Originally Posted by 4metta
I still wouldn't want to spend money on yet another movie player and physical copies that will also be replaced by whatever new tech comes out after this. My old faves are upconverted beautifully on my Xbox 360 and anything else out there will be upconverted from regular dvd format too.
Also, I rarely watch a movie more than once. I have been renting HD movies off of Xbox Live and have been waiting for Apple to offer the same without Apple TV. I am one happy camper now having all the movie options from both of them!!
Blu-ray will not be replaced for a very, very, very long time and your post gives the reason why. You said, "My old faves are upconverted beautifully on my Xbox 360." Exactly. Studios have found that getting people to upgrade from DVD, especially upconverting DVD, to high def, be it Blu-Ray or HD-DVD, has been a major problem. That's because DVD upconverted is good enough for the average consumer. So if that's the case, good luck convincing those same consumers that they need something better than Blu-Ray.
I have a 720P XBR LCD that is so good that I really am quite happy to be using it for the next decade with little concern over what's coming next. I can see the difference between upconverted DVD and HD-DVD, which is pretty much the same as Blu-Ray. But I can also see that playing DVDs through my xbox 360 via HDMI or my HD-DVD player, also via HDMI, produces a very good picture, one that I can understand many people being happy with.
I have to say, though, that you really owe it to yourself to feed a proper HD signal to a properly calibrated TV (assuming you have a good, high quality set), even if only to treat yourself from time to time. It really is quite something to watch HD content without all the annoying flaws that are imposed on such a signal when it is compressed for broadcasting.
I have a decent library of HD-DVDs they were selling them for $5 a piece in Canada at Wal-Mart after the format war ended - so my motivation to go out and invest in Blu-Ray is very weak at this time. But down the road, I will add Blu-Ray to the mix.
On top of it providing a calibre of picture that is positively breathtaking, I don't share your fear that the studios are already planning another technology to take its place. Blu-Ray will be the gold standard for at least the next 10 years and maybe even beyond that.
When Apple does offer HD here in Canada, I'm going to try it out, just for fun but I don't see myself paying to watch movies that way unless the difference in quality between that and HD cable is such that it's worth the extra cost. I suspect, though, that there will be trade-offs that will cause me to not regard Apple's service as a proper substitute for physical media like Blu-Ray. Apple would have to bring in a subscription model competitive with cable to earn my business on a regular basis. Even if Apple wanted to charge a little more, I could live with that if it offered access to a significant library of titles.
By the way, I don't have Apple TV. I am using my XBR as a monitor for my Mac mini in addition to having cable, the xbox and HD-DVD player attached to it. So a subscription model working independent of Apple TV is something I could take advantage of. I can't be the only person in that position. Renting isn't viable for me, because the cost would be such that I could only rent about two movies a month for what my movie network subcription costs. If Apple doesn't offer a better deal than that, I'm not going to be turning to Apple as my main source of recent movie releases. Way too expensive compared to cable and right now HD isn't even an option.