.

Lowering your margins has to be accompanied by much higher volume to make it worth while.

And you keep missing my primary point: Apple has BOTH large margins AND high growth.

Why should Apple lower margins? To pursue growth it may not be able to handle? It already has growing pains.

The fact that it does not lower margins to pursue market share shows that Apple has never strived for pure market dominance. Only in the highly profitable areas.

Quote:
You got the wrong end of the stick but sadly, in your opinion, I am still the one who is incorrect in addressing what you wrote. OK, if that's how you see it I can live with that.

I'm glad you can live with it. I would hope that no one takes internet debates very seriously.
post #1424 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

Feel free to provide links that support your assertion.

they're not assertions they're questions... dude
i'm asserting that you're not asking the right questions

Quote:
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...n_history.html

Here's two. Yes, the original iPhone launch was Apple's best moment thus far.

Now find me a few that thought that the original launch sucked. If everyone agrees that "the 1G was not the best launch" this should not be a hard task.

By the way...the 3G was a year later. Hardly a panic move by Apple or "ASAP". Apple was constrained by waiting for AT&T's 3G network to suck less.

I bought a 3G and trust me, the experience and excitement was no where near the same as the original launch. If Apple blew an iPhone launch it was definately the 3G.

you're definitely entering "i'm a clown" territory
74 days vs 3 days to sell 1 million - and that's from SJ

one minute you argue that doing well is about sales numbers
next you argue it's about "experience and excitement"
(and if that's your opinion I'm happy for you - and i can't/won't argue that away from you)

one minute you say SJ is king
next you disagree with him about which is Apple's best launch ??

i'm done on the iphone
if you want to think the 1g was best then go right ahead
for me the relativity of the numbers
and the frustration of all the buyers outside the US (which are represented by the numbers of the 3G launch)
speak for themselves.

but i'll let you have your opinions

now back to firewire if anyone's got anything to add
post #1425 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by otwayross View Post

but could they be doing better - certainly

Not "certainly". The Wii is as good but in a market with fewer players.

Show another company that has executed better. There are damn few product launches as memorable to be able to boldly make the claim it is certain that Apple could have done "better".

Hell, there wasn't this much excitement over the original Mac. I dunno what Apple product launch could be considered better than the original iPhone. The iPod one was not a big splash as a special event and low sales that first year.
post #1426 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by otwayross View Post

they're not assertions they're questions... dude

Quote:
the iphone 1G sales were impressive for a smartphone - no doubt
but not what apple had planned - hence the price drop (everyone knows this)

That is an assertion. A currently unsupported one. Show evidence that everyone knows that the sales were not what Apple planned and the price drop was the result.

Dude.

Quote:
one minute you say SJ is king next you disagree with him about which is Apple's best launch ??

For SJ the current lauch is always the best launch.

But given that there are many articles criticizing the 3G launch and few (none?) the 2G launch I guess I'll have to say that my position has far more support than yours.

Yes, numbers matter but it's not the only measure of a successful launch. Making folks wait hours in long lines because you've screwed up the authorization process is not the kind of user experience Apple shoots for.

But hey, call me a clown if you like. It just means you're losing the debate.
post #1427 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by otwayross View Post

..
pretty much everyone agrees that the 1G was not the best launch for a number of reasons
- price
- lack of 3G
- only 1 carrier
- not in every country... simultaneously

You are arguing that the launch of the first version of the iPhone was not good because the launch of the second version was better?

You do realize Apple has made around 3 billion in revenue from the first iPhone. When does selling 3 billion worth of anything prove to be mediocre?
post #1428 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avon B7 View Post

NO. I said Apple could reduce (lower) margins and increase volume sales. There is a world of difference between low margins and lower margins.

I'm only posting to this one item. I don't want to get drawn into anything else.

Apple has gross profit margins in the low 30 percentile, to about 35%. They have a profit of about 12%

A number of other computer companies are doing worse, which doesn't mean that Apple's are excessive. Losing money on a large part of sales is never a good thing, which is what Dell, for example has done in order to keep marketshare.

Company gross profit margins vary considerably, whether they make computers or other technology related products.

Some examples that I fairly quickly looked up. This isn't all up to date, as I was looking for some info quickly, but it doesn't matter because I'm just showing examples, which may have gotten better or worse later on.

networking

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1016...profit-margins

utilities

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1018...profit-margins

Apple

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=finan...=NASDAQ%3AAAPL

Nortel, notice that while it has high gross profit margins, its EPS is minus $1.97.

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=cafinancials&symbol=

IBM

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=financials&symbol=IBM

HP

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=finan...ol=HP&sf_ok=OK

CISCO

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=finan...=CSCO&sf_ok=OK

Dell, our screwed up friend that sells consumer machines often for less than it costs to make them

http://www.advfn.com/p.php?pid=finan...=DELL&sf_ok=OK

A short article showing why gross profit margins are not actually "profit", but just indicate when the company can actually begin to make a profit

http://www.b2bcfo.com/part-time-cfo/.../gross-profit/

Only Net profit margins are actually what we think of as profits, again, in Apple's case, about 12%.

Apple is doing ok here, but not fantastic. What has made Apple desirable as an investment id the growth in sales, with a steady profit and margins that are not too low.

I don't know how much you would cut margins. Even cutting them by 20% would only allow the prices go down by about 5% or so. It would cut profits to about 2%, which would make the stock drop like a stone, even in good times.
post #1429 of 1657
Melgross,

Quote:
I said Apple could reduce (lower) margins and increase volume sales. There is a world of difference between low margins and lower margins.

It seems that we agree that low margins and lower margins are not the same. On the subject of lower margins we also seem to agree that Apple has margin (no pun intended) to lower margins. It's impossible to know to what level as we do not have access to the necessary data. However, we can assume that Apple, being the company that it is (premium prices etc), can manoeuvre in this area.

Apple is a software, hardware, services and investment company. This complicates things still further but there are valid reasons to support a cut in margins. I would say there are more reasons to support a reduction in margins than to maintain them or increase them.

- They have already reduced margins (and they pre-announced the move).
- They are suposedly seeking to go after the other 95% of the PC market.
- It is reasonable to believe that the move to increase prices on one of its flagship models may backfire (note that I am not saying it will though but yes, that is my opinion in case you were wondering)
- As a services and software company there are reasonable secundary revenue streams to be generated but those streams cannot be realised until the purchaser has a Mac in his/her possession (support services, AppleCare, software).
- Part of Apple's justification of the iPhone price cut was to put the device into as many hands as possible and impact competitors.

Apple is trying to have its cake and eat it. There's no problem with that but at a corporate level I think it's vital to take moves to at least double the current market share. Anything that could cause users to put the brakes on a possible mac purchase needs to be looked at.

Currently there are areas that are lacking in Apple's product matrix (entry level tower for example) but when combined with Apple's pricing strategy I'm sure many users end up not following through on a purchase.
post #1430 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

You are arguing that the launch of the first version of the iPhone was not good because the launch of the second version was better?

You do realize Apple has made around 3 billion in revenue from the first iPhone. When does selling 3 billion worth of anything prove to be mediocre?

I'm also confused by your assertions...
are you claiming that the original iphone launch was better
because it sold phones at 25 times less per day than the 3G ?

or are you basing it on customer satisfaction centering around the geek queues,
a couple of hours of server overload (an indication of the worldwide publicity "success" of a launch)
and some problems with activation on the first day?

again, if you rate a launch on your (and a few other reporters/bloggers) experience on the 1st day
then i can't/won't argue with you (or vinea) - your welcome to your opinion.

My assertion is that the questions to be asked are the following:
a. what does the launch need to be to meet profits/costs/etc (this is the minimum to be economically successful)
b. what is the potential of this launch (it may be above point a) - this is planning for upsides on a. & will include some qualitative stuff like market assessment
c. after calculating b. and planning for it, what can do we expect (this is between a & b)

normally one would base their product production on b.
but a pessimistic manager could base their product production on c
a very pessimisic one on a. - but then they'll completely exclude the possibility of upsides

if b. is less than a. you generally won't get funding to manufacture the product.

here's a link where one guy has estimated costs etc based on the unlocked iphone price
his conclusion is that apple needed to sell 10 million g1 iphones (is g1 clearer for u? it wasn't a 2G but a 2.5G anyway...)
to meet their normal 'expectations' of profit
...who knows if this is correct?

at the initial launch rate of this was going to take them 74 x 10 = 740 days or 2 years to meet...
at the 3G launch rate this would have only taken one month
your call as to which one was best.

apple will think about these sort of things for all product launches
and only they can say what the required sales are (and the increased costs) for the unibody macbooks
unfortunately this info is not released in the 10k - and they don't even publish indv model sales

again launch success is not just based on whether you manage to sell some items (or even many)
but also
- the requirement (to repay costs)
- the potential (which obviously depends on product type/quality & market)

we have little idea on the requirements for the macbook launch (to make it economic)
and my opinion (based on those around me who have avoided this sale)
is that apple has not reached their potential on the MB launch (due to factors discussed previously)
post #1431 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avon B7 View Post

Melgross,



It seems that we agree that low margins and lower margins are not the same. On the subject of lower margins we also seem to agree that Apple has margin (no pun intended) to lower margins. It's impossible to know to what level as we do not have access to the necessary data. However, we can assume that Apple, being the company that it is (premium prices etc), can manoeuvre in this area.

Apple is a software, hardware, services and investment company. This complicates things still further but there are valid reasons to support a cut in margins. I would say there are more reasons to support a reduction in margins than to maintain them or increase them.

- They have already reduced margins (and they pre-announced the move).
- They are suposedly seeking to go after the other 95% of the PC market.
- It is reasonable to believe that the move to increase prices on one of its flagship models may backfire (note that I am not saying it will though but yes, that is my opinion in case you were wondering)
- As a services and software company there are reasonable secundary revenue streams to be generated but those streams cannot be realised until the purchaser has a Mac in his/her possession (support services, AppleCare, software).
- Part of Apple's justification of the iPhone price cut was to put the device into as many hands as possible and impact competitors.

Apple is trying to have its cake and eat it. There's no problem with that but at a corporate level I think it's vital to take moves to at least double the current market share. Anything that could cause users to put the brakes on a possible mac purchase needs to be looked at.

Currently there are areas that are lacking in Apple's product matrix (entry level tower for example) but when combined with Apple's pricing strategy I'm sure many users end up not following through on a purchase.

Apple's ability to cut margins is poor. As their margins approach 30%, on the way down, investors get nervous, as they should. A healthy margin for Apple is around 33%. Sustained margins below that are cutting it too fine.

Apple didn't lower the price of the iPhone, they just moved the payments into a long term contract, and have the phone companies paying for the rest.
post #1432 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avon B7 View Post

- They have already reduced margins (and they pre-announced the move).

Which was to pay for the increased cost in machining the new design. A design and process they intend to carry them through for the next few years.

Quote:
- They are suposedly seeking to go after the other 95% of the PC market.

Repeated assertion of an incorrect statement never makes it true.

There is no indication that Apple is seeking MS level market share. In fact all of their statements have been negative. In conference call after conference call folks have asked if they will reduce margin to increase share and the answer has ALWAYS been that they are comfortable with their current rate of growth.

Jobs has dismissed to two segments (PCs $500 or less and netbooks) that are either the majority share or has rapid growth as areas that Apple is not interested in.

You continue to misconstrue what Apple says. The message is the same as it was when the first Mac was released. When they say "the machine for the rest of us" (or the other 95%) they mean they build computers that doesn't require being a geek to use.

Not that they intend on building machines cheap enough that everyone can afford to buy one.

In large part Jobs has succeeded in his goal to change computing. Vista is not THAT much harder to use than Leopard...but the Mac really did show the way.

Quote:
- It is reasonable to believe that the move to increase prices on one of its flagship models may backfire (note that I am not saying it will though but yes, that is my opinion in case you were wondering)

Except that the entry level MB is now less expensive ($999) and more powerful than before and the flagship model (MBP) is the same price. When the cost of the new process drops enough, the silver MP will replace the white MB, probably at the old $1099 level. The new MBs at the top end are more expensive but also more capable than the old top end MB. In fact they are effectively MBP level.

Quote:
- As a services and software company there are reasonable secundary revenue streams to be generated but those streams cannot be realised until the purchaser has a Mac in his/her possession (support services, AppleCare, software).

Secondary revenue streams are just that. Secondary. Out of $3.4B in revenues. Software, services and other sales provided $0.5B in revenue and preipherals $0.4B. In contrast, Mac sales contribute 48% of Apple's revenue stream.

Quote:
- Part of Apple's justification of the iPhone price cut was to put the device into as many hands as possible and impact competitors.

Yes, because Apple is trying to dominate the still emerging smartphone market. Which is an area they see an opportunity to replicate their iPod success. The PC market is mature and that war was lost a decade ago.

Quote:
Apple is trying to have its cake and eat it. There's no problem with that but at a corporate level I think it's vital to take moves to at least double the current market share. Anything that could cause users to put the brakes on a possible mac purchase needs to be looked at.

Given that they had 3-4 weeks channel inventory they are selling what they make even with high margins. There's no need to do anything to double Mac's market share so long as it continues to grow better than the industry average and Apple doesn't care about doubling total market share but instead growing share in the most profitable segments.

In fact, I'd go as far to say that Apple deliberately limits Mac growth to keep the cache of being different in the computing world.

The place that Apple CAN grow massive share is the smartphone market. That's where they are concentrating and even there they are making money hand over fist while they have the market advantage.

Don't bet on Symbian. Nokia may be a great phone maker but no where close to Apple in terms of software development. Arguably UIQ (Moto/Sony Erricson Symbian) was better than S60 (Nokia Symbian) for smartphones but SE phones were not as good as the Nokia counterpart making it more sluggish.

The Symbian Foundation is too new to see how well it all shakes out. And it lost Motorolla who decided to go Android.

Here's an interesting chart based on non-scientific data of developer interest:

http://mobilephonedevelopment.com/archives/711

There's an iPhone dev shortage and mobile developers are moving where the money is.

Here's a developer's comment on easy of development

http://mobilephonedevelopment.com/archives/710

Yes, windows mobile IS easier to develop for than the iPhone. As much as I like XCode, VS is IMHO better and C# easier to code for than ObjC. I've only looked at the S60 stuff an not done any development with that but my own sources indicates this guy isn't far off.

Plus, Symbian code will cost $1500 to be a member. Whereas the iPhone is $99 (free if you just want to try first) or free for either Linux, Java or Windows.

This is a non-issue for companies but for indie developers they'll either go Java, C# or iPhone. And with the AppStore it's no contest. iPhone.

Quote:
Currently there are areas that are lacking in Apple's product matrix (entry level tower for example) but when combined with Apple's pricing strategy I'm sure many users end up not following through on a purchase.

Apple has no need for an entry tower because it does not desire the demographic that buys entry towers. That those folks wont by a Mac is fine by Apple. Just like that fewer folks buy a Porshe is fine with Porsche.
post #1433 of 1657
Took a quick look at smartphone share. RIM, MS, Linux and OSX have grown in share for quarters. Symbian has been losing share to all of them. That 70% slice of the pie Symbian owned in 2007 is going to look like 50%. The other loser is Palm. I expect Palm to die in favor of Windows.

Looks like those aren't minnows swimming with that great white but piranha.
post #1434 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Apple's ability to cut margins is poor. As their margins approach 30%, on the way down, investors get nervous, as they should. A healthy margin for Apple is around 33%. Sustained margins below that are cutting it too fine.

Apple didn't lower the price of the iPhone, they just moved the payments into a long term contract, and have the phone companies paying for the rest.

We don't know what Apple's options for cuts are. No company should be worried of its shareholders' reaction if it believes in its decisions. It is up to the board to convince shareholders that any such measures are for the greater good.

We know that iPod boom is coming to an end. We hope the iPhone boom is just beginning but Apple is a computer company (in spite of the name change) that has successfully dabbled in other markets. Whichever way you look at it Apple's shares are going to be topsy turvy for a while (just like everybody else's). If it's not the end of the iPod boom, it will be SJ and his successor, or the economic climate in general and any amount of other reasons. Reducing margins to achieve longer term goals will do no more harm to Apple's stock than any of the points I just mentioned.

Apple did reduce the price on the iPhone. We cannot say otherwise. We don't know how the price cut was accounted for between the contracted parties though.
post #1435 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Of course they could, how could anyone argue against that. They could also increase the margins and reduce unit sales. If you are asserting that by reducing margins will increase unit sales enough to make the company more money while maintaining the premium branding, then I'll need some proof, or even a well thought out hypothesis before I believe that.

The proof you are asking for cannot exist. If it did everybody would be managing their operations the same way. Everybody would be making money off their premium brands.

Branding is a perception. It's marketing. It's aimed more at the people that don't have your products than those that do. The people who already have your products know full well if the product is really a premium product or not. If you really have a great, premium product it's much easier to retain clients providing they have the cash for what you offer.

Branding is all about convincing potential buyers that the purchase will be worth it.

It is possible to reduce margins, increase sales and maintain the premium label but there are too many factors involved to guarantee success.

IMO Apple's number one concern must be market share growth. I believe current pricing is too high and that sooner rather than later they will have to adjust their price points (especially on the MB).
post #1436 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea View Post

Can you point out where I altered your words to say that Apple needed low margins? I said that bring it up you suggested that this was an equivalent strategy to low volume/high margins. The counter example I presented was Dell. For that matter HP works as well.

Erm, I don't know how I should put this without causing offence. In the same post I took the above quote from, you quoted me explaining exactly where you changed my words:

Quote:
Originally Posted by vinea

Your response is incorrect in addressing what I wrote. The statement was in response to your suggestion that going the low margin and high volumes was an equal or better business model. The difference between Dell and Apple today shows this is not always true and that low volume, high margin can be more successful.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avon B7

NO. I said Apple could reduce (lower) margins and increase volume sales. There is a world of difference between low margins and lower margins.

Which bit don't you understand? You go on about how I suggested LOW margins and how it's so wrong but I simply never ever said LOW margins. Please try to get it. LOWER is not the same as LOW. You are barking up the wrong tree. Also, I simply don't know why you have put 'needed' in bold in the first quote (above).

And as I have said repeatedly now, this is way off topic. I refuse to pick apart your post which is full of irrelevant information regarding what I wrote. This thread really isn't the place. If you'd like to open another thread so that I can pick your argument apart I will glady reply to everything you have stated but the truth is I'm all for other people making their own minds up. I don't need to do anything regarding what I've already stated.
post #1437 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avon B7 View Post

It is possible to reduce margins, increase sales and maintain the premium label but there are too many factors involved to guarantee success.

Too many factors involved for you but to hypothesis, but you stated that "Apple could reduce (lower) margins and increase volume sales" which implies that you are certain that it would be successful for Apple. Others have a lot of experience in the budget PC market, but Apple doesn't. I I want to know why you think that Apple can do this while others can't.
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post #1438 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by Avon B7 View Post

Erm, I don't know how I should put this without causing offence. In the same post I took the above quote from, you quoted me explaining exactly where you changed my words:

Ah, I see now. My bad.

However, "lower" margins is almost meaningless without saying how much lower and how much higher volume you expect. In any case, they lowered margins without lowering price because they are producing a higher cost laptop. A cost they choose not to fully pass on to the consumer. So what you want isn't "lower margins" anyway but lower price to chase market share. In which case my comments STILL apply. Apple has both high margins AND growth. There's zero need to change until the economy forces them to lower prices IF they want to maintain growth at this pace.

Which they MAY NOT.

Again, they DO not seek 95% market share as you assert incorrectly. You claim this is and other comments "irrelevant" to the discussion and refuse to address those comments but YOU brought that up in the first place.

Yes, many comments are "off topic" probably because you don't want to BE on topic given you refuse to even acknowledge that the MB is in fact selling well. Now you don't want to discuss points YOU brought up because they are "off topic". Like that Symbian thing.
post #1439 of 1657
You are making this so much more complicated than it really is. Apple is making obscene amounts of money quarter after quarter. How you take that and turn it into a questioning of Apple meeting sales projections and costs, I really don't know.




Quote:
Originally Posted by otwayross View Post

but also
- the requirement (to repay costs)
- the potential (which obviously depends on product type/quality & market)

we have little idea on the requirements for the macbook launch (to make it economic)
and my opinion (based on those around me who have avoided this sale)
is that apple has not reached their potential on the MB launch (due to factors discussed previously)
post #1440 of 1657
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

You are making this so much more complicated than it really is. Apple is making obscene amounts of money quarter after quarter. How you take that and turn it into a questioning of Apple meeting sales projections and costs, I really don't know.

Because Apple isn't making machines they want. Therefore Apple must be making the wrong product decisions and could obviously "do better" and folks that point out that Apple is going great are just fanbois.

I guess their "improved" product/business/marketing/pricing strategies can whimsically be called "golden goose optimization".
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