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Piper Jaffray addresses 12 more 'unanswered Apple questions'

post #1 of 40
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Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster on Tuesday issued one of his trademark reports to address a number 'unanswered questions surrounding the Apple story,' such as when the company plans to next update its iPhone and the prospects for an Apple netbook.

The report follows a series of similar installments dating back to May of 2006. Munster addressed 16 Apple questions last November and followed up with answers to 15 more questions in May.

As was the case with those reports, Munster's questions and answers are being republished in full in order to offer readers the full benefit of the analyst's insight:

Questions on General Business Operations:

What is the current state of Apple's business?
Following 25 hours of counting iPhone and Mac sales in U.S. Apple retail stores across the country and recent NPD data on Macs and iPods, we believe the current quarter is tracking in-line with Street expectations. Driven by the Oct. launch of new MacBooks, Macs (and notebooks in particular) are selling well despite the weakened consumer confidence. We have analyzed NPD data for the 1st month of the Dec. quarter (Oct.) which is up 28% y/y; it leads us to a Mac number of between 2.5m-2.7m (we believe Street consensus is ~2.6m Macs in the quarter). This range implies y/y Mac unit growth of 8%-16% vs. the Street at 13% y/y growth. That said, iPod growth continues to slow, limiting somewhat the positive impact from the new Macs. Net-net we believe the Dec. quarter is tracking in-line with Street expectations.

How might Apple's view the challenging economy?
We believe Apple strategy in the December quarter is similar to the September quarter. The company is taking a disciplined approach to costs and build rates for the holiday quarter. In order to do this, we believe the company is managing its component orders based on sell-through of their products using daily sales reports from its own retail stores and its largest channel partners. The result is a measured approach to relatively low visibility into sales during the holiday quarter, particularly with the most important weeks of iPod coming in the next few weeks.

How should we think about Apple's gross margin guidance for FY09?
Several times since issuing its FY09 guidance of "about 30%", Apple has reiterated the same guidance but has placed increasing emphasis on the word "about." We continue to expect upside to the guided gross margin level and believe 31% or slightly higher is achievable in FY09.

Mac Related Questions:

How are the new aluminum (and older plastic) MacBooks selling?
Following 25 hours of counting Mac sales in U.S. Apple retail stores across the country and recent NPD data on Macs, we believe the new aluminum MacBooks ($1,299) are selling well. While we do not believe sales are exceeding Apple's own internal estimates, as the stores have had ample supply throughout the launch, we now believe the Mac unit number for the Dec. quarter may exceed our and Street expectations of 2.6m. We note that the new product will likely lift Mac ASP's; during our in-store checks we found that the new aluminum models (priced $200 higher at the entry point than the previous white plastic MacBook model) are vastly more popular than the newly priced white plastic model ($999). We caution that our in-store checks do not reflect the direct sales to the Education market where the $999 model is likely finding more success, but we believe the net effect of the new aluminum MacBooks will be a lift in Mac ASP's. We are modeling for Mac ASP's to rise sequentially from $1,386 in the Sept. quarter (in which lower-priced Education sales prevail) to $1,552 in the Dec. quarter (in which the higher-priced aluminum MacBook is now available).

Will Apple release a netbook?
Steve Jobs has indicated that the company "doesn't do cheap", and has not yet entered what he feels to be a "nascent market" for low-cost laptops, called netbooks. We believe that Apple has focused its efforts on the iPhone to accomplish much of what a netbook accomplishes: a mobile web browser. That said, we believe Apple could find success with a product in its lineup between the iPhone and the MacBook. If Apple chose to release such a product, we believe the most likely candidate would be an 11" MacBook Air priced between $800 and $1,000, which could be released some time in CY09. Further down the road, Apple could leverage its multi-touch patent portfolio for a product with a similar price range and feature set in the form of a tablet Mac, which is more likely to be released in CY10 or beyond.

iPhone Questions:

What is Apple's gross margin on the iPhone?
Using numbers released following Apple's Sept. quarter, we now believe the ASP of the iPhone (from Apple to the carriers) is about $630. However, we also believe that Apple will be able to lower its price of the phone to carriers by up to $150 in the next 6 months, but maintain its margins, by leveraging falling component pricing. As such, we are modeling the iPhone ASP to be about $475 in the Dec. quarter. We believe the gross margin on the iPhone is higher than the company-wide gross margin, which will provide a source of earnings leverage as the iPhone grows as a percentage of sales in FY09. Note that we are modeling for the iPhone to grow from 5.7% of sales in FY08 to 18.4% of sales in FY09. Specifically, we believe Apple's gross margin on the iPhone is in the high 30s or low 40s.

How far are we into the iPhone's international rollout?
By the end of CY08, Apple has indicated that it will expand the iPhone's addressable subscriber base significantly. In other words, the iPhone's international rollout is still in its early stages. According to our checks on the iPhone international website, availability will grow from a subscriber base of about 660m subs in 44 countries in late Aug. to about 989m subs in 73 countries by the end of the year. This represents 50% growth in addressable subscribers ahead of or during the holiday quarter. For example, since Aug., three Russian wireless providers including MTS (61m subs), Beeline (42m subs), and MegaFon (37m subs) have launched the iPhone 3G. Also note that we continue to believe Apple will launch the iPhone with one or two carriers in China in CY09, adding either China Mobile (550m subs) and/or China Unicom (128m subs), which would further expand the sub base by 13% (China Unicom only), 51% (China Mobile only), or 63% (both Chinese carriers).

Will Apple release the iPhone in China?
We continue to believe Apple will launch the iPhone with one or two carriers in China in CY09, adding either China Mobile (550m subs) and/or China Unicom (128m subs). The company has indicated that it remains focused on launching the iPhone in China, but several hurdles remain. The dust has not yet settled in China regarding the licensing of the 3G networks among the major carriers. We expect the Chinese government to make announcements on the licensing within the next 1-2 months (possibly sooner). In addition, the inclusion of Wi-Fi in the iPhone may be a limiting factor in China. For example, Apple does not yet sell its iPod touch in China possibly due to the inclusion of Wi-Fi. Apple could solve this issue by creating a version of the iPhone software that disables the Wi-Fi features in the Chinese models.

When will Apple release a new iPhone?
Most investors believe the iPhone hardware will be the same throughout 2009 as it is today; we disagree. While Apple has indicated that it differentiates the iPhone from its competitors by software, the company has not addressed its strategy to segment the market by expanding the iPhone lineup as it has the iPod lineup. Specifically, Apple could offer a SKU at a lower price than the current $199 entry price and/or a premium SKU at or above the higher priced $299 16GB model. Apple could lower the price by removing features like 3G and GPS; alternatively, Apple could make a premium SKU with a sleeker design using higher-end materials, more processing power, better graphics and more storage. We believe Steve Jobs' comments on the Sept. quarter conference call regarding Apple's iPhone strategy in CY09 support our thesis of new iPhone models at different prices in CY09: "I think we have to be the best. And I think we have to not leave a price umbrella underneath us."

iPod Related Questions:

How should investors think about iPod growth going forward?
Growth in the iPod business is clearly under pressure, with y/y growth coming down to 6% y/y in FY08 vs. 31% y/y in FY07. We are modeling for a -12% y/y contraction on a unit basis in the iPod business for FY09. That said, the iPod is an important product for Apple as an entry point into the Apple device ecosystem, and introduces users to other Apple products like the iPhone and the Mac. Moreover, Apple has indicated that there are currently 65m active iTunes accounts. Given the total 174m iPods sold to date (through Sep-08), this equates to 2.8 iPods per active iTunes accounts. However, we believe some users and families share a single iTunes account for several iPods. Assuming 2 iPods per person implies 87m iPod users (including older iPods that are no longer used). In other words, with 87m iPod users, Apple has a large addressable base for iPhone and Mac sales from which it can draw in the coming years.

Questions on Apple's Retails Stores:

How many retail stores will Apple open next year?
While Apple opened a record-high 50 retail stores in FY08, we expect the store openings to slow in FY09. Specifically, we believe Apple will open 20-30 stores in FY09. The company is taking a disciplined approach to new lease obligations given the current macroeconomic reality and the retail initiative is also maturing to a point where slower growth is warranted. Apple is nearing a saturation point for top-tier malls in the U.S., where about 300 U.S. locations is a rough ceiling for specialty retailers. Apple's trend has been to focus on its international store openings more than it has in the past. For example, Apple has not reached the same critical mass in Canada, the U.K., or Australia as it has in the U.S. We also expect Apple to add more stores in China following a successful launch of its Beijing store. In other words, we expect Apple to open stores in fewer new countries in FY09, but we anticipate Apple to strategically increase the number of stores in countries it has already entered. Such a plan would allow Apple retail to invest in growth in Apple's core international markets.

How will Apple stores sell the iPhone 3G as a gift during the holidays?
Due to changes in the activation process (in-store instead of at home), the iPhone 3G is more difficult to purchase as a gift. AT&T offers gift cards for the iPhone 3G and voice and data plans, but a simple gift card is not as exciting as the phone itself. To solve this, it would make sense if Apple follows AT&T footsteps and offers an iPhone 3G gift cards this holiday season. If this is successful, we see it as a positive for shares of AAPL given most investors are not expecting a strong holiday period for the iPhone.

Munster maintains a Buy rating on Apple shares with a $250 price target.
post #2 of 40
$250 price target? That sounds wildly optimistic for the next couple of years at least.
post #3 of 40
It wouldn't be Munster if there wasn't a $250 price target. They will either need 100% growth, or significant increases in the economic outlook to get there. AAPL P/E is around 16 now. Never would have expected that...
post #4 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

$250 price target? That sounds wildly optimistic for the next couple of years at least.

Very optimistic

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iPhone, iPod
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iPhone, iPod
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post #5 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

When will Apple release a new iPhone?
Most investors believe the iPhone hardware will be the same throughout 2009 as it is today; we disagree. While Apple has indicated that it differentiates the iPhone from its competitors by software, the company has not addressed its strategy to segment the market by expanding the iPhone lineup as it has the iPod lineup. Specifically, Apple could offer a SKU at a lower price than the current $199 entry price and/or a premium SKU at or above the higher priced $299 16GB model. Apple could lower the price by removing features like 3G and GPS; alternatively, Apple could make a premium SKU with a sleeker design using higher-end materials, more processing power, better graphics and more storage. We believe Steve Jobs' comments on the Sept. quarter conference call regarding Apple's iPhone strategy in CY09 support our thesis of new iPhone models at different prices in CY09: "I think we have to be the best. And I think we have to not leave a price umbrella underneath us."

I have a friend who is a Genius at an Apple Retail store and he told me that a very high percentage of customers who come in for technical support have less than 1GB of data on their iPhone.
Many people do not use the iphone for music or videos.
They do use it as a phone and for apps.
If Apple wanted to offer a lower priced iPhone, the best way would be to introduce smaller capacity models.
This keeps the iPhone platform consistent as far as hardware capabilities.


What I would like to see:

8GB iPod Touch = $229
16GB iPod Touch = $299
32GB iPod Touch = $399

8GB iPod Touch 3G = $29 with 2yr contract **
16GB iPod Touch 3G = $129 with 2yr contract
32GB iPod Touch 3G = $229 with 2yr contract

2GB iPhone 3G = $29 with 2yr contract **
4GB iPhone 3G = $129 with 2yr contract **
8GB iPhone 3G = $199 with 2yr contract
16GB iPhone 3G = $299 with 2yr contract

**I think in the current economy these would be hot products.
$29 to buy and $29 a month for unlimited mobile internet.
It would also help to expand the iPhone OS user base and further establish it as the mobile OS standard.
post #6 of 40
Apple grew their revenue by almost 50% last year, and their profit by almost 85%. The numbers say they're growing even during this downturn. Plus that have a proven pipeline that routinely delivers new market-changing products, and they have the cash on hand to keep innovating.

What other large blue-chip company can demonstrate that kind of growth today, and potential for growth tomorrow?
post #7 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

8GB iPod Touch 3G = $29 with 2yr contract **

a contract for what. let me guess 3G internet. that's call an Iphone.

honestly I don't see the price going below $150 for an 8GB phone model any time soon. and that's with an incentive from ATT. they would balance it with better components like a better battery before they drop the price too long. ATT will even want that. they are already semi hosed due to too many folks in their less than stellar 3G network they need time to catch up
post #8 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

a contract for what. let me guess 3G internet. that's call an Iphone.

honestly I don't see the price going below $150 for an 8GB phone model any time soon. and that's with an incentive from ATT. they would balance it with better components like a better battery before they drop the price too long. ATT will even want that. they are already semi hosed due to too many folks in their less than stellar 3G network they need time to catch up

Many people don't want to leave Verizon but they do want an iPhone.
This way they can keep a basic Verizon phone for voice calls and do all their email/web/GPS/apps stuff on their iPod Touch 3G.

AT&T 3G network needs to increase in capacity but the iPod Touch 3G would not be adding any high bandwidth voice traffic to the network.

Again it is important to remember Android and Blackberry are strong competitors and as Steve said "I think we have to not leave a price umbrella underneath us." Also the old iPod platform is a relic on life support. Apple's future is in Mac OS X Mobile. Sometime in the coming year the installed base of Mac OS X Mobile will exceed Mac OS X.
post #9 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

Many people don't want to leave Verizon but they do want an iPhone.
This way they can keep a basic Verizon phone for voice calls and do all their email/web/GPS/apps stuff on their iPod Touch 3G.

That's an iPhone.... are you saying they should make an internet ONLY device? An iPhone without the phone but WITH 3g service? Still would need service, and a contract. I don't think dropping the phone part of things would drop the price much on service either.

Quote:
AT&T 3G network needs to increase in capacity but the iPod Touch 3G would not be adding any high bandwidth voice traffic to the network.

Voice traffic isn't high bandwidth really.
post #10 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by disposableidentity View Post

Apple grew their revenue by almost 50% last year, and their profit by almost 85%. The numbers say they're growing even during this downturn. Plus that have a proven pipeline that routinely delivers new market-changing products, and they have the cash on hand to keep innovating.

What other large blue-chip company can demonstrate that kind of growth today, and potential for growth tomorrow?

In a way, I agree, but there are problems with this. First, the stock market is not the consumer market.

Even if you apply your numbers to the stock price, it still falls well short. 90*1.5 = 135 90*1.85 = 166. Yesterday, someone posted a chart that showed Apple stock following the market very closely, Apple's own fortunes doesn't seem to mean much in terms of breaking away from the pack in stock price.

I just don't see a realistic way that AAPL will hit $250 in 12 months.
post #11 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Will Apple release a netbook?
Steve Jobs has indicated that the company "doesn't do cheap", and has not yet entered what he feels to be a "nascent market" for low-cost laptops, called netbooks. We believe that Apple has focused its efforts on the iPhone to accomplish much of what a netbook accomplishes: a mobile web browser. That said, we believe Apple could find success with a product in its lineup between the iPhone and the MacBook. If Apple chose to release such a product, we believe the most likely candidate would be an 11" MacBook Air priced between $800 and $1,000, which could be released some time in CY09. Further down the road, Apple could leverage its multi-touch patent portfolio for a product with a similar price range and feature set in the form of a tablet Mac, which is more likely to be released in CY10 or beyond.

Interesting. Does it make sense to have a 13" MB and 13" MPA? Why not shrink the MBA to 10" and sell it as a top quality netbook.
post #12 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by RichL View Post

$250 price target? That sounds wildly optimistic for the next couple of years at least.

Agreed.

I think AAPL is a pretty good buy right now, at $90, but it'll be a looong time before the stock sees the north side of $150 again, much less $250. If Munster's price target is supposed to happen in the next 12-18 months, he is on some especially potent variety of crack. The worldwide recession is going to last at least that long.

But if you're a buy-and-hold investor, it's kinda like 'So what if it takes awhile for the stock to come back'. There's lots of nice blue chip stocks 'on sale' right now at valuations that haven't been seen in years. And even if you don't believe that their stock prices are going to move much anytime soon, some of them are offering some pretty darn good dividends, in the 5-6% range.


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post #13 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by robb01 View Post

Very optimistic

Or very naive.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of a rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #14 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider

That said, we believe Apple could find success with a product in its lineup between the iPhone and the MacBook.

If Apple chose to release such a product, we believe the most likely candidate would be an 11" MacBook Air priced between $800 and $1,000, which could be released some time in CY09.


Really? Aren't the hot-selling netbooks going for $350-500? So Apple's supposed to make a big dent in that market segment with a product that costs double what the competition does?

Not that Steve, being Steve, wouldn't try it, but I wouldn't expect great results at that kind of price delta.

Additionally, an 11" MB Air doesn't seem like it'd be as portable as a netbook... most of those have 9" screens.

Maybe we're being a bit too tame here in thinking of what would best fit between an iPhone and a 13" notebook?

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post #15 of 40
Apple does have iPhone-specific gift cards available (at least in U.S. retail stores) for the exact purchase price of the iPhone 3G.

I hope they promote the heck out of them so people understand that it *is* simple to give an iPhone (gift card) this Christmas.

(It would be really great if you could buy an iPhone at full-price and be reimbursed once you activate it via iTunes. Then customers could give a physical phone instead of a gift card.)
post #16 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Really? Aren't the hot-selling netbooks going for $350-500? So Apple's supposed to make a big dent in that market segment with a product that costs double what the competition does?

Not that Steve, being Steve, wouldn't try it, but I wouldn't expect great results at that kind of price delta.

Additionally, an 11" MB Air doesn't seem like it'd be as portable as a netbook... most of those have 9" screens.

Maybe we're being a bit too tame here in thinking of what would best fit between an iPhone and a 13" notebook?

...

Apple never competes on price.

If you compare Mini with other low end PC, the Mini costs at least 2x as much. I can get a Dell for about $250 to $300.

If you compare Macbook to other laptops, again, the Macbook costs at least 2x as much. Many PC laptops (even 15" ones) sell for $400 to $500.

So, if majority netbooks sell for $300 to $400, I won't be surprised if Apple's entry costs $800. $1000 may be a stretch.

However, I think it won't be a 11" Air. It would be a 11" tablet Mac OSX with multi-touch.
post #17 of 40
In addition, the inclusion of Wi-Fi in the iPhone may be a limiting factor in China

I don't get this part.

There aren't many public Wifi in China. However, that doesn't mean people cannot use Wifi at home. Why is it a limiting factor?
post #18 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by reciprocity View Post

Apple does have iPhone-specific gift cards available (at least in U.S. retail stores) for the exact purchase price of the iPhone 3G.

I hope they promote the heck out of them so people understand that it *is* simple to give an iPhone (gift card) this Christmas.

(It would be really great if you could buy an iPhone at full-price and be reimbursed once you activate it via iTunes. Then customers could give a physical phone instead of a gift card.)

Recent news says Walmart will start selling iPhone AFTER Xmas (12/28).

I think Apple/Walmart are betting on selling to people returning unwanted gifts, combined with gift cards.

It makes a lot of sense. It is impossible to buy a cell phone as a surprise gift. You need the person's SSN to sign up, and only the cell phone subscriber can sign the monthly contract.
post #19 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnqh View Post

Apple never competes on price.

If you compare Mini with other low end PC, the Mini costs at least 2x as much. I can get a Dell for about $250 to $300.

If you compare Macbook to other laptops, again, the Macbook costs at least 2x as much. Many PC laptops (even 15" ones) sell for $400 to $500.


Umm... not exactly. Apple notebooks definitely do cost more than the bargain PC notebooks, but you also get more with an Apple notebook too. If you do a careful 'apple-to-apples' analysis (no pun intended) against similarly equipped/spec'd PC notebooks, Apple notebooks certainly do not cost 'at least 2x as much'.

So Apple does compete on price, actually, or at least they're *aware* of price. They don't try to beat PCs on price, but they do try to price at least within shouting distance of what a comparably-spec'd and equipped PC would be. Most of the time, anyways. \

Of course, some things are hard to put an exact value on, such as Apple's included i-Apps, better security, unibody construction, etc.


Quote:
However, I think it won't be a 11" Air. It would be a 11" tablet Mac OSX with multi-touch.


Interesting. I like it. That's thinking outside the box a little more, which I think Apple is likely to do here.


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post #20 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Umm... not exactly. Apple notebooks definitely do cost more than the bargain PC notebooks, but you also get more with an Apple notebook too. If you do a careful 'apple-to-apples' analysis (no pun intended), Apple notebooks certainly do not cost 'at least 2x as much'.

So Apple does compete on price, actually, or at least they're aware of price. They don't try to beat PCs on price, but they do try to price at least within shouting distance of what a comparably-spec'd and equipped PC would be.

Of course, some things are hard to put a value on, such as Apple's included i-Apps, better security, etc.




Interesting. I like it. That's thinking outside the box a little more, which I think Apple is likely to do here.


...

I am not trying to do mac-vs-pc comparison.

My point is, Apple never go for the low-margin low-quality market. They would make a good product people want and sell for higher price.
post #21 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by johnqh View Post

I am not trying to do mac-vs-pc comparison.

My point is, Apple never go for the low-margin low-quality market. They would make a good product people want and sell for higher price.


Of course. But even there, there is a limit in how much of a price delta ppl are willing to accept.

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post #22 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

If Apple wanted to offer a lower priced iPhone, the best way would be to introduce smaller capacity models.

Apple already did that--and it didn't do well. The higher capacity iPhones sold much, much better than the lower capacity, cheaper iPhones. People seem to buy the highest capacity, even if they won't use it. The lower capacity iPod Nanos were never great sellers, either.
post #23 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Agreed.

I think AAPL is a pretty good buy right now, at $90, but it'll be a looong time before the stock sees the north side of $150 again, much less $250. If Munster's price target is supposed to happen in the next 12-18 months, he is on some especially potent variety of crack. The worldwide recession is going to last at least that long.

But if you're a buy-and-hold investor, it's kinda like 'So what if it takes awhile for the stock to come back'. There's lots of nice blue chip stocks 'on sale' right now at valuations that haven't been seen in years. And even if you don't believe that their stock prices are going to move much anytime soon, some of them are offering some pretty darn good dividends, in the 5-6% range.


...

i wouldn't say A LONG TIME until $150. $250 might be a stretch. but estimates say that the current downturn should slow or end around mid 2009. Assuming that is correct, the stock market will pick up even before then so I don't' think one has to wait that long. Stock can surge quick. Look at how quickly Apple fell and rise in the charts. To go from 90-150 is not that hard to reach. And how long do recessions generally last? 1 year or so.
post #24 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by reciprocity View Post

Apple does have iPhone-specific gift cards available (at least in U.S. retail stores) for the exact purchase price of the iPhone 3G.

I hope they promote the heck out of them so people understand that it *is* simple to give an iPhone (gift card) this Christmas.

(It would be really great if you could buy an iPhone at full-price and be reimbursed once you activate it via iTunes. Then customers could give a physical phone instead of a gift card.)

If i give my friend an iphone how do I know he/she wants to pay $80 a month? How about giving a regular gift card instead for the entire apple store. that seems a better idea so that people can use their gift.
post #25 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by bertyao View Post

Stock can surge quick. Look at how quickly Apple fell and rise in the charts. To go from 90-150 is not that hard to reach. And how long do recessions generally last? 1 year or so.


Except that this is going to be a really, really bad recession, by most indications. Probably on the scale of the 1973-75 recession, or 1981-1982.

Both of those lasted a long time too... about 16 months each, which is double what a typical recession lasts.

The 'we're going to be fine by mid-2009' crowd is whistling past the graveyard. One major problem is that exports have been a bright spot for the US, but now it's apparent that the recession is going to be worldwide, so demand for our exports is going to slow. Pile that on top of the mountain of other bad news.

If you're waiting for AAPL to skyrocket, you'll be waiting awhile. That said, I'd think long-term and buy it up at its current price of $90. It could still drop from there in the short-term (it was at 80 just last week), but probably not a huge amount, and in this market you should think long-term anyway.


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post #26 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster on Tuesday issued one of his trademark reports to address a number 'unanswered questions surrounding the Apple story,' such as when the company plans to next update its iPhone and the prospects for an Apple netbook.

How about a "trademark report" on how often Piper Jaffray is WRONG vs. how often they're RIGHT? That might lend some credibility to their ability to answer "questions surrounding the Apple story".
post #27 of 40
As usual the analysts have got the wrong end of the stick. They forget that Apple and especially Mr. Jobs concentrate on the Mac user experience and then build the machine around that. So they should ask themselves are the Mac type people ready.

I believe that the main concern in the CEO's office is to do with Time Machine and the fact that the stars go counter to the experience of travelling through time. If you are unfamiliar, imagine a space ship hurtling through space. Time machine gives a similar view but it should look to the rear rather than giving a forward view. At the heart is the direction of the star's movement. It should be reversed (go away from the user).
post #28 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Will Apple release the iPhone in China?
We continue to believe Apple will launch the iPhone with one or two carriers in China in CY09, adding either China Mobile (550m subs) and/or China Unicom (128m subs). The company has indicated that it remains focused on launching the iPhone in China, but several hurdles remain. The dust has not yet settled in China regarding the licensing of the 3G networks among the major carriers. We expect the Chinese government to make announcements on the licensing within the next 1-2 months (possibly sooner). In addition, the inclusion of Wi-Fi in the iPhone may be a limiting factor in China. For example, Apple does not yet sell its iPod touch in China possibly due to the inclusion of Wi-Fi. Apple could solve this issue by creating a version of the iPhone software that disables the Wi-Fi features in the Chinese models.

While the subscriber numbers for the carriers and notes about 3G roll-out are mostly correct, the rest of comments on the China market are misleading to wrong.

The iPod touch with Wi-Fi is not only widely available at authorized resellers but also at Apple's own store in Sanlitun.

The "restriction" on Wi-Fi in phones is being largely misrepresented: Wi-Fi-capable phones are widely and legally available for purchase but NOT from China Mobile and China Unicom stores - as the majority of consumers do not purchase from these outlets, it's something of a non-issue unless it's a situation in which the carrier is subsidizing the purchase price.
post #29 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by valanchan View Post

I believe that the main concern in the CEO's office is to do with Time Machine and the fact that the stars go counter to the experience of travelling through time. If you are unfamiliar, imagine a space ship hurtling through space. Time machine gives a similar view but it should look to the rear rather than giving a forward view. At the heart is the direction of the star's movement. It should be reversed (go away from the user).

Hahem. The "Star" you mention is supposed to be the Big Bang, which is clearly the past. The start of it all, if you get the grip, the moment of "creation", the big fucking alleluiah miracle point on your life, an epiphany, one might say, of having gone to the mac store and bought a mac. It's not counter-intuitive. It's too woooow for me, I like that thing inside a good sci-fi movie, but to deal with this wowoo everyday gets annoying. I like to work inside a computer, not inside a computer game.

But hey, just ranting a bit.

I also don't think they'll build that 800-1000 sub notebook. Analysts have been calling Apple to do just that for years, and they'll keep up doing it because they can't think about people, they only care about markets and numbers, and think "there's a niche in here", when they should really think "is this niche worthy of anything?", which is Apple's mentality. When you switch these mentalities, it's obvious why Apple hasn't chosen to do what these crackpot thinkers think Apple should do.

And that's great. Just ask Dell if their advices worked or not.

In the iPhone thematic, I think we'll see an upgrade, not a downgrade of iPhone. The comment about having an iPhone of 2 GB is so dauntingly stupid that my head is spinning. Should I remind the moron sir who wrote it on how ghastly the 4GB iPhone sold? Apple doesn't sell cheap dell idiocies. Get around that fact and stop regurgitating white noise, please.

The iPhone I think will have some overhauls in 2009, the 8GB model will be of course cheaper, but perhaps we'll see a camera that is able to film movies, integrate it easily in the interface with iMovie, post them directly from iPhone to YouTube and others with free apps. That's the main thing missing in it. It will take 2010-11 or so to make another camera directed to the viewer so calls can be made in video-conferencing. I'll say 2015-16 till we reach holograms Star Wars like. Add to it 256GB of flash, the hability to cook and shave and I'm sold.
post #30 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuisDias View Post

In the iPhone thematic, I think we'll see an upgrade, not a downgrade of iPhone. The comment about having an iPhone of 2 GB is so dauntingly stupid that my head is spinning. Should I remind the moron sir who wrote it on how ghastly the 4GB iPhone sold? Apple doesn't sell cheap dell idiocies. Get around that fact and stop regurgitating white noise, please.

The single most expensive component in an 8GB iPhone 3G is the 8Gbyte NAND Flash Memory.
Many iPhone users use less than 1GB of storage on their iPhone.

The 4GB iPhone did not sell well because the first generation iPhone was primarily purchased by gadget freaks and early adopters who want the latest and GREATEST.

When Apple started subsidizing the phone and targeting the larger consumer market they got rid of the 4GB model because they wanted to maximize profits. These are not gadget freaks, many just want the iPhone because it is the hot device. These are the people who never use more than 1GB.

The difference is today Apple has sold iPhones to almost everyone that is willing to pay $200+ for an iPhone. A year and a half ago there wasn't any phone on the market that came close to the iPhone. Today there are many cheaper alternatives that appear to do what the iPhone does.

A 4GB iPhone 3G could do everything a 16GB iPhone 3G can...so your argument that it is somehow cheap/inferior is invalid. There is a market segment that doesn't need that much capacity but wants that much functionality.
post #31 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

The single most expensive component in an 8GB iPhone 3G is the 8Gbyte NAND Flash Memory.

Is that still expensive? I don't know what kind is in memory cards, but I bought 16GB class 6 SDHC card for $30, actually, I bought a small stack of them. And it seems to be far faster than whatever the heck is in the iPhone.

Quote:
A 4GB iPhone 3G could do everything a 16GB iPhone 3G can...so your argument that it is somehow cheap/inferior is invalid. There is a market segment that doesn't need that much capacity but wants that much functionality.

It is still kind of being cheap, I don't think a 4GB model really would save Apple enough money to drop the price any, and the rest of the phone is still just as expensive to make unless they use the Touch's old cheaper display.
post #32 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Additionally, an 11" MB Air doesn't seem like it'd be as portable as a netbook... most of those have 9" screens.
...

Most of the problem with the netbooks are:
- small keyboard/screen
- poor performance with a full OS
- and AFAIC, the chipset (945-based) is not on par with the specs of the cpu, until Intel releases a new chipset with thermal ratings on par with the dual-core Atom cpu, those netbooks will not be "all they can be".

To get a full keyboard + trackpad and a reasonably sized display, you have to go to 11" for the display (enough width and depth).

I don't think Apple should release a 11" MBA either: the small package/low power components of an MBA are expensive.

Since the 13" MB now starts at $1299, it would be nice to have a smaller/less expensive MacBook: 11" MacBook or MacBook mini: enclosure cut flush to the sides of the current keyboard (11.25/11.50"), the depth to accomodate a 11" display (about 7.25/7.50"), same motherboard as the 13" MB, remove the optical drive and move the 2.5" HDD to this space), wider but thinner battery.

Current 13" MB footprint: 12.78x8.94=114.25, weight: 4.5 lbs
11" MacBook mini foot print: 11.50*7.50=86.25, weight: probably 3.4 lbs (75%)

As the 13" MB gets updated (probably next spring) to 2.26/2.53GHz cpus (or better), give the "leftovers" to the 11" MB mini:
$799 11" MB mini, DC 2.00GHz, 2GB RAM, 160GB HDD, nvidia 9400m chipset
$999 11" MB mini, DC 2.40GHz, 2GB RAM, 250GB HDD, nvidia 9400m chipset
post #33 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuisDias View Post

The comment about having an iPhone of 2 GB is so dauntingly stupid that my head is spinning. Should I remind the moron sir who wrote it on how ghastly the 4GB iPhone sold? Apple doesn't sell cheap dell idiocies. Get around that fact and stop regurgitating white noise, please.


Wow. I'm not Johnny Mozarella (the one who made the 2GB comment), but I'm amazed at the rudeness and name-calling contained in Luis' comments. Does that really impress anyone beyond the age of 16 or so, or does it just make the poster using such tactics look bad? \

I'm very impressed that Johnny replied without insulting back... not sure I would've had that degree of patience. Kudos to him on that.


...
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
Cut-copy-paste, MMS, landscape keyboard, video-recording, voice-calling, and more... FINALLY
To the 'We Didn't Need It' Crowd/Apple Apologista Squad : Wrong again, lol
Thanks for listening to your...
Reply
post #34 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Johnny Mozzarella View Post

Many people don't want to leave Verizon but they do want an iPhone.
This way they can keep a basic Verizon phone for voice calls and do all their email/web/GPS/apps stuff on their iPod Touch 3G.

you use wifi for the internet.

i'm sorry that Verizon was too stupid to take up the chance to have the iphone exclusively for several years but they were. they had the chance and they didn't think the arrangement would be profitable enough.

You want an iphone, then right now you go ATT. unless you support breaking the law (and yes currently unlocking the phone is illegal).
post #35 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by reciprocity View Post

(It would be really great if you could buy an iPhone at full-price and be reimbursed once you activate it via iTunes. Then customers could give a physical phone instead of a gift card.)



they used to let folks walk out with a phone and trusted them to activate it.

many of them didn't. they unlocked it etc.

thus the need for the activation at time of purchase.
post #36 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by bertyao View Post

If i give my friend an iphone how do I know he/she wants to pay $80 a month?

you don't and it doesn't matter. pretty much every state says that you can't sign a contract for someone else. so you can't activate service unless you want to be the one responsible for making sure it is paid (and thus it is your credit any deposits are based on and your credit that is hosed if your friend doesn't pay on time)

Quote:
How about giving a regular gift card instead for the entire apple store. that seems a better idea so that people can use their gift.

it is a regular gift card. it is just branded 'iphone 3g' to make it prettier than just a plain card. but it works on anything. well not the itunes store but you can use a store gift card to buy those if that's what you want.
post #37 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

unless you support breaking the law (and yes currently unlocking the phone is illegal).

No it isn't.
post #38 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

No it isn't.

Well, imagine voiding your warranty by unlocking your iPhone, and you still have most of the 2 year AT&T contract to fulfill. Not a place that I'd want to be.

A guy I know here has the 4 GB model that he bought last year on the first day that the iPhone hit the market. He says that 4 gigs works very well for him. BTW, he went to Italy last Fall, he loaded the Godfather trilogy on his 4 gigger. Many folks just don't need a large capacity on their iPhone. On the other side of that, some folks would never have enough room. How much room do you really need on a cell phone? Notice I didn't ask how much you wanted.
post #39 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by zinfella View Post

Well, imagine voiding your warranty by unlocking your iPhone, and you still have most of the 2 year AT&T contract to fulfill. Not a place that I'd want to be.

A guy I know here has the 4 GB model that he bought last year on the first day that the iPhone hit the market. He says that 4 gigs works very well for him. BTW, he went to Italy last Fall, he loaded the Godfather trilogy on his 4 gigger. Many folks just don't need a large capacity on their iPhone. On the other side of that, some folks would never have enough room. How much room do you really need on a cell phone? Notice I didn't ask how much you wanted.

Those are very different issues from what I was responding to in the post you quoted. I wonder if your thought train is derailing.
post #40 of 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffDM View Post

Those are very different issues from what I was responding to in the post you quoted. I wonder if your thought train is derailing.

Not really, just a comment about unlocking, that can have issues beyond whether or not it's legal.

The rest was an admitted aside from your post, but fits in with the original topic about iPhone questions. I just put it all in one post, as I came in to the thread late.
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