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Barclays says Apple has more than doubled iPhone production

post #1 of 62
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Analysts for Barclay's Capital are reporting Monday that their contacts in the Far East tell them that Apple has doubled its iPhone production for the current quarter, suggesting the company has baked high expectations into the launch of new models that will reportedly arrive in June.

More specifically, analyst Ben Reitzes said his sources indicate Apple is readying a new iPhone that will ship in June with an upgraded camera that could deliver big improvements to the iPhone experiences, including both still and video capabilities "with possibly another camera on the front for video chat."

He elaborated by saying Apple could offer a "few iPhone models" with these features and various memory capacities as "high-end" video iPhones that would rival the functionality of Pure Digital's "Flip" digital camcorder line. At the same time, a model similar to the current iPhone 3G without some of the high-end features would be sold at lower prices ($100-$150) with different data plans in order to extend the touch-screen handset to more geographies and to lower income users, according to the report.

Reitzes is likely basing his dual model assumptions, in part, on discoveries within unreleased iPhone code that point to two new and architecturally distinct iPhone-branded devices that are far enough along in their respective development cycles to demand support within the iPhone Software 3.0 update due this summer.

He's also the second analyst in as many weeks to put out a call indicating that iPhone build volumes for the current quarter are up two-fold thanks to orders for multiple new models that would be ready for consumer purchase by the end of June.

Last week, Lazard Capital Markets semiconductors analyst Daniel Amir made similar claims, saying production was due to jump from around 3.5 - 4.0 million units during the March quarter to as many as 8 million units during the June to coincide with the introduction of two new models.

Amir said the high-end version would have video capability, a better camera and 32GB of storage while the low-end version would include less storage, no video functions, and possibly lack Wi-Fi -- a move which could potentially cater to the demands of Chinese wireless carriers.

Reitzes, who also expects Apple to introduce a new ultra-portable device to cater to the netbook market later in the year, raised his pro forma estimates for the Cupertino-based significantly given his view that the company can deliver a robust new product cycle for iPhones in '09 supporting about $10 per share in annualized free cash flow. He also bumped his price target on Apple shares to $143 from $113 while maintaining an overweight rating on the stock.
post #2 of 62
hope this is a good release...seems like it so far, but what I have seen is one-sided..havnt heard anything from skeptics...
post #3 of 62
I am glad Barclays got their word in before RBC come out with some load of distorted information designed to hurt AAPL.
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post #4 of 62
iSight on iPhone! The world is ready Apple!
post #5 of 62
why they all are warming all lemmings all over the world so carefully... OK, new iPhones might come in June or they might not... So, what?

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post #6 of 62
Don't they need 6-8 weeks for FCC approval? How much manufacturing do they do before they get approval? Other markets? Is the CE mark easier to get (not type-tested) than FCC? We should be seeing an announcement very soon if there is a June launch.
post #7 of 62
Two (or more) models aside, a doubling of manufacturing orders could simply point to a potential deal between Apple and one of the chinese carriers. Finally gaining access to either of those markets would probably require twice as many units to fulfill demand.
post #8 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

...suggesting the company has baked high expectations into launch of new models...

Babelfish?
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post #9 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Don't they need 6-8 weeks for FCC approval? How much manufacturing do they do before they get approval? Other markets? Is the CE mark easier to get (not type-tested) than FCC? We should be seeing an announcement very soon if there is a June launch.

Any FCC submission would have happened by now and approval probably have been given by now, if we follow the last 2 iPhones. we know that the FCC doesn't announce submissions and will delay the posting of an approval until after a product launch.
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post #10 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by floccus View Post

Two (or more) models aside, a doubling of manufacturing orders could simply point to a potential deal between Apple and one of the chinese carriers. Finally gaining access to either of those markets would probably require twice as many units to fulfill demand.

A wise statement.

Although, many people in the states are anxiously waiting for a lower buy in cost for the iPhone experience. It's still ATT though.
post #11 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Is the CE mark easier to get (not type-tested) than FCC?

The CE mark is only a mandatory declaration by the manufacturer that a product is in line with EU safety requirements there is no external testing involved whatsoever. You can print that mark on anything. The CE sign is not the equivalent of the FCC mark, as there is no equivalent to the FCC in Europe. There are the ERG (European Regulators Group) whose regulations are rarely binding in the member countries and national regulators and test standards.
post #12 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

and possibly lack Wi-Fi a move which could potentially cater to the demands of Chinese wireless carriers.

Dont most carriers want phones to have wifi to lessen the burden on their networks?
post #13 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Don't they need 6-8 weeks for FCC approval? How much manufacturing do they do before they get approval? Other markets? Is the CE mark easier to get (not type-tested) than FCC? We should be seeing an announcement very soon if there is a June launch.

They can do what they did last year with the 3G iPhone. The can ask the FCC to keep the filling confidential until a certain date. Last year Apple announced the iPhone 3G the same day the FCC made the filling public.
post #14 of 62
Strategically, this makes a ton of sense (the segmentation of high end/low end). Why? There are plenty of folks that only need a subset of the functionality that Apple is offering for their particular sweet spot, probably want a smaller physical footprint and don't want or can't pay for all of the extras -- especially in certain non-US geographies (China, India come to mind).

Perhaps this goes back to Apple's warning last year about a new product release with lower margins?

The real challenge for Apple will be matrixing all of this stuff from an iPhone OS 3.0 platform perspective, as if I am a developer, I don't want too much brain damage creating variants A, B and C of my app so that I can maximize reach to all iPhone/iPod touch owner.

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post #15 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by SS3 GokouX View Post

Dont most carriers want phones to have wifi to lessen the burden on their networks?

That depends. On iPhone it surely benefits AT&T as the data plan is unlimited and required, so even allowing free WiFI from their hotspots benefits them. Other phones plans, even from AT&T, aren't set up to require a data plan so including WiFi may be enough to keep you from paying those premium rates for a larger dataplan, or any dataplan at all.
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post #16 of 62
It could also be the fact that there are a lot more retailers carrying the iPhone than the previous two launches: namely wal-mart and best buy (two of the biggest retailers worldwide). Apple needs to be able to supply these retailers with the new iPhone as well. I find it hard to believe they would go back to just launching the 3.0 model at AT&T & Apple Stores.
post #17 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

That depends. On iPhone it surely benefits AT&T as the data plan is unlimited and required, so even allowing free WiFI from their hotspots benefits them. Other phones plans, even from AT&T, aren't set up to require a data plan so including WiFi may be enough to keep you from paying those premium rates for a larger dataplan, or any dataplan at all.

Ah, good call. America ≠ the rest of the world. Though I wonder what percentage of iPhones are sold in various continents.
post #18 of 62
is there an article out there that is pretty much a list of all the new features that the iPhone will have/might have?

i knew a few things here and there, but i really dont have the time to go through every little article on the internet. i know its not been officially announced, so really its all just speculation. however im planning to buy one, hopefully, release day.

well under 2 conditions. 1. the prices dont increase for monthly service (TxT messaging should be included with data plan... but im not counting on that) 2. price of the handheld WITHOUT a new contract is not $600+. the tech is getting old (even if its still brilliant) you know it does not cost them a lot to produce it anymore...
post #19 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by SmilinGoat View Post

is there an article out there that is pretty much a list of all the new features that the iPhone will have/might have?.

No, all we know are the official SW announcements and SDK changes that will open up many doors. Everythign else is just speculation. Faster and newer ARM CPU, much better GPU, more integration of chips, perhaps PA Semi tech involved (finally), better camera, double the resolution display and more RAM (hopefully), faster HSDPA and inclusion of HSUPA, and 802.11n

Quote:
2. price of the handheld WITHOUT a new contract is not $600+. the tech is getting old (even if its still brilliant) you know it does not cost them a lot to produce it anymore...

I see no reason to expect Apple to use the same HW as they did for the last two builds. Remember that Apple had no cellphone for sale less than 2 years ago and that there was no competition for touchscreen media-phones like there will be emerging this year. Apple still has some things that others can't match, like capacitance multitouch screens and the iPhone/Mac ecosystem but the competition will be a lot more fierce.
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post #20 of 62
The problem with this kind of "analysis" is that it is informed by no more information than the average rumor site, and sets up exactly the kind of expectations that gets Apple knocked around after every product release.

So what if Apple simply brings out a new phone at the current price points, with memory bumps, a slightly more powerful processor and the 3.0 OS, including some as yet unrevealed UI enhancements?

We'll have to hear about how Apple fucked us all over by "failing" to deliver on some kind of video wonder thing, how they're really "falling behind" and how Apple is doomed because they no longer know how to "innovate" or "lead." Stock prices will tumble, Pre and Android fans will smirk and chortle, and the tech press will run endless stories wondering "what's wrong with Apple."

All because of speculation and rumor. We've already heard an explicit description about how easy it is to manipulate Apple stock prices, simply by setting expectations unreasonably high so that what they actually do is forever seen as "disappointing."

If Apple releases a phone that rivals the Flip for video, that'll be great. But I certainly am not going to lose my shit if they don't, because the guy that says they might doesn't know anything we don't.

And guess what? A memory bumped phone with a more powerful CPU and what we've already been shown of the new OS will be a kick-ass phone, and sell really well. It's only compared to imaginary phones that such releases ever seem disappointing.
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post #21 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I see no reason to expect Apple to use the same HW as they did for the last two builds. Remember that Apple had no cellphone for sale less than 2 years ago and that there was no competition for touchscreen media-phones like there will be emerging this year. Apple still has some things that others can't match, like capacitance multitouch screens and the iPhone/Mac ecosystem but the competition will be a lot more fierce.

HW?

anyway, yeah, you are right about the competition gearing out, with several android phones and a handful of other touch screen phones... i just dont know if any of them will be able to get the attention the iPhone gets, which *could* mean that apple wont feel a threat from them.

either way i hope that the network charges are lower (i know this is up to ATT) because my bill is constantly over $100, with the the lowest minute plan available. its just nickels/dimes past that.

im surprised to see rumors of upgraded cpu/gpu, this isnt supposed to be a model that handles new/advanced apps is it?

im mostly just excited for turn by turn GPS, 32GB, and picture messages... everything else is just icing.
post #22 of 62
Maybe they are ramping up, because they know something WE don't about China?

Skip
post #23 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by SmilinGoat View Post

HW?

[...]

im mostly just excited for turn by turn GPS, 32GB, and picture messages... everything else is just icing.

HW = Hardware

You do know that turn-by-turn GPS will be an additional cost from a 3rd-party developer and that the maps will have to be loaded into the device because Google doesn't allow for turn-by-turn with their licensing.
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post #24 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Apple still has some things that others can't match, like capacitance multitouch screens and the iPhone/Mac ecosystem but the competition will be a lot more fierce.

G1 has capacitive screen. LG is baking phones with capacitive screens. Both RIM and Nokia have already what may be called ecosystems.

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post #25 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

HW = Hardware

You do know that turn-by-turn GPS will be an additional cost from a 3rd-party developer and that the maps will have to be loaded into the device because Google doesn't allow for turn-by-turn with their licensing.

yeah, i think i heard it would be something like $25 per half of the united states... well worth it imo. and if i had a 32gb, i wouldnt worry too terribly much about the space.

HW makes sense, i just for the life of me could not read over it without saying "homework" in my head. which is obviously wrong...
post #26 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaarrrgggh View Post

Don't they need 6-8 weeks for FCC approval? How much manufacturing do they do before they get approval? Other markets? Is the CE mark easier to get (not type-tested) than FCC? We should be seeing an announcement very soon if there is a June launch.

FCC approval can be done in secret.

Announcement is expected on June 8, the first day of Apple's Worldwide Developer's Conference (WWDC). Based on previous experience, it could be available for sale in the US (and possibly worldwide) on June 19, 26, or July 10.
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post #27 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by NPrtmn4evr View Post

It could also be the fact that there are a lot more retailers carrying the iPhone than the previous two launches: namely wal-mart and best buy (two of the biggest retailers worldwide). Apple needs to be able to supply these retailers with the new iPhone as well. I find it hard to believe they would go back to just launching the 3.0 model at AT&T & Apple Stores.

Well said. Apple's points of sale for the iPhone are much wider than they were just a year ago. Add on top of that new markets, like an impending China release, and it comes as no surprise why they would be ramping up production by 2x. Even if Apple isn't going to be offering different "tiers" of the iPhone, 2x production for a single model would not be a stretch of the imagination given the iPhone's expanded reach.
post #28 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by addabox View Post

And guess what? A memory bumped phone with a more powerful CPU and what we've already been shown of the new OS will be a kick-ass phone, and sell really well. It's only compared to imaginary phones that such releases ever seem disappointing.

i agree with you. but there are some things that can be dissapointing no matter how awesome the phone is. and mostly it comes down to the price (like stated above, it wont cost as much to build today what it cost 2 years ago, so drop the price, including the no contract price) the rest of the stuff that could actually disappoint me is all on the shoulders of ATT. for instance not including TxT messaging with a data plan... considering how TINY the data numbers are for TxT messaging... then it makes a tolerable $80 bill after taxes into a $100+ bill... that is getting harder and harder to swallow.
post #29 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by SmilinGoat View Post

HW makes sense, i just for the life of me could not read over it without saying "homework" in my head. which is obviously wrong...

Haha, I did the same exact thing, although its been a couple of years since such a thing has been relevant to me, for better or for worse.
post #30 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by iReality85 View Post

Haha, I did the same exact thing, although its been a couple of years since such a thing has been relevant to me, for better or for worse.

yeah, its only been 6 months here... i keep feeling like i have some kind of "project" i should be working on...
post #31 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by ncee View Post

Maybe they are ramping up, because they know something WE don't about China?

Skip

Supposedly, the deal has already been inked, with phones selling there from China Unicom.

While it isn't "official" yet. The company has info about them on its web site, and even had an Ad from its Shanghai branch.

We don't know if that's true yet, but it could be.

They have about 120 million subscribers.

There are estimated to be over 500,000 iPhones in China now.
post #32 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by SmilinGoat View Post

i agree with you. but there are some things that can be dissapointing no matter how awesome the phone is. and mostly it comes down to the price (like stated above, it wont cost as much to build today what it cost 2 years ago, so drop the price, including the no contract price) the rest of the stuff that could actually disappoint me is all on the shoulders of ATT. for instance not including TxT messaging with a data plan... considering how TINY the data numbers are for TxT messaging... then it makes a tolerable $80 bill after taxes into a $100+ bill... that is getting harder and harder to swallow.

How much texting do you do?

Why didn't you just go and get a plan for that? It starts at $5 a month.

We have three iPhones on the family plan. Unlimited texting for all three phones is $30 a month.

Unlimited for one would be $20.
post #33 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

How much texting do you do?

Why didn't you just go and get a plan for that? It starts at $5 a month.

We have three iPhones on the family plan. Unlimited texting for all three phones is $30 a month.

Unlimited for one would be $20.

yeah, after taxes and data and all the required stuff, with the 450 min plan, it comes to just over $80 a month (with no txting)... now i add the $20 txting, as its easier to get a hold of a lot of people who dont take phone calls all the time, or simply cant answer their phone often... and vice versa when someone is trying to contact me.

with my group of friends, it comes to something like 2500 txts a month some times. personally i dont send that many, however i do get people sending to me quite often. it all comes together to be over $100, which is steep for a cell phone, i keep it because of all the features that come with the device itself, but it could stand to be quite a bit cheaper month to month.
post #34 of 62
What a big step backwards to remove Wi-Fi! Don't do it Apple.
post #35 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by SmilinGoat View Post

i agree with you. but there are some things that can be dissapointing no matter how awesome the phone is. and mostly it comes down to the price (like stated above, it wont cost as much to build today what it cost 2 years ago, so drop the price, including the no contract price) the rest of the stuff that could actually disappoint me is all on the shoulders of ATT. for instance not including TxT messaging with a data plan... considering how TINY the data numbers are for TxT messaging... then it makes a tolerable $80 bill after taxes into a $100+ bill... that is getting harder and harder to swallow.

I wouldn't expect a price drop of the iPhone anytime soon, unless of course you're talking about a different "tier" of the iPhone, which would invariably come with lesser technology than a higher tier counterpart. That is, by the way, how Apple justifies keeping the same prices for their products year after year, by constantly throwing in the newest techonology. As for TxT messaging, its not just AT&T; all carriers shamelessly gouge as it is well know that TxT messages are 100% pure profit (costs zilch) for the telcos. As a billions of dollars a year market, its no surprise how the telcos have managed to afford to beef up their networks drastically in recent years. Admittedly, AT&T is a bit more shameless than the rest, charging $20/mo. for unlimited (I think the last I knew Verizon was charging around $10 per month?). But I wouldn't expect this practice to change anytime soon. Its the bread and butter of the wireless industry \
post #36 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by libertyforall View Post

What a big step backwards to remove Wi-Fi! Don't do it Apple.

that would probably only be sold in developing countries.
post #37 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by SmilinGoat View Post

yeah, after taxes and data and all the required stuff, with the 450 min plan, it comes to just over $80 a month (with no txting)... now i add the $20 txting, as its easier to get a hold of a lot of people who dont take phone calls all the time, or simply cant answer their phone often... and vice versa when someone is trying to contact me.

with my group of friends, it comes to something like 2500 txts a month some times. personally i dont send that many, however i do get people sending to me quite often. it all comes together to be over $100, which is steep for a cell phone, i keep it because of all the features that come with the device itself, but it could stand to be quite a bit cheaper month to month.

I know there are taxes and fees added on. But the plan starts at $70 a month for 450 minutes without texting included. How do you get to over $100 without the texting being a big part of that?
post #38 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by iReality85 View Post

I wouldn't expect a price drop of the iPhone anytime soon, unless of course you're talking about a different "tier" of the iPhone, which would invariably come with lesser technology than a higher tier counterpart. That is, by the way, how Apple justifies keeping the same prices for their products year after year, by constantly throwing in the newest techonology. As for TxT messaging, its not just AT&T; all carriers shamelessly gouge as it is well know that TxT messages are 100% pure profit (costs zilch) for the telcos. As a billions of dollars a year market, its no surprise how the telcos have managed to afford to beef up their networks drastically in recent years. Admittedly, AT&T is a bit more shameless than the rest, charging $20/mo. for unlimited (I think the last I knew Verizon was charging around $10 per month?). But I wouldn't expect this practice to change anytime soon. Its the bread and butter of the wireless industry \

wasnt there a price drop between the first gen and the 3G? anyway, im not saying ATT would just drop TXT messaging, but they should start including it in their data plans, people are really starting to notice (there is actually a lawsuit about it now). they could still charge for TXT for non smart phones/people who dont already pay an extra $30 a month for data. i mean, im paying $50 a month extra to have Data on my phone... now in the end i barely justify it, but they could get a lot more poeple to jump on board if they just worked it a little differently.

isnt the monthly cost on the first gen iPhone less?
post #39 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I know there are taxes and fees added on. But the plan starts at $70 a month for 450 minutes without texting included. How do you get to over $100 without the texting being a big part of that?

im saying that WITH the txting it is over $100. and the txting costs nothing for the company to give, so it shoudl be an included feature for all of those with data plans (no matter the phone)
post #40 of 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by SmilinGoat View Post

im saying that WITH the txting it is over $100. and the txting costs nothing for the company to give, so it shoudl be an included feature for all of those with data plans (no matter the phone)

Then it would still be cheaper for you to just get the plan WITH texting, which is what I was saying.

It may cost the company almost nothing, but that's irrelevant. What does matter is what it costs us now. Maybe someday the costs will drop, but we have to deal with what we have in the present.
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