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Apple to report second quarter earnings on Wednesday

post #1 of 53
Thread Starter 
Apple following the close of the stock market on Wednesday will report results of its fiscal second quarter of 2009 ended March. Bullish Cross analyst and AppleInsider contributor Andy Zaky is readjusting his outlook on Apple to a view that is more commensurate with the increasingly bleak economic environment.

As unemployment continues to rise and discretionary income contracts, Apple will undoubtedly struggle to keep up its explosive growth in 2009. The current consensus estimates for 2009 have Apple earning $5.15 in EPS on revenue of $35.14 billion. While the current research data is less than favorable, the consensus is still overly pessimistic on the current period.

However, given the relatively high lack of transparency with regard to iPhone and Macintosh sales going forward, Bullish Cross holds an increasingly cautious view with regard to Apple’s fundamentals and earnings estimates in 2009. Bullish Cross now expect Apple to earn about $5.78 in EPS on $36.591 billion in revenue down from $6.63 in EPS on $41.196 billion in revenue. This reduction in estimates is due in large part to Apple intentionally making it more difficult if not impossible to track iPhone sales using IMEI data. However, if the third generation iPhone is well received by the consumer this summer or if the economic climate becomes substantially more improved in the latter half of 2009, there is ample room for Apple to handedly beat these estimates.

For fiscal Q2 2009, Bullish Cross expects Apple to earn about $1.19 in EPS on $8.318 billion in revenue on a GAAP basis versus the consensus of $1.09 in EPS on $7.94 billion in revenue. The consensus estimates for Q2 are far more fairly stated than they’ve been in previous quarters. On a non-GAAP basis, Bullish Cross expects Apple to earn $1.59 in EPS on $8.798 billion in revenue. One can interpret the recent research data as indicating that Apple could sell about 10.5 million iPods, 2.45 million Macs and about 3 million iPhones. The Mac assumption could prove optimistic.

Andy Zaky’s Earnings Estimates for Q2 2009 (in Millions, except for per share data)



Revenue Breakdown by Product Summary for Q2 2009



Andy Zaky’s GAAP-Based Earnings Estimates for FY 2009 (in Millions)
post #2 of 53
Apple releases only their most expensive product (17"MacBook Pro) in a recession and one of their worse products ever(shuffle 3Gen) this quarter. Lackluster number$ would not be surprising.
post #3 of 53
Aren't forecasts useful if done in advance? Releasing a forecast (adjusted) just days before the announcement of results has an importance and significance that escapes me completely, unless if someone in unable to wait two days.. Or short term speculators?

I honestly don't understand it. If someone can explain I'm more than willing to understand..
post #4 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by iMat View Post

Aren't forecasts useful if done in advance? Releasing a forecast (adjusted) just days before the announcement of results has an importance and significance that escapes me completely, unless if someone in unable to wait two days.. Or short term speculators?

I honestly don't understand it. If someone can explain I'm more than willing to understand..

gives the boys on the stock floor some breathing room to make decisions. I don't really understand it either, but I think of it as a buffer time.

What I want to know is what if the forecast is wrong? How awesome would that be? Apple forecasts horrible profits, stock prices go down, we buy in, turns out they did awesome as usual and stock goes back up, we profit :P
post #5 of 53
Non-GAAP should be equal or lower to GAAP EPS this quarter, based on moderate iPhone sales relative to the past 7 quarters average. $1.19 Seems a little low to me in that I haven't seen anything looking that bad for Apple lately. Stores still busy, margins still solid.

Q3 Might be a little dull earnings wise, but still no driver for 8-10% drop in profits given all the deferred revenue.

But with Andy sounding a little bearish it makes me cautious!
post #6 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Apple releases only their most expensive product (17"MacBook Pro) in a recession and one of their worse products ever(shuffle 3Gen) this quarter. Lackluster number$ would not be surprising.

I'm not really sure that Apples customers for a Mac Book Pro really care about the economy, that is number one. As far as Suffles go the new one is considered by many to be one of the best yet, #2.

Apples biggest problem isn't the economy but rather poor product configuration. The best example here being the new iMacs which are still running dual core laptop processors. That will have a bigger impact on iMac sales than anything. The iMacs recent upgrade makes it obvious that Apple doesn't have the chops to compete in the market place.

I actually think people will be pleasently surprised with the new numbers. Desktop Mac sales will be down some but the iPod family will be doing well. It might end up being a strong quarter.


Dave
post #7 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Apple releases only their most expensive product (17"MacBook Pro) in a recession and one of their worse products ever(shuffle 3Gen) this quarter. Lackluster number$ would not be surprising.

Man, you bring out the devil's advocate in me!

There are recent iMacs and fairly recent notebooks. Perceived price break in 24" iMac. People in the USA have tax refunds burning holes in their wallets. iPod touch is a sleeper hit. Lots of people have no issue with the Shuffle.

When I didn't have two nickels in 1993 I still went out and bought a $2000 laptop. Consumer behavior isn't always what we expect.

I expect Apple to beat the street. And I expect the stock to drop on the outlook.
post #8 of 53
You lost your way on this one, "teckstud."

The numbers for the new Shuffle are quite impressive thus far (according to a friend who works at the local Apple retail store). Yesterday a fairly distant relative called to ask the only Mac aficianado in his circle (me) to provide more "real world" info about the voice capabilities of the new Shuff. Sent him to the website; he was very impressed and ordered one on the spot.

Don't be too sure about what OTHER people like, ts. Your tastes are not--and cannot be--arbiter for the world marketplace.
post #9 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Apple releases only their most expensive product (17"MacBook Pro) in a recession and one of their worse products ever(shuffle 3Gen) this quarter. Lackluster number$ would not be surprising.

I don't think Shuffle is the worst product ever. I think the round mouse was the worst product ever.
Apple had me at scrolling
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Apple had me at scrolling
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post #10 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by iVlad View Post

I don't think Shuffle is the worst product ever. I think the round mouse was the worst product ever.

I said one of the worst.
I personally think the iPod HIFI was the worst ever- Big and ugly with mediocre sound.
I don't even think it would work now with an iPod Touch or iPhone.
post #11 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by VinitaBoy View Post

You lost your way on this one, "teckstud."

The numbers for the new Shuffle are quite impressive thus far (according to a friend who works at the local Apple retail store). Yesterday a fairly distant relative called to ask the only Mac aficianado in his circle (me) to provide more "real world" info about the voice capabilities of the new Shuff. Sent him to the website; he was very impressed and ordered one on the spot.

Don't be too sure about what OTHER people like, ts. Your tastes are not--and cannot be--arbiter for the world marketplace.

Cool down- I'm basing it on the majority of tech reviews and others opinions expressed on here and elsewhere. Facts and OTHER's opinions.
post #12 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by wizard69 View Post

I'm not really sure that Apples customers for a Mac Book Pro really care about the economy, that is number one. As far as Suffles go the new one is considered by many to be one of the best yet, #2.

Apples biggest problem isn't the economy but rather poor product configuration. The best example here being the new iMacs which are still running dual core laptop processors. That will have a bigger impact on iMac sales than anything. The iMacs recent upgrade makes it obvious that Apple doesn't have the chops to compete in the market place.

I actually think people will be pleasently surprised with the new numbers. Desktop Mac sales will be down some but the iPod family will be doing well. It might end up being a strong quarter.


Dave

Actually I predict the iPod Touch to save the day.
post #13 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by iMat View Post

Aren't forecasts useful if done in advance? Releasing a forecast (adjusted) just days before the announcement of results has an importance and significance that escapes me completely, unless if someone in unable to wait two days.. Or short term speculators?

I honestly don't understand it. If someone can explain I'm more than willing to understand..

What added importance would it have if it had been made 2 months ago? I'm seriously curious - if your focus is on the stock, there is no difference between a forecast made today and made two months ago - either way the market doesn't know the number so you can freely trade based on your belief in the number without having "missed the boat"
post #14 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by iVlad View Post

I don't think Shuffle is the worst product ever. I think the round mouse was the worst product ever.

Good gucka mucka. You WOULD have to bring THAT gem up!
Pity the agnostic dyslectic. They spend all their time contemplating the existence of dog.
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Pity the agnostic dyslectic. They spend all their time contemplating the existence of dog.
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post #15 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Actually I predict the iPod Touch to save the day.

Don't forget all the free word-of-mouth Lauren and Gianpaulo have been providing...
post #16 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by walshbj View Post

Don't forget all the free word-of-mouth Lauren and Gianpaulo have been providing...

When your competitor's commercial revolves around your product, shows your product and then has an actor call it 'sexy' you really wonder who that advertising agency really works for.
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post #17 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

When your competitor's commercial revolves around your product, shows your product and then has an actor call it 'sexy' you really wonder who that advertising agency really works for.

It's a stupid ad of course, but so are the "I'm a PC and I'm a Mac" ads. On one end of the spectrum, you've got a company who's trying to be too "understanding" and giving their competitor too much good publicity, on the other end you've got a company who seems completely blind to the truth and misleads viewers.

Whatever happened to the "in between" method? Since when did a car company show their competition, calling it sexy and fast, but theirs is affordable and practical. Or when did you see a Chevy commercial go on a tirade about how Dodge's transmissions absolutely suck and fall apart.

I think ms ads have something going by using seemingly "real" people in their ads, but they are using the wrong reasons for why they appeal to those "real" people.
post #18 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

When your competitor's commercial revolves around your product, shows your product and then has an actor call it 'sexy' you really wonder who that advertising agency really works for.

To a degree I used to think the whole "don't acknowledge your competition even exists" thing was mostly an academic thing. But in this case I think it shines a mega-spotlight on what is becoming one of Microsoft's biggest distractions.


Sidenote: When I studied marketing in college there were only 4 Ps. Now there are 6 ! It's amazing that everything to do with marketing starts with P !!
post #19 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by walshbj View Post

To a degree I used to think the whole "don't acknowledge your competition even exists" thing was mostly an academic thing. But in this case I think it shines a mega-spotlight on what is becoming one of Microsoft's biggest distractions.


Sidenote: When I studied marketing in college there were only 4 Ps. Now there are 6 ! It's amazing that everything to do with marketing starts with P !!

Don't forget PRETEND
post #20 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

When your competitor's commercial revolves around your product, shows your product and then has an actor call it 'sexy' you really wonder who that advertising agency really works for.

Well nothing could be worse than the "There's an App for That" commercials. That guy has the most annoying voice ever.
post #21 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Well nothing could be worse than the "There's an App for That" commercials. That guy has the most annoying voice ever.

I won't disagree on that, but Apple's commercials are keenly focused and well designed. Whether you like them or not, disagree with what they are selling or stating, they get their point across very well. Even the slogan "There's an app for that" is well designed. I've heard it said outside of the commercials and that is a good thing for Apple.
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post #22 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Apple releases only their most expensive product (17"MacBook Pro) in a recession and one of their worse products ever(shuffle 3Gen) this quarter. Lackluster number$ would not be surprising.

Yes, and if they post good numbers you'll whine how they took advantage of their customers in a down economy.
post #23 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

I said one of the worst.
I personally think the iPod HIFI was the worst ever- Big and ugly with mediocre sound.
I don't even think it would work now with an iPod Touch or iPhone.

My iPod Touch works great with my HIFI, it just doesn't charge it.
post #24 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by iVlad View Post

I don't think Shuffle is the worst product ever. I think the round mouse was the worst product ever.

I second that... and the Mighty Mouse is a close runner-up.

Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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Proud AAPL stock owner.

 

GOA

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post #25 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Well nothing could be worse than the "There's an App for That" commercials. That guy has the most annoying voice ever.

Yeah I actually change the channel when those come on. The guy's voice really is just too... GAY. His smug sounding ending, "Yep, there's an app for just about... Anything! ONLY, on the iphone." just sends shivers down my spine lol
post #26 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I won't disagree on that, but Apple's commercials are keenly focused and well designed. Whether you like them or not, disagree with what they are selling or stating, they get their point across very well. Even the slogan "There's an app for that" is well designed. I've heard it said outside of the commercials and that is a good thing for Apple.

I suppose you still go around saying "Where's the Beef" ?
At least those were funny - the Apple App adds are just annoying.
post #27 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by iStink View Post

Yeah I actually change the channel when those come on. The guy's voice really is just too... GAY. His smug sounding ending, "Yep, there's an app for just about... Anything! ONLY, on the iphone." just sends shivers down my spine lol

It makes we want to throw my remote at the TV- it's so grating. Couldn't they have used like Scarlett Johanssen voice? I'm waiting for Harvey Firestein's next.
post #28 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

I suppose you still go around saying "Where's the Beef" ?
At least those were funny - the Apple App adds are just annoying.

I don't go around reciting any commercial but the proof in the pudding. You posted the slogan of an annoying commercial slogan that is still easily recalled and probably still makes you think of the brand, Wendy's. I'd say that its quite clear that catchy phrases work.

Here are some other popular slogans...
  1. Just do it. (Nike)
  2. Tastes great, less filling. (Miller Lite)
  3. Always Coca-Cola. (Coca-Cola)
  4. Melt in your mouth, not in your hands. (M&Ms)
  5. Diamonds are forever. (DeBeers)
  6. Breakfast of champions. (Wheaties)
  7. We try harder. (Avis)
  8. We bring good things to life. (General Electric)
  9. Good to the last drop. (Maxwell House)
  10. Look Ma, no cavities! (Crest)
  11. Dont leave home without it. (American Express)
  12. Im lovin it! (McDonalds)

The DeBeers slogan is probably the most impressive one.
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post #29 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Couldn't they have used like Scarlett Johanssen voice?

That is the first good idea you've had.
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post #30 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I don't go around reciting any commercial but the proof in the pudding. You posted the slogan of an annoying commercial slogan that is still easily recalled and probably still makes you think of the brand, Wendy's. I'd say that its quite clear that catchy phrases work.

Here are some other popular slogans...
  1. Just do it. (Nike)
  2. Tastes great, less filling. (Miller Lite)
  3. Always Coca-Cola. (Coca-Cola)
  4. Melt in your mouth, not in your hands. (M&Ms)
  5. Diamonds are forever. (DeBeers)
  6. Breakfast of champions. (Wheaties)
  7. We try harder. (Avis)
  8. We bring good things to life. (General Electric)
  9. Good to the last drop. (Maxwell House)
  10. Look Ma, no cavities! (Crest)
  11. Don’t leave home without it. (American Express)
  12. I’m lovin it! (McDonalds)

The DeBeers slogan is probably the most impressive one.

And you honestly think "There's an App for That" ranks up there with those?

How's this one- "Moms depend on Kool-Aid like kids depend on Moms."
post #31 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

And you honestly think "There's an App for That" ranks up there with those?"

How exactly does your brain function? Seriously, that is not a rhetorical question! I can't imagine how you could honestly think that I'm stating it ranks as the best slogan of all time from a statement about how slogan marketing works. You are the one that brought up one of the more well known slogans of all time, not me. All I did was use your example and other famous slogans to show how a well stated slogan markets itself, no matter annoying.
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post #32 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

How exactly does your brain function? Seriously, that is not a rhetorical question! I can't imagine how you could honestly think that I'm stating it ranks as the best slogan of all time from a statement about how slogan marketing works. You are the one that brought up one of the more well known slogans of all time, not me.

Simple, I would ask that question because you stated this:

Quote:
Apple's commercials are keenly focused and well designed. Whether you like them or not, disagree with what they are selling or stating, they get their point across very well. Even the slogan "There's an app for that" is well designed. I've heard it said outside of the commercials and that is a good thing for Apple.

Where exactly do you hear it being said- I'm curious? In an Apple store by an Apple salesman? By an annoying child?
Fill us in.
post #33 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Simple, I would ask that question because you stated this:

And what part of that implies that that, and I quote, "And you honestly think "There's an App for That" ranks up there with those?" "? Thought so.
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post #34 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

I suppose you still go around saying "Where's the Beef" ?
At least those were funny - the Apple App adds are just annoying.

Hello Mr. Pot. Meet Mr. Kettle.

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

Reply
post #35 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

And what part of that implies that that, and I quote, "And you honestly think "There's an App for That" ranks up there with those?" "? Thought so.

Perhaps because you think it so well designed and you hear it around town as well? HELLO- ANYONE HOME?
post #36 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Perhaps because you think it so well designed and you hear it around town as well? HELLO- ANYONE HOME?

Hearing a phrase outside of a commercial or an Apple-based website implies that the listener must automatically think it's the best... slogan... ever? Have you heard the phrase, "Does no compute"?

PS: Back to your corner, as you've thrown this thread off enough as it is. <ignore>
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post #37 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

Hearing a phrase outside of a commercial or an Apple-based website implies that the listener must automatically think it's the best... slogan... ever? Have you heard the phrase, "Does no compute"?

PS: Back to your corner, as you've thrown this thread off enough as it is. <ignore>


Quote:
Have you heard the phrase, "Does no compute"?

Maybe in a third world country. Where I come from the correct word is "not".

You gave us a top ten list of slogans and I've thrown off this thread? Have you ever heard of a "Warped Distortion Field"?
post #38 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by teckstud View Post

Well nothing could be worse than the "There's an App for That" commercials. That guy has the most annoying voice ever.

You know, there's an app for that too. Voice changing... LOL!

In regards to the quarter, anything over estimates will be considered great considering the guidance was high and the economy is down considerably. In a time when retail sales are down more than 20%, manufacturing is off more than half and spending on R&D is flat if not down across the sectors. Anything over estimates is great.

What really changes the ticker is the guidance.

Apple will do well, MS will try to mate with Yahoo and offspring some kind of morphed reality that again doesn't work, blame yahoo for it then close them down once it goes quiet.

Apple numbers could rally or rack the tech sector.
post #39 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

I don't go around reciting any commercial but the proof in the pudding. You posted the slogan of an annoying commercial slogan that is still easily recalled and probably still makes you think of the brand, Wendy's. I'd say that its quite clear that catchy phrases work.

Here are some other popular slogans...
  1. Just do it. (Nike)
  2. Tastes great, less filling. (Miller Lite)
  3. Always Coca-Cola. (Coca-Cola)
  4. Melt in your mouth, not in your hands. (M&Ms)
  5. Diamonds are forever. (DeBeers)
  6. Breakfast of champions. (Wheaties)
  7. We try harder. (Avis)
  8. We bring good things to life. (General Electric)
  9. Good to the last drop. (Maxwell House)
  10. Look Ma, no cavities! (Crest)
  11. Dont leave home without it. (American Express)
  12. Im lovin it! (McDonalds)

The DeBeers slogan is probably the most impressive one.

Don't forget adding "DOT COM.... " TO anything. Expedia... DOT COM. Your all saying it in your head right now... Don't lie.
post #40 of 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by solipsism View Post

When your competitor's commercial revolves around your product, shows your product and then has an actor call it 'sexy' you really wonder who that advertising agency really works for.

Hehe, I like how you worded that.
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