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Apple planning connected television, Apple TV with DVR - report

post #1 of 87
Thread Starter 
Although Apple has publicly denied interest in such markets, investment bank Piper Jaffray said Thursday it expects the company to introduce a networked television in the next two years and update its Apple TV set-top-box with DVR capabilities by year's end.

"We expect Apple to design a connected television over the next two years (launching in 2011) with DVR functionality built in," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a lengthy research report on Thursday. "These recorded shows could then sync with Macs, iPhones and iPods over a wireless network."

Predictions

Such a device would further cement the Cupertino-based company's footprint in the digital living room, Munster agues, offering interactive TV, music, movie, and gaming features in an all-in-one package. By leveraging its ubiquitous iTunes ecosystem, Apple would also be capable of developing a television set that stands out from the competition, he says, as it wouldn't require a set-top-box or device attachments.

"With the use of a CableCARD for digital HD TV signal, Apple could effectively replace the home entertainment system (including a music stereo, cable box, Blu-ray/DVD player, and gaming console) with an all-in-one Apple television," Munster wrote.

He believes this approach would allow the electronics maker to command a premium among a competitive field of budget TVs, differentiating itself with software that makes setup of complicated home entertainment devices as simple as using its existing Apple TV product.

The analyst sees the company laying the foundation for these advances into the living room by year's end, with a new version of its Apple TV set-top-box that will include a coaxial line-in and supporting DVR software for recording live television.

Although Apple maintains that Apple TV is still one of its hobbies, rather than a core growth driver, Munster estimates the company will sell 6.6 million of the devices during the current calendar year, up from an estimate 2.1 million units last year.

"While 3x growth may seem aggressive, on the December 2008 quarter conference call Apple indicated that Apple TV sales were up 'almost 3x' year-over-year in the quarter," he wrote. "If we apply this growth rate throughout calendar 2009, it would indicate Apple TV units of over 6 million in calendar 2009."

Rationale

As part of the rationale fueling their belief that Apple is about to embark on a broader push into the living room, Munster and his team of analysts cited the following events and revelations:

Indications From Management: The company appears to be determined to capitalize on its opportunity to bring the iTunes ecosystem to the living room. On the Q1'09 conference call, interim CEO, Tim Cook, said, "We're going to continue to invest in [the Apple TV], because we fundamentally believe there is something there for us in the future."
DVR And TV-Related Patent Filings: Patents filed in October 2006 and published in March 2008 indicate that Apple is exploring DVR functionality, which would require updated Apple TV hardware (with a TV input) and software.
LG Partnership For LCDs: Apple recently announced a five-year, $500 million agreement with LG Electronics for supply of LCD screens. While this agreement likely covers LCDs for Macs, displays, and portable devices, it could also include LG's larger LCD TV displays.
The Addressable iTunes User Base: Apple's addressable market for Apple TVs is strong and growing. As of September 2008 Apple has over 65 million iTunes users, and as of December 2008 Apple has sold over 32 million iPhones and iPod touches, which can already be used as remote controls for the Apple TV.
Apple Could Win In A New Market: Piper believes the television market is increasingly moving towards a connected TV environment where software will be the key differentiator. Despite the ~70% price declines in the overall TV market in the past three years, Apple could enter this high volume (~10m US units a year) market at a premium price point because of its ability to deliver hardware and software that work well together. Apple has indicated that it only wants to participate in categories it feels it can make a difference (and win) in, and like the smart phone market, we believe connected TVs fit the company's criteria.
It should be noted that while Piper Jaffray appears to have issued its report based on conjecture, the firm appears to have done so with much higher conviction than it has with its other speculative reports.

An illustration from Apple's recent DVR patent filing.

Munster acknowledged would-be naysayers in agreeing that the "television hardware market is a bad business," but argues that this only rings true if "you don't change the rules of the game." To this end, he believes Apple is capable of offering the best-in-class software and hardware, to which it can extend its premium pricing model.

In gauging Apple's potential market opportunity, the analyst pointed to a recent survey from the Leichtman Research Group which noted that 40 million US homes (or 35% of households) owned an HDTV as of last November, with those figures expected to double in the next four years, equating to a US addressable market of 10 million units a year.

"The argument that Apple will not enter the television market because prices have declined by ~70% in the past three years is a similar argument used to conclude Apple would not enter the cell phone market, given phones had seen similar price declines," he wrote. "The bottom line, 10 million HDTV's sold in the US a year is a real market, and if history repeats itself, Apple will find a way to compete in a commoditized market with a premium priced product."

Munster acknowledged DVR abilities could cut into sales of TV shows on the iTunes Store, but he believes any "low-margin losses" in that segment could easily be overcome through increased sales of higher-margin hardware.

This chart compiled by Piper Jaffray illustrates the crowded market competing for customers in the digital living room.

Tying in the iPhone and Games

While less likely in the near term, Munster believes Apple could eventually wrap iPhone games into its living room strategy by bring them to big screen TVs. He believes the iPhone will inevitably succeed as a gaming platform, which may compel the company to entice its developer community to write games suited for gameplay on a larger canvas.

"In fact, the iPhone or iPod touch could itself operate as a touchscreen gaming control for a game-centric Apple TV," the analyst told clients, seemingly in reference to a recent technology demonstration to this effect. "And with Apple's App Store technology, the company could sell games directly through the Apple TV or a future Apple television."

As for Apple's reluctance to enter the gaming console market thus far, Munster points to low sales volumes of those device. However, he thinks the company would be more open to exploring the market if its gaming technology was "simply a supplementary feature to a home entertainment hub."
post #2 of 87
More bullshit analysis.

My own BS analysis:

Apple won't be making any sort of television this year or for the next 1,000,000 years.

DVR capabilities on the Apple TV; yes, in the fall.
post #3 of 87
I still have my doubts that Apple will make a full fledged TV.
I'd love to see what they could do but conventional wisdom seems to suggest that
they'd simply be happy making the ancillary devices for the TV.

Unless they're looking to merge computers and HDTV in ways that few have attempted.

DVR capability isn't a bad idea. Buffer to the HDD and utilize an online guide and you're golden.

CableCard - I doubt it. It's very hard to get a license for computing needs. ATI is the only one that I know of.
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post #4 of 87
Gene Munster needs to put down the crack pipe.... I'm waiting for iTunes radio and these guys are hung up on DVR and cable boxes... Why would apple allow you to record content for free that they currently sell?
post #5 of 87
Apple TV + DVR = Dream come true

If Apple made a serious effort to provide HDTV tuner/DVR functionality as nicely as they do for music and movie consumption, it would finally close the home theater loop for a big swath of the population and I would be among the first buyers.
post #6 of 87
I call BS as well. Although I'd LOVE for Apple to update AppleTV with DVR functionalities, I just cannot see this happening:

1. iTunes Store
2. CableCard is MESSY - unlike the wireless industry (and others) Cable is not really nationwide. I'm in ATL, and I cannot get Time Warner Cable (not that I want to)
3. What about satellite? There's no equivalent to CableCard for satellite users.


HOWEVER, I could see a possibility in the nascent iTV technology. This is something that Microsoft has been trying to implement for their XBox 360, but due to bandwidth issues in the U.S. has yet to come to market. I could see Apple negotiating with some ISPs (maybe AT&T?) for this. iTV would be relatively clean way to bring DVR functionality to AppleTV in a very Apple-like manner. There would be no need for coax since everything is done via ethernet/wireless.
post #7 of 87
It's sooo clear to anyone who has watched Apple these many years that there is no way they are going to miss out on trying to be the smart, connected living room hub. They have the iTunes, iPod and iPhone platform, media and service pieces nailed, and a faithful base of users, account holders + a thriving developer ecosystem.

The WHAT I am not so sure on but two different posts I have written attempt to frame this one:

What it Means to be a "Social" Media Center: Boxee, Apple TV and Square Connect
http://thenetworkgarden.com/weblog/2...-connect-.html

Apple, TV and the Smart Connected Living Room
http://thenetworkgarden.com/weblog/2...tv-and-th.html

Check em out if interested.

Mark
post #8 of 87
I'm curious: Did Munster talk to any of the people who produce TV shows? Or perhaps to anyone from the networks?

Sure, from a technological standpoint Apple could make a big iMac capable of receiving a digital TV signal. They could easily add syncing and timeshifting. But I could just see them approaching the networks with an offer to work with the vendor of one of the premier video editing (and more crucially, consumer video editing) platforms available to timeshift their material and copy it to various digital devices. He'd get about halfway through the pitch before he was tossed out on his ear.

Digital TVs are dumb[1] because broadcasters like them that way.

[1] They're actually fairly powerful computers because of the work involved in authenticating, decoding and decompressing the signal, but you're not supposed to know that.
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post #9 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amorph View Post

I'm curious: Did Munster talk to any of the people who produce TV shows? Or perhaps to anyone from the networks?

Sure, from a technological standpoint Apple could make a big iMac capable of receiving a digital TV signal. They could easily add syncing and timeshifting. But I could just see them approaching the networks with an offer to work with the vendor of one of the premier video editing (and more crucially, consumer video editing) platforms available to timeshift their material and copy it to various digital devices. He'd get about halfway through the pitch before he was tossed out on his ear.

Digital TVs are dumb[1] because broadcasters like them that way.

[1] They're actually fairly powerful computers because of the work involved in authenticating, decoding and decompressing the signal, but you're not supposed to know that.

I agree. Much as we all can see the 'perfect' Apple PVR/Set Top Box/AppleTV?DVD/BlueRay/iTunes Box I think this is just wishful thinking. The industry resistance is likely to be too great. Throw in the TV and Apple will be taking on too many very powerful competitors in one fell swoop. If they can do it, and make it work well, however, Apple will have scored a MAJOR touch down.
post #10 of 87
Here's a mockup I did a few years ago...

post #11 of 87
I would tend to expect Apple to look in an unconventional way, such as using a TV schedule to download broadcasts over the Internet instead of cable TV.
post #12 of 87
I highly doubt Apple would jump on the CableCard bandwagon, just as its going out of fashion. Its a pain in the ass for consumers for one thing, and a huge support nightmare trying to get your jackass local cable company to set it up (I spent about 2 weeks trying to get my HD Tivo set up with Comcast, who just couldn't figure it out).

With Tru2way coming, I might expect Apple to go for that, but most likely Steve Jobs and co see the whole concept of broadcast TV as "old", and will continue to push AppleTV as an IPTV device.

I.e. I call bullshit on this also.
post #13 of 87
There is absolutely no need for DVR capabilities in the Apple TV. What we need is a better content delivery system. Why do folks subscribe to cable or satellite? Is it the hardware, or is it the content? Apple needs to get the studios to allow TV shows on a subscription basis, and live streaming of sports content (MLB.TV, etc.). We currently do not have the Ã* la carte programming we desire with cable or satellite, and Apple already has the delivery system in place. Apple could put the cable and satellite companies out of business.
post #14 of 87
I just hope that, since Steve doesn't have to go in to work every day, he is able to
spend more time with his hobbies.
post #15 of 87
More like a Mac with integrated cable/tv support. Something like this would be perfect for bedrooms, dorm rooms, dens, etc. where space might be an issue.

I already have a 20" iMac with EyeTV setup in my bedroom and it's an almost perfect all-in-one device. Although, I do have a VNC client on my iPhone, it lets me control the Mac from my iPhone's little screen, I would like to see EyeTV & iTunes Store integration in FrontRow though, so i could control everything with the remote from my bed.

As far as having an all-in-one in the living room, I don't think there's to many people who'd be willing to get rid of their stereos. But to be able to combine everything else seems like it would be great.
Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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Disclaimer: The things I say are merely my own personal opinion and may or may not be based on facts. At certain points in any discussion, sarcasm may ensue.
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post #16 of 87
"we expect"? I think this article title should replace "report" with "speculation."
post #17 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by nagromme View Post

"we expect"? I think this article title should replace "report" with "speculation."

Well it's speculation yes, but saying Apple will make a touch screen Mac is also speculation, and I'd bet on that also happening. Yes it's speculation, but it's intelligent speculation. Only a fool would argue against Apple making a TV. I just setup a new LG TV for my sister yesterday, it only cemented my feelings further on this matter. Yes, I know there's auto-tune, but most people like their TV setup a particular way, and all these companies make the most confusing and ugly TV software imaginable.

Apple will make a TV, it's only a matter of time. CES 2010? Very possible.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #18 of 87
This story needs to be retitled, "Gene Munster: Look What I Can Pull Out of My Butt".

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #19 of 87
Two things to keep in mind:

1.Apple makes money when you rent a movie or buy something on iTunes. It makes nothing when you record your cable broadcasts. It also makes nothing when you buy or rent DVDs.

2. AppleTV is the only product that Apple sells for less than it costs to make. It relies on revenue from iTunes rentals to make up for this loss.

Given those two facts, why would Apple want to augment this device to draw people AWAY from iTunes content? And why would it want to be forced into negotiations with Cable companies, considering how much flak it already gets from its dealings with AT&T?

Just because you want it to happen doesn't make it a good business move for Apple.

If you really want a DVR, use Elgato's EyeTV. It exports everything I record directly to the AppleTV. Works perfectly.
post #20 of 87
"Munster acknowledged would-be naysayers in agreeing that the "television hardware market is a bad business," but argues that this only rings true if "you don't change the rules of the game.""

Translation: We know we're in the weeds, but if we say something like this, we at least look like we're covering our asses. Pretty flowers! Pretty flowers!

If Apple ever got into the business of making a HUB-like device that collected DIGITAL content from cablecards and satellite TV and such, and, say, called such a thing a DIGITAL HUB, do you really think they'd package all that functionality into a TV???

"Say, mom? Dad? I think I'd like to schedule a few dozen programs. Do you mind if I interrupt your movie for 15 or 20 minutes? No? Gee thanks. Well, sure, I could use that perfectly fine digital hub Macintosh back there in the study, or better, this MacBook you bought me. Yes, it has a mouse and a keyboard and the input would be much easier for such tasks and yes I wouldn't be interrupting your movie, but no. Apple put all that in the *TV*, so we're all stuck here."

Jesus.
post #21 of 87
DVR would be great but I doubt Hollywood would allow it.
Fix the interface- for easier search, repeat of videos, etc, etc, etc,.
Add Mouse capabilties and Safari.
Streamline quicktime (simplify the formats) for all of these devices - there are too many different formats that are incompatible with each other.
post #22 of 87
From having gathered various Apple patents related to television and multi-touch, Piper Jaffray expects Apple to release a touch screen HDTV in the near future.


Note: Rob Enderle contributed to this report.
post #23 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrjoec123 View Post

Two things to keep in mind:

1.Apple makes money when you rent a movie or buy something on iTunes. It makes nothing when you record your cable broadcasts. It also makes nothing when you buy or rent DVDs.

2. AppleTV is the only product that Apple sells for less than it costs to make. It relies on revenue from iTunes rentals to make up for this loss.

Given those two facts, why would Apple want to augment this device to draw people AWAY from iTunes content? And why would it want to be forced into negotiations with Cable companies, considering how much flak it already gets from its dealings with AT&T?

Just because you want it to happen doesn't make it a good business move for Apple.

If you really want a DVR, use Elgato's EyeTV. It exports everything I record directly to the AppleTV. Works perfectly.

Why are there so many on here that are so solely concerned with Apple making money and not the consumer getting more for his ?
If Apple should only continue to be making profits on a product they are selling to me- than they should only charge $50 for the AppleTV because that's basically what's its worth to me. It's worth more to Apple then it is to me. Why should Apple keep making money off of my machine.
post #24 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by God of Biscuits View Post

From having gathered various Apple patents related to television and multi-touch, Piper Jaffray expects Apple to release a touch screen HDTV in the near future.


Note: Rob Enderle contributed to this report.

Well adding his name does ruin any possible ounce of credibility to this story, but saying that I have believed Apple were making a TV before I read it. They simply are.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #25 of 87
Are the pop-under ads really necessary?
post #26 of 87
drobo plus a mac mini equals a great home setup, but I'd love to see dvr on the mac. Common usage for that would require a tunable input signal from sat or digital cable. DirecTV partnered with TiVo years ago (and still does): it's not improbable that Apple could do a similar deal.

When you consider the amount of bandwidth available from a heavy satellite user like DirecTV, versus relying on cable or dsl service, a DTV or Dish partnership integrated with AppleTV could leverage the satellite download speeds for the larger Apple rentals.

cool ideas. I'm not holding my breath for the all-in-one tv, though.
post #27 of 87
Hey, I want to join in on the random predictions as well!

1. AppleTV will include compatibility with iPhone games in a 2009 update.
2. AppleTV will include an iPod dock in the next hardware update
3. You'll be able to easily sync all content between AppleTV and iPhone

A DVR? Maybe. Who doesn't already have one that wants one?
post #28 of 87
Reads like a wish-list to me too. However I can see Apple TV with a PVR being a massive hit. It's the main reason I'm holding off getting one.

Now, since were tossing random ideas around, can I ask for it to have a built in Freeview decoder for the UK market?
post #29 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by Booga

A DVR? Maybe. Who doesn't already have one that wants one?

A question I have about the DVR idea is; where's the need for a DVR if Apple ends up offering an iTunes TV subscription service? There could be a few tears. Basic, Premium and All-you-can-eat/watch. Music would remain al-a-carté, as would movies, but TV shows are "different" - a subscription service for TV shows would be a killer service. Of course this service would require two exceptions; "live" news and "live" sport. A dashboard like widget system would also be killer. One dedicated button on the "newly designed" remote for this. Would be very handy for getting access to information like weather or the lotto numbers for example.

To be clear: you don't need to record stuff if you can stream it from iTunes to your TV, whenever you choose.
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #30 of 87
There is: Common Interface

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DVB-CI

Quote:
Originally Posted by w00master View Post

3. What about satellite? There's no equivalent to CableCard for satellite users.

Here 50% of all household have satellite TV, most of them using Common Interface modules.

I am tired to hear this US centric discussions every six months. I don't see Apple producing 5-10 variants of AppleTV for the different TV standards.

Next: Analyst predicts that Apple will have to produce a CDMA iPhone in the next 12 month.
post #31 of 87
post #32 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by webweasel View Post

Reads like a wish-list to me too. However I can see Apple TV with a PVR being a massive hit. It's the main reason I'm holding off getting one.

Now, since were tossing random ideas around, can I ask for it to have a built in Freeview decoder for the UK market?

i for one agree with you! bring on the age of the apple hditv or whatever they plan to call it.http://forums.appleinsider.com/image...s/1biggrin.gif
post #33 of 87
10 million HDTVs per year may be a real market, but so is the 30 million tower PCs sold every year in the US and Apple completely ignores that market.

I don't believe that Apple can deliver television over IP. Most internet service providers have bandwidth caps that prevent large scale video downloading. When you don't control the means of distribution you're stuck playing by someone else's rules.
post #34 of 87
"Developing..."

No siren?
post #35 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

investment bank Piper Jaffray said Thursday it expects the company to introduce a networked television in the next two years

Geez, that's really putting his neck out on the line. Two years is an eternity in the tech world.
post #36 of 87
OK, my turn to play analyst

No way will Apple release a TV.
I think they should release a new Apple tv were it's no longer a set top box. Even if Apple doesn't want people to call it that, that's what it is right now, because its functionality is limited.
They should include blu-ray and dvr functionality (though i doubt they will because of itunes) so it's an all in one device for your living room. By september bluray drives will be affordable. Eventually physical media will go away but people need a transitional product, where they can play their old dvds and have the option for blu-ray.

They will probably release an sdk for developers to create widgets and games for AppleTV, but the big question is the controls. They could release a touchscreen controller instead of the one we have now but you kinda need to be able to operate it without looking at it, which could be a problem.

Iphone integration will be nice but i don't think it will make it a huge success. It needs to be appealing as a stand alone device.
post #37 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by dougit View Post

I did, really...

http://dougitdesign.com/blogs/blog_1...-Apple-TV.html

Hey Doug nice to see you here. I've enjoyed a couple of your blog posts in the past.

Hell I'd buy an Apple HDTV if it had that Apple polish touch to it that made my experience that much better.
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post #38 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by satchmo View Post

Geez, that's really putting his neck out on the line. Two years is an eternity in the tech world.

Totally agreed. That aspect is borne of an analyst needing a placeholder and a long enough time horizon to be "right" so long as they do "something" material in the next 24 mos, he's covered.

Anything can happen in the next 12 mos to completely change the equation.
post #39 of 87
All of you calling BS on this I believe are wrong.

If Apple had not just signed a 5 year contract with LG, I would not believe this story. In the past that was the thing that always stopped me from thinking Apple would go into the TV market. Cell phones are one thing, but making TV's? Now with LG on board they gain instant access to the hardware.

It makes perfect sense for their digital hub road map into the living room. I know it is the thing that I always wish for when I turn the TV on. Apple TV just doesn't go far enough. We can all imagine how perfectly they will do it and we will all be saying, "Of course. This is how TV was meant to be."

As for the networks and tv manufacturers, they will fight it and in the end look like idiots.

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post #40 of 87
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrjoec123 View Post

Two things to keep in mind:

1.Apple makes money when you rent a movie or buy something on iTunes. It makes nothing when you record your cable broadcasts. It also makes nothing when you buy or rent DVDs.

2. AppleTV is the only product that Apple sells for less than it costs to make. It relies on revenue from iTunes rentals to make up for this loss.

Given those two facts, why would Apple want to augment this device to draw people AWAY from iTunes content? And why would it want to be forced into negotiations with Cable companies, considering how much flak it already gets from its dealings with AT&T?

Just because you want it to happen doesn't make it a good business move for Apple.

If you really want a DVR, use Elgato's EyeTV. It exports everything I record directly to the AppleTV. Works perfectly.

I agree about the cable companies thing, but they should include a dvd/bluray drive in it as a trojan horse, so people can try itunes, because it is a superior and more convenient way to get access to new content. That is what is stopping it now from being a huge success.
It is an insurance policy much like Windows on the mac. I want to know that it is the only device i need for my flat screen tv. Right now most people might be interested in over the air downloading, but they don't see the value in the current product. I want a complete solution.
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