I agree that new web standards will go a long way towards reducing the need for RIA's like Flash. However, there are two problems with your argument:
1) Internet Explorer won't implement many of these new technologies, including SVG graphics.
2) The latest standard technologies (HTML 5, new CSS animations, etc) can only go so far for functions like charting, animations, grids, and other applications that businesses need for complex RIA's.
That's why I'm in the JavaFX camp. Open technologies are better than closed ones, and JavaFX is the open RIA technology to bet on.
Yes, I am biased, since I'm a Java developer as well as a Sun fan. However, Apple and Sun have far more in common than you think, and certainly have far less in common with Adobe than they don't have in common with each other.
I will disagree on the relevance of MSIE (or at least that it will continue to echew standards in the future), but I will agree that if there has to be an RIA to pick that JavaFX is indeed the best or most likely choice for Apple to make.