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Gartner predicts sharpest decline PC sales ever

post #1 of 34
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Worldwide PC shipments will tumble by the largest percentage ever recorded in history this year, with desktops hit especially hard as mini-notebooks boost growth for mobile PCs, according to Gartner.

PC shipments are predicted to total 257 million units this year, which would represent an 11.9 percent decline from 2008, the firm said in a report released Monday morning. That would erase the previous worst decline in 2001 when shipments fell 3.2 percent.

"The PC industry is facing extraordinary conditions as the global economy continues to weaken, users stretch PC lifetimes and PC suppliers grow increasingly cautious," said Gartner research director George Shiffler. "Slower GDP growth will generally weaken demand and slow new penetration, lengthening PC lifetimes will reduce replacements, and supplier caution will keep inventories at historic lows until confidence in a recovery eventually firms."

The research firm believes desktops will decline a staggering 31.9 percent from 2008 while mobile PCs will see help from growth in the mini-notebooks ("netbooks") sector. However, the average price for a netbook is expected to reach $399 even as screen sizes increase, down from a 2008 average of $450, meaning it won't be enough to stem the market's decline. Netbooks will make up a small 8 percent of total PC shipments.

Mature markets are currently the strongest market for the small, low-powered machines, but even emerging markets may have interest as prices keep falling. Netbooks excluded, laptops in general will grow just 2.7 percent, according to the report.

What this will mean for Apple is not yet known, but the Cupertino-based company did enjoy Mac sales growth last quarter despite a contracting overall market.

Apple, starting with chief executive Steve Jobs, has foreseen the decline of desktops for some time, and a shift that firmly took hold around 2005 has led to more notebook sales each quarter than desktops for the Mac maker.

While Gartner's predictions may not inspire confidence, Apple's strength in portables is seen as a positive for its Mac business, which Wall Street analysts have predicted will essentially tread water in 2009. Needham's Charlie Wolf has said Mac shipments will be "flat" this year, while the Royal Bank of Canada's Mike Abramsky offered the opposing view: "Beyond an ongoing transition from desktops to laptops, deteriorating consumer spending in our view materially contributed to slowing Desktop sales."

Finally, Apple executives have repeatedly denied any interest in competing for netbook sales.

"We're watching that space," said acting chief executive Tim Cook, "but right now from our point of view, the products in there are principally based on hardware that's much less powerful than we think customers want, software technology that is not good, cramped keyboards, small displays."

"We've got some ideas here, but right now we think the products are inferior and will not provide an experience to customers they're happy with," he said.
post #2 of 34
$399-$450? That's usually the price of an iPod! Somewhow I don't envision Apple putting out a netbook or anything for that matter in that price range in a ultra compact size.
People obviously are liking them; they are selling.
Oh how I still wish Apple came out with an 11" Pro laptop instead of the MacBook Air.
post #3 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

PC shipments are predicted to total 257 million units this year, which would represent an 11.9 percent decline from 2008, the firm said in a report released Monday morning. That would erase the previous worst decline in 2001 when shipments fell 3.2 percent.

Well, I know I should let it go, but it wont "erase" the 2001 decline. it might "eclipse" it or "replace" it as the new worst.

Sorry, I know semantics posts can be insufferable...
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post #4 of 34
Well, I guess it's good that Windows 7 will be so freaking amazing that people will be throwing their PC's out the window and trampling over each other in a hysterical frenzy at Best Buy's doors to get a new machine that might be capable of running it.

That should boost sales quite a bit i'd suspect.
post #5 of 34
Not to be rude or anything but with your economy not doing well, it does not require a "study" by "researchers" to tell the public that demand for new PCs are declining.
post #6 of 34
I'll admit, an 8" Acer netbook with 8GB SSD and 1GB RAM running Ubuntu Linux for $255 is tempting.
post #7 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nde View Post

Not to be rude or anything but with your economy not doing well, it does not require a "study" by "researchers" to tell the public that demand for new PCs are declining.

I know - right? It's obviously a slooow day in the news except that the stock market keeps tanking.
post #8 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nde View Post

Not to be rude or anything but with your economy not doing well, it does not require a "study" by "researchers" to tell the public that demand for new PCs are declining.

No, but it requires a study to figure out how much it is declining, and how much that decline is bound to hurt Apple.
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post #9 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nde View Post

Not to be rude or anything but with your economy not doing well, it does not require a "study" by "researchers" to tell the public that demand for new PCs are declining.

Unfortunately, you under rate the capability of our countries "public" and their ability to understand, if not told by "studies" done by "researchers"! \

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post #10 of 34
Netbooks are too large to fit in your pocket, they'll have to go in a backpack or a briefcase... might as well buy a laptop.
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post #11 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by bloggerblog View Post

Netbooks are too large to fit in your pocket, they'll have to go in a backpack or a briefcase... might as well buy a laptop.

Except that netbooks weigh 2 lbs. and less.
post #12 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rot'nApple View Post

Unfortunately, you under rate the capability of our countries "public" and their ability to understand, if not told by "studies" done by "researchers"! \

Sound like a lot of "pork" to me.
post #13 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by rain View Post

Well, I guess it's good that Windows 7 will be so freaking amazing that people will be throwing their PC's out the window and trampling over each other in a hysterical frenzy at Best Buy's doors to get a new machine that might be capable of running it.

such as a mac?
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post #14 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

No, but it requires a study to figure out how much it is declining, and how much that decline is bound to hurt Apple.

Except that it's a prediction and didn't state any affects on Apple.
Cum'on - it's a worldwide economic recession on the brink of a depression- you need a study to figure out that there's going to be a significant decline in just about everything?
post #15 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Except that it's a prediction and didn't state any affects on Apple.
Cum'on - it's a worldwide economic recession on the brink of a depression- you need a study to figure out that there's going to be a significant decline in just about everything?

Investors need to know how significant that decline is going to be. There is going to be a significant decline in car sales, for example - but investors need to know how likely that decline is going to result in bankruptcy for GM, and for that they need to get pretty accurate predictions on how bad it will be.

Just because you don't care about the differences between 14% and 16% decline does not mean that the study was useless to everyone.
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post #16 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by bloggerblog View Post

Netbooks are too large to fit in your pocket, they'll have to go in a backpack or a briefcase... might as well buy a laptop.

When I was younger, I wore pants with large pockets on the sides of my legs - maybe those will become popular again (not fashionable, since they are worn by nerds mostly, but popular).
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post #17 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by bloggerblog View Post

Netbooks are too large to fit in your pocket, they'll have to go in a backpack or a briefcase... might as well buy a laptop.

They do however, fit into a portable DVD player case which is MUCH smaller than a laptop case. My fiance carries her netbook comfortably in her purse. Too big for pants (get an iPod touch then!) but definitely small enough for other things people may carry with them at times. That and its a lot cheaper than a full fledged laptop. Wonder why these machines are eroding away at the other markets?
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post #18 of 34
Of course PC sales are down cause everyone is buying macs. In the pub next door to me I saw 2 drunks and a girl all using MacBooks while chatting and drinking. When did it become cool to use a laptop in a pub???
post #19 of 34
Shouldn't this headline be delivered by a gum-snapping Valley Girl?

"Gartner predicts sharpest decline in PC sales... EVAR!"

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post #20 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiekiduk View Post

Of course PC sales are down cause everyone is buying macs. In the pub next door to me I saw 2 drunks and a girl all using MacBooks while chatting and drinking. When did it become cool to use a laptop in a pub???

One question... were the 'drunks' male or female?

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post #21 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Shouldn't this headline be delivered by a gum-snapping Valley Girl?

"Gartner predicts sharpest decline in PC sales... EVAR!"

post #22 of 34
Does it not occur to all these analysts that the iPod Touch and iPhone are Apple's Netbook?

One day they may increase the screen size to a larger format, but at the moment it is fine for checking email, surfing the web, playing games and listening to music.

Why buy a Netbook if you already have an iPhone?
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post #23 of 34
This doesn't have anything to do with how slowly Intel seems to be bringing new, improved chips to market?
post #24 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Shouldn't this headline be delivered by a gum-snapping Valley Girl?

"Gartner predicts sharpest decline in PC sales... EVAR!"


You made my day! Hilarious.
post #25 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwirob View Post

Does it not occur to all these analysts that the iPod Touch and iPhone are Apple's Netbook?

One day they may increase the screen size to a larger format, but at the moment it is fine for checking email, surfing the web, playing games and listening to music.

Why buy a Netbook if you already have an iPhone?

because doing a list of what an iPhone CAN do in comparison to what a netbook can do is much easier than doing it the other way round.

I wish this iPhone is a netbook rubbish would just die. They don't compare or compete. One is useful and great value the other is a toy.
post #26 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiekiduk View Post

Of course PC sales are down cause everyone is buying macs. In the pub next door to me I saw 2 drunks and a girl all using MacBooks while chatting and drinking. When did it become cool to use a laptop in a pub???

but thats just it... they aren't!!!

if 257 million pc units are to be sold then 12-13 million of them will be Macs (based on previous results and being generous)

13/257 = 5.06%

I still don't see how Apple are even relevant in the *bigger picture.*

post #27 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwirob View Post

Does it not occur to all these analysts that the iPod Touch and iPhone are Apple's Netbook?

One day they may increase the screen size to a larger format, but at the moment it is fine for checking email, surfing the web, playing games and listening to music.

Why buy a Netbook if you already have an iPhone?

Nine inch screen, more storage and much faster for typing an email. As much as I love my iphone I much prefer surfing the web on my netbook especially when visiting pages with a ton of embedded links that my fat fingers keep triggering on the iphone. That just irritates the hell out of me. Honestly my mini9 hacintosh is so small and light it goes almost everywhere with me.
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post #28 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwirob View Post

Does it not occur to all these analysts that the iPod Touch and iPhone are Apple's Netbook?

One day they may increase the screen size to a larger format, but at the moment it is fine for checking email, surfing the web, playing games and listening to music.

Why buy a Netbook if you already have an iPhone?

Okay first of all you can't do anything but play and pay for the games an apps provided for you. Plus we are talking about a 400 mhz locked down system
With close to no ram. An iPhone spent replace a netbook by any stretch of the imagination. There is no key oars safari crashes... U can't tab browse without reloading the page everytime u go back... U can't I stall anything u want and the iPhone lags sooooooo much. Anyway PC sales decline because of the economy and who wants to buy a vista of
Right now when windows 7 is right around the corner?
post #29 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bageljoey View Post

Well, I know I should let it go, but it wont "erase" the 2001 decline. it might "eclipse" it or "replace" it as the new worst.

Sorry, I know semantics posts can be insufferable...

I always applaud those intrepid individuals that take the time to improve the semantics and grammar of those posting in this forum. God knows, lately the Queen's English has been reduced to a series of clicks, grunts, and emoticons, and it's refreshing to see some emphasis put back into proper use of language when making a point.
post #30 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Archipellago View Post

One is useful and great value the other is a toy.

One is a poster with a valid point. The other is a troll.
post #31 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nde View Post

Not to be rude or anything but with your economy not doing well, it does not require a "study" by "researchers" to tell the public that demand for new PCs are declining.

A "study" by "researchers" is precisely what is required to make the claim that PC demand is declining.

You cannot claim that PC sales are declining without looking at sales data. Looking at the data is the "study", and those who look at it and report the findings are the "researchers".

What the problem is with that, I can't imagine. \
post #32 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigdaddyp View Post

Nine inch screen, more storage and much faster for typing an email. As much as I love my iphone I much prefer surfing the web on my netbook especially when visiting pages with a ton of embedded links that my fat fingers keep triggering on the iphone. That just irritates the hell out of me. Honestly my mini9 hacintosh is so small and light it goes almost everywhere with me.

If a netbook could play xvid without dropping frames I might buy one, but I tried it on a friends and it can't. Thats the only thing I miss on my iPhone, I just can't be bothered waiting 30 mins to encode an xvid to h264 all the time. If there is anything else I can't do I just VNC using the Jaadu app to my home iMac and that works great over 3G wherever I am.
post #33 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by indiekiduk View Post

If a netbook could play xvid without dropping frames I might buy one, but I tried it on a friends and it can't. Thats the only thing I miss on my iPhone, I just can't be bothered waiting 30 mins to encode an xvid to h264 all the time. If there is anything else I can't do I just VNC using the Jaadu app to my home iMac and that works great over 3G wherever I am.

On my particular setup I can generally play all standard video perfectly. The only time at standard def that I notice any dropped frames is when I am streaming video from hulu. It is much more hit and miss on 720p video. I do not recall having problems playing xvid. Of course I am old (30 ish) and may be missremembering........hey I can see Florida from my house.
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post #34 of 34
Quote:
Originally Posted by piot View Post

One is a poster with a valid point. The other is a troll.


well done for spectacularly avoiding the argument..
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