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GS downgrades Apple, says new product at Macworld unlikely

post #1 of 88
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Shares of Apple slipped about 4 percent Monday after investment bank Goldman Sachs removed the company from its buy list for the first time in more than two years, citing concerns over consumer spending and a belief that Macworld Expo will not see the company embark on a major new product initiative.

In a note to clients, analyst David Bailey reiterated his long-term view that Apple’s ability to innovate will help the company maintain an edge on the competition, driving share gains through sales of existing products while still managing to be first to market in newer categories like Mobile Internet Devices (MIDs).

"That said, the nearer-term outlook is less positive, as it now looks unlikely that Apple will launch a new product category at MacWorld in early January, taking away a potential catalyst for the shares and causing Apple to try to generate demand in a tough environment without the benefit of a new offering in the first part of 2009," he wrote.

In particular, Bailey noted ongoing chatter of a "an upcoming touch-screen tablet," but said "it seems that this product is still in the development stage and will probably not be launched until the middle or back half of 2009."

Meanwhile, the analyst reported that although checks in Asia for the December quarter came back better for Apple than for the other PC and smartphone vendors, some signs of weakness have started to emerge.

"Specifically, shipments of MacBooks, iPod nanos, and iPhone were all slightly lower than what was expected going into the quarter and Apple should face a tougher environment in the March and June quarters as consumer demand takes another leg down," he wrote.

Bailey is expecting iPhone sales of around 5.5 million units for the December quarter, down about 1.4 million units from the September quarter. And while he didn't make a specific call on iPod sales, he noted that "iPod nano shipments dropped off significantly after holding up through the middle of November" while shipments have been stronger than expected for the lower-volume iPod touch.

The Goldman Sachs analyst downgraded shares of Apple to Neutral from Buy for the first time since July 20, 2006. He also trimmed his calendar year 2009 per-share earnings estimate to $4.75 from $5.13 and cut his 12-month price target on the stock to $115 from $125.

Shares of Apple were trading down $4.36 (or 4.4%) to $93.91 on the Nasdaq stock market.
post #2 of 88
GS downgrading Apple? Pot calling the kettle black.
Hey, this Kool-Aid is delicious, what do you put in it?!
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Hey, this Kool-Aid is delicious, what do you put in it?!
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post #3 of 88
I'm assuming or hoping that no new products doesn't mean no updates to existing lines. I've been waiting for new monitors for a while now and Jan. will be the last time I wait. I'll be buying a Dell if monitors aren't announced.

I am also holding out hope for updated Time Capsules.
post #4 of 88
These were the same people that got us the 700 billion bailout mess! Weren't they? Why should we believe them now?
post #5 of 88
on earnings and rumors aren't flying about a new product for January. It will be interesting to see if Apple initiates some sort of buyback to help stock prices regain some losses or at least steady the stock some more (relative to impatient investors perspective). I doubt they'll do anything but they are one of the few companies in a great position to add value to their stockholders investment during this down time.
~Tokolosh
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~Tokolosh
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post #6 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tokolosh View Post

on earnings and rumors aren't flying about a new product for January.

Indeed, the interwebs are unusually quiet for this time of year. Almost too quite....
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"Education is what remains after one has forgotten what one has learned in school." -- Albert Einstein
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post #7 of 88
Apple is not going to introduce a radically new form factor or new line at this time. They will continue incremental product upgrades and add to iTunes services to minimize expenditures. There is no way a tablet will come out at this time. I guar-on-tee it.

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post #8 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dogcow View Post

Indeed, the interwebs are unusually quiet for this time of year. Almost too quite....

Without being too much of a blinded fanboy that normally means the opposite?!!
5-8" MultiTouch Mini Tablet would go down a treat if you're reading!
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5-8" MultiTouch Mini Tablet would go down a treat if you're reading!
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post #9 of 88
That's good news if they aren't introducing any radically new products. Apple needs to tighten up the products they are currently offering. The iPhone OS needs some work both in stability and features. OS X needs lots of work (push email, calendar, etc). The newest hardware has bugs. Less breadth and more depth is a good thing from where I'm sitting.

Sheldon
post #10 of 88
And I'd hardly call the Macbook Air a "major new product" either, in terms of sales potential, and Apple did just fine in 2008. I think the biggest risk for Apple in the short term is simply the bad economy which is going to hurt them, it's just a matter of how much.
post #11 of 88
..................
post #12 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tokolosh View Post

on earnings and rumors aren't flying about a new product for January. It will be interesting to see if Apple initiates some sort of buyback to help stock prices regain some losses or at least steady the stock some more (relative to impatient investors perspective). I doubt they'll do anything but they are one of the few companies in a great position to add value to their stockholders investment during this down time.

Why would you spend your cash on a share buy-back going into a nasty and possibly long recession? Don't you think it's better spent on operations and purchasing companies?

Also, where is he logic behind APple not wanting to release a new "product category" because of the economic situation? I'd imagine Apple would be keen to spur sales any way they can, not sit on stale products when sales are under pressure.
post #13 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by stokessd View Post

That's good news if they aren't introducing any radically new products. Apple needs to tighten up the products they are currently offering. The iPhone OS needs some work both in stability and features. OS X needs lots of work (push email, calendar, etc). The newest hardware has bugs. Less breadth and more depth is a good thing from where I'm sitting.

Sheldon

Very true, we probably could do with a session of decent patches and upgrades. In a similar fashion to the release of Snow Leopard. Tie loose ends before moving on to bigger and better things.
5-8" MultiTouch Mini Tablet would go down a treat if you're reading!
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5-8" MultiTouch Mini Tablet would go down a treat if you're reading!
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post #14 of 88
I have to think it would be unwise for Apple to launch any major new products in the current economy. You would almost guarantee it's failure. Now is the time to perfect what you do right, keep costs in line, reduce prices where you can.

I think Apple is in good shape to ride out the coming storm, but let's face it--earning disappointments are going to be the rule, not the exception, for most companies this quarter.
post #15 of 88
to steal more of the $700 billion of the government bailout that their boy, Hank Paulson, got Congress to pass and Neil Kaskari, another one of their boys, is in charge of distributing.

And if you want to be even more conspiratorially inclined, another GS thug, Larry Summers, has an economic adviser role in the new administration.

My bet is that they will hammer down Apple's stock price, buy it with taxpayer money, make a killing when the price returns to a normal price and then steal the original money instead of giving it back to "we the people."

If you think I'm wearing a tinfoil hat, the joke's on you -- because ordinary people can only have access to aluminum foil. "They" don't want you to have actual tinfoil because those hats are effective!
post #16 of 88
This is funny. These, so called, analysts are just as good as anyone on the rumor sites. They don't know anything at all.
Apple had me at scrolling
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Apple had me at scrolling
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post #17 of 88
I'm afraid Apple really does need to release a netbook or a netbook killer in Q1. They might have timed it well to avoid marginalizing the remainder of their product line for Christmas, but in the past two months netbooks have gone from fringe devices to pushing mainstream in the US. Sadly, my netbook is faster than my 17" MBP for cold boot to Word and to Firefox. I can run Firefox, Excel, and Word at the same time with no issues. I can work in a pretty big Google SketchUp model without problems (after getting rid of the Anti Virus software).

Apple can still make their margins with a Netbook. Hopefully they can address the niggling issues that the other manufacturers have at a reasonable price point.

But, to hope that Apple can keep selling $1500 laptops when the market is shifting to $500 devices is foolish. Non dividend paying companies must continue exponential growth to keep value, which means adding new revenue streams over time. The iPhone has been proven to be a reliable driver of new growth, but loss of revenue in the iPod and MacBook franchises would be devistating.

GS is right on this one, unfortunately.
post #18 of 88
The Goldman Saks and Morgan Stanley downgrades came when Apple Stock was demonstrating some good strength. GS and MS are protecting their positions and those of related Hedgefunds on December Option Contracts. Their Analyst's opinions are based on self interest for their companies, and not on any intention to provide good information on Apple performance for regular investors. Apple is the most manipulated stock on the market! Where is the SEC?
post #19 of 88
[QUOTE=macFanDave;1350401]to steal more of the $700 billion of the government bailout that their boy, Hank Paulson, got Congress to pass and Neil Kaskari, another one of their boys, is in charge of distributing.

And if you want to be even more conspiratorially inclined, another GS thug, Larry Summers, has an economic adviser role in the new administration.

My bet is that they will hammer down Apple's stock price, buy it with taxpayer money, make a killing when the price returns to a normal price and then steal the original money instead of giving it back to "we the people."
/QUOTE]

Not only were they on the bail out list but they are still recommending Microsoft as are 24 other brokerage firms. It's not what you do in business that makes you a valuable asset it must be who you know just like in politics as we experienced in the last election.
KennDDS
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KennDDS
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post #20 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tokolosh View Post

on earnings and rumors aren't flying about a new product for January. It will be interesting to see if Apple initiates some sort of buyback to help stock prices regain some losses or at least steady the stock some more (relative to impatient investors perspective). I doubt they'll do anything but they are one of the few companies in a great position to add value to their stockholders investment during this down time.


what is the point of a buyback anyways? To increase the share price? The price will get hammered anyways and fall. That would seem like a waste of money. Is the point of a buyback for the company to buy low and sell its shares high at a later point to make $$$ ?
post #21 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by D.J. Adequate View Post

I have to think it would be unwise for Apple to launch any major new products in the current economy. You would almost guarantee it's failure. Now is the time to perfect what you do right, keep costs in line, reduce prices where you can.

I think Apple is in good shape to ride out the coming storm, but let's face it--earning disappointments are going to be the rule, not the exception, for most companies this quarter.

i thought steve jobs say you have to innovate during recession. i assume that means release new products?? or do you innovate now and then wait for economy to improve then release it.
post #22 of 88
Apple: it is Firewire! Bring it back!
post #23 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by stokessd View Post

That's good news if they aren't introducing any radically new products. Apple needs to tighten up the products they are currently offering. The iPhone OS needs some work both in stability and features. OS X needs lots of work (push email, calendar, etc). The newest hardware has bugs. Less breadth and more depth is a good thing from where I'm sitting.

Sheldon

I agree that iPhone and OS X do need some work... but as I mentioned in another thread; "iPod was introduced in October 2001... not exactly the best climate of economic stability and consumer confidence." Plus they continued to open retail stores across the country - 51 by the end of 2002.

Sure the iPod was done and ready before 9/11, but they could have sat on it for a few months. They didn't and launching a new product line and continuing to open retail stores seemed like a silly strategy at the time... \
"Education is what remains after one has forgotten what one has learned in school." -- Albert Einstein
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"Education is what remains after one has forgotten what one has learned in school." -- Albert Einstein
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post #24 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by andyapple View Post

GS downgrading Apple? Pot calling the kettle black.

Doesn't this mean that an Apple Tablet come January is DEFINITE?!
The Mother of all flip-flops!!
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The Mother of all flip-flops!!
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post #25 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by bertyao View Post

what is the point of a buyback anyways? To increase the share price? The price will get hammered anyways and fall. That would seem like a waste of money. Is the point of a buyback for the company to buy low and sell its shares high at a later point to make $$$ ?

There are a couple reasons a company would buy back their own stock.
1. To send a strong signal to the investment community that the top management, who should know the most about their own stock value, think that the stock is a bargain and it is poised to increase.

2. They have a lot more cash than they need to run the business so they put that cash to work by investing it in their own company.

3. To decrease the number of outstanding shares. If each share represents a percent of the total capitalization of the company then fewer outstanding shares means that each shareholder owns a larger piece of the pie.

Not saying that Apple should, just trying to explain the usual rational behind the process.

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post #26 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by MacGregor View Post

Doesn't this mean that an Apple Tablet come January is DEFINITE?!

Im hoping so

____________
iPhone, iPod
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iPhone, iPod
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post #27 of 88
I'm no fan of GS but lets face it folks Apple is way over priced and sooner or later investors will realize that. Especially investors with balls as there are a lot of true bargains out there for people to sink money into. I just don't see an appreciation in Apples value in the short term, that no matter what sort of product the deliver. There simply are better opportunities for those that still have investment cash to put into the morass that is wall street.

As to mac World it is likely something is coming. Obviously I don't know what, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a Mini replacement. In Apples case it is the product that they most need to have in salable condition if the economy does in fact get worst. The iMacs are likely not far behind but i think Apple has something special planned there.

The real question is just how bad is the economy. Personally I don't think it is that bad, all we have really seen is a collapse in the overheated housing market. This collapse was something that was going to happen sooner or later as to many markets where selling on speculation and speculation always leads to a market stress. If the economy was truly in depression then why is the bagel shop crammed pack every morning? Surely such is a luxury that people can and would cut back on if money was a problem.

Frankly the mentality of the recession seems to be driven by the same fools that are whining about global warming. In the same manner these people are fueling fear about the future to assure their political success. The biggest problem with either global warming or the recession crowd is that there are so many Americans so easily duped into believing that the favored mindset has the only handle on the issues. Sort of like the people that look at Apple as an invincible investment. It is just not rational to expect people to pour money into Apples stock when so many sweet options are cropping up. That by the way that isn't a negative against Apple just that the market is profoundly different than it was only a few months ago.


Dave
post #28 of 88
So - Apple was on the buy list when it was up near two hundred bucks. And now that it's taken a mighty fall they take it off the buy list? I'm glad I don't pay for analyst advice. They can't even figure out buy low sell high.
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post #29 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by dshel View Post

The Goldman Saks and Morgan Stanley downgrades came when Apple Stock was demonstrating some good strength. GS and MS are protecting their positions and those of related Hedgefunds on December Option Contracts. Their Analyst's opinions are based on self interest for their companies, and not on any intention to provide good information on Apple performance for regular investors. Apple is the most manipulated stock on the market! Where is the SEC?

AMEN, the only thing these epic tools have the ability to see any more are their own colon walls.

Apple is the onyl current safe haven as far as I am concerned.
post #30 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

I'm no fan of GS but lets face it folks Apple is way over priced and sooner or later investors will realize that. Especially investors with balls as there are a lot of true bargains out there for people to sink money into. I just don't see an appreciation in Apples value in the short term, that no matter what sort of product the deliver. There simply are better opportunities for those that still have investment cash to put into the morass that is wall street.

As to mac World it is likely something is coming. Obviously I don't know what, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a Mini replacement. In Apples case it is the product that they most need to have in salable condition if the economy does in fact get worst. The iMacs are likely not far behind but i think Apple has something special planned there.

The real question is just how bad is the economy. Personally I don't think it is that bad, all we have really seen is a collapse in the overheated housing market. This collapse was something that was going to happen sooner or later as to many markets where selling on speculation and speculation always leads to a market stress. If the economy was truly in depression then why is the bagel shop crammed pack every morning? Surely such is a luxury that people can and would cut back on if money was a problem.

Frankly the mentality of the recession seems to be driven by the same fools that are whining about global warming. In the same manner these people are fueling fear about the future to assure their political success. The biggest problem with either global warming or the recession crowd is that there are so many Americans so easily duped into believing that the favored mindset has the only handle on the issues. Sort of like the people that look at Apple as an invincible investment. It is just not rational to expect people to pour money into Apples stock when so many sweet options are cropping up. That by the way that isn't a negative against Apple just that the market is profoundly different than it was only a few months ago.


Dave

Dave...I think you are overreacting to the market. This is not the 2nd great depression. Only my grandfather has an accurate frame of reference, and he laughs, saying this is nothing.

I agree with him.

This sucks, dont get me wrong, but this is not a world-killer.

people are STILL buying stuff, but woe is us, at a rate of about 1% LESS than last year.

Call me when unemployment is at 25% and the Shantytown returns.
post #31 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by iVlad View Post

This is funny. These, so called, analysts are just as good as anyone on the rumor sites. They don't know anything at all.

That's because these analysts are all drinking from the same Kool-Aid fountain. They all come here for scoops. \ Which is why it's more important than ever (for AAPL) to get stories right.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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post #32 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by zunx View Post

Apple: it is Firewire! Bring it back!

That's exactly the kind of innovation we need!

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply
post #33 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by macFanDave View Post

to steal more of the $700 billion of the government bailout that their boy, Hank Paulson, got Congress to pass and Neil Kaskari, another one of their boys, is in charge of distributing.

And if you want to be even more conspiratorially inclined, another GS thug, Larry Summers, has an economic adviser role in the new administration.

My bet is that they will hammer down Apple's stock price, buy it with taxpayer money, make a killing when the price returns to a normal price and then steal the original money instead of giving it back to "we the people."

If you think I'm wearing a tinfoil hat, the joke's on you -- because ordinary people can only have access to aluminum foil. "They" don't want you to have actual tinfoil because those hats are effective!

Dude, if you write a book, I'm buying it.

Jimzip
"There's no time like the present, and the only present you'll never get, is time." - Me
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"There's no time like the present, and the only present you'll never get, is time." - Me
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post #34 of 88
AAPL will be back up to 200 in no time. I just know it!
post #35 of 88
This headline is pretty misleading - they didn't say there wouldn't be new products, just no new product CATEGORIES. Big difference.

It's virtually certain that we'll see speed bumps in one or more lines at the very least, particularly the Mac Pro, which is way overdue for a refresh, and Intel has appropriate chips for it coming soon.

I actually think the current economic climate would be perfect for the introduction of a new budget machine, particularly something like a revamped mini or a midtower.
post #36 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by echosonic View Post

This is not the 2nd great depression. Only my grandfather has an accurate frame of reference, and he laughs, saying this is nothing.

I agree with him.

No kidding. Anyone who calls this the Second Great Depression ("Sloppy Second Depression"?) hasn't a clue in the world.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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post #37 of 88
I did think there might not be nothing new. Maybe new iWork, iLife to go with Snow Leopard.
A 32GB iPhone 3G.

Usually there's rumours when there's new products coming out. A bit of a drought about the rumored table I'd say.
post #38 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Apple is not going to introduce a radically new form factor or new line at this time. They will continue incremental product upgrades and add to iTunes services to minimize expenditures. There is no way a tablet will come out at this time. I guar-on-tee it.

100% wrong as usual Spammy.

It's pretty easy when you avoid any mention of the facts to come up with predictions like this. See, watch ....

"If Apple doesn't come out with a new product at MacWorld, it will only be because it isn't ready yet and will debut later in the year. If anything is a certainty, it's that Apple will expand their multi-touch product range with a midrange device (most likely the mythical Apple tablet), to address the netbook market, and do so before too much of 2009 has passed."

In Windows, a window can be a document, it can be an application, or it can be a window that contains other documents or applications. Theres just no consistency. Its just a big grab bag of monkey...
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In Windows, a window can be a document, it can be an application, or it can be a window that contains other documents or applications. Theres just no consistency. Its just a big grab bag of monkey...
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post #39 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by NeverInDoubt View Post

And I'd hardly call the Macbook Air a "major new product" either, in terms of sales potential, and Apple did just fine in 2008. I think the biggest risk for Apple in the short term is simply the bad economy which is going to hurt them, it's just a matter of how much.

This is a bit much.

How can you call the MacBook Air, which was lambasted on arrival because of it's very "radicalness," and uses several new technologies, and actually sells very well (if you bothered to actually check before you posted), "not a major new product"????


You're just making stuff up here.
In Windows, a window can be a document, it can be an application, or it can be a window that contains other documents or applications. Theres just no consistency. Its just a big grab bag of monkey...
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In Windows, a window can be a document, it can be an application, or it can be a window that contains other documents or applications. Theres just no consistency. Its just a big grab bag of monkey...
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post #40 of 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

No kidding. Anyone who calls this the Second Great Depression ("Sloppy Second Depression"?) hasn't a clue in the world.

Ditto. I choose not to participate and am going on with business as usual.

I just watched the 1951 original of The Day the Earth Stood Still. Too bad the remake wasn't done in D.C.

EDIT: And to GS. Thanks for lowering the value of everyone's stock! BTW, mint.com rocks.
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