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January figures suggests a recession-resistant Q2 for Apple

post #1 of 43
Thread Starter 
Despite the red ink flowing from retailers and PC makers, Apple is expected to ride out its second fiscal quarter ending in March with respectable numbers nearly in line with its performance last year.

Mac sales

Citing its own market research and numbers from NPD, research analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray has released a report estimating Mac shipments at 2 to 2.2 million units for the three-month period ending March, in line with the Street consensus of 2.2 million units.

That's -6% growth compared to the nearly 2.3 million Macs Apple sold in its year-ago quarter. Munster also notes that last year, Apple had just launched the MacBook Air; this year, there were no mainstream Macworld Expo hardware introductions to boost sales in the quarter.

Despite the lack of growth in Mac sales over last year, the report stated "We believe this data will be perceived as a neutral or a slight positive given the uncertainty surrounding the Mar-08 quarter."

Desktop Mac sales are down the most over last year, reflecting warnings Apple presented in its latest investor conference call citing education and government markets hit hardest by recession-related cuts. Piper Jaffray's models indicate that sales of MacBook Pros actually grew over last year however, taking some of the bite out of those lost sales.

In the previous quarter ended December, Apple reported Mac sales growth of 9%, in contrast to the shrinking overall market for generic PCs as reported by often-cited market research firm IDC. With Apple expected to post anywhere from -13% to -4% growth for this quarter over a year ago, results for the generic PC market are likely to be significantly worse. Piper Jaffray's figures suggest -2% growth in the summer quarter for Apple, flat sales in the fall, and a return to unit growth by the winter.

iPod, iPhone and Apple TV sales

The report also targeted iPod sales of 9 to 10 million units; Street consensus is 9.5 million. This reflects growth of -15% to -6% over last year's sales of 10.6 million iPods.

The group is also modeling for iPod average selling prices (ASP) to fall slightly, reversing an upward trend in ASPs as users moved toward more expensive iPod models such as the high end iPod touch during the recent holiday shopping season. Apple does not break down iPod sales reports by model.

Munster said it was difficult to predict ASPs from NPD's data, but that "this data suggests that the mix of iPod touches may exceed our expectations in the Mar quarter." One factor pushing sales of the iPod touch is the availability of apps from the iPhone App Store. Apple has been focusing on gaming for the touch in its iPod marking.

iPhone sales are forecast to reach 4.4 million, representing significant growth over last year's first quarter sales of 1.7 million and up slightly over the winter quarter. Apple TV is similarly expected to again sell more than three times its sales in the year ago quarter as it did in the winter quarter, although Apple continues to watch the market as a "hobby" and still does not view the segment as a primary business.

Combined, Apple's total Q2 sales are expected to achieve 4.8% year over year growth, down tremendously from the 42% growth it experienced last year but above the level of growth anticipated for the battered PC and consumer electronics industry.
post #2 of 43
I wish the never ending good news about Apple would be reflected in AAPL stock value!
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post #3 of 43
Does not look like entirely good news to me. Keep your fingers crossed that there will be no more bad news.

I hope that the current situation will bring Apple closer to the ground in some respects, e.g iPhone worldwide distribution model.
post #4 of 43
If Apple update their desktop machines more than once a decade they might sell more.

I thought one of the advantages of moving to Intel would be more regular specification bumps between the major annual upgrades.
post #5 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hattig View Post

If Apple update their desktop machines more than once a decade they might sell more.

I thought one of the advantages of moving to Intel would be more regular specification bumps between the major annual upgrades.

I used to say that till I shelled out $10,000 for a late model (as they called it) Mac Pro 8 core / dual 30 ACD and tons of RAM and 4 1 TB internal drives and GT 8800 cards etc ... now for some strange reason I have this feeling I don't want to see a new Mac Pro just yet ... strange isn't it?
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post #6 of 43
I've been to the local mall twice since Valentine's Day. The mall has been busy since it's school vacation week here. However, the Apple store has been absolutely crammed full of people. There are as many people in there as during the Christmas rush.

I didn't stick around long enough to determine if they were buying. However, I did note that the MacBooks seemed to be the most popular item by far.

The second most popular section of the store was the accessories section. This jives with the sentiment that people are spending less.

The good news here is that the Apple brand is still strong and the Apple stores are doing their part to build awareness.
post #7 of 43
Quote:
Apple TV is similarly expected to again sell more than three times its sales in the year ago quarter as it did in the winter quarter, although Apple continues to watch the market as a "hobby" and still does not view the segment as a primary business.

Again this ridiculous statment. What does it mean? :
1.) Was it selling so poorly last year? Or is it a big hit? Or is it still a flop? It's never advertised in print or TV anymore. No advertising usually means they've given up.
2.) Three times what? Three times nothing is nothing.
3.) "Hobby"?? Read failure. Is it considered a "hobby' because it brings entertainment to your TV or because it's a flop? Why is it even sold if they don't take it seriously. Was the iPod ever considered a "hobby"? For years it was basically a music device but was a phenomenal success and never once mentioned as a "hobby".

What are the figures? Without them those "statistics" are totally misleading and bogus.
post #8 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Again this ridiculous statment. What does it mean? :
1.) Was it selling so poorly last year? Or is it a big hit? Or is it still a flop? It's never advertised in print or TV anymore. No advertising usually means they've given up.
2.) Three times what? Three times nothing is nothing.
3.) "Hobby"?? Why is it even sold if they don't take it seriously.

What are the figures? Without them those "statistics" are totally misleading and bogus.

It's simply filler to make the article actually sound and seem relevant.
post #9 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by satchmo View Post

It's simply filler to make the article actually sound and seem relevant.

LOL
post #10 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by satchmo View Post

It's simply filler to make the article actually sound and seem relevant.

Or you could take the alternative view which is that teckstud, who basically criticises every single article and every single post in much the same way no matter what the content, ...

is similarly just filling the air with stuff to make hiself sound relevant.
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post #11 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2 View Post

Or you could take the alternative view which is that teckstud, who basically criticises every single article and every single post in much the same way no matter what the content, ...

is similarly just filling the air with stuff to make hiself sound relevant.

Or he is salaried to do this and perhaps sitting at a desk in Redmond
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post #12 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2 View Post

Or you could take the alternative view which is that teckstud, who basically criticises every single article and every single post in much the same way no matter what the content, ...

is similarly just filling the air with stuff to make hiself sound relevant.

And what did you just post? Nothing relating to the article except a lame personal attack. How pathetic.
post #13 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Or he is salaried to do this and perhaps sitting at a desk in Redmond

Oh no- I'm under attack by the Kool-aid brigade. Help me! Help me!! I'm afraid!! NOooooooooo!!!
post #14 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hattig View Post

If Apple update their desktop machines more than once a decade they might sell more.

I thought one of the advantages of moving to Intel would be more regular specification bumps between the major annual upgrades.

No. Moving to Intel wouldn't affect upgrades, and besides, Apple has always wanted to go to an annual schedule. Besides there is nothing to update to, until Intel releases new chips.
post #15 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Oh no- I'm under attack by the Kool-aid brigade. Help me! Help me!! I'm afraid!! NOooooooooo!!!

No sense of humor eh? Or was I too close to the truth
Actually I wonder about those that are 100% negative in Mac blogs, why do they bother even being here? The psychology of it is fascinating. Is it a new mental disorder perhaps, blogiopathy maybe?
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post #16 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

No sense of humor eh? Or was I too close to the truth
Actually I wonder about those that are 100% negative in Mac blogs, why do they bother even being here? The psychology of it is fascinating. Is it a new mental disorder perhaps, blogiopathy maybe?

Yes- caused by being forced to work on Windoze PCs all day.
I'm really not 100% negative- honestly I'm not. You all just get bent out of shape perhaps when I get to close to the truth?
post #17 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Yes- caused by being forced to work on Windoze PCs all day.
I'm really not 100% negative- honestly I'm not. You all just get bent out of shape perhaps when I get to close to the truth?

Ok ok truce

I use Mac and PC (XP Pro / Vista and now 7 too) all day too ... Luckily I work for myself so i can limit the exposure to M$ to a safe level.
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post #18 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I used to say that till I shelled out $10,000 for a late model (as they called it) Mac Pro 8 core / dual 30 ACD and tons of RAM and 4 1 TB internal drives and GT 8800 cards etc ... now for some strange reason I have this feeling I don't want to see a new Mac Pro just yet ... strange isn't it?

We surmise that when Snow Leopard comes, and better yet we start getting software updates that takes advantage of the multi-core processors and the new OS, our current Leopard OS Mac Pros will seem like Model T Fords.
post #19 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Ok ok truce

I use Mac and PC (XP Pro / Vista and now 7 too) all day too ... Luckily I work for myself so i can limit the exposure to M$ to a safe level.

Cool. First thing I do when I get home every night and weekends when I get up is turn on the iMac- which by the way I love along with Leopard. There I said it- can we all sing Kumbaya now?
post #20 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Again this ridiculous statment. What does it mean? :
1.) Was it selling so poorly last year? Or is it a big hit? Or is it still a flop? It's never advertised in print or TV anymore. No advertising usually means they've given up.
2.) Three times what? Three times nothing is nothing.
3.) "Hobby"?? Read failure. Is it considered a "hobby' because it brings entertainment to your TV or because it's a flop? Why is it even sold if they don't take it seriously. Was the iPod ever considered a "hobby"? For years it was basically a music device but was a phenomenal success and never once mentioned as a "hobby".

What are the figures? Without them those "statistics" are totally misleading and bogus.

If you take the deferred revenue, which is for both AppleTV and iPhone, and back out the iPhone (based on the bits that Apple gives), then you can get an estimate for AppleTV. In my calculations, I get sales of around 100K-200K per quarter. That said, some "analysts" estimate 6M AppleTVs were sold in 2008, so I could be missing something.

As for hobby, I believe Apple refers to it as a hobby because
1. the technology isn't really ready - Apple believes it really needs to be HD (preferably 1080p) but it takes too long and costs too much to send HD files over the net.
2. the content isn't all there - Studios don't want to change their models and make content available. It looks like it will take increased piracy and the further erosion of prime-time television viewership to get them to change.
3. the consumer isn't really ready to switch away from cable/satellite, though the movement from buying to renting or no DVDs has begun.
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post #21 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

And what did you just post? Nothing relating to the article except a lame personal attack. How pathetic.

Personal attacks rarely contain smilies.

Also, I contribute a lot and (mostly) try to not make it personal. I will admit that sometimes you do drop the anger and have something to say, but you also say a terrific lot of negative things. Personally, I always feel horrible when I realise I've made some lame hate-filled comment (like most of us do at one point or another), and usually try to apologise or make up for it with the next comment. You should try it.
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post #22 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

We surmise that when Snow Leopard comes, and better yet we start getting software updates that takes advantage of the multi-core processors and the new OS, our current Mac Pros will seem like Model T Fords.

I hope our current machines will become Ferraris because of the new OS!

I am hoping the upgrades will come fast as Apple will have made the work for the programmers who wrote to spec reasonably simple with a sort of 'multi core SDK' and they will be able to recompile to take advantage pretty easily. I also suspect there will be a quasi multi processor ability within the new OS to allow non compliant code take some advantage, sort of a Classic Mode if you will. I have no knowledge of anything I am saying , lol, just basing this on years of using Macs and how Apple tend to approach these things in the past. Add to that the Finder, if true multi core it may speed many operations up too.
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post #23 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Cool. First thing I do when I get home every night and weekends when I get up is turn on the iMac- which by the way I love along with Leopard. There I said it- can we all sing Kumbaya now?

In 8 part multi-core harmony .. oh wait we need Snow Leopard for that!

p.s So where do you work that forces PCs on you? Just curious
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post #24 of 43
Here's to an update to the iMac and Mini... But seriously, who thinks a 6% drop in profit is not red ink?!

For Apple to get any of my money in the next few quarters they need a non SIM-locked phone for the US market, a $100+ price drop on the MacBook, and rave reviews on the 17" MBP. Upgrade the mini and get the price $100 lower and I will put up another electronic sign in the office with a large LCD TV.
post #25 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Was the iPod ever considered a "hobby"? For years it was basically a music device but was a phenomenal success and never once mentioned as a "hobby".

In the iPod's first six quarters (10/2001 to 3/2003), units sold were 125, 57, 54, 140, 219, and 80K. But Apple couldn't call it a hobby because its net income (for all of Apple) for those six quarters was 38, 40, 32, -45, -8, and 14M. Excluding the -195M in CY 4Q00, the income levels were lower than any quarter since 1997. How would it explain why a beleaguered company was working on a hobby?
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post #26 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Cool. First thing I do when I get home every night and weekends when I get up is turn on the iMac- which by the way I love along with Leopard. There I said it- can we all sing Kumbaya now?

I don't know who you are or what, if anything, you did with our beloved antagonist but it is not nice to post under someone else's account.
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post #27 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I wish the never ending good news about Apple would be reflected in AAPL stock value!

Have been wishing that for a while now. I'm holding AAPL for the long term though, so I guess it'll be worth the wait
post #28 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2 View Post

Personal attacks rarely contain smilies.

Also, I contribute a lot and (mostly) try to not make it personal. I will admit that sometimes you do drop the anger and have something to say, but you also say a terrific lot of negative things. Personally, I always feel horrible when I realise I've made some lame hate-filled comment (like most of us do at one point or another), and usually try to apologise or make up for it with the next comment. You should try it.

I've always tried to stay on topic except when attacked. Just because something is said critical of Apple products doesn't make it negative per se. So I really don't have anything to apologize for. You seem like I said something personal against you and should apolgise to you- but in reality I haven't. That is unless you are the originator of the lame "three times the sales' quote. But even if that were the case I definitely would not apologize and you would owe me one for making such an inept statement.
post #29 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by mark2005 View Post

If you take the deferred revenue, which is for both AppleTV and iPhone, and back out the iPhone (based on the bits that Apple gives), then you can get an estimate for AppleTV. In my calculations, I get sales of around 100K-200K per quarter. That said, some "analysts" estimate 6M AppleTVs were sold in 2008, so I could be missing something.

As for hobby, I believe Apple refers to it as a hobby because
1. the technology isn't really ready - Apple believes it really needs to be HD (preferably 1080p) but it takes too long and costs too much to send HD files over the net.
2. the content isn't all there - Studios don't want to change their models and make content available. It looks like it will take increased piracy and the further erosion of prime-time television viewership to get them to change.
3. the consumer isn't really ready to switch away from cable/satellite, though the movement from buying to renting or no DVDs has begun.

The technology is there, it is 720p MPEG 4. Not all of the content providers seem to understand this. The studios do get that the future is internet. They all offer their content with ads on the web. Install Boxee and you'll see. The consumer will switch once they realize how pointless the existing model is. Apple wants to control the distribution, the studios don't want them too. Apple is likely stalling on releasing their own version of Boxee type software because they're in negotiations with the content providers. Once it is all settled it'll take off.
post #30 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamraj View Post

Have been wishing that for a while now. I'm holding AAPL for the long term though, so I guess it'll be worth the wait

OTOH, GE stock is incredibly low right now and well worth a look. I've loaded up with a ton of it.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply
post #31 of 43
Just a rhetorical question... wouldn't it make sense for one of the premier computer companies in the world to develop a stock market/economy analysis (perhaps even some kind of AI) tool that they could use for planning and product rollouts? I have to think they have a 'secret lab' at Apple with analysis engines crunching ginormous amounts of data that might affect their company. As a matter of fact, it baffles me that they don't have a visible research department solely dedicated to combing patents for acquisition/licensing.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

 

Get the lowdown on the coming collapse:  http://www.cbo.gov/publication/45010

Reply
post #32 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I hope our current machines will become Ferraris because of the new OS!

If I didn't imply that, I certainly meant to. As such, I have revised my comment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I am hoping the upgrades will come fast as Apple will have made the work for the programmers who wrote to spec reasonably simple with a sort of 'multi core SDK' and they will be able to recompile to take advantage pretty easily. I also suspect there will be a quasi multi processor ability within the new OS to allow non compliant code take some advantage, sort of a Classic Mode if you will. I have no knowledge of anything I am saying , lol, just basing this on years of using Macs and how Apple tend to approach these things in the past. Add to that the Finder, if true multi core it may speed many operations up too.

I suspect that current apps will be noticeably improved with Snow Leopard on intel multi-quad processors. Some apps will require extensive recoding to take advantage of multi-core processors. While Apple will make it as easy as possible, some applications, if not most, will require extensive rework.

I don't expect SN configured applications will be backward compatible. At least I hope not. Time to push forward and not be dragging a ball and chain at the same time.
post #33 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I don't know who you are or what, if anything, you did with our beloved antagonist but it is not nice to post under someone else's account.

Too funny,

Hey I always bring the best out in people, it's my Obama touch So all together ... "Kumbya my friends ..."
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post #34 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamraj View Post

Have been wishing that for a while now. I'm holding AAPL for the long term though, so I guess it'll be worth the wait

I put my entire IRA in to AAPL when it was at $39 ... I never gambled before in my life and I am trying not to panic ... \
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post #35 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Again this ridiculous statment. What does it mean? :
1.) Was it selling so poorly last year? Or is it a big hit? Or is it still a flop? It's never advertised in print or TV anymore. No advertising usually means they've given up.
2.) Three times what? Three times nothing is nothing.
3.) "Hobby"?? Read failure. Is it considered a "hobby' because it brings entertainment to your TV or because it's a flop? Why is it even sold if they don't take it seriously. Was the iPod ever considered a "hobby"? For years it was basically a music device but was a phenomenal success and never once mentioned as a "hobby".

What are the figures? Without them those "statistics" are totally misleading and bogus.

1 your comprehension of written English does indeed seem to be very poor, if you can't understand what you quoted

2 what you say is true, but you really can't comprehend why Apple would keep their numbers to themselves? where are the numbers for the Roku, Vudu etc. ?

3 for Hobby, read HOBBY, again the lack of understanding you have is only on show because you open your mouth (or in this case "type") to prove where it is you are lacking. the Apple TV is at best a brilliant device that meets some peoples needs VERY WELL, and at worst is a "placeholder" for an improved device, that there isn't the infrastructure (technically or politically {studios}) available to support its intended service.. YET.

you constantly bitching and moaning isn't going to change ONE SINGLE THING. so unless you can show us YOUR numbers for the product YOU have invested your time and money into SUCCESSFULLY and prove to the world how YOU really CAN do it lots better, then maybe you would GROW UP and stop acting like a spoilt kid.
I don't see how an anti M$ stance can be seen as a bad thing on an Apple forum I really can't!

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I don't see how an anti M$ stance can be seen as a bad thing on an Apple forum I really can't!

nagromme - According to Amazon: "SpongBob Typing Tutor" is outselling Windows
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post #36 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by whiz1187 View Post

The technology is there, it is 720p MPEG 4. Not all of the content providers seem to understand this. The studios do get that the future is internet. They all offer their content with ads on the web. Install Boxee and you'll see. The consumer will switch once they realize how pointless the existing model is. Apple wants to control the distribution, the studios don't want them too. Apple is likely stalling on releasing their own version of Boxee type software because they're in negotiations with the content providers. Once it is all settled it'll take off.

There's a lot more that needs to be done to make Internet-based viewing cost-effective for the consumer, and profitable enough for the distributor, creator, and middlemen to survive. The current Internet stream, rental, or purchase model can't even generate enough revenue to pay for producing a reality TV show. The revenue generated is negligible relative to the other TV or movie models.

The studios are offering their content as they experiment and explore what consumers might be willing to pay for (either with dollars or advertising eyeballs). Even Apple is exploring (i.e. the survey) whether their vision (fully Internet, no DVD, no broadcast/cable/satellite DVR) is workable.
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post #37 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

I put my entire IRA in to AAPL when it was at $39 ... I never gambled before in my life and I am trying not to panic ... \

Based on the Apple stock price, that was way back either in 1985 or sometime in 2005.

If you started in 1984 then after all the stock splits, you are way way ahead. Even a small investment of $10K at the time would have been in hundreds of thousands by now, after three "2 for 1" stock splits in 1987, 2000 and 2005.

If you started in 2005, then you are still way ahead but not by much. But, you consolation is that people like me who are supposed to have very diversified portfolios -- investing in multual funds -- have actually lost capital money (not just lost profit).

They say you are supposed not to place all your eggs in one basket, and it is always a good idea. Obviously, it did not work for me and many stockholders via mutual funds.

However, individuals who dabble in individual stocks for their portfolio may not be as lucky as you are. Imagine if you have invested in those high-flying financial or real stocks; or god forbid GM.

I just did a research on the history of Munster's stock recommendations. Those who bought Apple stocks from the Summer 2007 until the Summer of 2008, based from Muster's Buy recommendations, would have lost more than 30-50% of their actual investments.

I am not sure why the speculations of Munster are quoted so much by Apple Insider. Definitely, he was too rosy in his Apple stock 12-month anticipated price, since mid 2007. Moreover, many of his speculations about what Apple would do are also offmark. The most famous right now, is a 45million iPhone in 2009, one that is unlikely this year.



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Dividends and Stock Split History of Apple

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix....irol-dividends
post #38 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

you would owe me one for making such an inept statement.

HAHAHAHA

coming from the blackest kettle thats some criticism of the colour of the pot.

Inept statements are your forte
I don't see how an anti M$ stance can be seen as a bad thing on an Apple forum I really can't!

nagromme - According to Amazon: "SpongBob Typing Tutor" is outselling Windows
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I don't see how an anti M$ stance can be seen as a bad thing on an Apple forum I really can't!

nagromme - According to Amazon: "SpongBob Typing Tutor" is outselling Windows
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post #39 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by whiz1187 View Post

The studios do get that the future is internet. They all offer their content with ads on the web. Install Boxee and you'll see.

News flash: Hulu content providers want Boxee to remove Hulu from its interface! The studios sure have a funny way of showing that they get that the future is internet.
"you will know the truth, and the truth will
set you free."
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"you will know the truth, and the truth will
set you free."
Reply
post #40 of 43
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

OTOH, GE stock is incredibly low right now and well worth a look. I've loaded up with a ton of it.

I hope they don't have to cut their dividend to maintain aaa credit rating.
Your ton could end up being a half-ton.
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