Originally Posted by caliminius
I guess I must have missed the headline announcing CD's death. Last thing I read was that CD was STILL 80% of all music sold. Yep, certainly seems like the internet has replaced CDs. When did 20% make anything a standard?
Also, comparing Blu-Ray to DVD-Audio (or SACD) isn't very accurate. Unlike Blu-Ray, DVD-A/SACD was never well supported by the studios. Even SACD's creator, Sony, didn't bother to release much of anything on the format. The situation was worsened when one of the studios introduced the DualDisc format.
And these USB flash drives you're depending on to kill Blu-Ray discs. They currently seem to top off at 64GB, not much more space than a Blu-Ray disc. Of course, they're also in the $120 range for consumers. I don't know how much cheaper those might be if purchased in bulk by a movie studio, but even then printing a Blu-Ray is still going to be many many magnitudes cheaper. And talking about hard drives, you quickly run out of space. A 1TB drive might give you space for 50 Blu-Ray quality movies. Then it's off to buy another one.
Where are you getting downloads that are higher quality than Blu-Ray's? The answer is nowhere. The best you're going to download is ILLEGAL rips of Blu-Rays. Most downloads and streams top out at 720p. None of them (except maybe the illegal rips) offer Blu-Ray's lossless audio. All of them are low bit rate. Certainly doesn't sound as good as Blu-Ray (and definitely not better).
And exactly how are downloads/streams any more compatible when you want to watch them on your TV? The only way that would even be vaguely true is if everyone hooks their computer up to their TV. Without hooking up your computer to the TV, download services are pretty much completely incompatible. Netflix streaming is only available on the Roku box, Xbox 360 and HD TiVos. iTunes HD movies can only be viewed via the AppleTV and standard iTunes video can only be viewed via AppleTV or an iPod connected to the TV. Live Marketplace videos are only available on the Xbox 360. Playstation Store videos are only available on the PS3. Amazon Unbox is only available on TiVo. Vudu content requires a Vudu box. That certainly sounds like an awful mess of compatibility. You can pick up any Blu-Ray player and KNOW you'll be able to play any Blu-Ray movie.
Thanx for talking sense, and going off of what's actually going on in the market, rather than presuming that wishful thinking about the digital convergence will make it happen.
FWIW, Blu-ray adoption rates are currently ahead of where the DVD was at a similar juncture, and the YTD market share for Blu-ray titles has now reached 16%. In fact, the growth curve with Blu-ray last year was higher than for video download purchases.
The first Blu-ray title to sell 100,000 copies was Casino Royale, which came out less than two years ago. The first titles to go over 500,000 copies sold were Iron Man and Wall-E, and those releases came out less than six months ago. And The Dark Knight was the first Blu-ray title to cross the 1,000,000 mark (and now 2,000,000 mark), and that happened less than two months ago. These sales trends certainly doesn't speak to a format on its last legs. By comparison, the first DVD title to sell 1,000,000 copies was The Matrix, which came out 2 1/2 years after the format's introduction. And that title benefited from an exclusivity window in which the VHS version did not come out until six weeks later.
The bottomline that nobody in the tech press talks about is that digital video downloads are simply a replacement for PPV and rentals. Devices like Apple TV and the Vudu player are not competing with Blu-ray, but rather the on-demand and PPV options proliferating now from the cable companies, Directv, and Dish.