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Emerging iPhone contenders charted, compared by RBC - Page 2

post #41 of 72
2/21/09 at 12:07am
Quote:
Originally Posted by NasserAE View Post

You are looking at this from AT&T point of view and we are looking at it from Apple point of view. Between Oct 2007 and March 2008, Apple sold an average of 20,000 iPhone a day. You do the math.

It's called supply AND demand --- you have to look at both sides.

From the carriers' point of view, LG Voyager is a 1/2 assed first attempt copycat that costed significant less in terms of handset subsidies --- that managed to outsell the iphone when it was launched.
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post #42 of 72
2/21/09 at 12:51am
Some of these phones are a lot better on paper than they are in reality.

I saw the HTC one last night (one of my friends bought one) and it was a lot less responsive and intuitive than my iPhone.
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post #43 of 72
2/21/09 at 5:33am
Quote:
Originally Posted by smokeonit View Post

no mention that ONLY the iPhone has multitouch...

comparison: FAIL

Doesn't the Palm Pre have multitouch? There's also a few phones on that where we don't know one way or the other yet.

I wonder why the author of this comparison chose the N86 over the N97? Surely the N97 is a closer match to the iPhone?
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post #44 of 72
2/21/09 at 8:07am
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

It's all predicated on the assumption that the carriers are willing to continue to heavily subsidize the iphone to the extent that AT&T has to pre-announce a profit margin warning. If the carriers are no longer willing to heavily subsidize the iphone, then Apple has to lower the prices they charged on the carriers for the iphone3.

Remember that when the 3G iphone came out, AT&T and Apple renegotiated on their original deal. Everything is negotiable.

This is hilarious! Did you not read AT&T's last earnings announcement? Even objective analysts attributed AT&T's "success" in this recession to the iPhone. Similarly for Rogers in Canada. So you'd only make sense if you're talking Europe or Asia.

As for renegotiation, who do you think initiated the change? Apple. Who do you think got the double-whammy resulting from the change? AT&T who, through June 2010, is paying Apple a subscription-revenue-share on the original iPhone, and an upfront subsidy on the iPhone 3G. That's why AT&T is announcing this double-whammy impact each quarter. In exchange, it has been rumored that Apple extended the exclusivity period. Does this sound like AT&T is an unhappy partner? Sheesh.
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post #45 of 72
2/21/09 at 8:09am
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

It's called supply AND demand --- you have to look at both sides.

From the carriers' point of view, LG Voyager is a 1/2 assed first attempt copycat that costed significant less in terms of handset subsidies --- that managed to outsell the iphone when it was launched.

Did the subsidized LG Voyager require a two-year data subscription at its launch?
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post #46 of 72
2/21/09 at 8:13am
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Unfortunately their 'tech' advice managed to do severe damage to AAPL recently and this may again, but hopefully not.

They do, momentarily. I'm looking forward to upgrading my iPhone 3G this summer and for Apple to set the bar even higher with more features, better graphics acceleration and faster processor

I enjoy reading this article posted at PC magazine by Reuters that shows pretty much what cell phone manufacturers have to contend with copying the iPhone

Quote:
Originally Posted by PC Magazine

Analysis: Copying the iPhone is No Way to Beat It
By Reuters

BARCELONA (Reuters) - Copying a few pages from the playbook of Apple Inc's iPhone strategy, which brings many of the powers of the Internet to mobile phones, is no way to beat the computer interloper at its game.

But that's exactly what many of the world's biggest handsets makers are trying to do with new copycat phones and services that ape key features of the iPhone.

At Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, the world's biggest annual trade show for the wireless industry, Apple is everywhere and nowhere. The company avoids such events, preferring to unveil products at its own venues.

The handset business will produce more than a billion phones this year, but is suffering a crisis of confidence brought on by sharply changing business models that has only been exaggerated by the global economic slump.

"Imagination is expensive in a year such as this," said Richard Windsor, a technology analyst at the conference who is with Nomura Securities in London.

The giants of the phone industryNokia, Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, LG Electronics Inc, Sony Ericsson and HTC Corpare humbling themselves to copy a company whose phones account for only 1 percent of handsets.

A year ago, phone makers with quick-acting design teams came out with the first touchscreen iPhone look-alikes. This year, they are going further by seeking to duplicate the iPhone's user interface software.

Privately, an executive with a major European telecommunications operator complains: "Everybody is trying to catch the iPhone. They are pushing things out to market that just aren't ready for prime-time."

Analysts say the clones often perform slowly and are less intuitive for users than the iPhone.

Case in point: South Korean phone maker LG Electronics introduced an entry-level smartphone using Microsoft Corp's Windows Mobile operating system and a new iPhone-like look called "3D S-Class User Interface."

The most obvious difference with the iPhone is that LG's GM730 gives users three-dimensional views of its features and applications, which appear like cubes rather than pages, as they do on the iPhone.

But a demonstration of the iPhone wannabe reveals a characteristic flaw familiar to personal computer users. LG's logo and then the Windows brand hang on the screen as 5, 10, 15, eventually 30 seconds pass. The phone is booting up, just like a computer, but unlike many of the faster phones.

(click to read the rest)
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post #47 of 72
2/21/09 at 9:22am
If HTC really sells 80% of Windows Mobile devices, they managed to sell 16 million smartphones last year , significantly more than Apple did.

Their new devices bring bigger, higher resolution screens and improved software, such as people-centric contacts and facebook integration (basically what the Pre is doing) and web 2.0 features like being able to upload video straight to facebook and youtube. Their user interface already looks a lot better than the iPhone (TouchFlo3D 2 looks superb).

So in summary - every HTC smartphone sold is one less Apple will sell. HTC's smartphones sell very well (at least as well as the much hyped iPhone does) and they are therefore significant competitors to the iPhone.

IPhone sales have been flat over the last 2 quarters, and the competitors are circling like vultures. Apple better get to adding video recording to iPhone 3 very soon, and maybe even something revolutionary like cut and paste.
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post #48 of 72
2/21/09 at 9:51am
Quote:
Originally Posted by mark2005 View Post

This is hilarious! Did you not read AT&T's last earnings announcement? Even objective analysts attributed AT&T's "success" in this recession to the iPhone. Similarly for Rogers in Canada. So you'd only make sense if you're talking Europe or Asia.

As for renegotiation, who do you think initiated the change? Apple. Who do you think got the double-whammy resulting from the change? AT&T who, through June 2010, is paying Apple a subscription-revenue-share on the original iPhone, and an upfront subsidy on the iPhone 3G. That's why AT&T is announcing this double-whammy impact each quarter. In exchange, it has been rumored that Apple extended the exclusivity period. Does this sound like AT&T is an unhappy partner? Sheesh.

Did you notice that after both AT&T and Verizon reported their earnings, both companies' share prices dropped a few percentage for a couple of days? But Verizon bounced back like in the third day, AT&T didn't. Look at the actual stock prices, not some PR statement.

Doesn't matter who started the renegotiation --- you laughed at the notion that renegotiation is even possible. In exchange, Apple gave up their initial idiotic business model of full priced simlocked handset with a long contract with revenue sharing.

Since the 3G iphone was launched, Apple's share price dropped 49% and AT&T's share price dropped 29%. So you mean that Apple initiated the renegotiation and then came out behind after the renegotiation. It is more likely that AT&T initiated the renegotiation because AT&T saw that no carriers in the rest of the world were buying revenue sharing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mark2005 View Post

Did the subsidized LG Voyager require a two-year data subscription at its launch?

90%+ of Verizon's customers are postpaid and Verizon has higher data ARPU than AT&T. That's the only thing that matter to Verizon.
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post #49 of 72
2/21/09 at 10:46am
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Did you notice that after both AT&T and Verizon reported their earnings, both companies' share prices dropped a few percentage for a couple of days? But Verizon bounced back like in the third day, AT&T didn't. Look at the actual stock prices, not some PR statement.

Of course I noticed. Both companies have other pieces that affect their prices (Verizon is way ahead of AT&T with FIOS over U-verse.) Companies work on executing long-term strategies that aren't always captured by investors in the short-term - AT&T is taking the short-term double-whammy hit to set it up long-term.

Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Doesn't matter who started the renegotiation --- you laughed at the notion that renegotiation is even possible.

Don't put words into my posts; I never said renegotiation isn't possible. Let me say it more clearly: A default price is already set between Apple and AT&T. If either party wants to renegotiate, they can request but the other party is under no obligation to do make any changes. It would be stupid not to change things if it benefits both parties.

You're the one who said these other phones prices would cause trouble for Apple. I say not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

In exchange, Apple gave up their initial idiotic business model of full priced simlocked handset with a long contract with revenue sharing.

Apple's business model was more reflective of value, especially for handset makers. It's really too bad that consumers would fall for a cheap-upfront handset price and wind up paying more over a long-term. Apple simply gave in and acknowledged this idiotic fallacy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Since the 3G iphone was launched, Apple's share price dropped 49% and AT&T's share price dropped 29%. So you mean that Apple initiated the renegotiation and then came out behind after the renegotiation. It is more likely that AT&T initiated the renegotiation because AT&T saw that no carriers in the rest of the world were buying revenue sharing.

Sure, AT&T initiated the renegotiation so that they would have to face the double-whammy. Yeah, that makes a lot of sense.
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post #50 of 72
2/21/09 at 11:28am
I don't think the Market analyst "get it"
It is not a device that will trump the iPhone, it is the OS.

It's the software dummy!
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post #51 of 72
2/21/09 at 11:43am
apple's gonna have to step up their camera game for those photo lovers out there. 8 MP? that's better than my digital camera.
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post #52 of 72
2/21/09 at 11:53am
Quote:
Originally Posted by surur View Post

If HTC really sells 80% of Windows Mobile devices, they managed to sell 16 million smartphones last year , significantly more than Apple did.

Their new devices bring bigger, higher resolution screens and improved software, such as people-centric contacts and facebook integration (basically what the Pre is doing) and web 2.0 features like being able to upload video straight to facebook and youtube. Their user interface already looks a lot better than the iPhone (TouchFlo3D 2 looks superb).

So in summary - every HTC smartphone sold is one less Apple will sell. HTC's smartphones sell very well (at least as well as the much hyped iPhone does) and they are therefore significant competitors to the iPhone.

IPhone sales have been flat over the last 2 quarters, and the competitors are circling like vultures. Apple better get to adding video recording to iPhone 3 very soon, and maybe even something revolutionary like cut and paste.

anything that I tried that runs windows mobile has felt clunky and unusable to me. until microsoft learns what 'user experience' means, htc's phones will only be able to compete on price to the average consumer. granted - the geek pack, particularly the windows entrenched crowd, will want some features that apple doesn't provide. that is a tiny minority compared to the consumer market. the iphone provides a 'smartphone' to people that don't want to read a 200 page manual to get their email working, and it does that exceptionally well. i think that is apple's strongest advantage, particularly in comparison to windows mobile. it will be interesting to see how the pre does, and what is looks like when it's actually released.

i think the average consumer doesn't go through a feature checklist. i don't think the lack of video recording (for now) is going to detract many...
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post #53 of 72
2/21/09 at 11:58am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jamisen.sc View Post

apple's gonna have to step up their camera game for those photo lovers out there. 8 MP? that's better than my digital camera.

photo lovers? i'd think people that are even remotely serious about taking pictures don't reach for their phone first. yes - the camera could use some improvement, but again... it's the whole user experience that sells iphones, not one single feature. you can always find a phone that does one thing better than the iphone, but on a whole? not so much... not yet - at least IMO.
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post #54 of 72
2/21/09 at 12:10pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by DHKOsta View Post

You keep talking about bringing the SEC into this, but I'm curious to know what authority you think they have over RBC.

This from idannyb in another thread ...

BlackBerry and other mobile platforms. The fund is anchored by capital commitments from RIM, RBC and Thomson Reuters along with participation from some of the countrys most successful mobile wireless and software entrepreneurs and corporations. BBPF will consider all stages of development and is co-managed by RBC Venture Partners and JLA Ventures.

RBC Venture Partners has $250 million under management and is investing out of a $150 million early-stage venture fund specializing in technology for the financial services industry and financial services enabled by technology. We consider investment opportunities throughout North America, often syndicating our investments with other high quality financial investors who will actively participate in the growth and development of the company. Typical initial investments range from $4 million to $6 million and we are active board participants.

RBC Venture Partners advisory board guess who sits on their board?
James (Jim) Balsillie Since 1992, Jim Balsillie has been co-CEO at Research In Motion (RIM) maker of the world reknowned BlackBerry wireless handheld system.

Barbara Stymiest (total compensation C$2,449,629)
RBC Group Head, Strategy, Treasury & Corporate Services
http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/down2-stymiest.html
BOARD OF DIRECTORS MEMBERSHIPS*

2007-Present
Director, Chairman of Audit Committee and Member of Oversight Committee
Research In Motion Ltd.
Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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Been using Apples since 1978 and Macs since 1984
Long on AAPL so biased. Strong advocate for separation of technology and politics on AI.
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post #55 of 72
2/21/09 at 12:25pm
Abramsky says "X." He's a Wall Street tout, little better than the slimeballs that come up to you at the racetrack with their "sure winners." Where does he get this information? Probably right here, at Apple Insider and other Apple rumor sites. He sees this stuff, has an active imagination, and pukes it out as "advice." So freaking what? Haven't we learned, with the market in the tank again, and the names of former Wall Street gurus written on the walls of their jail cells, that their word is not much better than you or me?

There are now a lot of "iPhone killers" out there, just like there were a lot of "iPod killers," remember? Oh, and Microsoft has a Zune coming, you know? Can't stop MS! (Wall Street loves them, they pay dividends. Apple hoards its money so they can weather recessions and buyouts. MS has more money than brains.)

Well, that didn't work, did it? And the smart guys who got people to invest their bucks based on "iPhone killers" are now living in their mother's basement on Long Island.

Could one of these take a lot of market? Could be. Don't know. My money's on Apple. But if this a**hole says all the right code words, people might drop a few hundred bucks on his plate.
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post #56 of 72
2/21/09 at 1:23pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daniel0418 View Post

Actually..... First lets get the facts straight. There are multi touch gestures and UI patents that Palm has had long before the iPhone was available that pertain to the PRE. There are also patents that Apple has that are unique to the iPhone. The difference is very very visible. These 2 phones are nothing a like. 400 MHZ processor iPhone with the 900 MHZ processor PRE... Flash on pre... Flash not on the iPhone... The iPhone had a big head start and 2 years ago when it came out there were no other choices like it or in the same class of phone. A year ago after the launch of the 3G (which is identicle to the first gen but with a crappy GPS and 3G that goes out all the time) they sold it for a lot cheaper with still no competitors. This time around if apple doesn't do something soon all the people who are tired of not having Flash, MMS, Copy & Paste, and a LAG free phone are going to leave the iPhone behind for a phone that makes sense. So what if the iPhone has 5,000 flash lights and 3,000 fat noise apps for sale. This doesn't make the phone usable. Crashing apps, Crashing Safari, and laggy SMS/Contacts/phone app + the lack of features are going to end the reign of this phone if they don't do something soon.

Don't make me laugh, how many of those phones listed have you used? We heard this same crap before the launch of the G1 and Storm.
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post #57 of 72
2/21/09 at 1:24pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

1.1 million Voyagers from mid Nov 2007 to April 11 2008 (the only North American carrier selling LG Voyagers at the time was Verizon Wireless).

http://english.etnews.co.kr/news/det...d=200804110002

AT&T activated 900K in christmas quarter --- so 1/2 of that is 450K. AT&T activated 500K from Jan 1 2008 to third week of May 2008 --- so that's about 350-375K.

Therefore Verizon/LG Voyager outsold AT&T/iphone in this period.

You're still on this Voyager, do they still friggin sell this phone, dude give it up, it's been more than a year since you've been talking about this phone.
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post #58 of 72
2/21/09 at 1:25pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by surur View Post

If HTC really sells 80% of Windows Mobile devices, they managed to sell 16 million smartphones last year , significantly more than Apple did.

Their new devices bring bigger, higher resolution screens and improved software, such as people-centric contacts and facebook integration (basically what the Pre is doing) and web 2.0 features like being able to upload video straight to facebook and youtube. Their user interface already looks a lot better than the iPhone (TouchFlo3D 2 looks superb).

So in summary - every HTC smartphone sold is one less Apple will sell. HTC's smartphones sell very well (at least as well as the much hyped iPhone does) and they are therefore significant competitors to the iPhone.

IPhone sales have been flat over the last 2 quarters, and the competitors are circling like vultures. Apple better get to adding video recording to iPhone 3 very soon, and maybe even something revolutionary like cut and paste.

Four posts with nothing to add but extolling HTC and running the same old "iPhone is just a pretty face" and "fan boys" line.

I never say this about posters, but I wouldn't be that surprised to learn that you are a payed shill.

Why else would someone bother to register on an Apple discussion board when all they have to say is "the iPhone sorta sucks" and "HTC rules"?

In fact, there have been a number of new registers ever since the iPhone hit the market by people who appear to have absolutely nothing to say about Apple beyond "iPhone sucks deal with it fan boys ha ha ha " and it really makes me wonder about astroturfing.

Note that I'm not saying the iPhone is perfect or that there can't be worthy competition-- I'm just very curious about what motivates someone to register on an Apple enthusiast site simply to run the iPhone down at every opportunity.

Shill or crippling emotional disorders, seems like it has to be one or the other.
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post #59 of 72
2/21/09 at 1:59pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mark2005 View Post

Of course I noticed. Both companies have other pieces that affect their prices (Verizon is way ahead of AT&T with FIOS over U-verse.) Companies work on executing long-term strategies that aren't always captured by investors in the short-term - AT&T is taking the short-term double-whammy hit to set it up long-term.

Don't put words into my posts; I never said renegotiation isn't possible. Let me say it more clearly: A default price is already set between Apple and AT&T. If either party wants to renegotiate, they can request but the other party is under no obligation to do make any changes. It would be stupid not to change things if it benefits both parties.

How can you say that Verizon is taking the short term strategies --- when Verizon is the one doing MASSIVE fiber optics network investments ($22 billion in FIOS vs $6 billion in U-verse) and MASSIVE wireless network investments (it's the network, stupid). What AT&T is doing with the iphone --- is cosmetic, short term strategy.

Nobody knows precisely what is in the agreement --- so it would be incorrect to say that a default price has been set for the next iphone. The next iphone could be extremely high end or an iphone nano --- we just don't know. So how would AT&T know the precise price point of the next iphone. For all we know, the agreement may not even have a minimum shippment numbers --- so AT&T can just buy a 100 iphone3's can sit on their ass for the next three years (while Apple can't sell them to another carrier in the US because of the exclusivity).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Swift View Post

Well, that didn't work, did it? And the smart guys who got people to invest their bucks based on "iPhone killers" are now living in their mother's basement on Long Island.

Could one of these take a lot of market? Could be. Don't know. My money's on Apple. But if this a**hole says all the right code words, people might drop a few hundred bucks on his plate.

The issue is not going to be whether RIM or Palm share prices are going skyrocket with the next iphone killer. The issue is that whether the next generation of iphone killers is "good enough" to force Apple to reduce their price margins --- and that affects Apple's share price.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Adjei View Post

You're still on this Voyager, do they still friggin sell this phone, dude give it up, it's been more than a year since you've been talking about this phone.

When the next couple of quarters come out with more financial information, I will be talking about whether the RIM Storm, the Pre,... would be outselling the 3G iphone. As I said a year ago, a "iphone killer" doesn't actually have to beat the real iphone in sales in order to do a lot of damage to Apple's business models. Other carriers will begin to realize that a 1/2 assed copycat is selling decently --- and for the average consumers, "good enough" is really good enough.
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post #60 of 72
2/21/09 at 2:19pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

Four posts with nothing to add but extolling HTC and running the same old "iPhone is just a pretty face" and "fan boys" line.

I never say this about posters, but I wouldn't be that surprised to learn that you are a payed shill.

Why else would someone bother to register on an Apple discussion board when all they have to say is "the iPhone sorta sucks" and "HTC rules"?

In fact, there have been a number of new registers ever since the iPhone hit the market by people who appear to have absolutely nothing to say about Apple beyond "iPhone sucks deal with it fan boys ha ha ha " and it really makes me wonder about astroturfing.

Note that I'm not saying the iPhone is perfect or that there can't be worthy competition-- I'm just very curious about what motivates someone to register on an Apple enthusiast site simply to run the iPhone down at every opportunity.

Shill or crippling emotional disorders, seems like it has to be one or the other.

Some-one needs to bring the facts to the fanboys.

If you want to talk about emotional disorder, look at crazies like iEye.
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post #61 of 72
2/21/09 at 5:00pm
Iphone is streets ahead now in performance and experience so far and have $25 billion to stay ahead. Some so called killers have enough money only for short time before bust. happy with iphone as only upgrade software many times. U go to Nokia and they have confusing 50 different phones in shop. Others have to depend on 3rd party software or 3rd party technology etc and that can lead to problems. With real cash in bank like apple I feel good investing a few hundred in an iphone
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post #62 of 72
2/21/09 at 5:17pm
Fellows good to look behind the vendor before buying a product that you need for long time. Apple is financially very strong with $25b in bank. See Nokia below and investigate others like palm who might not have anything left by end of year.

Nokia Borrows $630 Million For Symbian R&D, Foundation
Friday February 20, 10:37 am ET
By Robert Andrews

Somewhere in the Mobile World Congress melee, Nokia (NYSE: NOK - News) quietly announced that it had secured a 500 million ($629.5 million), five-year loan from European Investment Bank (EIB). The loan is designed to part-finance software R&D Nokia plans to conduct between 2009 and 2011 "to make Symbian-based smartphones more competitive".

now when money run out so does the future of your phone
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post #63 of 72
2/21/09 at 6:21pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post

Monday, May 12th, 2008 - RIM announced a $150 million BlackBerry (NSDQ: RIMM) Partners Fund along with RBC, Thomson Reuters, and several private Canadian investors. Can anything RBC say regarding iPhone be taken seriously by investors? They should at the very least preface anything they say in this regard with "We have a massive financial reason to see iPhone fail". When is the SEC going to investigate these analysts, who clearly have a vested interest in seeing certain stocks move in certain directions?

Just because you disagree with his analysis doesn't mean that he's trying to scuttle the stock. Yes, RBC owns RBC Capital Markets and also owns RBC Venture Partners. As you have pointed out, the latter has partnered with RIM on a $150 million venture capital fund. But to put this in perspective, RBC has over $600 billion in assets.
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post #64 of 72
2/21/09 at 10:44pm
samab, I am in agreement with you that VZW has and has been in the lead in postpaid subscribers, churn rate, network reliability, etc. for a long time. And if the iPhone was on VZW, it would be lights out.

But since AT&T picked up iPhone, it's hung in and even started coming back. By late 2006, Verizon wireless (VZW) had passed and was beginning to pull away from AT&T Wireless. VZW had had several consecutive quarters of 18%+ increases in total wireless revenue. But since iPhone's release in mid 2007, AT&T has tied or beaten VZW in every quarter in terms of percentage increase in total wireless revenue. AT&T actually had a slim lead in the last quarter. and it finally passed VZW in total wireless data revenue.

Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Verizon has higher data ARPU than AT&T. That's the only thing that matter to Verizon.

Maybe.

1. Using overall data ARPU (includes wholesale and retail, postpaid and prepaid) figure, AT&T is closing the gap.
AT&T: 4Q07- $10.01; 4Q08- $13.50 - 35% yoy gain
VZW: 4Q07- $10.84; 4Q08- $13.84 - 28% yoy gain

2. But AT&T also reports its retail postpaid data ARPU at $16.30, which excludes wholesale and prepaid customers; VZW does not report this metric. Since 93% of VZW subscribers are retail postpaid, there is likely at most a .5 variation from the $13.84 figure, or $14.34. (In the two quarters where VZW also reported its retail data ARPU which excluded wholesale but included prepaid customers, the difference between them was .22). For this coveted subset, AT&T has the higher data ARPU.

In addtion, note that in the two quarters following a new iPhone model release, the VZW retail postpaid churn rate moves upward - in 2007, it went from .85 to .96/.94 (11-13% increase) and more troubling for VZW, in 2008, it went from .83 to 1.03/1.05 (24-27% increase). And similarly note that in the two quarters following a new iPhone model release, AT&T has added from 1.17M to 1.693M new postpaid retail subscribers, but otherwise, it averages 800K. Might there be a relationship?

All I'm saying is that AT&T knows what's keeping it in the game, and these emerging iPhone contenders will not significantly affect Apple's business model for the next iPhone.
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post #65 of 72
2/21/09 at 11:36pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Nobody knows precisely what is in the agreement --- so it would be incorrect to say that a default price has been set for the next iphone. The next iphone could be extremely high end or an iphone nano --- we just don't know. So how would AT&T know the precise price point of the next iphone. For all we know, the agreement may not even have a minimum shippment numbers --- so AT&T can just buy a 100 iphone3's can sit on their ass for the next three years (while Apple can't sell them to another carrier in the US because of the exclusivity).

You must think Apple is pretty dumb that it would sign a multi-year exclusive contract and then allow itself to get screwed. You and I might not know, but the next iPhone designs were pretty much locked in as of late last summer - don't you think Apple would've discussed possibilities with a couple of AT&T execs? (For comparison, the original iPhone contract was signed by the end of 2006 for release in June 2007. Even Palm worked out its exclusive contract with Sprint by early Jan 2009 for its Pre release in 1H09.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

The issue is that whether the next generation of iphone killers is "good enough" to force Apple to reduce their price margins ---

Yes, that is the issue we're talking about. And I've been giving you reasons why it's a non-issue.

Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

When the next couple of quarters come out with more financial information, I will be talking about whether the RIM Storm, the Pre,... would be outselling the 3G iphone. As I said a year ago, a "iphone killer" doesn't actually have to beat the real iphone in sales in order to do a lot of damage to Apple's business models. Other carriers will begin to realize that a 1/2 assed copycat is selling decently --- and for the average consumers, "good enough" is really good enough.

iPhone gets an out-sized subsidy from AT&T because it provides AT&T with an extra $30+ per month revenue stream for two years. So any fair comparison must be with phones that require the extra data plan.

The LG Voyager, that you brought up previously, started out listed at $299 but after multiple decreases in price, sells today for $79 (updated Voyager Titanium) without ensuring the carrier gets additional revenue. So doesn't affect iPhone pricing.

The RIM Storm does ensure the carrier gets $30/month, and it started out at $299 but in three months, has already come down in price to $99. Not sure who is eating the $200; retailer, VZW, or RIM? At this rate, doesn't look like it will impact iPhone pricing.

The Palm Pre is planned for 1H09 so it may take more than a couple of quarters before there's anything to say. Hear from you again in October - by then the next iPhone will be out as well.
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post #66 of 72
2/22/09 at 2:51am
Quote:
Originally Posted by surur View Post

Some-one needs to bring the facts to the fanboys.

If you want to talk about emotional disorder, look at crazies like iEye.

Is that the same HTC that SonyEricsson dumped after they made the Experia then took the design and released the Touch HD.

At least Gigabyte and Acer are stepping in to give them some competition on their own ground.

"The cobbler's children have no shoes", is a saying that applies a lot to companies who provide products and services. -KDarling on Google Search.

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"The cobbler's children have no shoes", is a saying that applies a lot to companies who provide products and services. -KDarling on Google Search.

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post #67 of 72
2/22/09 at 3:06am
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

Is that the same HTC that SonyEricsson dumped after they made the Experia then took the design and released the Touch HD.

At least Gigabyte and Acer are stepping in to give them some competition on their own ground.

Its HTC yes, but your view of events are pretty strange.

But yes, HTC makes the SE Xperia. They also make the Palm Pre and the T-Mobile G1.
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post #68 of 72
2/22/09 at 9:53am
Quote:
Originally Posted by mark2005 View Post

All I'm saying is that AT&T knows what's keeping it in the game, and these emerging iPhone contenders will not significantly affect Apple's business model for the next iPhone.

All I am saying is that carriers around the world have seen that even though Verizon does not have the iphone on their line-ups --- it is not the end of the world for Verizon.

Do you think that carriers in India will fight for the right to sell the next iphone (many iphone deals around the world are much shorter term than AT&T's 5 year term) --- when Vodafone India sells only 10000 iphones this time around?

IMHO, this GREATLY affects Apple's business model because they can no longer pit one carrier against another and extract a king's ransom for the right to sell the iphone exclusively.
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post #69 of 72
2/22/09 at 12:25pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

All I am saying is that carriers around the world have seen that even though Verizon does not have the iphone on their line-ups --- it is not the end of the world for Verizon.

Apple said they would sell 1% of all cell phones in 2008 (and they did). So why would anyone, other than you, expect iPhone on AT&T to be the end of the world for Verizon?

You set up a strawman and knock it down. Silly.
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post #70 of 72
2/22/09 at 1:10pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by surur View Post

Its HTC yes, but your view of events are pretty strange.

But yes, HTC makes the SE Xperia. They also make the Palm Pre and the T-Mobile G1.

Don't you mean the HTC Dream?

History repeats.

I wonder what they'll call their version of the Pre?

"The cobbler's children have no shoes", is a saying that applies a lot to companies who provide products and services. -KDarling on Google Search.

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"The cobbler's children have no shoes", is a saying that applies a lot to companies who provide products and services. -KDarling on Google Search.

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post #71 of 72
2/22/09 at 9:39pm
Where is the Toshiba TG01? Looks like a viable competitor, but it isn't on the list.
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post #72 of 72
2/23/09 at 9:24am
Quote:
Originally Posted by mark2005 View Post

Apple said they would sell 1% of all cell phones in 2008 (and they did). So why would anyone, other than you, expect iPhone on AT&T to be the end of the world for Verizon?

You set up a strawman and knock it down. Silly.

1% of the world's cell phone means you need something like 5% in the first world. And 5% in the first world means 1/4 of that first world's smartphone market share. And that 1/4 market share means 30-40% of the data APRU.
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