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Apple radically more undervalued than others tech heavyweights

post #1 of 66
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As the U.S. equity markets continue the long process of making a bottom in what is now consider to be one of the worst bear markets in history, tech investors should begin to shift their focus on a comparative valuation analysis of the leaders in the tech industry.

Tech companies with solid balance sheets, large cash hordes and solid growth rates will fair a lot better in a market recovery than those whose valuations did not dramatically deflate over the past year. Of the nine big tech companies Ive reviewed, Apple stands out as being the most radically undervalued in the tech sector on an objective basis.

Apple has more net cash than each of the nine big tech stocks, zero debt, trades at the lowest price-to-cash ratio of only 3.79, grew earnings faster than every other tech company except for RIMM, and is generating almost $3.00 per share in free cash flow every quarter. Just to get an idea of how undervalued Apple is compared to others in the tech sector, one need only to consider where these other tech companies would stand if they were valued in the same way as Apple, i.e. if those same companies were met with the same general bearishness with which Apple is faced.

A lower price-to-cash ratio literally indicates the level of bearishness in a stock price. A price-to-cash ratio of 1 indicates that the market believes the company will not be profitable in the future. A price-to-cash ratio of less than 1 indicates that the market believes that the company will contract in the future by pricing in a future loss of cash. Out of the nine companies listed in the table below, the market is most bearish on Appleconsidering the highly deflated price-to-cash ratio.



Apple Compared to the Four Horsemen of Tech

Below, I offer a comparison of Apple to the four horsemen of tech to help illuminate the degree to which Apple is undervalued. Apples stock price is devalued significantly more than Google, Research in Motion and Amazon:

Apple v. Google

Apple grew its adjusted earnings at a pace of 78.5% in 2008. Google, on the other hand, grew its 2008 earnings at a pace of only 31.33%. Apple has $24.49 billion or $27.57 per share in cash while Google only has $14.41 billion or $45.87 per share in cash. Yet, even though Apple grew its earnings at more than twice the pace of Google, Apple trades at about half the trailing P/E that Google trades at. What is even more surprising is that Apple trades at less than half the price-to-cash ratio that Google trades at. Google currently trades at 7.81 times its cash position while Apple trades at a depressed value of only 3.79 times its cash position. If Google traded at the same price to cash ratio that Apple is trading at, Google would be valued at $173.84 per share. Yet, setting aside the price-to-cash ratio, if Google even traded at the same deflated P/E ratio that Apple is currently trading at; Googles shares would be priced at $262.91.

Based on these metrics, Apple is far more undervalued than Google on an objective basis. There is no reason why Google should have a larger market capitalization than Apple especially when Apple is producing more in operating cash flow ($9.69 billion v. $7.42 billion) than Google, grows its earnings at more than twice the pace of Google, has almost twice the cash position of Google, and makes more in revenue than Google does. Wall Street is certainly irrational when it comes to comparative valuation, and this case is certainly no different.

Another way to think about this is to consider which of these companies an investor would buy if he or she had $110 billion in cash. Which seems to be a more obvious investment? Is Google a better buy at $103.54 billion or is Apple a better purchase at $92.9 billion? Remember, Google has only $14.4 billion in cash while Apple has $24.49 billion in cash. This means it would literally cost the investor only $68.38 billion to buy Apple while it would cost him/her $89.13 billion to buy Google. It would take that investor 7 years to pay off his/her investment in Apple while it would take over 13 years to pay off his/her investment in Google. Such an investment would make no sense considering the fact that Apple produces more in free cash flow than Google and produces more in cash earnings.

Apple v. Research in Motion

Based on the numbers above, Apple is clearly a much better investment than Research in Motion. First, AAPL trades at almost half the price to free cash flow that RIMM trades at. Also, RIMM doesnt grow at a sufficiently higher rate than AAPL which might justify giving RIMM a price-to-cash ratio of 17.45 while giving AAPL a price-to-cash ratio of only 3.79. Secondly, RIMMs market capitalization is simply too large when compared to AAPL. When backing out cash positions from market capitalization, AAPLs net market cap is at $68.38 billion while RIMMs market cap is at $25.49 billion. Considering the fact that AAPL produces $9.69 billion in operating cash flow while RIMM produces a relatively meager $1.73 billion, Apple is simply a significantly better investment. If RIMM were given the same price to cash ratio that Apple is currently trading at, RIMM would be trading at $10.42 a share -- nearly 80% lower than where RIMM trades at today. If it were given the same deflated P/E ratio, RIMM would be trading at $42.89.

Apple v. Amazon

This comparison is laughable. I simply cannot understand how the market could give a retailer such as Amazon a 39.02 P/E ratio while giving Apple, a company that has clearly demonstrated that it can withstand a slowdown better than most, a 13.97 P/E. Amazon has only $1.86 billion in net cash, produces less in operating cash flow than even Research in Motion, holds one of the highest price-to-cash ratios (10.49) of any other tech giant, and grew its earnings at a rate significantly lower than Apple and RIMM. Moreover, Amazon also has the highest price to operating cash flow ratio than any other tech giant in the sector (20.66). Of the nine companies listed in the table above, Amazon presents with the least attractive valuation. The market has too much trust in Amazon and I havent seen enough bearishness in the stock to justify an entry relative to others in the tech sector. Im not saying that Amazon isnt undervalued in on an objective basis, but its just less undervalued than GOOG, RIMM, MSFT, AAPL and others.

In terms of a comparison, Apple has $24.49 billion in net cash versus Amazons $1.86 billion. Apple trades at 3.79 its cash position while Amazon trades at 10.49 times its cash position. Apple trades at 7.06 times operating cash flow while Amazon trades at over 20.6 times cash flow. Amazon has a net market cap of $22.54 billion while Apple has a net market cap of $68.38 billion. Amazon grew earnings at a pace of 67.82% in 2008 while Apple grew its adjusted earnings at a pace of 78.5% in 2008. There is no reason why Amazon should deserve three times the P/E ratio given to Apple. Apple grows its earnings at a faster pace than Amazon, has 12 times the amount of cash of Amazon, makes far more in net income than Amazon, trades at less than half Amazons operating cash flow ratio, trades at roughly 1/3 the price-to-cash of Amazon and is better situated than Amazon going forward. While the market might not figure this out over the next few months, eventually the market will realize that Apple is a far better investment and will likely revaluate the companies accordingly. Im not arguing that Amazon is not undervalued, but that it is far less attractive at current levels than others in the sector.

Why the Market is Bearish on Apple

The data above merely indicates that the market is extremely bearish on Apple. Yet, it does not explain why the market happens to be bearish and whether the market is right in its assessment. There are several reasons why the market happens to be particularly bearish on Apple. Yet, some of those concerns are way overblown, and some are outright irrational. Below are list of reasons why the market is bearish and whether the market is right in its assessment.

1. Major Concerns regarding the Health of the Consumer

The main reason that the market is particularly bearish on Apple has to do with overblown fears regarding a consumer-lead slowdown affecting Apples business. The idea here is that since consumer spending and sentiment are hitting multi-year lows, Apples business cannot function at any reasonable level. Many in the market have argued that since Apple is supposedly entirely consumer discretionary, that the consumer is going to cut back its spending on products such iPhones and iPods. Many have asked: how can anyone possibly afford to buy an iPod when they can barely afford consumer staples?

This concern is obviously overblown beyond epic proportions. First, while economists have been drumming the recession 2008 beat, Apples Mac sales, iPhone sales, Mac revenue, iPod revenue, total revenue, EPS, net income, free cash flow, cash growth and iTunes revenue have all been accelerating. Not just growing, but accelerating. There is nothing in Apples 2008 quarterly earnings reports that have indicated that the consumer has slowed down. At best, the 2008 "recession" has had only a negligible if any impact on Apples business. The market destroyed Apples stock price in January over these very same concerns which never materialized. Even in Q4, analysts were extremely cautious on Apples earnings, taking the stock down from a high of $180 to a low of $148 post Q3 earnings due to concerns regarding Apples fourth quarter -- concerns, which once again, never materialized. While the market was busy falling off of a cliff in June on concerns of stagflation, people were lined up around the block to buy iPhones -- not tickets into homeless shelters as the media had investors believe.

Moreover, the market has already priced in a complete destruction of Apples business. So any slowdown that may or may not occur is already fully priced in. This is clearly evident by the analyst consensus estimates for 2009. The analysts are modeling for Apple to earn $5.36 in EPS on $37.61 billion in earnings for 2009. Apple earned $5.36 in EPS on $32.48 billion in revenue in 2008. Thus, the analysts are literally modeling for 0.00% growth in earnings for 2009. As an analyst, I have never seen more irrational consensus estimates in my career.

First, the numbers are not even consistent. The analysts are modeling for Apple to earn $5 billion more in revenue for 2009, but nothing more in EPS. This has largely been the result of overblown concerns regarding Apples gross margin for 2009. Gross margins will probably rise rather than fall in 2009 as discussed in Turely Mullers article entitled Apples FY09 Gross Margin Expectations Are Too Low. Turley Muller, a chartered financial analyst, makes a persuasive case that Wall Street cannot seem to wrap their heads around.

Second, the revenue estimates for 2009 are simply out of touch with reality. For starters, Apple entered into 2008 with only $346 million in currently deferred revenue from sales of the iPhone and Apple TV. That means that Apple got an $86.5 million revenue boost each quarter in 2008 -- current deferred revenue is recognized over the course of the year. Yet, entering into 2009, Apple has a whopping $3.518 billion in current deferred revenue that it gets to recognize in its earnings reportsthats $880 million in revenue that Apple gets to automatically recognize each quarter in FY09. Said another way, the analysts believe that Apple is only going to make $1.958 billion in new revenue in 2009. That is a bold statement considering the fact that Apple just sold 6.9 million iPhones in Q4 2008 amounting to $3.787 billion in revenue. If Apple sells just 10 million iPhones in all of fiscal 2009, the deferred iPhone revenue from those sales alone would result in Apple earning the $1.958 billion in revenue difference even if Apples growth rate was flat across all of its operating segments and in all of its primary operations for the year.

2. The false perceptions regarding Apples dependence on iPod Sales

As I argued earlier this week, iPod sales made up only 14.2% of Apples total revenue in Q4 2008. As a matter of fact, iPod revenue is making up an ever decreasing portion of Apples overall revenue. Moreover, even if Apple were as dependent on the iPod as many would have investors believe, iPod revenue actually accelerated in 2008 indicating that the consumer opted to buy more expensive iPods in 2008 than it did in 2007. And it did so with more enthusiasm than between 2006 and 2007 -- hence the revenue acceleration. Most market participants invested in Apple know so little about the company that they automatically assume that all Apple does is sell iPods. Nothing can be further from the truth as indicated by the 14.2% number for Q4.

3. Particular Events leading to Apples Stock Collapse: A Week by Week Detail

Most of Apples recent fall in share value from $180 in August to $85.00 in October can be attributed to four particular events. While the stock would have undoubtedly been beaten with the rest of the broader market in this recent crash, it was far more beaten down due to events outside of the general correction. First, Apples September iPod event amounted to nothing more than sell the rumor, sell the news. The stock got hammered from $170 from the date of the press release of the event to $152 on the day of the event itself -- concerns over Steve Jobs health trumped an otherwise average media event. The broader market barely started to correct at that time. As a matter of fact, the DJIA was actually flat during that week.

After Apples 5-day sell-off from $170 to $152, Apple headed into the next week with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers on Monday and the imminent collapse of AIG on Wednesday. Apple was simply the victim, as was every other stock in the market, of general liquidations, bearishness and panic selling. The stock price fell from $152 on Monday to a low of $120.00 that Thursday before participating in a two-day market rally sparked by a ban on short selling, which helped bring Apples stock price back up to $140.92 that Friday. That $12.00 fall in share price that week was due to general bearishness in the market and was part of the process of Apples correcting itself with the indices.

While the following Monday was largely uneventful for the market, Apples stock took a $10.00 tumble after Kathryn Huberty of Morgan Stanley cut her price target on Apple from $192 to $179 citing general weakness in the global economic environment. After struggling to stay afloat, Apple closed the week at $128.24. The following Monday, just one week after Kathryn Huberty cut her price target on Apple from $192 to $179, she allegedly felt that something fundamentally changed in five days that would warrant a second downgrade of Apple in as many weeks. She cut her price target from $179 to $115 citing the same nonsense she cited the week before. Apples stock price took a blood bath gapping down from $128.24 to $119.00 before collapsing into a death spiral where panic selling took the shares down $28.00 before it rebounded to $115.00 in inter-day trading. Unfortunately for Apple, congress decided not to pass the bailout bill that day which led to another $10.00 drop in the stock price before the close of trading. So in all fairness to Huberty, Apple would have probably taken a bath, but I doubt it would have collapsed $23.00 due to the failed bailout plan. Most stocks fell around 10% while Apple fell close to 20% that day.

The rest of the sell off from $105 to $85 was largely due to the collapse witnessed in the market in the ensuing weeks where 800 point down days in the DJIA became a thing of the norm. The reason I outline the specific details regarding the fall in Apples stock price is because its important to parse out exactly how much of the breakdown was due to the sell-off, P/E contraction and revaluation in the broader market, and how much of the collapse was owing to specific identifiable selling events which might have pushed Apples stock price lower than where it would have otherwise landed if not for those events. Its important because Apples current stock price might not be a general reflection of the market sentiment regarding Apples fundamentals, but rather the adverse result of a series of identifiable extra-market selling. If much of the fall was due to selling events rather than to revaluation and general contraction, then the current stock price might simply be the result of Apples inopportunity to retrace losses against broader market selling rather than the result of a bearish valuation. A case can be made here considering the fact that Apple has outperformed the market for the month of October. On a market rebound, one might expect the stock price to rally harder than the broader market. Whatever the case might be, Apples current valuation presents one of the best investment opportunities for 2009. More to come.

Disclosure: Long Apple, Google, RIM. The information contained in this blog is not to be taken as either an investment or trading recommendation, and serious traders or investors should consult with their own professional financial advisors before acting on any thoughts expressed in this publication.
post #2 of 66
More from this broken record again? What, every day?
post #3 of 66
if investors don't understand why Apple is worth buying (to hold), they quite likely shouldn't be putting money in stocks right now (unless they're purely seeking rapid returns, and they'd better be able to stand losing some money if they're chasing that horse).
post #4 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

More from this broken record again? What, every day?

I would read it everyday with the hope that some other idiot investors would read it as well
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post #5 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by dizzy13 View Post

I would read it everyday with the hope that some other idiot investor would read it as well

Must have happened - APPL is up $3.86!!!
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post #6 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by ByronVanArsdale View Post

Must have happened - APPL is up $3.86!!!

LOL, yeah thank god this dummy wrote an article stating the same thing for the 10th time. Everyone must have finally listened.... Riiiight
post #7 of 66
I wouldn't say that APPL is "radically undervalued", rather that many tech stocks are grossly overvalued. The general market crash has probably averted Tech Bubble 2.0.
post #8 of 66
The comparisons make some good points, but also are very short sighted in others.

78% EPS growth isn't going to hold up. So using that number for Apple's EPS growth is bogus.

Google's valuation is probably overdone, but there is also some reasoning behind it. Google is approaching a monopoly in search/advertising.

Apple's competitive position is much less secure. Their competitor, MS, in computers/operating systems has the monopoly position and makes more money.

Apple is dominant in mP3 players, but that position is also less secure as competitors gradually catch up and Apple finds itself with less and less room to improve their devices.

Same with the iPhone although early in the product's lifetime.

iTunes provides some measure of a barrier to competition as the other guys don't have nearly as ingrained of a service with their mp3 players and phones. And the Apple name is very strong brand.


Not to say you aren't right in many ways, but your article comes across as overconfident. I've also been Apple long since ~2000/2001.
post #9 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by ByronVanArsdale View Post

Must have happened - APPL is up $3.86!!!

Everything on the Nas is up today. Intel is up by 6%.
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post #10 of 66
Apple has enough spare cash to buy amazon!! Wow!
post #11 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

LOL, yeah thank god this dummy wrote an article stating the same thing for the 10th time. Everyone must have finally listened.... Riiiight

Are you going to add something constructive to this conversation? Or are you going to continue to eat up Internet real estate with insults that lack sound supporting arguments? While Andy may have used a couple of articles to beat down the same path, I believe the reports are informative to more novice investors, as they outline some fundamental principles behind market fluctuation and the way corporations are valued.

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post #12 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

More from this broken record again? What, every day?

talking about yourself cameronj?
post #13 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasper View Post

Are you going to add something constructive to this conversation? Or are you going to continue to eat up Internet real estate with insults that lack sound supporting arguments? While Andy may have used a couple of articles to beat down the same path, I believe the reports are informative to more novice investors, as they outline some fundamental principles behind market fluctuation and the way corporations are valued.

Telling novice investors not to buy this crap is about the most valuable lesson they can get. It's just an over-worded whine by an investor who has obviously lost a lot of money and has conspiracy issues. A novice investor would be smart to try to learn why the market works the way it does, not listen to this hack complain about mysterious unnamed (and named) forces thwarting the market.
post #14 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Telling novice investors not to buy this crap is about the most valuable lesson they can get. It's just an over-worded whine by an investor who has obviously lost a lot of money and has conspiracy issues. A novice investor would be smart to try to learn why the market works the way it does, not listen to this hack complain about mysterious unnamed (and named) forces thwarting the market.

yahoo finance forums are probably more to your liking mate, try it...
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/mb/AAPL

Lots of really insightful and intelligent posters like yourself, none of the nonsense you get on AI
post #15 of 66
While I don't disagree with the basic premise of the article, price-to-cash is one tiny metric and basing an entire investment on a particular metric is a losing strategy. Apple's price-to-cash is low in particular because its cash position is so high relative to the rest of its business. Only Microsoft has more cash (subtracting debt) on the chart, and Microsoft's earnings are vastly more diversified than Apple. If iPod+iPhone sales were to start drying up Apple would lose most of its value overnight, which is a risk that has to be factored in. In addition, Jobs' health, the Mac's ability to continue to gain market share against entrenched competitors, the iPhone's ability to grow against low-cost competitors... all these are risks.

Don't get me wrong, I see Apple succeeding brilliantly. But it's not an unreasonable position to take that Apple's risk/reward compared to its cash-on-hand is reasonably factored into its share price.
post #16 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by trip1ex View Post

The comparisons make some good points, but also are very short sighted in others.

78% EPS growth isn't going to hold up. So using that number for Apple's EPS growth is bogus.

Google's valuation is probably overdone, but there is also some reasoning behind it. Google is approaching a monopoly in search/advertising.

Apple's competitive position is much less secure. Their competitor, MS, in computers/operating systems has the monopoly position and makes more money.

Apple is dominant in mP3 players, but that position is also less secure as competitors gradually catch up and Apple finds itself with less and less room to improve their devices.

Same with the iPhone although early in the product's lifetime.

iTunes provides some measure of a barrier to competition as the other guys don't have nearly as ingrained of a service with their mp3 players and phones. And the Apple name is very strong brand.
...

I guess you didn't take the time to actually read this series of articles, hmm?

Your comments almost entirely fall into the same category of bull that Andy has spent so much time and effort explaining to you.

- 78% EPS "won't hold up"? based on ... "sez you"?
- Apple's "main competitor" is Microsoft? again, "sez you"? (most would point to Dell and HP)
- competitors are "catching up" in the PMP market? WTF?
- iPhone is in the same situation as PMP's??????

Nothing you say makes much sense and most of it is (apparently) based on nothing but your opinion. Right or wrong, at least the author did some research and has a cogent argument based on a great depth of knowledge.
In Windows, a window can be a document, it can be an application, or it can be a window that contains other documents or applications. Theres just no consistency. Its just a big grab bag of monkey...
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In Windows, a window can be a document, it can be an application, or it can be a window that contains other documents or applications. Theres just no consistency. Its just a big grab bag of monkey...
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post #17 of 66
If you are 17, and one of your parents just lost their job...will you be going out and getting a $1800 laptop for christmas?

If you lost your job, would you be going out getting a $1400 laptop just to have it?

Apple is down because consumers are hurting. That simple.
post #18 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by iOrlando View Post

If you are 17, and one of your parents just lost their job...will you be going out and getting a $1800 laptop for christmas?

If you lost your job, would you be going out getting a $1400 laptop just to have it?

Apple is down because consumers are hurting. That simple.



Please re-read your post in six months to see how wrong you are. Expansion in foreign markets will counteract any (if any) decline attributable to people losing jobs.
post #19 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Telling novice investors not to buy this crap is about the most valuable lesson they can get. It's just an over-worded whine by an investor who has obviously lost a lot of money and has conspiracy issues. A novice investor would be smart to try to learn why the market works the way it does, not listen to this hack complain about mysterious unnamed (and named) forces thwarting the market.

You're certainly entitled to your opinion, as is Andy. But you're not supporting your opinion with anything but insults and you're making accusations that aren't substantiated by arguments. So either make a change, or stop the BS posts, please.

Andy has proven resourceful and informative in recent weeks with valuable reports, two of which come to mind:

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...hone_goal.html

and

http://www.appleinsider.com/articles...4_6_in_q4.html

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post #20 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by iOrlando View Post

If you are 17, and one of your parents just lost their job...will you be going out and getting a $1800 laptop for christmas?

If you lost your job, would you be going out getting a $1400 laptop just to have it?

Apple is down because consumers are hurting. That simple.


I am unemployed and just bought a new MacBook Pro. A computer now is a necessity, not an option.
Yes, some may delay purchases, but enough to drop the stock price from $202 to $85??? I don't think so.

Why Apple's stock price would drop $10 on one analysts lowering their price target is beyond me, especially when any research shows that analyst has the worse record concerning Apple; clueless. Why did it not raise red flags when she lowered her price target from $190+ to $115 in one week not based on Apple's announced earnings, but based on whatever agenda she had.

Apple going down like it did made as much as sense as the rapid increase in the price of oil. A real snowball event. OIl would go up $10-$15 a barrel based on a hurricane or other possible event, then would not go back down when the hurricane didn't materialize..Apple would go down $20 based on an analyst comment(missing iphones anyone) and wouldn't go back up when the comment was proved to be bull.
post #21 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by stustanley View Post

Apple has enough spare cash to buy amazon!! Wow!

I say AAPL should buy Sony (SNE) 51% or 100% and still have cash left over. On 2nd thoughts maybe buy Sony in 6 months time, it'll be cheaper again.
post #22 of 66
Look, at the end of the day, value comes from forecasted free cash flows (i.e., actual operating cash in minus operating cash out, net of operating working capital changes and long-term investment spending) discounted at the appropriate cost of capital (i.e., the return that investors can get from risk-equivalent assets).

No more, no less. The rest is fluff.

This analysis, while somewhat simplistic, is implicitly getting at both key metrics. By focusing on the non-GAAP revenue and earnings, as well as the cash position (which is a consequence of the high free cash flow) the author (Andy) is proxying for FCF; by focusing on Amazon, RIM, and Google, Andy is implicitly looking at risk-equivalent assets. His main argument is that AAPL is undervalued at current levels.

Unfortunately, I do not have the time to present a detailed calculation of FCF and cost of capital here, but the directionality of Andy's overall conclusion (despite the simplified analysis) makes sense. I certainly have put (some of) my money where my mouth/analysis is. (But please note this is not a recommendation -- not by a long shot -- for any of you to do so; I am just sharing a personal view, that's all).
post #23 of 66
Not all Wall Street analysts are so clueless about AAPL. The research note from Credit Suisse's Bill Shope argues along many of the same lines as Andy does:

Quote:
New non-GAAP measure makes iPhone profitability more transparent.
Apple began issuing non-GAAP financials that reverse the ratable
accounting for the iPhone. This more appropriate financial measure boosts
the reported September quarter revenues by 48% and more than doubled
EPS

Lowering estimates and introducing non-GAAP forecasts. For fiscal
2009, we are forecasting GAAP revenues of $34.85 billion and EPS of
$5.08, versus $35.4 billion and $5.19 previously. Our fiscal 2009 non-GAAP
estimates are $40.02 billion and $6.99.

Reiterate Outperform and 12-month target price of $135. Apple is trading
at 13.9 times our calendar 2009 non-GAAP EPS estimate. U.S. consumer
exposure remains a risk, but iPhone profit strength and the leaner valuation
make the risk-reward for the shares far more compelling.

Personally I think that Andy is spot on with his analysis and it's great to read financial research that's both enlightening and fun to read!
post #24 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

Look, at the end of the day, value comes from forecasted free cash flows (i.e., actual operating cash in minus operating cash out, net of operating working capital changes and long-term investment spending) discounted at the appropriate cost of capital (i.e., the return that investors can get from risk-equivalent assets).

No more, no less. The rest is fluff.

This analysis, while somewhat simplistic, is implicitly getting at both key metrics. By focusing on the non-GAAP revenue and earnings, as well as the cash position (which is a consequence of the high free cash flow) the author (Andy) is proxying for FCF; by focusing on Amazon, RIM, and Google, Andy is implicitly looking at risk-equivalent assets. His main argument is that AAPL is undervalued at current levels.

Unfortunately, I do not have the time to present a detailed calculation of FCF and cost of capital here, but the directionality of Andy's overall conclusion (despite the simplified analysis) makes sense. I certainly have put (some of) my money where my mouth/analysis is. (But please note this is not a recommendation -- not by a long shot -- for any of you to do so; I am just sharing a personal view, that's all).

Thank you. This is exactly what I'm teasing out in this article. The only problem is that investors don't pay attention to metrics such as P/FCF. So you have to reconstruct it in a way where the powers of cash come to light. Notice I use the trailing P/E ratio in my analysts with no mention made to forward P/E. I do this for two reasons. First, forward P/E is based on analyst hallucinations about the future while trailing P/E is how the company has ACTUALLY performed, and secondly, most investors, whether right or wrong, tend to focus on trailing P/E as the primary metric of valuation-thus it would be ill advised to ignore it.

I use operating cash flow as a huge valuation source since how much a company derives in cash from its primary operations is literally getting to the core of the company. Its burning away all of the nonsense and telling the investor what a company is really worth. The big problem, as I see it, is that the market simply doesn't look at P/FCF. Most people talk in terms of P/E ratios when they should be speaking in terms of cash. Lucky for Apple, that cash they are producing will eventually make its way to the bottom line under its deferred revenue mechanism.
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post #25 of 66
If we just get a palin recession, the stock is ok valued and the other stocks mentioned are still overvalued. Apple's quarterly CC, discusses non-GAAP numbers and its PE at around 12, all backward looking. The whole economy and the GDP has been credit driven, even though Apple has not debt. If the consumer pulls back dramatically, it would get hit AAPL as well. So caution is warranted. Most imprtant, got to have holding power.

The rest of the market has "low PE" is I sit on the horse backwards and look what has gone buy.
Just look at the metal, steel, oil companies. Dirt cheap PEs looking back, while the underlying commodity collapsed and this is not reflected in the P or the E.
post #26 of 66
Since knowledge is power, analysis chock-full with relatively unpublicized metrics
is always welcome.

Sell-side investment advice is bimodal, with many potential investors just hearing
soundbites from the likes of Cramer and Orman. Others pay up for the reports of
the over two dozen analysts who file estimates with First Call. Zaky's stuff fills
a void.

His relative valuation work is especially insightful, as it highlights a defect in
the short thesis that Apple fell off a cliff only due to the Wall St. derivatives mess
and housing bubble collapse creating a disturbance in the consumer confidence force field.
That is, if AAPL is to be trashed due this reason, the others should be moreso.
(My own take is that Apple's aspirational-type of appeal will buffer it from
a holiday downturn.)

Due to the tech stock divergence, there are a few other factors to be explored.
One is that AAPL stock is traditionally high-beta -- if it paid a dividend like
INTC or MSFT, perhaps the charts would smooth out, even though dividends
have been a mirage lately for the traditionally low-beta, low P/E financial stocks.
Or, perhaps AAPL really is specially targeted by a mini-cabal of short-lenders
in a feedback loop with the second-derivative of analyst downgrades and
AAPL ticker highlights on CNBC, all amplified by program & algorithmic trading.

Zaky, Muller, and Deagol are to be commended for ferreting this stuff out.
Their grassroots analysis reminds me of Eric Yang's scribing of yesteryore -- last
I heard, years ago, is that he traded AAPL analysis for med school. If you cross
paths with him, send him best wishes ...
post #27 of 66
Andy,

I apprecaite your work and you posting it here very much.
I hope you will continue to do so.
post #28 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by lolick View Post

Andy,

I apprecaite your work and you posting it here very much.
I hope you will continue to do so.

seconded
post #29 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

seconded

Thirded (ok, not a word). Well articulated. I think that we all get the macro forces working against Apple right now but your post does a REALLY good job of parsing the micro-specifics that rationalize the stock price relative to its peers.

Much appreciated.

Mark
post #30 of 66
( oops - removed )

Many of the most important software concepts were invented in the 70s and forgotten in the 80s.

Reply

Many of the most important software concepts were invented in the 70s and forgotten in the 80s.

Reply
post #31 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post

Please re-read your post in six months to see how wrong you are. Expansion in foreign markets will counteract any (if any) decline attributable to people losing jobs.

Please re-read YOUR post in 6 months and see how wrong you are. There is no expansion in foreign markets. Not at all to the scale it could be. Sales will not increase in foreign markets. The United States is not the only country going through economic crisis. The stock market around the world is suffering right now and thousands of jobs are being lost in markets in; Asia, Europe, North/South America, and Australia. We are not the only country with a decline so the global market is not going to rescue any company at this point.
post #32 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel0418 View Post

Please re-read YOUR post in 6 months and see how wrong you are. .

OK we shall see.I will be surprised if there is any significant drop whatsoever overall.
There is also the recently updated portable line to add to the equation.
post #33 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel0418 View Post

Please re-read YOUR post in 6 months and see how wrong you are. There is no expansion in foreign markets.

That's one glass-half-empty vote for the meaninglessness of any forthcoming Apple
iPhone deal in China, or the build-out of Apple stores there! Why should we trust
this contrary opinion more than one from someone who has a direct line to
the overseas consumer, like AAPL BOD member Andrea Jung?

And, to the worthy in the grandparent posting, who wonders about those with
job losses not affording Apple gear, here's a good one from this morning's
Wall St. Journal:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1225...tml?mod=crnews

Instead of hurting Apple, the (real or perceived, no matter) downturn can
actually benefit Apple, in this case via iPhone/iPod Touch uptake.

The entire thesis that economic woes hurt Apple particularly worse may be suspect.
Apple store shoppers are not the same as the WalMart demographic, though
Apple has that covered too, with IPods at Costco, etc. It may be that the
*last* thing given up as gifts are Apple goods, since they are so high-quality compared
to the plebian while-box computer, .mp3 player, and cheap plastic cellphone riff-faff.
post #34 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Telling novice investors not to buy this crap is about the most valuable lesson they can get. It's just an over-worded whine by an investor who has obviously lost a lot of money and has conspiracy issues. A novice investor would be smart to try to learn why the market works the way it does, not listen to this hack complain about mysterious unnamed (and named) forces thwarting the market.

You're negative, mean, arrogant, haughty and brash with each of your words. You are not nearly as well-informed as you think you are.

I do not like you.
post #35 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by iOrlando View Post

If you are 17, and one of your parents just lost their job...will you be going out and getting a $1800 laptop for christmas?

If you lost your job, would you be going out getting a $1400 laptop just to have it?

Apple is down because consumers are hurting. That simple.

Your assertion is completely illogical.

"Apple is down because consumers are hurting, and can't afford new laptops?"

Apple's stock price is down because the entire world market is down.

"EVERYBODY's stock is down, NEEEGAH!!!"

Apple's profits and growth, however, are positive double-digits right now, which means people are buying plenty of laptops, regardless of the economy.

The first person to identify my quote wins a dollar. LOL....
post #36 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by echosonic View Post

You're negative, mean, arrogant, haughty and brash with each of your words. You are not nearly as well-informed as you think you are.

Keep thinking that.

Ivy league economics degree, founded the investing club at said University.

You can not like me, but listening to Zaky (outside the numerical analysis, which I have no argument with) is inviting bad investing decisions. He blames all sorts of the wrong things for what has happened to his (and my) AAPL stock.

It doesn't surprise me that some people are glad to read what he's writing - he likes to give people someone to blame. Makes people feel good to be able to be angry at someone, rather than have to blame themselves for not understanding how the market functions and for not seeing the fall coming (I didn't see it coming either). But it's pointless.
post #37 of 66
Cameronj, for somebody that didn't see the September/October collapse coming how can you sound so confident about anything? The Sep/Oct collapse wasn't exactly hard to see coming and I didn't even go to college much less start the investing club at an Ivy League University \

Andy was brilliant in predicting Apple's fourth quarter numbers, period. Why don't you put your predictions up against Andy's for Apple's first quarter?
post #38 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Ivy league economics degree, founded the investing club at said University.

Wow, that has to be one of the most snobbish responses I have ever seen. Having an Ivy League degree does not make you better than everyone else, despite what they probably tell you at those schools. Not everybody has the money to attend Ivy League schools, and I'm sure I can find plenty of people at my "lowly" Big Ten school that are plenty smarter than a lot of people at Harvard, Cornell, or any other Ivy League school. Not having a rich daddy or connections doesn't make someone a less informed person.

Sorry to digress, I'll get off my soap box now.
post #39 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by cameronj View Post

Keep thinking that.

Ivy league economics degree, founded the investing club at said University.

You can not like me, but listening to Zaky (outside the numerical analysis, which I have no argument with) is inviting bad investing decisions. He blames all sorts of the wrong things for what has happened to his (and my) AAPL stock.

It doesn't surprise me that some people are glad to read what he's writing - he likes to give people someone to blame. Makes people feel good to be able to be angry at someone, rather than have to blame themselves for not understanding how the market functions and for not seeing the fall coming (I didn't see it coming either). But it's pointless.

Whats the difference between a recession and a depression?

If your neighbor loses his job, its a recession.
If you lose your job, its a depression.


How many times does Microsoft have to screw up their operating system before OS X take over?

Probably about one more time.
Then Linux gets a bunch of the low end and Apple the mid and high end.


When you disagree with Andy, why not explain why you disagree in a respectable manner, and present your alternative?

Ill let you answer that one.
post #40 of 66
Quote:
Originally Posted by one9deuce View Post

Andy was brilliant in predicting Apple's fourth quarter numbers, period. Why don't you put your predictions up against Andy's for Apple's first quarter?

Because I don't try to predict earnings. As I've said, I have no disagreement with his math on the numbers, both for Apple and the market. Its his whining, blaming tone when he tries to find reasons why Apple is priced at $100 instead of $300 that drives me nuts. He can't accept that its the market, stupid. It's not a conspiracy.
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