Originally Posted by bertyao
i thought steve jobs say you have to innovate during recession. i assume that means release new products?? or do you innovate now and then wait for economy to improve then release it.
I feel, the tough times are *when* you bring your A game. All that R&D and skunkworks stuff, time to polish it and set it loose on the world.
I personally feel this downgrade is GS wanting to influence the share price downwards.
My prediction, is that Apple won't go for something as "radical" as the tablet yet during this time.
However, they've got two angles.
The first, which is more likely, is the netbook. This is the space in-between the iPhone 3G and the MacBook Air. There is a gap here in which a product can be introduced that is:
1. Unlikely to cannibalize product sales of Apple offerings which are more or less expensive
2. Delivering a product which has potential for sales growth particularly during recession
3. Leveraging popularity of iPhone 3G while spreading the risk of new product introduction
Hence, I believe there will be an Apple "netbook" of some sort. Because, as above:
1. The netbook sits comfortably between the iPhone 3G and the MacBook Air. It complements and enhances the Apple ecosystem.
2. There is evidence that consumers are interested in this space, and simply want a portable computing device that is cheaper than a 13" laptop. There is evidence that this trend can carry people/market/Apple through the haze and poor sentiment during the recession, at least a bridge for 6 months into the tablet/ other kickass stuff in the later part of 2009.
3. The netbook can be sold not through Apple Mac channels but through iPhone 3G channels. Having 3G broadband built in, there is a good opportunity of AT&T, for example, partnering even more with Apple by delivering a "subsidised" Apple netbook with built-in 3G access. This model can be extended throughout the world, thus balancing the effects of recession in different countries. This netbook can be rolled out progressively like the iPhone 3G to various countries.
The second, is, of course, the xMac (desktop upgradeable Mac). Which I think is very unlikely.
My other views are as follows:
A. Apple itself invests a significant amount of money into Macworld. To not introduce a significant product would be a big waste of time, money, organisation, and especially, a big waste of important media attention.
B. The January-April time frame is usually, relatively, the lowest period of sales after the successful holiday season. Apple would need a good stimulus, an injection of fresh confidence, if you will.
C. A new Apple netbook, refreshes to the iMac (Nvidia chipset), and possibly announcement of a 30" LED cinema display, AppleTV update, would be a strong kickstart to surviving a tough year.
D. Consolidation is an option, and there will be cost cutting, but the very nature of the Apple business means that for at least January to April, there needs to be some "boost" in the Apple ecosystem, then as the state of the global economy becomes more clear, in April they can start to look at product refreshes, new iPhone 3G model, preparation for the tablet.
E. This will probably be one of Steve's last great accomplishments before he steps down in a few years. Spearheading and growing an endeavour far beyond anyone's expectations, through, in recent history, two major US recessions.