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Apple near saturation point for iPod, iTunes use by teens

post #1 of 59
Thread Starter 
The results of Piper Jaffray's 17th bi-annual teen survey are in, showing Apple to have broadened its lead in the areas of iPod consumption and iTunes usage -- both of which are nearing their saturation point -- as the company moves to translate these successes to its iPhone business.

"We believe that the teen demographic is a critical component of long-term growth in the digital music and mobile markets, and Apple is taking its leading position in music and moving aggressively into the mobile market," analyst Gene Munster wrote in a summary of his firm's findings.

Now in its eighth year, the bi-annual Teen Survey sees representatives for Piper Jaffray visit several high schools around the country and poll students about their interest and buying patterns in portable media players, online music, and, more recently, the iPhone. This year, 600 students with an average age of 16.3 years old were surveyed, 54 percent of which were male and 46 percent female.

iPods

Overall, 92 percent of students said they currently own a digital media player, up from 87 percent a year ago. Of these students, a resounding 86 percent reported owning an Apple-branded iPod, an increase of 2 percent from the same survey conducted in the fall of last year. Just 4 percent of students admitted to owning a Microsoft Zune.

However, when asked about their interest in buying a new digital media player in the next 12 months, only 19 percent said they planned to do so, representing a "dramatic" decline from 28 percent a year ago, and suggesting the market is near saturated. For Apple, the good news is that 100% of those respondents who said they plan to make a new purchase in the next 12 months indicated that their new player would be an iPod.

"Apple is dominant in the market, and the lead appears to be growing as the market nears saturation," Munster said, adding that this will likely drive Apple to turn its attention to secondary iPods like the new shuffle and iPods with more features and higher prices like the iPod touch. "Apple's dominance in the PMP market remains largely unchecked, and it is clear to us that Apple has captured the 'cool factor' among high school students across America."

Digital media player buying intentions amongst teens | Source: Piper Jaffray.

iTunes

Meanwhile, the percent of teens downloading music remains relatively high at 82 percent, a slight uptick from the 16th bi-annual Teen Survey conducted six months ago. Unfortunately for the record labels, more than half (60 percent) are still relying on illegal peer-to-peer file sharing networks to acquire their tunes. And despite the success of easy-to-use services like iTunes, this figure has fallen only 4 percent over the last two years.

That said, 97 percent of students who do purchase their music online through legal outlets say their digital shop of choice is the iTunes Store, up from 93 percent six months ago. Real Network's Rhapsody service was a most distant second, catering to just 2 percent of the students Piper Jarray surveyed. Napster was the only other service that registered in the poll, with a measly 1 percent of students confirming their use of the service, down from a high of 8 percent in the fall 2005 survey.

"As early as Fall-07, iTunes enjoyed market share of around 90 percent, which dipped to ~80 percent in the year following, due primarily to several new music services debuting with significant marketing pushes (Yahoo! Music, Rhapsody, eMusic, Amazon MP3, etc.)," Munster explained. "However, we believe, and our survey supports, that iTunes' share has since bounced back into the mid-90s as the appeal of these services has lost momentum."

Digital download service usage amongst teens | Source: Piper Jaffray.

iPhone

As far as iPhones and the teen demographic, Piper Jaffray's 16th bi-annual survey last fall found that 8 percent of teens owned an iPhone with an additional 22 percent saying they planned to buy one of the touch screen handsets over the next 6 months. In the most recent survey, the number of teen iPhone owners remained flat, though purchase intentions declined slightly to 16 percent.

"We believe AT&T rate plans are adversely causing the discrepancy in teen's interest in the phone, and actual market share gains; as much as teens want the phone, parents may be reluctant to add expensive monthly data plans to their teen's phone bill," Munster wrote. "We expect Apple to address this issue in the coming months, with a family of iPhone models including a high end model with current plan pricing and possibly a low-end model with fewer features and lower-cost monthly data plans."

iPhone buying intentions amongst teens | Source: Piper Jaffray.

The Piper Jaffray analyst, who maintains a Buy rating and $180 price target on shares of Apple, said this much-anticipated but unconfirmed model would be ideal for catering to more price sensitive geographies like China or price-sensitive demographics like teens.
post #2 of 59
If I was asked wether I'm planning to buy an iPod in the next 12 months I'd probably say no too, however as soon as Apple comes out with a new snarky iPod I would most definitely change my mind. When it comes to devices like the iPod people's plan-to-purchase is usually a week to a month not 12!! 12 months is more for real estate.
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post #3 of 59
Well iTunes new pricing will probably have adverse sales for the teen market especailly, lets face it they tend to be the ones who want the latest music as it comes out, with the record lables recent price hike p2p or other cheaper alternatives will seem tempting.
iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
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iPad, Macbook Pro, iPhone, heck I even have iLife! :-)
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post #4 of 59
Apple needs to getting the elderly camp. Build in a hearing enhancer.
2011 13" 2.3 MBP, 2006 15" 2.16 MBP, iPhone 4, iPod Shuffle, AEBS, AppleTV2 with XBMC.
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2011 13" 2.3 MBP, 2006 15" 2.16 MBP, iPhone 4, iPod Shuffle, AEBS, AppleTV2 with XBMC.
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post #5 of 59
Percentage of teens planning on purchasing a Zune: 0%
post #6 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Galley View Post

Percentage of teens planning on purchasing a Zune: 0%

Down from 15% in the fall, ouch! They must now be "cool enough" to own iPods.
post #7 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Galley View Post

Percentage of teens planning on purchasing a Zune: 0%

If you want to make a young girl cry, buy her an MP3 that is not an iPod!
post #8 of 59
@AppleInsider

how about "semi-annual"

edit: ahh, I now see they're both right
post #9 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The results of Piper Jaffray's 17th bi-annual teen survey are in, ...

This article and the study it's based on can be made irrelevant by merely adding the two words that *should* have appeared at the end of the article title (but didn't)

This should read: "Apple near saturation point for iPod, iTunes use by teens in America."

This is just going to get a lot of people riled up about "market saturation" that doesn't exist if you take of the red white and blue blinders. When will Americans learn that there is a world outside their borders?
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post #10 of 59
I wouldn't be surprised if some teens in the sample falsely claimed to have an iPod. Some may be stuck with something cheaper and/or a gift from a confused relative, but don't want to admit it. iPod is the only name with status.
post #11 of 59
I'm wondering how all those "cool" teenagers grow older and decide that "coolness" doesn't matter and end up with "uncool" cheap Microsoft PCs. Maybe if Apple could just build a netbook-type of computer with a somewhat reasonable price to target those teens. Apple has a huge amount of appeal to teenagers, yet such a small amount of appeal to older computer users. Maybe buying mp3 players can't be translated to buying computers due to the large price jump of one device to the other. Too bad Apple can't sustain those teenager's interest through the college years.
post #12 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Virgil-TB2 View Post

This article and the study it's based on can be made irrelevant by merely adding the two words that *should* have appeared at the end of the article title (but didn't)

This should read: "Apple near saturation point for iPod, iTunes use by teens in America."

This is just going to get a lot of people riled up about "market saturation" that doesn't exist if you take of the red white and blue blinders. When will Americans learn that there is a world outside their borders?

Maybe when other people stop lumping us together as though we're a single person. Your comment shows you as no different.

Also, the story reported that the study was within the country, not worldwide.
post #13 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by 8CoreWhore View Post

Apple needs to getting the elderly camp. Build in a hearing enhancer.

LOL. Meanwhile, marketing studies suggest infants benefit from early iPod interaction...
post #14 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post

Too bad Apple can't sustain those teenager's interest through the college years.

Well, they're sustaining one here (and I'm paying for most of the computer(s). They also hung onto my uncle since college, and who's now outfitted his whole business w/Mac, and Grandpa is much better off with his iMac since PC problems would probably kill him!

-AppleGuy'91
32GB iPod Touch 1G
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32GB iPod Touch 1G
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post #15 of 59
Apple has a huge untapped market both in iPod Touch and iPhone:
1. iPod Touch has huge potential both here in the US and in foreign markets. However, Apple need to add some features like hi end camera with mini zoom auto focus lens of good quality and CCD instead of the CMOS... and may be LED flash. The casual camera and video recording market is huge.

Another important feature would be a built-in mic. Free WiFi networks are very common here in the US in stores, universities, plus at home. Plus the same trend has started in Europe with free WiFi in parks, schools, universities, etc... they are even faster than here. With a VoIP plans it is a huge market. Apple could even tie in with Skype.

iPhone - It is quite onerous to have to sign up with ATT for the voice and data plan at such hi rates. Then have to pay extra for SMS even though it is just broad band app... so I would be paying twice.

QCOM and others make chip sets that allow multi band use over GSM, EDGE, CDMA, EVDO, WCDMA, etc and the variants. The BOM would not increase much. I know that Apple chained itself into a corner with ATT in the US... but there is a big wide world.

The main limitations with both product lines are those that Apple placed due to marketing constraints and limiting features. Not the first time they have done that.
post #16 of 59
There's no such thing as saturation when it comes to electronics and teenagers. Besides the obvious new models coming out all the time that they will lust over, they also lose or break such items at an alarming rate. There will always be ample reasons for them to "need" a new one long before they or their parents intended to make the purchase.
post #17 of 59
When was this survey taken? Sounds like teens have no use for the new shuffle if it was recent.
post #18 of 59
Pipper-jaffray has a $120 target on AAPL? I thought they were WAY above that.
post #19 of 59
Do you plan on buying an iPod in the next 12 months? No. The new iPod touch just came out, it has a 4MP still camera, does decent video too? How much? $_ _ _ _ Sold!
Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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Citing unnamed sources with limited but direct knowledge of the rumoured device - Comedy Insider (Feb 2014)
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post #20 of 59
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't it seem like every year or so someone is claiming that Apple has reached a "saturation point" with iPods. And then they just keep selling more of them.

Just because they have such a huge market share doesn't mean they won't keep selling new ones. iPods wear out, become obsolete, less cool, whatever. As long as Apple comes out with a new model - people will buy em.

This "saturation point" argument is getting old.
post #21 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

As far as iPhones and the teen demographic, Piper Jaffray's 16th bi-annual survey last fall found that 8 percent of teens owned an iPhone with an additional 22 percent saying they planned to buy one of the touch screen handsets over the next 6 months.

Very, very few teens plan on buying an iPhone. Most will get one courtesy of their parents, as noted in the next paragraph...

Quote:
"We believe AT&T rate plans are adversely causing the discrepancy in teen's interest in the phone, and actual market share gains; as much as teens want the phone, parents may be reluctant to add expensive monthly data plans to their teen's phone bill,"
post #22 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by walshbj View Post

... the story reported that the study was within the country, not worldwide.

You missed my point.

The story *mentions* (when quoting the source) that the study was for the USA, but even then only does so in a backhanded way by using the phrase "around the country" in the third paragraph. The report is about market saturation in the USA, but nothing in AppleInsider's presentation mentions or references that directly. It should be in the title that this is for the USA only and not "the market."

It's presented as an article about "how the market for iPods is saturated" when in fact it's clearly not saturated. The USA market might be nearing a saturation point but the world market simply can't be given Apple's penetration so far. In this case, the misrepresentation is going to stir up a lot of anger and frustration in the comments that have no basis in fact.

The confusion being created here is based on the substitution of "market" for "American market" and the mixing up of those two ideas/terms. That's just a plain old bias no matter how you slice it. It's totally valid for me to point out, (being one of the many non-americans on the internet), that if the authors were a bit more aware of their biases they wouldn't print junk like this.

I assume throughout of course, that this is just a simple mistake on AppleInsider's part and not a deliberate strategy to drive hits (a la Dvorak), by printing inflammatory articles designed to get people riled up by misrepresenting the facts.

I'm just trying to gently nudge the AppleInsider staff to think about the fact that they have an audience outside of the USA when writing on the Internet and that a large part of the people reading this site are actually not in the USA. It seems to me that this is just a simple mistake brought about by not really considering the audience for the article.
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post #23 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjitMD View Post

Apple has a huge untapped market both in iPod Touch and iPhone:
1. iPod Touch has huge potential both here in the US and in foreign markets. However, Apple need to add some features like hi end camera with mini zoom auto focus lens of good quality and CCD instead of the CMOS... and may be LED flash. The casual camera and video recording market is huge.

Another important feature would be a built-in mic. Free WiFi networks are very common here in the US in stores, universities, plus at home. Plus the same trend has started in Europe with free WiFi in parks, schools, universities, etc... they are even faster than here. With a VoIP plans it is a huge market. Apple could even tie in with Skype.

iPhone - It is quite onerous to have to sign up with ATT for the voice and data plan at such hi rates. Then have to pay extra for SMS even though it is just broad band app... so I would be paying twice.

QCOM and others make chip sets that allow multi band use over GSM, EDGE, CDMA, EVDO, WCDMA, etc and the variants. The BOM would not increase much. I know that Apple chained itself into a corner with ATT in the US... but there is a big wide world.

The main limitations with both product lines are those that Apple placed due to marketing constraints and limiting features. Not the first time they have done that.

Tell me ow you're going to defy physics sticking that camera into an iPod Touch with that kind of thinness? Something has to give buddy, and any attempt to cut corners will result in a crappy camera that NO ONE will use.

Plus, why on earth would Apple stick in a built-in mic? It wants to sell people iPhones! Stop thinking that Apple purely caters to the customer or shareholders are going to replace management.
post #24 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjitMD View Post

Apple has a huge untapped market both in iPod Touch and iPhone:
1. iPod Touch has huge potential both here in the US and in foreign markets. However, Apple need to add some features like hi end camera with mini zoom auto focus lens of good quality and CCD instead of the CMOS... and may be LED flash. The casual camera and video recording market is huge.

Another important feature would be a built-in mic. Free WiFi networks are very common here in the US in stores, universities, plus at home. Plus the same trend has started in Europe with free WiFi in parks, schools, universities, etc... they are even faster than here. With a VoIP plans it is a huge market. Apple could even tie in with Skype.

iPhone - It is quite onerous to have to sign up with ATT for the voice and data plan at such hi rates. Then have to pay extra for SMS even though it is just broad band app... so I would be paying twice.

QCOM and others make chip sets that allow multi band use over GSM, EDGE, CDMA, EVDO, WCDMA, etc and the variants. The BOM would not increase much. I know that Apple chained itself into a corner with ATT in the US... but there is a big wide world.

The main limitations with both product lines are those that Apple placed due to marketing constraints and limiting features. Not the first time they have done that.

1. It appears that the next iteration will have a better camera and video. Teens aren't going to unilaterally upgrade their cell phones because of this feature. However, a new iPod touch by adding a built-in camera to its current Wi-Fi capabilities would encourage many. LED flash would not be practical because of battery concerns and just how much can one expect such a feature to add to enhance its photographic capabilities.

2. Most places I have been in, i.e., universities, parks, etc., do not provide universal free-access to Wi-Fi. Here, Europe or Asia. Certainly, more and more are opening up, but not really free, unless you are a student or staff University Staff member, for example. And Wi-Fi is faster in Europe than here? Where did you come to that conclusion? As for VoIP plans being a huge marketabsolutely, however, they won't be free either. By the way, Skype is not free, either. You still have to have access to the net and I have yet to find totally universally free access either at home or away. Somebody has to pay somewhere, sometime.

3. SMS is not just a broad band appat over a 100 billion and counting a day, there is a lot of space being chewed up and somebody has to pay for storage and building the network infrastructure to instantly manage, coordinate and transfer such. The idea that building an interstate highway to handle a hundred cars going 50 miles an hour can simply be able to handle a million trucks going 70 miles an hour by simply taking down the toll booths is wishful thinking.

4. So Apple gets in bed with the only major service provider that would invest in enlarging and improving its network and drop their data plan charges so that we could have a cell phone that actually worked and have actual access to the internet at a significantly less price than ever before is 'chaining itself'?

5. So, could you tell me what other companies' products that have not been limited by marketing constraints and features? Are you saying the Nokia, RIM, MicroSoft, etc., introduced products that had every feature one could imagine from day one. Or are you saying by your comment, "Not the first time they have done that," that Apple maliciously held back?
post #25 of 59
What is the real meaning of "saturation point"? Does everyone who owns a telephone stop buying telephones just because they already have a phone? Substitute virtually any upgradable product in this sentence and it still applies. It is idiotic to suggest that teens won't continue to buy iPods because every teen who wants an iPod already has one. Completely idiotic.
post #26 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by Abster2core View Post

1. It appears that the next iteration will have a better camera and video. Teens aren't going to unilaterally upgrade their cell phones because of this feature. However, a new iPod touch by adding a built-in camera to its current Wi-Fi capabilities would encourage many. LED flash would not be practical because of battery concerns and just how much can one expect such a feature to add to enhance its photographic capabilities.

2. Most places I have been in, i.e., universities, parks, etc., do not provide universal free-access to Wi-Fi. Here, Europe or Asia. Certainly, more and more are opening up, but not really free, unless you are a student or staff University Staff member, for example. And Wi-Fi is faster in Europe than here? Where did you come to that conclusion? As for VoIP plans being a huge marketabsolutely, however, they won't be free either. By the way, Skype is not free, either. You still have to have access to the net and I have yet to find totally universally free access either at home or away. Somebody has to pay somewhere, sometime.

3. SMS is not just a broad band appat over a 100 billion and counting a day, there is a lot of space being chewed up and somebody has to pay for storage and building the network infrastructure to instantly manage, coordinate and transfer such. The idea that building an interstate highway to handle a hundred cars going 50 miles an hour can simply be able to handle a million trucks going 70 miles an hour by simply taking down the toll booths is wishful thinking.

4. So Apple gets in bed with the only major service provider that would invest in enlarging and improving its network and drop their data plan charges so that we could have a cell phone that actually worked and have actual access to the internet at a significantly less price than ever before is 'chaining itself'?

5. So, could you tell me what other companies' products that have not been limited by marketing constraints and features? Are you saying the Nokia, RIM, MicroSoft, etc., introduced products that had every feature one could imagine from day one. Or are you saying by your comment, "Not the first time they have done that," that Apple maliciously held back?

1. LED fill in flash does not consume too much power as it is lit for only a fraction of a second, but my experience has been that at close range it does improve the quality of picture. Not essential. Better quality lenses, especially coated glass lens with CCD would make a difference. All this adds to cost but the cost of other components have come down while the end user cost has remained the same - so far.

2, In my town USA, there are several coffee shops and other public places that have free WiFi access. Yes, some universities do grant free WiFi access to the students. That is a huge market. Europe has been improving their internet back bone in places like Scandinavia, Portugal, Spain. Standard bandwidth is now 24 MB/s via telco lines. and there are indications that will increase. Makes WiFi faster.

3. Anybody familiar with the principle of the Gorilla Game would not that by limiting itself to ATT, Apple has constrained its value chain. They could have sold the phone to multiple carriers with multiple radios. The competition would have kept prices of service like data low. That is what RIMM did or even Nokia. I suspect that the main reason Apple went with ATT was because the telco was willing to share monthly revenues,

4. VoIP is much cheaper than the ATT plans. VoIP to VoIP is free as in Skype to Skype or using other open protocols like in the Cisco/Sipura devices.

Apple has a history of putting roadblocks into its tech development. Starting with the original Mac. It was a nice computer but it has a closed architecture. One could not add a hard disk, video card and color monitor. By 1984 IBM PC was offering all of the above. No wonder that MSFT was able to dominate the market.
post #27 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by alansky View Post

What is the real meaning of "saturation point"? Does everyone who owns a telephone stop buying telephones just because they already have a phone? Substitute virtually any upgradable product in this sentence and it still applies. It is idiotic to suggest that teens won't continue to buy iPods because every teen who wants an iPod already has one. Completely idiotic.

That's what I was thinking actually. Is there any point or validity to making a statement about 'saturation'? I mean, next year there'll be more teenagers, and the year after, so there's no shortage of new buyers ... it's not like everyone already has one and will never buy another. There are still people growing up who have yet to experience the magic that is consumerism. \

Jimzip
"There's no time like the present, and the only present you'll never get, is time." - Me
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post #28 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by alansky View Post

What is the real meaning of "saturation point"? Does everyone who owns a telephone stop buying telephones just because they already have a phone? Substitute virtually any upgradable product in this sentence and it still applies. It is idiotic to suggest that teens won't continue to buy iPods because every teen who wants an iPod already has one. Completely idiotic.

I think in this case "saturation point" refers to the point in which your current rate of growth can not be maintained since the mix of new users to upgrading users will shift to being primarily upgraders. In theory, this will represent a much slower rate of growth. Not only that, but the growth in your product mix might also shift. If iPod has 100% market penetration, let's look at the shuffle market. How many people who have existing shuffles are likely to "upgrade" to a new shuffle? How many people would downgrade to a new shuffle? Apple might have to shift their targeting to address these issues (i.e. the shuffle stops being an _entry_ level device and becomes more of a _secondary_ device, i.e. you start promoting it as an adjunct to your current higher end iPod and therefore put in more features to facilitate this and advertise it as such.)
post #29 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by markb View Post

Pipper-jaffray has a $120 target on AAPL? I thought they were WAY above that.

That's what got me too! I remember Gene Munster reducing his price target from $250 to $235 in Dec 2008 and then from $235 to $180 on Jan 22, 2009. But when did the drop to $120 happen?

If that's a typo, it should be corrected immediately.
post #30 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by bitWrangler View Post

I think in this case "saturation point" refers to the point in which your current rate of growth can not be maintained since the mix of new users to upgrading users will shift to being primarily upgraders. In theory, this will represent a much slower rate of growth. Not only that, but the growth in your product mix might also shift. If iPod has 100% market penetration, let's look at the shuffle market. How many people who have existing shuffles are likely to "upgrade" to a new shuffle? How many people would downgrade to a new shuffle? Apple might have to shift their targeting to address these issues (i.e. the shuffle stops being an _entry_ level device and becomes more of a _secondary_ device, i.e. you start promoting it as an adjunct to your current higher end iPod and therefore put in more features to facilitate this and advertise it as such.)

That doesn't make any sense...

An 'upgrader' is still purchasing the new piece of hardware, and thus is a buyer. No?

If there was an option of upgrading the storage in the players, then they could be called 'upgraders' ... but everyone that wants the 'new thing' will buy a new unit ... please correct me if I'm wrong here.

Jimzip
"There's no time like the present, and the only present you'll never get, is time." - Me
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post #31 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamraj View Post

That's what got me too! I remember Gene Munster reducing his price target from $250 to $235 in Dec 2008 and then from $235 to $180 on Jan 22, 2009. But when did the drop to $120 happen?

If that's a typo, it should be corrected immediately.


its still 180.
post #32 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

When was this survey taken? Sounds like teens have no use for the new shuffle if it was recent.

Your obsession with hating the new shuffle is tiresome.
post #33 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjitMD View Post

... Apple has a history of putting roadblocks into its tech development. Starting with the original Mac. It was a nice computer but it has a closed architecture. One could not add a hard disk, video card and color monitor. ...

You seem like an older guy based on that remark about the coated lenses, but you need to come up with more than a single 30 year old example if you are going to be making drastic, blanket statements about Apple having a history of "blocking (tech) development."

Apple actually doesn't have "a history of putting roadblocks into it's tech development, it merely produces integrated systems and uses vertical product development. You may not like that approach, but it's perfectly valid, and to present this as Apple intentionally putting up "roadblocks" is a bit beyond the pale IMO.

Apple actually goes out of it's way to allow other vendors to make add-ons, accessories, and parts for it's products.
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post #34 of 59
The saturation point in the USA has definitely been coming. To be clear, this is the point at which growth will slow because Apple is only selling as kids get older, or they're selling upgraded models, or replacements.

What I've witnessed is that kids with iPods are getting much younger. The Nano with video is a perfect gadget-sitter for young kids, and the iPod Touch is good for pre-teens and younger teens who aren't ready for an iPhone.
post #35 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

The results of Piper Jaffray's 17th bi-annual teen survey are in, showing Apple to have broadened its lead in the areas of iPod consumption and iTunes usage -- both of which are nearing their saturation point -- as the company moves to translate these successes to its iPhone business.

"We believe that the teen demographic is a critical component of long-term growth in the digital music and mobile markets, .....



Sorry but score another dropped ball by anal---yst. Yes many people have iPods and I am sure that the number of them sold will start to level off. Its only natural since they last so long.

But the "anal---yst" misses the point. Apple is ready to sell you an iPod touch that is a game machine, internet connection, iPod, etc, etc for only 200$ which is a sweet spot given their numbers data. THEN, you sell them songs, games, apps, apps, apps....

Apple always skating to where the puck will be..... not looking in the rear view mirror like many anal--ysts.

Just a thought.
en
post #36 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by iBill View Post

Your obsession with hating the new shuffle is tiresome.

No obsession and not tiresome. Your lack of an answer however is pathetic.
post #37 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by AjitMD View Post

1. LED fill in flash does not consume too much power as it is lit for only a fraction of a second, but my experience has been that at close range it does improve the quality of picture. Not essential. Better quality lenses, especially coated glass lens with CCD would make a difference. All this adds to cost but the cost of other components have come down while the end user cost has remained the same - so far.

2, In my town USA, there are several coffee shops and other public places that have free WiFi access. Yes, some universities do grant free WiFi access to the students. That is a huge market. Europe has been improving their internet back bone in places like Scandinavia, Portugal, Spain. Standard bandwidth is now 24 MB/s via telco lines. and there are indications that will increase. Makes WiFi faster.

3. Anybody familiar with the principle of the Gorilla Game would not that by limiting itself to ATT, Apple has constrained its value chain. They could have sold the phone to multiple carriers with multiple radios. The competition would have kept prices of service like data low. That is what RIMM did or even Nokia. I suspect that the main reason Apple went with ATT was because the telco was willing to share monthly revenues,

4. VoIP is much cheaper than the ATT plans. VoIP to VoIP is free as in Skype to Skype or using other open protocols like in the Cisco/Sipura devices.

Apple has a history of putting roadblocks into its tech development. Starting with the original Mac. It was a nice computer but it has a closed architecture. One could not add a hard disk, video card and color monitor. By 1984 IBM PC was offering all of the above. No wonder that MSFT was able to dominate the market.

So much so wrong. In particular, the bit about MSFT.

In any case, here is some enlightening reading: The Untold Story: How the iPhone Blew Up the Wireless Industry http://www.wired.com/gadgets/wireles...6-02/ff_iphone
post #38 of 59
Wow, these tables are quite telling for a number of reasons. Very interesting! This sounds like an excellent survey.

Of particular note to me:

1. The declining market share of every device except the iPod (and Zune from 2% to 4%).
2. The fact that 13-15% of the market was "planning" to purchase Zunes, but only 2-4% actually did.
3. 100% of people planning to purchase an iPod! Wow!
4. Rapidly declining market shares of all music stores except iTunes, which is growing.

--mAc
post #39 of 59
Quote:
Originally Posted by markb View Post

Pipper-jaffray has a $120 target on AAPL? I thought they were WAY above that.

They have a moving target.
post #40 of 59
We need to have more sexing from our teens. That way we could have more customers for the iPods?
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