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Citigroup says slow iPhone sales may spur early refresh

post #1 of 68
Thread Starter 
While previewing Apple's fiscal first quarter earnings due next week, investment bank Citigroup reduced its estimates on the electronics maker and said a sharp reduction in iPhone shipments could signal a refresh as early as April.

Reporting through a research note, analyst Richard Gardner braced his clients for the possibility that Apple could announce revenues from its December holiday quarter that come in "several hundred million below" consensus estimates of $9.9 billion.

Nevertheless, he expects the Cupertino-based company will still manage to beat Wall Street's per-share earnings estimate of $1.39 by around 3 cents, thanks largely to better than expected gross profit margins on its holiday product lineup.

Citing a series of checks, Gardner said strong demand for the recently introduced aluminum MacBooks should have driven roughly 40 percent growth in MacBook shipments and 30 percent growth in overall notebook shipments for the quarter. iPod sales also appear to have weathered the economic storm, coming in at around 22 million, representing relatively flat growth from the year-ago, record-setting quarter.

That said, the analyst noted that Apple's overall PC shipment volumes appear to be tracking down sequentially -- thanks to pullbacks in consumer spending -- at a time when they'd normally see a seasonal uptick in the low to mid single digits.

"This shortfall is entirely due to a sharp drop in desktop demand during the quarter," he wrote. "Our checks suggest that desktop shipments could be down 15-20 percent year-over-year during [the fourth calendar quarter of 2008]."

In other potentially bad news, Garnder cautioned that iPhone shipments for the quarter could come in below 4 million, which would represent a near 50 percent drop off from the 6.9 million units the company sold during the third calender quarter of the year, which embodied the launch of the iPhone 3G.

He said Apple appears to have reduced channel inventories of the handsets leading into the seasonally slower first half of 2009, but added that "checks suggest that this could indicate an earlier than normal iPhone refresh in April or May of this year (versus the normal June)."

To reflect his view that Apple will be amongst the victims of reduced consumer spending for the foreseeable future, Gardner cut his price target on the company's shares to $132 from $153 and reduced his estimates for the next three fiscal years. Still, he reiterated his Buy rating on the stock, which he views as "compelling" at current levels where it's trading at just 9X forward free cash flow.

"If the shares pull back $7-8 around earningsas implied by the optionswe would be aggressive buyers," he told clients.

Looking ahead to the March quarter, the Citigroup analyst expects Apple management to guide revenue and per share earnings "well below consensus."

"We expect revenue guidance of $7-8 billion, gross margin guidance of 30-31 percent and earnings per share guidance of $0.65-0.95 versus consensus revenue and earnings per share of $8.3B and $1.13," he wrote. "While this guidance strikes us as conservative, we also believe that current consensus estimates are too aggressive."
post #2 of 68
Please be true. My contract is up in April. Was planning on waiting until at least June to see if announcments are forthcoming...
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post #3 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

Apple will be amongst the victims

Yeah OK.

The last thing that Apple is .... is a victim.
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post #4 of 68
Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the economy will effect how many consumers, but there are alot of factors

1- AT&T 3G Network isn't all it is promoted to be, with very spotty coverage, you may get 3g from one tower, but good luck if you are driving and switching between towers, and ... just no 3G in many areas of major cities like NYC or LA.

2- Iphone 3G is just a retread on the already familiar launch model. looks the same, functions the same with the exception of the addition of the 3G tech and two color choices.

3- Phone Service is expensive, in this day and age, the phone and data plan is just plain expensive for alot of people. AT&T, ROGERS and the other carriers providing the phone make it among the most expensive plans to use, over time, you pay alot of money.

If apple wants the iphone to succeed better than it is tracking right now, they need to open it up and allow people to buy the phone and use it on the carrier they choose. Also, Apple needs to upgrade the phone. Below is the phone most people would drool over.



Consumers want a better speakerphone, high resolution camera/flash, keyboard, interchangable battery. Also cut & paste would be nice, so would the ability to not have disabled app's which the phone won't allow full access.
post #5 of 68
I cant help worrying that the Mac & the iPhone are just too expensive to ever become as sucessful as the iPod which is the only product Apple has ever priced competiviely.
post #6 of 68
iPhone keep dreaming® more like.
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post #7 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchelljd View Post

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the economy will effect how many consumers, but there are alot of factors

1- AT&T 3G Network isn't all it is promoted to be, with very spotty coverage, you may get 3g from one tower, but good luck if you are driving and switching between towers, and ... just no 3G in many areas of major cities like NYC or LA.

2- Iphone 3G is just a retread on the already familiar launch model. looks the same, functions the same with the exception of the addition of the 3G tech and two color choices.

3- Phone Service is expensive, in this day and age, the phone and data plan is just plain expensive for alot of people. AT&T, ROGERS and the other carriers providing the phone make it among the most expensive plans to use, over time, you pay alot of money.

If apple wants the iphone to succeed better than it is tracking right now, they need to open it up and allow people to buy the phone and use it on the carrier they choose. Also, Apple needs to upgrade the phone. Below is the phone most people would drool over.



Consumers want a better speakerphone, high resolution camera/flash, keyboard, interchangable battery. Also cut & paste would be nice, so would the ability to not have disabled app's which the phone won't allow full access.

I'm guessing you don't actually have an iPhone 3G, because your analysis makes no sense. I've taken my iPhone 3G on car trips, into NYC, and elsewhere. The GPS (which isn't in the old iPhone) is great and the coverage is good. Yes, sometimes you fall down to EDGE in the country which is fine to get Google Maps (without satellite imagery) on the move and do email. I had full bars and 3G everywhere except the subway on my visit to NYC.

And users don't really care about interchangeable battery or whether the SDK has full access to the phone. A better camera would be nice, but the iPhone is already the most popular phone on Flickr, so apparently a lot of folks are making due. A keyboard? Removable battery? Not if it changes the form factor, which is perfect for the pocket. Yes, copy & paste... you have one valid point which has been reiterated everywhere. Alternate carriers? The only other GSM in the US is T-Mobile and the US is their biggest market, so that's probably not really having any effect.

In short, Apple needs to continue down the same path they've been on, add a few features, and drive down costs.
post #8 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchelljd View Post

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the economy will effect how many consumers, but there are alot of factors

1- AT&T 3G Network isn't all it is promoted to be, with very spotty coverage, you may get 3g from one tower, but good luck if you are driving and switching between towers, and ... just no 3G in many areas of major cities like NYC or LA.

2- Iphone 3G is just a retread on the already familiar launch model. looks the same, functions the same with the exception of the addition of the 3G tech and two color choices.

3- Phone Service is expensive, in this day and age, the phone and data plan is just plain expensive for alot of people. AT&T, ROGERS and the other carriers providing the phone make it among the most expensive plans to use, over time, you pay alot of money.

If apple wants the iphone to succeed better than it is tracking right now, they need to open it up and allow people to buy the phone and use it on the carrier they choose. Also, Apple needs to upgrade the phone. Below is the phone most people would drool over.



Consumers want a better speakerphone, high resolution camera/flash, keyboard, interchangable battery. Also cut & paste would be nice, so would the ability to not have disabled app's which the phone won't allow full access.

Wow, short sighted on all 3 counts.

1. Coverage is fine, I was making calls from the middle of the Smoky Mountain National Park, and have yet to experience a dropped call in any area I have been, Not saying that coverage is EVERYWHERE, but it is everywhere I would expect it to be.

2. You forgot the addition of GPS, and the iPhone OS 2.0. The addition of GPS alone has dramatically changed how this phone can be used.

3. AT&T plan has cost far less than ANY blackberry plan I've ever had. AT&T has offered to buy out contracts for a lot of companies I know to switch to iPhones, they no longer pay extra fees to link their iPhone to their Exchange Servers the way Blackberry did.

If consumers want all of the stuff you state at the end there, then why has it sold so well? My last phone had an interchangable battery, but by the time I needed to replace the battery, it was no longer available, speakerphone? meh, I've taken 10 pictures with my iPhone, often forget it even has a camera, I will agree with cut and paste, that is coming though.
post #9 of 68
I don't care about a keyboard, I don't care about the camera; the only thing that keeps an iPhone out of my pocket is the monthly fee. Don't tell me how 'competitive' it is... in this uncertain economy, I'm not about to obligate myself to a plan that's double what I pay now, no matter how much more I get. I'm pretty sure I'm not alone here. Apple's just hit the saturation point on folks willing to dole out $70/month for this.

Paying that much more for a data plan feels just like long distance plans used to. Think different!
post #10 of 68
Citi is wrong on this... as usual frankly.

Introducing a new product is not likely to be successful in the face of weakening consumer demand in a receding market. Apple figured this out when they KEPT the original White MacBook around. The most profitable way forwrad for Apple would be to utilize there existing manufacturing efficiencies. which would mean to lower prices on the existing models and add a new model above it to differentiate. ie, expect the 3G phone to be offered in 8/16/32GB models with prices dropping one tier. I admit this ignores the iPhone Nano rumors, but I still think that'll be a Asian market only phone...
post #11 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchelljd View Post

If apple wants the iphone to succeed better than it is tracking right now, they need to open it up and allow people to buy the phone and use it on the carrier they choose. Also, Apple needs to upgrade the phone. Below is the phone most people would drool over.

I think Apple has succeeded with the iPhone already. How many more record quarters do they need to break before you determine Apple's success rate? Opening up to more networks is a moot point. Every provider has an exclusive phone. Why isn't anyone ripping on Palm and screaming to them for the Sprint deal?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchelljd View Post

Consumers want a better speakerphone, high resolution camera/flash, keyboard, interchangable battery. Also cut & paste would be nice, so would the ability to not have disabled app's which the phone won't allow full access.

Let's see:
Speakerphone? Nope. I don't want to hear my conversation out loud and especially those from other people's conversations.

High Resolution Camera? Nope - You want better images, get a real camera. The phone quality is respectable in my humble opinion considering the form factor. A flash, I could handle.

Keyboard? Why? That was the point of the touchscreen. Besides, a physical keyboard is just another mechanical component that will be destined to fail. Don't miss it at all.

Interchangeable Battery? I have never purchased a separate battery for any of my other phones. My first-gen iPhone has yet to have any noticeable battery fade and when the time comes when the battery does die, I'll probably buy whatever the next upgraded phone anyways. Need a 2nd battery? You can buy 3rd-party battery packs that plug into the dock connector. End of story.

Cut & Paste? Whatever. It's a phone. Not a PC. I'm not missing it.

App Store? You're not being clear on this. Aside from all the crap on the AppStore, Apple is continuously improving the store. They are doing a pretty darn good job considering they are really the first to do it this way. I kind of wish Apple would do something to reduce the amount of crap on the AppStore but they are kind of between a rock and a hard place because developers whine about not being allowed to post another pull-my-finger-farting app yet users complain that Apple allows too much crap on the AppStore.
post #12 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by jb510 View Post

Citi is wrong on this... as usual frankly.

Introducing a new product is not likely to be successful in the face of weakening consumer demand in a receding market. Apple figured this out when they KEPT the original White MacBook around. The most profitable way forwrad for Apple would be to utilize there existing manufacturing efficiencies. which would mean to lower prices on the existing models and add a new model above it to differentiate. ie, expect the 3G phone to be offered in 8/16/32GB models with prices dropping one tier. I admit this ignores the iPhone Nano rumors, but I still think that'll be a Asian market only phone...

I think this is right, although, as I said in another thread, I don't think there ever will be an iPhone Nano-- just an 8GB at $100 with 16 and 32GB talking the current slots. I also think it's likely that there would be some hardware refinements on the new models to entice the upsell.
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post #13 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchelljd View Post




Consumers want a better speakerphone, high resolution camera/flash, keyboard, interchangable battery. Also cut & paste would be nice, so would the ability to not have disabled app's which the phone won't allow full access.


The higher resolution camera with flash is definitely on my lists of wants for the iPhones. The one area of modern photography that Apple doesn't seem to understand that personal point and shoot cameras are in the process of merging into phones. The sliding keyboard with gaming controls I wouldn't mind either.
post #14 of 68
I am wondering why the only advantage of the touch keyboard ever mentioned is size-saving? What about customization? When you are entering an URL, email or plain text you get a customized keyboard. How you would do this in hardware? And yes, the US folks never think about internationalization. This is especially an issue with non-Latin languages. The touch keyboard is clear advantage there.
post #15 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchelljd View Post

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the economy will effect how many consumers, but there are alot of factors

1- AT&T 3G Network isn't all it is promoted to be, with very spotty coverage, you may get 3g from one tower, but good luck if you are driving and switching between towers, and ... just no 3G in many areas of major cities like NYC or LA.

People always complains about coverage whether it is Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile .. etc. You will always find people who are not satisfied.

Quote:
2- Iphone 3G is just a retread on the already familiar launch model. looks the same, functions the same with the exception of the addition of the 3G tech and two color choices.

What's wrong with making a new phone based on an already successful previous model? If you have been around during the 1st generation iPhone you would realize that all people wanted were 3G, GPS, and third party apps. In my opinion Apple delivered everything.

Quote:
3- Phone Service is expensive, in this day and age, the phone and data plan is just plain expensive for alot of people. AT&T, ROGERS and the other carriers providing the phone make it among the most expensive plans to use, over time, you pay alot of money.

Owning a smartphone is expensive whether it is an iPhone, BB, Android, or the upcoming Palm Pre. This is why they were not popular among the public.

Quote:
If apple wants the iphone to succeed better than it is tracking right now, they need to open it up and allow people to buy the phone and use it on the carrier they choose. Also, Apple needs to upgrade the phone. Below is the phone most people would drool over.

Consumers want a better speakerphone, high resolution camera/flash, keyboard, interchangable battery. Also cut & paste would be nice, so would the ability to not have disabled app's which the phone won't allow full access.

I am just amazed that people still think higher resolution means better pictures! Phone cameras picture will look terrible even if you have 5MB camera. No matter how high the resolution is you will not get the full potential because the sensor and lens are tiny. My 2MB 6 year old digital camera takes batter pictures than my wife's 8MB pocket camera because mine have much bigger lens and sensor. Until someone comes up with at least a better sensor we are stuck with terrible pictures even with higher resolution (for phone cameras).
post #16 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by mitchelljd View Post

Doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that the economy will effect how many consumers, but there are alot of factors

1- AT&T 3G Network isn't all it is promoted to be, with very spotty coverage, you may get 3g from one tower, but good luck if you are driving and switching between towers, and ... just no 3G in many areas of major cities like NYC or LA.

2- Iphone 3G is just a retread on the already familiar launch model. looks the same, functions the same with the exception of the addition of the 3G tech and two color choices.

3- Phone Service is expensive, in this day and age, the phone and data plan is just plain expensive for alot of people. AT&T, ROGERS and the other carriers providing the phone make it among the most expensive plans to use, over time, you pay alot of money.

If apple wants the iphone to succeed better than it is tracking right now, they need to open it up and allow people to buy the phone and use it on the carrier they choose. Also, Apple needs to upgrade the phone. Below is the phone most people would drool over.

Consumers want a better speakerphone, high resolution camera/flash, keyboard, interchangable battery. Also cut & paste would be nice, so would the ability to not have disabled app's which the phone won't allow full access.

Deleted large iPhone Pro photo from quote for brevity

1- All phone carriers have good and bad points. ATT doesn't have as much coverage as Verizon, Verizon strips capabilities from some phones and replaces it with their own software and charges you extra for the service.

2- The iPhone 3G is an incremental upgrade for the already revolutionary original iPhone. Revolutionary perhaps not in hardware, others had touchscreens first, less buttons, etc. Revolutionary in software, GUI, function, and easy of data/media syncing. Their are a few main points for the iPhone, one of them is you upgrade the software for FREE for more functionality, not so much the hardware with a new price tag. I don't see how you can list that as a downfall when your next point is about price.

3- Go to another nationwide carrier and get a cheaper 3G data plan than what is offered with the iPhone. They are hard to find. In fact, all the major players in the US price they're plans pretty much identically. You might get a cheaper plan, but you will most certainly get a cheaper (do not read as less expensive) phone with less function. You pay less for less. In fact, the iPhone has the best, easiest, and most enjoyable mobile internet I can find on a phone. I feel bad for the Blackjack and Moto Q owners that pay the same $30 data plan for a much worse internet experience. Do I want the plans to be cheaper? Absolutely! But if you want a great phone that can access great amounts of meaningful data easily, my guess is you'll have to pay for it.

Apple was smart to offer a GSM phone, so that it works around the world. I truly believe Verizon wouldn't want the iPhone if Apple made a CDMA model, not unless they could replace all the default iPhone apps with their own music, movie, nav, stocks, and weather apps, charge you $30 for unlimited data, $4.99 for nav, and limit the music store to verizon's store with their own pricing and availability.

Adding a keyboard to the iPhone is counter-intuitive. Another main point of the iPhone is software buttons as opposed to hardware buttons. The keyboard is there when you need it and gone when you don't, without the mechanical, form factor, and unergonomic problems of a slide/flip/fold/swivel/turn-on-it's-side physical hardware that can break. If the software breaks, restart/restore. If the hardware breaks, buy a new phone. SOME customers want a physical keyboard, not all. Some people want PCs, not all.

I think the speakerphone is decent. It's not a megaphone, but I don't think most care about publicizing their conversations too loudly, business or private.

Interchangeable battery? I'm leaving that one alone. Their are positives and negatives to everything.

The camera is the only point that I can agree with. A better camera and better camera software would be nice. But I don't think people buy phones to do digital photography. As long as the picture is pretty clear and gets the subject matter across, that's what most customers ask for in a mobile phone camera. And there will always be incremental hardware upgrades.
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post #17 of 68
This article just backs up the notion that this will be the quarter when apple's lagging in updating their products on the low end, particularly the mini, really catches up to them.

While I agree that now is not the time to introduce new designs on the high end, it's the perfect time to make sure the "budget" options are appealing and competitive.
post #18 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by minderbinder View Post

This article just backs up the notion that this will be the quarter when apple's lagging in updating their products on the low end, particularly the mini, really catches up to them.

While I agree that now is not the time to introduce new designs on the high end, it's the perfect time to make sure the "budget" options are appealing and competitive.

Totally agee! I was looking forward to an iMac and Mini update. I was warming-up to the fact that I would have bought a Mini if it was a good valued update.
post #19 of 68
I'm gonna have to agree with Citi on this one and the poster above.

The plan is what is killing it, especially the new 3G plan. You get more 3G coverage with Verizon or Sprint and T-Mobile is cheaper than AT&T even with their new 3G coverage. Thats why I think Apple could help lower prices by allowing true competition on the carriers. I don't think the telcos are hurting and their $.20 text message shows how good they are at over charging at any given time.

I also like what some carries are doing overseas with data such as peak/off peak and day passes. NetCom in Norway which carries the iPhone 3G has plans for its smartphone where you pay a certain fee for unlimited data for one day. And it doesn't cost more if you subscribe to a month of service or if you just did it day to day (and used it everyday). I think people want flexibility and not everyone is prepared for $30 dollars more each month for some light email (and nobody wants to check email on a cheap Nokia).

I think for me the screen size and layout is the best, something obviously I was against before mostly because a larger Windows Mobile phone was more bulky than a smaller one and didn't have more resolution for the increased size. But other phones are catching up or exceeding in certain areas like the Palm Pre, HTC Touch HD etc...

I'm on T-Mobile and I used 60MB last month. All I do is email, maybe a website or two, and weather. Charging me $30 is not something I can justify. I do want a nice screen phone that is better than my current Tilt which I find the screen is two small compared to iPod Touch. Another thing that drives me mad, and i'm sure has upset other people (as I've heard complaints) is the lack of true IM like AIM or Yahoo. WHERE IS THE PUSH?

I can't decided between real keaboard and a software one. But it should be a choice and can be done much the same way HTC is doing.

I think the problem is Apple went into the iPhone not truly knowing what they wanted to achieve or what customers wanted. They wanted to try iPod + Phone again but do the mass storage that really pushed the iPod out the door. But they never thought about 3G, Apps, or IM services. Its obvious that some areas are lacking and showed when the 3G was launched to many service issues. Also working with all networks was a second thought as well.

Apple would do go to step back and do a total redesign that incorporates more of what people are wishing, because then truly what would people say to an iPhone with a better camera, video recording, copy & paste, a good solution to IM Services, a clean up to the APP Store (my hope was that Apple wouldn't turn into what Handango is for WM where you wade thru crap).

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post #20 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluedalmatian View Post

I cant help worrying that the Mac & the iPhone are just too expensive to ever become as sucessful as the iPod which is the only product Apple has ever priced competiviely.

iphone cost about the same as their competition, and ipods cost more than their competitions, get a clue.
post #21 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

I think Apple has succeeded with the iPhone already. How many more record quarters do they need to break before you determine Apple's success rate? Opening up to more networks is a moot point. Every provider has an exclusive phone. Why isn't anyone ripping on Palm and screaming to them for the Sprint deal?

You don't know the iphone is the only phone tied to one carrier?
post #22 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by UltimateKylie View Post

I'm gonna have to agree with Citi on this one and the poster above.

The plan is what is killing it, especially the new 3G plan. You get more 3G coverage with Verizon or Sprint and T-Mobile is cheaper than AT&T even with their new 3G coverage. Thats why I think Apple could help lower prices by allowing true competition on the carriers. I don't think the telcos are hurting and their $.20 text message shows how good they are at over charging at any given time.

I also like what some carries are doing overseas with data such as peak/off peak and day passes. NetCom in Norway which carries the iPhone 3G has plans for its smartphone where you pay a certain fee for unlimited data for one day. And it doesn't cost more if you subscribe to a month of service or if you just did it day to day (and used it everyday). I think people want flexibility and not everyone is prepared for $30 dollars more each month for some light email (and nobody wants to check email on a cheap Nokia).

I think for me the screen size and layout is the best, something obviously I was against before mostly because a larger Windows Mobile phone was more bulky than a smaller one and didn't have more resolution for the increased size. But other phones are catching up or exceeding in certain areas like the Palm Pre, HTC Touch HD etc...

I'm on T-Mobile and I used 60MB last month. All I do is email, maybe a website or two, and weather. Charging me $30 is not something I can justify. I do want a nice screen phone that is better than my current Tilt which I find the screen is two small compared to iPod Touch. Another thing that drives me mad, and i'm sure has upset other people (as I've heard complaints) is the lack of true IM like AIM or Yahoo. WHERE IS THE PUSH?

I can't decided between real keaboard and a software one. But it should be a choice and can be done much the same way HTC is doing.

I think the problem is Apple went into the iPhone not truly knowing what they wanted to achieve or what customers wanted. They wanted to try iPod + Phone again but do the mass storage that really pushed the iPod out the door. But they never thought about 3G, Apps, or IM services. Its obvious that some areas are lacking and showed when the 3G was launched to many service issues. Also working with all networks was a second thought as well.

Apple would do go to step back and do a total redesign that incorporates more of what people are wishing, because then truly what would people say to an iPhone with a better camera, video recording, copy & paste, a good solution to IM Services, a clean up to the APP Store (my hope was that Apple wouldn't turn into what Handango is for WM where you wade thru crap).

--The data plan for the iPhone is comparable with anything Verizon has to offer, or other smart phones on AT&T. The smaller carriers may have some better deals, but they have to. Sprint may not even survive, so of course they have to do anything they can to woo subscribers.

-- You arguably get more with your data plan and an iPhone because of the ease of use and superior browser. There's a reason mobile internet use on the iPhone/Touch platform has exploded.

-- An iPhone without a data plan isn't an iPhone. People seem to want Apple to make "just a phone with an iPod" but I don't think that's what Apple is interested in. Sure, it sucks if Apple isn't interested in the very thing you want, but that's how it goes. I wish Apple made the UI for half the CE devices in my house.

--Some of this, I think, is because Apple has abruptly moved the smart phone out of the "hard to use for geeks" realm and into the mass market. So people who would have never considered a data plan consider the iPhone, then complain that it costs more to operate. I hate the cell operators to a man, think they charge way too much, but for the time being they get to set the rates. The iPhone as Apple intended it requires a data plan, it costs what it costs, which is perfectly in line with industry norms. People who feel they don't really need a smart phone are probably just going to have to make do with dumb phones with bad UIs. I'm not saying that's good or bad (I actually wish they would make such a phone), I just looks to me like how Apple does things.

-- None of the shortcomings you list would require a "total redesign." Video recording, copy and paste and unified IM are just software updates, easily fit into the existing frameworks. Better camera is inevitable, as are other hardware enhancements.

The phone industry has been dominated by phones du jour distinguished by little more than case design; phone consumers got used to restlessly moving from cheap phone to cheap phone for little more than fashion reasons. My guess is that some adopters of the iPhone expect Apple to change it up every 6 months or so, or they get bored.

Maybe that's an insurmountable obstacle of the demographic, but I think people are going to start thinking differently about handsets and come to realize it's mostly about software, just like their computers at home.

Which means Apple's in a pretty good position to give people what the want, albeit probably not as fast as the want it.
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post #23 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Adjei View Post

iphone cost about the same as their competition, and ipods cost more than their competitions, get a clue.


its a luxury product.

Not good enough to be a true business class phone but too advanced and too pricey to be a consumer grade handset.

It has sold well due to hype, marketing and the millions of Jobs' worshippers out there.

the data plans are crazily priced and the build quality is suspect.

once you get past the fanboys (as with lots of 'cool' products) the demand is limited.

... none of what Citi is saying can be a shock to anyone surely.

In short it is a product that is not nearly worth the money (overall) you have to shell out.
post #24 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archipellago View Post

its a luxury product.

Not good enough to be a true business class phone but too advanced and too pricey to be a consumer grade handset.

It has sold well due to hype, marketing and the millions of Jobs' worshippers out there.

the data plans are crazily priced and the build quality is suspect.

once you get past the fanboys (as with lots of 'cool' products) the demand is limited.

... none of what Citi is saying can be a shock to anyone surely.

In short it is a product that is not nearly worth the money (overall) you have to shell out.

The old canard of "they just sell to the Jobs worshippers" sure is getting threadbare, now that Apple is selling so many of it's handhelds. I guess eventually "Jobs worshippers" will come to mean "most people" and you can be extra smug to be among the (dwindling) elite that see through his wiles.

Find me a Verizon data plan that beats what AT&T offers for the iPhone, and I will revise my opinion that you have no idea what you're talking about.
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post #25 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by WRCz View Post

Paying that much more for a data plan feels just like long distance plans used to. Think different!

you are putting that blame on the wrong people. the data plan and requirement to have one is ATT.

Folks, learn your iphone history. Apple went to every company out there that was supporting GSM and offered them this deal. Which was, at that time, two. Verizon and ATT. One non-negotiable part was that Apple had all control over design. Verizon said no. If they were going to pony up development money they wanted control over the design. ATT said sure, Apple could make what they wanted and ATT would help pay.

which is why ATT has this exclusive contract. They haven't made back their upfront money. The only diff between this and the contract you sign that gets you a phone 'for free' is that there's not ETF built in. Apple can't pay their way out of the contract. It has to run its course.

All of this is known fact that has been mentioned in countless articles.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jb510 View Post

Citi is wrong on this... as usual frankly.

Introducing a new product is not likely to be successful in the face of weakening consumer demand in a receding market. Apple figured this out when they KEPT the original White MacBook around. The most profitable way forwra

Add to this that a fair chunk of the first gen phone users probably didn't see a need to update and it's not a shock that the 3g sales haven't been as huge

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adjei View Post

You don't know the iphone is the only phone tied to one carrier?

no it is not. Every carrier out there has at least one phone, most of them smart phones, that is tied to that carrier.

A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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A non tech's thoughts on Apple stuff 

(She's family so I'm a little biased)

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post #26 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

--The data plan for the iPhone is comparable with anything Verizon has to offer, or other smart phones on AT&T. The smaller carriers may have some better deals, but they have to. Sprint may not even survive, so of course they have to do anything they can to woo subscribers.

-- You arguably get more with your data plan and an iPhone because of the ease of use and superior browser. There's a reason mobile internet use on the iPhone/Touch platform has exploded.

-- An iPhone without a data plan isn't an iPhone. People seem to want Apple to make "just a phone with an iPod" but I don't think that's what Apple is interested in. Sure, it sucks if Apple isn't interested in the very thing you want, but that's how it goes. I wish Apple made the UI for half the CE devices in my house.

--Some of this, I think, is because Apple has abruptly moved the smart phone out of the "hard to use for geeks" realm and into the mass market. So people who would have never considered a data plan consider the iPhone, then complain that it costs more to operate. I hate the cell operators to a man, think they charge way too much, but for the time being they get to set the rates. The iPhone as Apple intended it requires a data plan, it costs what it costs, which is perfectly in line with industry norms. People who feel they don't really need a smart phone are probably just going to have to make do with dumb phones with bad UIs. I'm not saying that's good or bad (I actually wish they would make such a phone), I just looks to me like how Apple does things.

-- None of the shortcomings you list would require a "total redesign." Video recording, copy and paste and unified IM are just software updates, easily fit into the existing frameworks. Better camera is inevitable, as are other hardware enhancements.

The phone industry has been dominated by phones du jour distinguished by little more than case design; phone consumers got used to restlessly moving from cheap phone to cheap phone for little more than fashion reasons. My guess is that some adopters of the iPhone expect Apple to change it up every 6 months or so, or the get bored.

Maybe that's an insurmountable obstacle of the demographic, but I think people are going to start thinking differently about handsets and come to realize it's mostly about software, just like their computers at home.

Which means Apple's in a pretty good position to give people what the want, albeit probably not as fast as the want it.

I never said I wanted a data plan less iPhone. I said I don't want to pay $30. I don't see why plans suited for light emailing can't be included and it would increase sales.

Also I didn't say people wanted just a Phone + iPod. I'm saying thats how Apple approached it. And then kept adding features mainly a good browser in the first version.

IT WILL TAKE a redesign because Copy & Paste inherently is more difficult and may take a new approach. If it really was as easy as people say it would have been done by now. Also I have a feeling that the Push AIM isn't work out so great in their internal trials (it was promised by September of last year) and true Multitasking to a degree (maybe only to apps that have permission) will have to be granted. Which could also require more memory and thus changes to the hardware. The iPod has pushed the old out with new hardware, I wouldn't be surprised to see an iPhone do the same.

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post #27 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

no it is not. Every carrier out there has at least one phone, most of them smart phones, that is tied to that carrier.

Well beyond Windows Mobile (which really everyone for the most part has a similar competing phone). The T-Mobile G1 is available unlocked if you wish, and T-Mobile will also happily unlock it for you. Blackberry is everywhere, and most phones are timed max 6 months exclusives. The Palm Pre will be the same way, as Android will no go to Sprint soon.

I can understand the need to launch on one carrier, but almost 2 years on is crazy. The only reason this doesn't exist outside the US is because #1 carriers had the balls to refuse to pay the crazy deal Apple wanted with the first iPhone (which is now gone shockingly with the 3G) and #2 because of stricter laws especially in the EU (which can be thanked for GSM).

I don't see the harm in selling an unlocked iPhone from Apple.com for $600-800. People would buy it and they could be flexible in the carriers they wanted worldwide including not doing data if they didn't want it. You know if you think about it, people were willing to pay $600 for a locked with 2 year contract phone.

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post #28 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

you are putting that blame on the wrong people. the data plan and requirement to have one is ATT.

Folks, learn your iphone history. Apple went to every company out there that was supporting GSM and offered them this deal. Which was, at that time, two. Verizon and ATT. One non-negotiable part was that Apple had all control over design. Verizon said no. If they were going to pony up development money they wanted control over the design. ATT said sure, Apple could make what they wanted and ATT would help pay.

which is why ATT has this exclusive contract. They haven't made back their upfront money. The only diff between this and the contract you sign that gets you a phone 'for free' is that there's not ETF built in. Apple can't pay their way out of the contract. It has to run its course.
.

Actually Verizon is not on GSM and it was Cingular who accepted Apple offer, which shortly after became AT&T.
post #29 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by UltimateKylie View Post

I never said I wanted a data plan less iPhone. I said I don't want to pay $30. I don't see why plans suited for light emailing can't be included and it would increase sales.

Also I didn't say people wanted just a Phone + iPod. I'm saying thats how Apple approached it. And then kept adding features mainly a good browser in the first version.

IT WILL TAKE a redesign because Copy & Paste inherently is more difficult and may take a new approach. If it really was as easy as people say it would have been done by now. Also I have a feeling that the Push AIM isn't work out so great in their internal trials (it was promised by September of last year) and true Multitasking to a degree (maybe only to apps that have permission) will have to be granted. Which could also require more memory and thus changes to the hardware. The iPod has pushed the old out with new hardware, I wouldn't be surprised to see an iPhone do the same.

No, I get that lots of people would like a cheaper "lite" data plan. Trouble is, that's not how the cell industry operates. You'll notice that Verizon doesn't do that with their full featured smart phones, AT&T doesn't do it with their phones other than the iPhone. It sucks, they're greedy, you bet. But it really doesn't seem to be under Apple's control.

I would guess that copy and paste has been slow to come, not because of technical challenges, but because Apple just hasn't put many resources on it. That's because I would guess that the vast majority of iPhone users never even realize it's missing.

My bet is that Apple is looking to implement more of what they already have: a kind of OS X "services" menu approach, in which you do an end run around copy and paste per se by putting app specific hard links where most people need them: mail this, make a sticky of this, add this to my picture library.

That would be a typical Apple "works for 95% of their users but infuriates the other 5% by being insanely restrictive" move. Or insert your preferred ratio here.

At any rate, even if they are working on traditional cut and paste, and even though push is delayed, I still don't see how that entails any major revisions to any software or UI underpinnings, unless I'm misunderstanding what you mean by "redesign."
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post #30 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

The old canard of "they just sell to the Jobs worshippers" sure is getting threadbare, now that Apple is selling so many of it's handhelds. I guess eventually "Jobs worshippers" will come to mean "most people" and you can be extra smug to be among the (dwindling) elite that see through his wiles.

Find me a Verizon data plan that beats what AT&T offers for the iPhone, and I will revise my opinion that you have no idea what you're talking about.


You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time, but you'll never fool all of the people all of the time...


find you a better Verizon plan?

nope?

to do that I'd have to live in the states, which fortunately I don't.
post #31 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archipellago View Post

You can fool some of the people all of the time and all of the people some of the time, but you'll never fool all of the people all of the time...


find you a better Verizon plan?

nope?

to do that I'd have to live in the states, which fortunately I don't.

OK. Does the carrier with the iPhone where you are have better data plans on their other smart phones than what they charge for the iPhone?
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post #32 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlituna View Post

you are putting that blame on the wrong people. the data plan and requirement to have one is ATT.

Folks, learn your iphone history. Apple went to every company out there that was supporting GSM and offered them this deal. Which was, at that time, two. Verizon and ATT. One non-negotiable part was that Apple had all control over design. Verizon said no. If they were going to pony up development money they wanted control over the design. ATT said sure, Apple could make what they wanted and ATT would help pay.

which is why ATT has this exclusive contract. They haven't made back their upfront money. The only diff between this and the contract you sign that gets you a phone 'for free' is that there's not ETF built in. Apple can't pay their way out of the contract. It has to run its course.

All of this is known fact that has been mentioned in countless articles.



Add to this that a fair chunk of the first gen phone users probably didn't see a need to update and it's not a shock that the 3g sales haven't been as huge



no it is not. Every carrier out there has at least one phone, most of them smart phones, that is tied to that carrier.


what utter rubbish...

One thing straight....Apple sets the prices...end of story.

AT&T voice and data plans are governed ONLY by what Apple charges AT&T per handset.

As you correctly state, AT&T need to get their money back, but they would have much more flexibility in the price if Apple were more flexible on sell in price.

I'm sure AT&T would love to lower the prices but they can't.
post #33 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by UltimateKylie View Post

I never said I wanted a data plan less iPhone. I said I don't want to pay $30. I don't see why plans suited for light emailing can't be included and it would increase sales.

Also I didn't say people wanted just a Phone + iPod. I'm saying thats how Apple approached it. And then kept adding features mainly a good browser in the first version.

IT WILL TAKE a redesign because Copy & Paste inherently is more difficult and may take a new approach. If it really was as easy as people say it would have been done by now. Also I have a feeling that the Push AIM isn't work out so great in their internal trials (it was promised by September of last year) and true Multitasking to a degree (maybe only to apps that have permission) will have to be granted. Which could also require more memory and thus changes to the hardware. The iPod has pushed the old out with new hardware, I wouldn't be surprised to see an iPhone do the same.


case in point...
post #34 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archipellago View Post

what utter rubbish...

One thing straight....Apple sets the prices...end of story.

AT&T voice and data plans are governed ONLY by what Apple charges AT&T per handset.

As you correctly state, AT&T need to get their money back, but they would have much more flexibility in the price if Apple were more flexible on sell in price.

I'm sure AT&T would love to lower the prices but they can't.

Then every other handset manufacturer is gouging in precisely the same way, so unless your alleging some kind of price fixing scheme, you have no point.
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post #35 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

OK. Does the carrier with the iPhone where you are have better data plans on their other smart phones than what they charge for the iPhone?


absolutely...

in the UK on O2 unlimited web browsing is called a bolt on which can be had for £7.50 a month, so you can pick any tariff you like and add unlimited data for that price.
post #36 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Then every other handset manufacturer is gouging in precisely the same way, so unless your alleging some kind of price fixing scheme, you have no point.


nope the others have more realistic pricing.

price fixing..??? absolutely!

there is too much money to be made!!!
post #37 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archipellago View Post

I'm sure AT&T would love to lower the prices but they can't.

I don't think AT&T would love to lower prices. Why lower prices for something that is selling so well?

The iPhone is the most popular phone in the US. Not just most popular smartphone / dataphone. It outsells even the ubiquitus moto razor.
post #38 of 68
I'm betting this analyst's estimates are way, way off. Looks to me like he's attempting to manipulate the stock downward so he can either short AAPL or pick up a bunch at a reduced price.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #39 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

I'm betting this analyst's estimates are way, way off. Looks to me like he's attempting to manipulate the stock downward so he can either short AAPL or pick up a bunch at a reduced price.

I tend to agree, overall analysts never understand Apple. They usually base their estimates on what other computer companies, or software companies, or consumer electronics companies do, but fail to take into account that Apple is all three.
post #40 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by WRCz View Post

I don't care about a keyboard, I don't care about the camera; the only thing that keeps an iPhone out of my pocket is the monthly fee. Don't tell me how 'competitive' it is... in this uncertain economy, I'm not about to obligate myself to a plan that's double what I pay now, no matter how much more I get. I'm pretty sure I'm not alone here. Apple's just hit the saturation point on folks willing to dole out $70/month for this.

Paying that much more for a data plan feels just like long distance plans used to. Think different!

Bingo!

Except here in Canada it's $104/month. Minimum 3 year contract.
For that price, not in this lifetime. Rogers is smoking crack.
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