Apple 1st quarter earnings

Next Wednesday Apple will release their earnings for the quarter, and the analysts expect them to post 1.39 per share in GAAP earnings.

To me that looks mathematically impossible - it can't be that low. A year ago they posted 1.76, and that was without any iPhone earnings or deferred revenue. They haven't offered any discounts larger than last year, their stores are packed, they are the top selling stuff on Amazon. Average sales dropped 3.3% this Christmas vs last Christmas for all retailers, and it seems to me that Apple will be in positive territory because it did better based on all reports.

Even if they grow at 0%, that is still 1.76 in earnings. Apple has 1.48 in deferred earnings from last quarter, which spread over 7 quarters is 0.21/share. Total without any iPhone sales this quarter and zero growth would be 1.97/share or so.

6.89 million phones were sold last quarter, so they basically recognized 1/8th of that and deferred all revenue and earnings for the other 6 million phones. Since deferred earnings were 1.48, that means that they earn 0.24 per share for each million phones, spread over 8 quarters, or 0.03/quarter/million phones.

If we conservatively expect them to sell 4 million phones, that is 0.12 this quarter, bringing expected earnings up to 2.09/share.

And really, I think that they will do better than this - maybe 2.30/share. The analyst expected earnings of 1.39 are really beyond the pale unless I am missing something.

Any thoughts?

I disagree. Everybody now knows now that Steve is not coming back - it removes a shadow from over the company.

If I am right, and earnings are almost double expectations, then the stock will go up. The market and analysts can't continue to to ignore this - the P/E of the company will be very very low if they do ignore it.

I'm not selling, that is for darn sure. This could be a really big jump in stock price next week - of course I thought that last quarter as well.

It was really frustrating to be right 3 months ago, that Apple would blow away earnings (and they did, with 125% growth in non-GAAP earnings, etc. it was an earnings report way beyond what the expected earnings) and the stock didn't go up.

But if I am right, there will have to be tons of upgrades for AAPL. You can't keep a year forecast of $4/share when the first quarter comes in at $2.30.

Well, I was right that they beat, but they did not get anywhere near my 2.30 figure. Anyway - up $8 after hours, which is better than a kick in the head.

Midwinter - hopefully you held on and are enjoying this as much as I am.

I think that all the uncertainty and fear is gone out of the stock now. The two big fears were "what happens when Steve leaves or dies?", and "will people stop buying expensive apple stuff in the recession?". Investors hate uncertainty.

Apple looks like it will do fine without Steve, it is already priced in that he is not coming back, and if he does that will be a plus. Also, it looks like Apple is still growing Mac sales while its competitors are struggling - Apple will exit this recession with $50 billion or so in cash, I don't think that there is a safer investment out there right now.

Investors are thirsty for safety - the stock may be volatile, but the underlying business will continue to become more and more valuable over time. Apple stock is the new gold for investors, I think it will gradually go higher over the year (not to $200 for a few years, though).