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post #281 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by jfanning View Post

[Nokia] didn't "all but ignore" the CDMA market, Qualcomm had issues with them manufacturing their own CDMA chipset, which led to the lawsuits etc...

I know, I know, Nokia and Qualcomm hate each other. But if you listen to Nokia's press releases and official line, for several years now they've bemoaned the fact that they haven't done well in the US, and they're always "vowing" to do better here with some initiative. But they never seem to.

At some point, you either do what it takes to get it done, or you don't. End of story. And playing strongly in the US for Nokia means coming strong into the CDMA market here, which they haven't. Pointing fingers at Qualcomm or not.


Quote:
Also, even though CDMA is over 50% of the US market, that doesn't make it large in the worldwide market, Qualcomm didn't one anyone coming in and playing in their backyard unless it was under their rules.

Never said CDMA's US presence made it huge worldwide (though, at around 15% worldwide marketshare, I wouldn't ignore CDMA globally either).


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post #282 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Verizon has beaten AT&T basically every quarter in retail net adds since the first generation of iphone was launched. It's public record in their SEC filings. No need to read "estimates".

You're talking postpaid, correct? If so, yeah, that's true. But throw prepaid into the mix, and ATT has won some quarters over VZW... overall net adds have gone back-and-forth between the two since the iPhone was launched.

(But yes, VZW > ATT in postpaid).

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post #283 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

At some point, you either do what it takes to get it done, or you don't. End of story. And playing strongly in the US for Nokia means coming strong into the CDMA market here, which they haven't. Pointing fingers at Qualcomm or not.

More than that --- Americans want flip phones --- in both GSM and CDMA world.

By not even seriously making an honest attempt to design flip GSM phones for the US market --- no one can ever argue that Nokia made an effort for the general US cell phone market at all.
post #284 of 350
I'm a very satisfied Verizon customer and would switch in a minute to an iPhone if one became available through Verizon. No way would I consider going over to AT&T. Until such time as an iPhone comes out on Verizon I'm content to use my pretty basic flip phone and my iPod Touch. I'm sure I'm not the only Verizon subscriber who shares these feelings.
post #285 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post

I'm a very satisfied Verizon customer and would switch in a minute to an iPhone if one became available through Verizon. No way would I consider going over to AT&T. Until such time as an iPhone comes out on Verizon I'm content to use my pretty basic flip phone and my iPod Touch. I'm sure I'm not the only Verizon subscriber who shares these feelings.

I share that. AT&T can go to hell.
post #286 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

That's somewhat debatable. Apple was very likely asking for the sun and the moon in their offer to Verizon. ATT was in a weaker position than VZW, and was willing to cough up said sun and moon. VZW wasn't. And, in retrospect, I can't really blame them.

Even with the iPhone, ATT is still only battling VZW to a standstill, pretty much (and a lot of this is due to ATT's strength in prepaid, actually). With the VZW-Alltel merger that will be finalized anytime now, VZW re-gains the title of #1 US carrier... again, without the iPhone. VZW has lost a few customers to the iPhone, but their churn rate hasn't climbed dramatically. Their ARPU is fine. They'd like the iPhone, but they don't truly need it. Though the 3G model's success must be turning their heads more than a bit.

But, if you really think about it, Apple probably needs Verizon more than VZW needs Apple. With the Alltel merger, Verizon will have over 80 million customers, quite a bit more than ATT, and about one-third of the US market. If Apple is willing to cut VZW a more reasonable deal than it offered in the past and get them onboard, Apple's US sales stand to skyrocket, as there are lots of ppl out there who want an iPhone, but like their VZW (and Alltel) service and don't want to switch (or who are on the fence but don't want to pay the ETF, which is quite expensive on multi-line/family plans).

You'd have to think that getting VZW-Alltel onboard is goal one for Apple the instant the ATT exclusive runs out. Because there's just not many alternatives.

Sprint is dysfunctional and shrinking, and is pretty wedded to Wi-Max (I doubt Apple wishes to make a WiMax version of the iPhone). T-Mobile is barely a third of VZW-Alltel's size, and has an extremely limited 3G network (they started deploying it very late). US Cellular is a very good carrier, but they're tiny compared to the big boys. And so on.


...

You mean that Verizon is battling AT&T almost to a standstill.

AT&T has stated that the iPhone is more than making up in any lost profits from their deal with the higher than average rates iPhone users are willing to pay.

Verizon would have more customers than they have now, paying higher rates. I read somewhere that the most customers for AT&T's iPhone, coming from outside AT&T are coming from Verizon, so they are hurting from this.

I don't know if Apple needs Verizon more or not, but remember that Apple is now selling two thirds of the iPhones outside the US. That means that having Verizon right now would only add another 15% more customers. That's not insignificant, but it's not world shattering either.

If the rumor that Apple will Add China after the new year is true, that will bring any contribution of Verizon down to below 10%. Maybe 5%. Even the smallest of the big three phone companies in China have several times as many customers as Verizon has.

Apple can afford to wait this one out.
post #287 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

I know, I know, Nokia and Qualcomm hate each other. But if you listen to Nokia's press releases and official line, for several years now they've bemoaned the fact that they haven't done well in the US, and they're always "vowing" to do better here with some initiative. But they never seem to.

At some point, you either do what it takes to get it done, or you don't. End of story. And playing strongly in the US for Nokia means coming strong into the CDMA market here, which they haven't. Pointing fingers at Qualcomm or not.

Never said CDMA's US presence made it huge worldwide (though, at around 15% worldwide marketshare, I wouldn't ignore CDMA globally either).

Nokia is in a lot more trouble than some may think.

They just pulled out of Japan, and their presence in most countries is mostly cheap phones. Their smartphones are losing out EVERYWHERE.
post #288 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Tell us with a straight face that you'd go back to dial-up on your home computer. That's about how fast GPRS is.

Last year in Europe the iPhone was beating other 3G phones in internet marketshare with a better interface and a slower network.

Quote:
And Apple sold nearly 7 million 3G iPhones in just the 3rd quarter. The 2.5G iPhone couldn't match that in a full year.

Don't kid yourself... it's now a footnote.

They sold nearly 7 million additionally with a cheaper price and the app store.

They just stopped selling the original iPhone in April. Isn't as though its long ago history.
post #289 of 350
Demanding that the iPhone perform all of its functionality without Verizon being able to charge anything extra is asking for the sun and the moon.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

That's somewhat debatable. Apple was very likely asking for the sun and the moon in their offer to Verizon.
post #290 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

You mean that Verizon is battling AT&T almost to a standstill.

AT&T has stated that the iPhone is more than making up in any lost profits from their deal with the higher than average rates iPhone users are willing to pay.

Verizon would have more customers than they have now, paying higher rates. I read somewhere that the most customers for AT&T's iPhone, coming from outside AT&T are coming from Verizon, so they are hurting from this.

The problem for AT&T is that they concentrated on building their prepaid subscriber base (much of that via Tracfone). Verizon Wireless has a higher ARPU than AT&T wireless.

Those news are confirmed rumors based on some sort of phone-in survey --- unreliable. Also we have actual SEC filings to look at the overall picture. From Verizon's point of view, it is not hurting them overall --- because whatever they lost in subscribership to AT&T due to the iphone, they gain it back from Sprint and T-Mobile.
post #291 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Nokia is in a lot more trouble than some may think.

They just pulled out of Japan, and their presence in most countries is mostly cheap phones. Their smartphones are losing out EVERYWHERE.

Good, the iphone will prevail.
post #292 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

More than that --- Americans want flip phones --- in both GSM and CDMA world.

By not even seriously making an honest attempt to design flip GSM phones for the US market --- no one can ever argue that Nokia made an effort for the general US cell phone market at all.


Yeah, I mentioned that too, earlier. Very few flip phones + little CDMA product = Nokia tanked in US market.

Nokia was so used to being able to dictate to consumers what they should want that they were utterly surprised when the US market said, "Thanks, but no thanks".

Of late, Nokia's been saying that now they want to listen to US customers. Wow, what a good idea. Duh.

And that's actually a bit of a cautionary tale for Apple, if you think about it. Sure, the UI and mobile Safari is making ppl ga-ga for iPhones now (well, after 3G, anyway), but Apple may not always have such a big technological gap on the competition.


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post #293 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldCodger73 View Post

I'm a very satisfied Verizon customer and would switch in a minute to an iPhone if one became available through Verizon. No way would I consider going over to AT&T. Until such time as an iPhone comes out on Verizon I'm content to use my pretty basic flip phone and my iPod Touch. I'm sure I'm not the only Verizon subscriber who shares these feelings.


Yup. And this is why single-carrier exclusives suck.

Ppl can be fiercely loyal to a particular carrier, in large part because once you find a carrier who works well in your particular geographic area, you're not really going to want to roll the dice on somebody else.

Take my neck of the woods... Verizon is very good where I live. T-Mobile and Sprint are mediocre. ATT is actually pretty bad. Love the 3G iPhone, but would not get one here because ATT just isn't up to snuff.

NO carrier is good everywhere, or even close to everywhere. That's why single-carrier exclusives inherently limit to you to only a certain percentage of the market. And, even for those who are willing to switch carriers, ETFs and contracts get in the way too.

Maybe this is why Apple hasn't been easing off of the single-carrier model in overseas markets?

Multi-carrier for the iPhone in the US can't come soon enough, but sadly, it's still about a year and a half away. Bummer.


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post #294 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Demanding that the iPhone perform all of its functionality without Verizon being able to charge anything extra is asking for the sun and the moon.


You were privy to the specifics of the negotiations? Do tell.


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post #295 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

The problem for AT&T is that they concentrated on building their prepaid subscriber base (much of that via Tracfone). Verizon Wireless has a higher ARPU than AT&T wireless.

Those news are confirmed rumors based on some sort of phone-in survey --- unreliable. Also we have actual SEC filings to look at the overall picture. From Verizon's point of view, it is not hurting them overall --- because whatever they lost in subscribership to AT&T due to the iphone, they gain it back from Sprint and T-Mobile.

Yes, but I've looked at their prices when researching my own choices over the years. Verizon has always charged too much for some services, fine for business perhaps, but not for consumers.
post #296 of 350
You don't need to know the specifics. You can clearly see how Verizon prices its plans.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

You were privy to the specifics of the negotiations? Do tell.


...
post #297 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tauron View Post

Good, the iphone will prevail.

I think that's true.

When you combine what's already happening with the new announcement featured here today about Apple's new investments, couple that with the article from Ars giving some info about the technology:

http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...phone-graphics

and couple that with what we are seeing about new games releases:

http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...-join-the-fray

we can see that this platform, including the seemingly very popular iTouch, is going in directions that no other phone can go.

Will this also lead to a series of netbooks from Apple that will also zoom past those being offered by others?

It certainly looks possible.

Apple is moving to a more exclusive technology for this new platform that no one else will be able to match, and unlike the PPC, Apple will have more control over where it goes, and when.
post #298 of 350
Its not looking that great for the BB Storm. The absence of WiFi is a stupid mistake.

"We tried to warn you, but you just didn't want to hear it. "How bad could it be?" you muttered to yourself, as you handed over a summer's worth of lawn mowing money for a shiny new BlackBerry Storm. Pretty bad, as it turns out. Based on a pile of anecdotal evidence and hearsay, numbers as high as a 50% return rate have been bandied about. The software update certainly helped the situation, but there are still a lot of disappointed thumbs out there. So, how'd it go down on your end?"

Engadget
post #299 of 350
When we also read about this:

http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...vice-to-iphone

and software such as this;

http://macdailynews.com/index.php/we...omments/19397/

we can see that there are those in major other markets who think the iPhone is poised to become an important competitor there.
post #300 of 350
T-Mobile should definitely get it. It'll be interesting to see what happens with Verizon. Verizon won' get the iPhone if it doesn't agree to Apple's terms. If they allow the iPhone to function without attempting to force Apple to change the phones functions or charging extra for them. The other handset manufacturers and customers with other phones won't be too happy about that. Its a conundrum.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post


Multi-carrier for the iPhone in the US can't come soon enough, but sadly, it's still about a year and a half away. Bummer.


...
post #301 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Last year in Europe the iPhone was beating other 3G phones in internet marketshare with a better interface and a slower network.

Way to dodge the question. Tsk. \


Quote:
They sold nearly 7 million additionally with a cheaper price and the app store.

Wow. Your '3G denial' was funny before, but now, it's just kinda sad.

(btw, 3G helps out the App Store... faster OTA dloads.)


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post #302 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Nokia is in a lot more trouble than some may think.

They just pulled out of Japan, and their presence in most countries is mostly cheap phones. Their smartphones are losing out EVERYWHERE.

They are so very big, though. And as of last quarter they still had 42 percent worldwide marketshare in smartphones. Doesn't sound like they're a 'cheap phone only' company.

Nokia's such a big tree, it's going to take a very long time to chop them down to size. And, like everyone else, they'll be helped by some of the more marginal players going under during the current global recession.


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post #303 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Way to dodge the question. Tsk. \

I'm just looking at reality instead of hypotheticals.

Quote:
Wow. Your '3G denial' was funny before, but now, it's just kinda sad.

(btw, 3G helps out the App Store... faster OTA dloads.)

I don't believe the iPhone 3G would have sold that many had it still cost $600/$400 and not have thousands of apps. That says nothing to discredit the usefulness of 3G.
post #304 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Demanding that the iPhone perform all of its functionality without Verizon being able to charge anything extra is asking for the sun and the moon.

ATT 'charges extra' by making you take the data plan, right? That's $30/month, for two years. So, what are you concerned about? VZW charging something else on top of that? Or charging more than $30/month for the mandatory data plan?


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post #305 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

I'm just looking at reality instead of hypotheticals.

While still steadfastly dodging the question. Again, tsk. \


Quote:
I don't believe the iPhone 3G would have sold that many had it still cost $600/$400 and not have thousands of apps. That says nothing to discredit the usefulness of 3G.

Price matters, I've said that for a long time, but it is humorous how you always emphasize other factors over 3G when it comes to the reality of the 3G iPhone vastly outselling the 2.5G.

Face it, 3G has helped.. a lot. Especially overseas. Whether you feel like admitting it or not is another matter.

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post #306 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TenoBell View Post

Its not looking that great for the BB Storm. The absence of WiFi is a stupid mistake.

The BB Storm is a lot like the 2.5G iPhone in the US was... flawed, but selling decently.

If you're into BBs, I'd wait 'til the Storm 2, next year. Or consider the Blackberry Bold.


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post #307 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

They are so very big, though. And as of last quarter they still had 42 percent worldwide marketshare in smartphones. Doesn't sound like they're a 'cheap phone only' company.

Nokia's such a big tree, it's going to take a very long time to chop them down to size. And, like everyone else, they'll be helped by some of the more marginal players going under during the current global recession.


...

It doesn't matter how big they are. At one time Motorola was the biggest, what's happening to them now?

It also doesn't matter that they have 42%. What percentage did they have a six months ago? A year ago? Two years ago?

That's what matters.

They rely upon the rapidly becoming obsolete concept of many buttons, many menus. Some think that that and some specialized chips to allow features that can better be done in software, makes those phones more advanced, but it really makes them old fashioned, and clumsy, which is why so many who do have those phones never use many of the features.

Apple has the right idea, simpler hardware, more sophisticated software, better interface design.

Obviously, consumers agree with this.

It's why Nokia's smartphone marketshare will continue to go down.
post #308 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

You mean that Verizon is battling AT&T almost to a standstill.

A distinction without much of a difference, really. ATT and Verizon have been going back and forth ever since the iPhone was released.


Quote:
AT&T has stated that the iPhone is more than making up in any lost profits from their deal with the higher than average rates iPhone users are willing to pay.

I dunno... the deal seems to be a mixed bag for ATT, at least in the short- and medium-term. From Reuters:


iPhone to cut into AT&T earnings until 2010

NEW YORK (Reuters) - AT&T Inc will suffer lower earnings this year and next year as it plans to subsidize the price of the latest iPhone from Apple Inc in a bet it can help it boost data services and steal customers.

While some analysts applauded the plan, saying it would broaden the market for the high-speed version of the most talked about cell phone in history, others questioned whether AT&T was sacrificing too much for one product.

AT&T, the largest U.S. mobile phone service provider, said iPhone subsidies would cut its earnings per share by 10 cents to 12 cents in 2008 and 2009 and Chief Financial Officer Rick Lindner said the move would put pressure on AT&T's forecast for double-digit earnings growth this year.

AT&T, the exclusive U.S. service provider for the iPhone, said it was subsidizing the latest device to make it affordable. The new iPhone will cost $199, half the previous entry-level price.

Under the new pact, AT&T will not give Apple part of its monthly service fees, unlike their first iPhone agreement.

But investors focused on the hit to earnings and pushed AT&T's shares down 1.7 percent. Crowell, Weedon & Co analyst Douglas Christopher said AT&T's profit should not have to suffer for an agreement to sell a hot new phone.



Quote:
Verizon would have more customers than they have now, paying higher rates.

But it doesn't do them much good if they have to pay through the nose to Apple for the privilege. See above. And this is likely much of the reason why Verizon turned down Apple on the 2.5G iPhone.


Quote:
I don't know if Apple needs Verizon more or not, but remember that Apple is now selling two thirds of the iPhones outside the US. That means that having Verizon right now would only add another 15% more customers. That's not insignificant, but it's not world shattering either.

I don't know about "15% more"... think about it- if two-thirds of iPhones are being sold outside the US, then one-third are being sold within the US... by ATT.

Verizon-Alltel will be BIGGER than ATT. Assuming the VZW-Alltel customers take to the iPhone at a similar rate as ATT customers, then Apple's overall iPhone sales would be boosted more like 35-40%... going by your US/world split, anyway.


Quote:
If the rumor that Apple will Add China after the new year is true, that will bring any contribution of Verizon down to below 10%. Maybe 5%. Even the smallest of the big three phone companies in China have several times as many customers as Verizon has.

Apple can afford to wait this one out.

Of course, that assumes that Chinese consumers will take to the iPhone in the same kinds of percentages as US customers have. I don't know that that's realistic... Apple's brand seems to always be strongest in the US. But even with China, VZW-Alltel still won't be chicken feed.

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post #309 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

The BB Storm is a lot like the 2.5G iPhone in the US was... flawed, but selling decently.

If you're into BBs, I'd wait 'til the Storm 2, next year. Or consider the Blackberry Bold.


...

The Storm sucks bigtime. It's nothing like the iPhone at first release.

If you want, I can post a link to every review of it that I've found as they came out, I've got them bookmarked for easy access.

While all of the initial reviews of the iPhone were good, some great, not one of the reviews of the Storm has been good. Not one. Some have been devastating.

While some iPhones have ben returned because of the keyboards, it's only been a very small number. So small, that except for a few mentions of it in the beginning, no one mentions it anymore.

But the Storm is reportedly being returned at rates of 40 to 50%!!!

No matter how many they may be selling, if that percentage are being returned, it's a disaster! All those phones are now used, they can't be resold as new. You know what that does to the margins?
post #310 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

It doesn't matter how big they are. At one time Motorola was the biggest, what's happening to them now?

That's a simplistic comparison. You're assuming that Nokia is as dysfunctional as Motorola is. While Nokia has made some very boneheaded moves in the US market, worldwide and overall they are not in Moto's league when it comes to dumb. That's very hard to do, actually.

Quote:
It also doesn't matter that they have 42%.

Actually, it does. Economies of scale, mindshare, and the like.


Quote:
What percentage did they have a six months ago? A year ago? Two years ago?

A year ago, they had 48%. Both RIM and Apple have significantly improved smartphone marketshare at the expense of Nokia and others.


Quote:
They rely upon the rapidly becoming obsolete concept of many buttons, many menus. Some think that that and some specialized chips to allow features that can better be done in software, makes those phones more advanced, but it really makes them old fashioned, and clumsy, which is why so many who do have those phones never use many of the features.

Apple has the right idea, simpler hardware, more sophisticated software, better interface design.

Obviously, consumers agree with this.

It's why Nokia's smartphone marketshare will continue to go down.

Sure... until they figure it out. And their size and resources buy them the time to figure it out.

I wouldn't count Nokia out, worldwide anyway. They are the 800-lb gorilla in the room. And they have some advantages over the other players, such as their cost structure/supply chain and some pretty fierce Euro customer loyalty.

Do I like Apple's (and RIM's) approach better? Yes. But I don't take the competition lightly.


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post #311 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

A distinction without much of a difference, really. ATT and Verizon have been going back and forth ever since the iPhone was released.

It's a big difference. It means that it's Verizon that's worried, and they are.

The Storm is not a success.

Verizon needs a viable competitor to the iPhone, and they don't have one.


I dunno... the deal seems to be a mixed bag for ATT, at least in the short- and medium-term. From Reuters:

iPhone to cut into ATT earning until 2010


NEW YORK (Reuters) - AT&T Inc will suffer lower earnings this year and next year as it plans to subsidize the price of the latest iPhone from Apple Inc in a bet it can help it boost data services and steal customers.[/quote]

That's absurd! It's just some opinions of those that people here, including you, knock for not knowing anything.

I already posted more official info that shows the iPhone is responsible for a large part of AT&T's profits.
Most of AT&T's profit failings are due to its losing landline accounts. That's been made very clear.

Quote:
While some analysts applauded the plan, saying it would broaden the market for the high-speed version of the most talked about cell phone in history, others questioned whether AT&T was sacrificing too much for one product.

AT&T, the largest U.S. mobile phone service provider, said iPhone subsidies would cut its earnings per share by 10 cents to 12 cents in 2008 and 2009 and Chief Financial Officer Rick Lindner said the move would put pressure on AT&T's forecast for double-digit earnings growth this year.

AT&T, the exclusive U.S. service provider for the iPhone, said it was subsidizing the latest device to make it affordable. The new iPhone will cost $199, half the previous entry-level price.

Under the new pact, AT&T will not give Apple part of its monthly service fees, unlike their first iPhone agreement.

But investors focused on the hit to earnings and pushed AT&T's shares down 1.7 percent. Crowell, Weedon & Co analyst Douglas Christopher said AT&T's profit should not have to suffer for an agreement to sell a hot new phone.

This is all the same nonsense.

Look back for the info I posted earlier.


Quote:
But it doesn't do them much good if they have to pay through the nose to Apple for the privilege. See above.

Yeah, all of that SPECULATION. No information from any of them, just speculation without knowing the numbers.

Quote:
I don't know about "15% more"... think about it- if two-thirds of iPhones are being sold outside the US, then one-third are being sold within the US... by ATT.

Verizon-Alltel will be BIGGER than ATT. Assuming the VZW-Alltel customers take to the iPhone at a similar rate as ATT customers, then Apple's overall iPhone sales would be boosted more like 35-40%... going by your US/world split, anyway.

If AT&T is getting 33% of iPhones, then Verizon, with the small Alltel added, won't come to much. Out of country sales are moving at a good clip, considering the economic situation right now, where all companies are being hurt.

As more foreign countries are added, as they are, the the US marketshare will continue to shrink. It won't expand because Verizon is added. Those sales taken from them will simply remain there, and sales that might have gone to AT&T, in some part, will instrad go to Verizon. So there won't be that much of a change in the overall numbers.

As I mentioned, once China is onboard, the US numbers will shrink drastically.


Quote:
Of course, that assumes that Chinese consumers will take to the iPhone in the same kinds of percentages as US customers have. I don't know that that's realistic... Apple's brand seems to always be strongest in the US. But even with China, VZW-Alltel still won't be chicken feed.

...

The Chinese are crazy for new, expensive phones. The amount of iPhone already in the country is proof of that. The numbers will shoot up once an official release, with the App Store arrives.
post #312 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

The Storm sucks bigtime. It's nothing like the iPhone at first release.

If you want, I can post a link to every review of it that I've found as they came out, I've got them bookmarked for easy access.

While all of the initial reviews of the iPhone were good, some great, not one of the reviews of the Storm has been good. Not one. Some have been devastating.

Wow. Business Week didn't seem to think it sucked:

The BlackBerry Storm Challenges the iPhone
Is BlackBerry's new handheld better than Apple's iconic device? That depends on whether you are mostly into messaging or browsing

By Stephen H. Wildstrom

The new touchscreen BlackBerry Storm looks a little like an iPhone and behaves a bit like one, too. So its release is sure to spark a furious debate over which is better. That's the wrong question. Each is an outstanding product—and distinct, despite a few similar design flourishes. The correct question is, which is right for you?

Although the Storm was clearly inspired by Apple's (AAPL) success with the iPhone, the two phones were conceived with different goals in mind. Research In Motion (RIMM) has removed its signature physical keyboard to make room for a 3½-inch display, but it didn't compromise the BlackBerry mission: The Storm is first and foremost a text-centric device built around RIM's celebrated e-mail services. This makes it the hands-down winner for messaging tasks, particularly if you work for an organization that uses the BlackBerry Enterprise Server to relay corporate mail.

The Storm also won't send you scrambling for a midday recharge as the iPhone often does. It has more than enough power to get through a long, busy workday. And unlike the iPhone, the battery is easy to remove, so even if you manage to deplete the charge, you can always pop in a spare.

On the other hand, if messaging on your smartphone takes a back seat to Web browsing, social networking, games, and entertainment, you will be happier with an iPhone. Unlike all-business BlackBerrys of years past, the Storm and other recent models try to be a bit more entertaining. And the Storm browser certainly takes good advantage of that big display, which, like the iPhone's screen, automatically changes orientation from vertical to horizontal as you rotate the phone.

But the Storm still can't hold a candle to the iPhone in terms of sheer fun. The credit for that goes to the iTunes App Store, with its astonishing range of programs—to name just two, MotionX Poker, in which virtual dice roll when you shake the handset, and Shazam, which can identify music you hear on the radio by checking the sound against a database. Still, the Storm offers one key application that Apple, for reasons it has never made clear, has banned from the iPhone: turn-by-turn driving instructions from VZ Navigator.

Overall, in terms of hardware, I'd say the two phones are equal. The original iPhone set a new standard for touchscreen keyboards, but the Storm has it beat. The main difference is that a firm press on the Storm screen triggers a physical switch beneath the glass that both enters the letter you typed and produces a click that greatly improves the accuracy of typing. Hold the phone horizontally and you get a three-row keyboard similar to that on the BlackBerry Curve or the new Bold. Turn it vertically and it switches to the SureType variety, with two letters sharing most keys, just like on the BlackBerry Pearl. In either mode, software figures out what you are trying to type.

Having used BlackBerrys for years, I found the touch keyboard took some getting used to. Try it yourself at your local Verizon shop: Switch back and forth between a BlackBerry 8830 or a Curve and the Storm, and you'll see why most people still prefer keys. But once you get used to the Storm's big screen, you'll forget the minor inconvenience. Virtual or real, BlackBerry's keyboards beat the iPhone in data entry.

Comparing networks is more difficult. First of all, the Storm doesn't do Wi-Fi, a deal-breaker for some people. Secondly, it runs only on Verizon, while iPhones are confined to AT&T (T). These networks use different technologies with roughly equal performance, so it really comes down to who offers the best service wherever you are planning to use the phone most. In tests of both networks in the Washington (D.C.) area and in Michigan, each got about the same high-speed coverage.

There are no major financial considerations in choosing between the Storm and the iPhone: Pricing and service plans are similar. As of Nov. 21 the Storm is available in the U.S. for $200 after rebate with a two-year contract. Telus offers the Storm in Canada and Vodafone (VOD) in Europe. Like the iPhone—and unlike most Verizon handsets—the Storm can be used on fast, 3G networks worldwide. A global data plan costs $65 above a voice plan; unlimited domestic-only data service is $50.

What's my choice? I'm an e-mail guy, working in an environment that supports BlackBerry but not corporate mail on an iPhone, so it's a no-brainer. But to get the best of both worlds, I also have an iPod touch, which isn't a phone but runs most of those cool iPhone programs.


Quote:
While some iPhones have ben returned because of the keyboards, it's only been a very small number. So small, that except for a few mentions of it in the beginning, no one mentions it anymore.

But the Storm is reportedly being returned at rates of 40 to 50%!!

No matter how many they may be selling, if that percentage are being returned, it's a disaster! All those phones are now used, they can't be resold as new. You know what that does to the margins?


They're having problems, I'm well aware of that, I have friends who sell cellular service after all. But it's RIM. They'll figure it out.


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post #313 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

That's a simplistic comparison. You're assuming that Nokia is as dysfunctional as Motorola is. While Nokia has made some very boneheaded moves in the US market, worldwide and overall they are not in Moto's league when it comes to dumb. That's very hard to do, actually.

Simplistic only if you are trying very hard to not see the truth here. Nokia is on the way down, They have nothing to compete. When will they? No one knows. They said that they were cutting back on R&D because of the recession. Great idea!

They are pulling out of Japan.

They are in serious trouble, and they know it, even if you don't.

Quote:
Actually, it does. Economies of scale, mindshare, and the like.

No it doesn't. I'm surprised you are saying this! It's so obviously untrue!

Where was the mindshare when RIM started? Nowhere! Where was the mindshare for the iPhone? Nowhere!

But, they are kicking Nokia's ass pretty good. Apple is doing it better than RIM.

The mindshare of Nokia's smartphones right now is that they suck, and that there's no good reason to buy them.

I remember that Aegisdesign was saying that the iPhone would have a real hard time once in Nokia's markets, but he was wrong. It's doing very well, and it's Nokia in Nokia's markets that's dying.

[/quote]
A year ago, they had 48%. Both RIM and Apple have significantly improved smartphone marketshare at the expense of Nokia and others.[/quote]

Six months ago they had 48%. A year ago it was considerably higher.

Quote:
Sure... until they figure it out. And their size and resources buy them the time to figure it out.

Sure they will. They've had plenty of time to come up with something viable, but all they could do is the not so well received N97, or what ever the number is.

9quote]
I wouldn't count Nokia out, worldwide anyway. They are the 800-lb gorilla in the room. And they have some advantages over the other players, such as their cost structure/supply chain and some pretty fierce Euro customer loyalty.[/quote]

They will definitely be the king of the cheap, or free phones for quite some while, until Apple decides to move there too.

Quote:
Do I like Apple's (and RIM's) approach better? Yes. But I don't take the competition lightly.


...

I don't take them lightly, just not as seriously as I would have earlier this year, before Apple movd into their markets, and began to push them out.

It takes some time to come up with a good competitor tosomething as different as an iPhone. Look at how some more nimble competitors have fumbled.

Withe the new technology Apple is beginning to own, or have exclusives on, it will be farmore difficult to catch up with what they are doing.

The hardware will bee much better, and so will the software.

With business moving to the iPhone much more than expected, and more business software coming out for it, including some heavy hitters, its moving into business in a big way.

Competitors are going to have to look at a phone which meets the needs of several market at once, which none of theirs do.

That will be very difficult to do.

It will also be difficult to meet the expectations for some application store that Apple has set.

We may see a vastly improved iPhone come the ADC mid 2009. If Nokia and others are chasing the current model, and haven't come close, what will they do when the next one arrives with exclusive technologies, and much higher performance, allowing software that is well beyond anything they can hope to offer?

I'm convinced that Apple will be moving further ahead. If these others aren't careful, and it may not matter what they do, the iPhone may enter into the iPod situation vs competitors.
post #314 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

It's a big difference. It means that it's Verizon that's worried, and they are.

The Storm is not a success.

Verizon needs a viable competitor to the iPhone, and they don't have one.

It's not a big difference, and Verizon isn't all that worried. They know that they consistently out-execute ATT, have better networks, better CS, and higher customer loyalty. The iPhone hasn't changed those things.

The iPhone is more a bandaid for ATT's problems than it is a killshot against Verizon. Now, would Verizon like to have the iPhone? Absolutely. Will they pay through the spleen for it? No. Because they feel they don't have to.


Quote:
That's absurd! It's just some opinions of those that people here, including you, knock for not knowing anything.

No, actually it's ATT's opinion, if you read closely:

"AT&T, the largest U.S. mobile phone service provider, said iPhone subsidies would cut its earnings per share by 10 cents to 12 cents in 2008 and 2009 and Chief Financial Officer Rick Lindner said the move would put pressure on AT&T's forecast for double-digit earnings growth this year."



Quote:
Yeah, all of that SPECULATION. No information from any of them, just speculation without knowing the numbers.

Sure. Because, y'know, Apple would never drive a highly aggressive deal with anyone that would cause them to pay through the nose to Apple. Steve just doesn't do that.


Quote:
If AT&T is getting 33% of iPhones, then Verizon, with the small Alltel added, won't come to much.

That's silly. 33% is huge, and as was stated before, Verizon, with Alltel included, is significantly bigger than ATT.


Quote:
As I mentioned, once China is onboard, the US numbers will shrink drastically.

Again, you're assuming that China will be as ga-ga for the iPhone as the US is. I expect good sales for Apple in China, but likely not at US iPhone-adoption percentages.


Quote:
The Chinese are crazy for new, expensive phones. The amount of iPhone already in the country is proof of that. The numbers will shoot up once an official release, with the App Store arrives.

Average GDP in China is quite low, actually... about one-sixth of the US's. Yes, they're starting to build a nice middle class, but that's a fraction of the overall population. Lots of ppl in China can't really afford an iPhone. And again, Apple's brand is not as strong overseas as it is in the US.

Before you get all huffy, yes, I think Apple will sell lots of iPhones in China. But I don't think it'll be the gazillions you seem to be assuming.

I'd be very happy if Chinese iPhone sales equalled US iPhone sales, actually.


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post #315 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

Wow. Business Week didn't seem to think it sucked:

The BlackBerry Storm Challenges the iPhone
Is BlackBerry's new handheld better than Apple's iconic device? That depends on whether you are mostly into messaging or browsing

By Stephen H. Wildstrom

The new touchscreen BlackBerry Storm looks a little like an iPhone and behaves a bit like one, too. So its release is sure to spark a furious debate over which is better. That's the wrong question. Each is an outstanding productand distinct, despite a few similar design flourishes. The correct question is, which is right for you?

Although the Storm was clearly inspired by Apple's (AAPL) success with the iPhone, the two phones were conceived with different goals in mind. Research In Motion (RIMM) has removed its signature physical keyboard to make room for a 3½-inch display, but it didn't compromise the BlackBerry mission: The Storm is first and foremost a text-centric device built around RIM's celebrated e-mail services. This makes it the hands-down winner for messaging tasks, particularly if you work for an organization that uses the BlackBerry Enterprise Server to relay corporate mail.

The Storm also won't send you scrambling for a midday recharge as the iPhone often does. It has more than enough power to get through a long, busy workday. And unlike the iPhone, the battery is easy to remove, so even if you manage to deplete the charge, you can always pop in a spare.

On the other hand, if messaging on your smartphone takes a back seat to Web browsing, social networking, games, and entertainment, you will be happier with an iPhone. Unlike all-business BlackBerrys of years past, the Storm and other recent models try to be a bit more entertaining. And the Storm browser certainly takes good advantage of that big display, which, like the iPhone's screen, automatically changes orientation from vertical to horizontal as you rotate the phone.

But the Storm still can't hold a candle to the iPhone in terms of sheer fun. The credit for that goes to the iTunes App Store, with its astonishing range of programsto name just two, MotionX Poker, in which virtual dice roll when you shake the handset, and Shazam, which can identify music you hear on the radio by checking the sound against a database. Still, the Storm offers one key application that Apple, for reasons it has never made clear, has banned from the iPhone: turn-by-turn driving instructions from VZ Navigator.

Overall, in terms of hardware, I'd say the two phones are equal. The original iPhone set a new standard for touchscreen keyboards, but the Storm has it beat. The main difference is that a firm press on the Storm screen triggers a physical switch beneath the glass that both enters the letter you typed and produces a click that greatly improves the accuracy of typing. Hold the phone horizontally and you get a three-row keyboard similar to that on the BlackBerry Curve or the new Bold. Turn it vertically and it switches to the SureType variety, with two letters sharing most keys, just like on the BlackBerry Pearl. In either mode, software figures out what you are trying to type.

Having used BlackBerrys for years, I found the touch keyboard took some getting used to. Try it yourself at your local Verizon shop: Switch back and forth between a BlackBerry 8830 or a Curve and the Storm, and you'll see why most people still prefer keys. But once you get used to the Storm's big screen, you'll forget the minor inconvenience. Virtual or real, BlackBerry's keyboards beat the iPhone in data entry.

Comparing networks is more difficult. First of all, the Storm doesn't do Wi-Fi, a deal-breaker for some people. Secondly, it runs only on Verizon, while iPhones are confined to AT&T (T). These networks use different technologies with roughly equal performance, so it really comes down to who offers the best service wherever you are planning to use the phone most. In tests of both networks in the Washington (D.C.) area and in Michigan, each got about the same high-speed coverage.

There are no major financial considerations in choosing between the Storm and the iPhone: Pricing and service plans are similar. As of Nov. 21 the Storm is available in the U.S. for $200 after rebate with a two-year contract. Telus offers the Storm in Canada and Vodafone (VOD) in Europe. Like the iPhoneand unlike most Verizon handsetsthe Storm can be used on fast, 3G networks worldwide. A global data plan costs $65 above a voice plan; unlimited domestic-only data service is $50.

What's my choice? I'm an e-mail guy, working in an environment that supports BlackBerry but not corporate mail on an iPhone, so it's a no-brainer. But to get the best of both worlds, I also have an iPod touch, which isn't a phone but runs most of those cool iPhone programs.

As I said, that's not a good review. It's neutral.

The ONLY reason why he would get one would be because of RIM's business e-mail. Not exactly a rousing endorsement, eh?


Quote:
They're having problems, I'm well aware of that, I have friends who sell cellular service after all. But it's RIM. They'll figure it out.


...

You really don't know that.

Here are some other reviews, since you posted that one:

http://www.pcworld.com/article/15421...ppointing.html

http://www.engadget.com/2008/11/19/b...-storm-review/

http://gizmodo.com/5093715/blackberr...-perfect-storm

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...3591085.column

http://www.time.com/time/business/ar...860717,00.html

http://www.informationweek.com/news/...yText=&isPrev=

http://www.eweek.com/c/a/Mobile-and-...m-Lacks-Punch/

http://www.yaledailynews.com/articles/view/26909

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1093...m-is-a-washout

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/27/te...XTBJROZc6ibczA
post #316 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Simplistic only if you are trying very hard to not see the truth here. Nokia is on the way down, They have nothing to compete. When will they? No one knows. They said that they were cutting back on R&D because of the recession. Great idea!

They are pulling out of Japan.

They are in serious trouble, and they know it, even if you don't.

Mel, Nokia isn't Motorola, and even if you say it 1000 times, it won't make it true.

They have problems, yes. Are they of the same magnitude as Moto's? No. My brother recently worked AT the cellphone division of Moto. Trust me, Nokia has a long-ways to go before they are Moto-like in any way, shape, or form.

Btw, you seem unusually aggro today. Something up?


Quote:
No it doesn't. I'm surprised you are saying this! It's so obviously untrue!

No. Nokia's uses it's economies of scale and overall clout to have a very efficient (and actually envied) supply chain that offers them a competitive advantage. The Economist and other magazines have written articles concerning this. Check 'em out sometime.

Far as your points go on mindshare, well-taken, but that doesn't mean that mindshare doesn't matter. Do you think that Apple doesn't benefit from their mindshare in music players? Do tell.


Quote:
Six months ago they had 48%. A year ago it was considerably higher.

Nope:





Quote:
Sure they will. They've had plenty of time to come up with something viable, but all they could do is the not so well received N97, or what ever the number is.

N97 isn't even out yet. And even it is just a step on the road towards Nokia 'getting it'.


Quote:
They will definitely be the king of the cheap, or free phones for quite some while, until Apple decides to move there too.

When you still have that much of the smartphone market, you are obviously not king of the cheap phone, as I've said before.


Quote:
I'm convinced that Apple will be moving further ahead. If these others aren't careful, and it may not matter what they do, the iPhone may enter into the iPod situation vs competitors.

It's just not the same situation, really. The digital music player market was fairly immature when Apple jumped in. Not so the cellphone market, which is well-established, and has a number of very large, entrenched players.

Apple's doing quite well now that they've released a 3G model, and Mel, I WANT them to. But if the tech gap ever closes much at all, the days of sunshine and roses are going to change dramatically and very quickly.


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post #317 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

As I said, that's not a good review. It's neutral.

Don't really know how you could read that review and come away thinking that. A "better than the iPhone? it depends" conclusion is quite good for any competing product, I'd think.

Quote:
The ONLY reason why he would get one would be because of RIM's business e-mail. Not exactly a rousing endorsement, eh?

Re-read the review, especially the parts I bolded.


Quote:
You really don't know that.

And you really don't know that they won't, eh?

Let's just say that RIM's past speaks well for them as a company on the whole, just as it does for Apple.

Far as the reviews of the Storm that are negative, I'm well aware of them. I simply was trying to impart to you that not all reviews of it were negative, and they aren't.


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post #318 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by TBaggins View Post

It's not a big difference, and Verizon isn't all that worried. They know that they consistently out-execute ATT, have better networks, better CS, and higher customer loyalty. The iPhone hasn't changed those things.

Don't speak for those you can't speak for. You don't know what Verizon is thinking, except that they rushed out the Storm, which is doing poorly.


Quote:
The iPhone is more a bandaid for ATT's problems than it is a killshot against Verizon. Now, would Verizon like to have the iPhone? Absolutely. Will they pay through the spleen for it? No. Because they feel they don't have to.

AT&T's cell business is doing just dandy. You are the only one who thinks it's having problems. It's not. The iPhone gives them an advantage.




No, actually it's ATT's opinion, if you read closely:

"AT&T, the largest U.S. mobile phone service provider, said iPhone subsidies would cut its earnings per share by 10 cents to 12 cents in 2008 and 2009 and Chief Financial Officer Rick Lindner said the move would put pressure on AT&T's forecast for double-digit earnings growth this year."[/quote]

What you aren't understanding, is that's a one time expense for each subscriber, which is more than made up for by the two year contract. Upfront costs are marginalized over time. You can't use that as being meaningful for the benefits of hving the iPhone. But it's that one number that those who like to believe the iPhone is of little worth that makes you misunderstand the actual situation.

The truth is that companies around the word wouldn't be so eager to enter into these deals with Apple if they didn't see a strong benefit to themselves.

It's the initial large number of iPhone signups that make these numbers stand out. That's a GOOD thing. If they weren't signing up so mant iPhone custoers, the numbers wouldn't mean much. But my family is paying AT&T $220a month for the use of out three phones. Take a guess at how much AT&T will make over the two years of the contract.And that's with a family plan, which gives up some good discounts. Individual plans give AT&T more profit for each customer. AT&T will make a ton of money off eachiPhone customer.

Their financial report is here:

http://www.att.com/gen/press-room?pi...rticleid=26227

Quote:
Sure. Because, y'know, Apple would never drive a highly aggressive deal with anyone that would cause them to pay through the nose to Apple. Steve just doesn't do that.

Oh, stop it already. That's just plain silly!

Quote:
That's silly. 33% is huge, and as was stated before, Verizon, with Alltel included, is significantly bigger than ATT.

33% is one third, a number that will continue to shrink. Even with Verizon it wont grow by much, and Verizon will share half of that resulting number. If Sprint joins eventually, their share will shrink further.

Quote:
Again, you're assuming that China will be as ga-ga for the iPhone as the US is. I expect good sales for Apple in China, but likely not at US iPhone-adoption percentages.

According to the numbers, Chine is already ga-ga.

Quote:
Average GDP in China is quite low, actually... about one-sixth of the US's. Yes, they're starting to build a nice middle class, but that's a fraction of the overall population. Lots of ppl in China can't really afford an iPhone. And again, Apple's brand is not as strong overseas as it is in the US.

Doesn't mean anything. China's affection for high end cellphones is BECAUSE of the lower middle class income. The cell phone is THE big hi end status symbol.


Quote:
Before you get all huffy, yes, I think Apple will sell lots of iPhones in China. But I don't think it'll be the gazillions you seem to be assuming.

I'd be very happy if Chinese iPhone sales equalled US iPhone sales, actually.

...

If they do, then that's 33% of the current market, enough to move the US share down quire a bit, which is exactly what I'm saying.
post #319 of 350
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Don't speak for those you can't speak for. You don't know what Verizon is thinking, except that they rushed out the Storm, which is doing poorly.

You've stated that Verizon is worried, so you're guilty of exactly what you're complaining about.

Btw, RIM makes the Storm, not Verizon. So technically, RIM is the one who would've rushed it out.


Quote:
AT&T's cell business is doing just dandy. You are the only one who thinks it's having problems. It's not. The iPhone gives them an advantage.

I'm far from the only one who's noticed that ATT has its weaknesses, Mel. Check out JD Power or Consumer Reports sometime.. ATT loses almost every time to Verizon.

Or better yet, look at churn rates, since cellular customers tend to vote with their feet. ATT's churn rates (i.e. number of ppl leaving them) are consistently higher than Verizon's. Yes, even after the iPhone.

Now, no one's arguing that the iPhone doesn't help ATT in some ways- data ARPU, for example, is a biggie. But that's mitigated to some extent by ATT having to pay through the nose for the privilege.


Quote:
What you aren't understanding, is that's a one time expense for each subscriber, which is more than made up for by the two year contract. Upfront costs are marginalized over time. You can't use that as being meaningful for the benefits of hving the iPhone. But it's that one number that those who like to believe the iPhone is of little worth that makes you misunderstand the actual situation.

I never said the iPhone was of "little worth". I have said that Apple makes ATT pay handsomely for the privilege, and they sure do.


Quote:
The truth is that companies around the word wouldn't be so eager to enter into these deals with Apple if they didn't see a strong benefit to themselves.

I agree that, overall, the iPhone is a benefit. Phone carriers see their future as being in data, and the iPhone is the most compelling portable data device currently. But that doesn't mean that Steve can ask for the kitchen sink and expect to get it every time, from everyone. China Mobile said no to him for a long time. So did Verizon.


Quote:
Oh, stop it already. That's just plain silly!

So... Steve doesn't drive highly aggressive deals? Umm... err... okay. Not.


Quote:
33% is one third, a number that will continue to shrink. Even with Verizon it wont grow by much, and Verizon will share half of that resulting number. If Sprint joins eventually, their share will shrink further.

Let's say VZW-Alltel's potential to add to Apple's iPhone sales shrinks quite dramatically, down to your original 15% guesstimate. Guess what? That's still sales equal or better than what Apple is getting out of the largest European countries. Does Apple not want to be in France? Germany? The UK? 'Cuz VZW-Alltel will have more customers than there are PEOPLE in any one of those nations (they'll need a couple of quarters of growth to exceed Germany's total population, but it'll happen).

Let's be real here... Apple would LOVE to do a deal with VZW-Alltel once the ATT exclusive runs out. The question is how intransigent the two sides want to be.


Quote:
Doesn't mean anything. China's affection for high end cellphones is BECAUSE of the lower middle class income. The cell phone is THE big hi end status symbol.

Either you can afford it, or you can't. You're wanting it is immaterial. *shrug*


Quote:
If they do, then that's 33% of the current market, enough to move the US share down quire a bit, which is exactly what I'm saying.

Let's say they do add that 33% to the current iPhone market. Even then, VZW-Alltel potentially adds 25-30% to Apple's iPhone sales, again, assuming ATT-like adoption rates. Still very, very far from chump change.


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post #320 of 350
Anyways Mel, I'm off to the gym.

I do wish you'd answer my question as to why you're a bit aggro today... you do seem a tad grumpy. Hope everything's okay in NYC.


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