Originally Posted by jimmac
Well my reasoning served me well during the last election.
Cycles are really undeniable. There's a cycle that governs economic ups and downs as well.
Correct and it is cycling from fear to greed. There hasn't been a way conjured yet to stop both so it will continue. Also though a cycle can affect the overall economy but that doesn't mean it has to effect you to the same degree. If you can see where fear and greed are currently acting, you can try to mitigate that. So for example I didn't buy houses at that high water mark nor even near it. You can tell when things have left their fundamentals and say instead of just noting the cycle you can have it work for you.
Here are some cycles I'm sure you don't want to think about. Americans like divided government. An elected president and his party often lose several house seats in the first term. I know this because you kept counting on it all those years from 2000-2004. and noting it. Republicans overcame that trend twice.
If you use that model sure there are aberrations that occur making each cycle unique. But basically it's still a cycle. We go from a Bull market to a bear market. Albeit individual cycles are more pronounced or less.
When you look at those factors, you see what makes the cycle unique. Housing versus stocks as examples or perhaps both the next time when you were only counting on one to bubble.
So what you're saying is you'd rather be right and watch us all suffer than be wrong about Obama and his approach is successful?
If Obama spent two trillion dollars trying to stop the rotation of the earth and it didn't work, why should I be accused of wanting him to fail? Reality is reality. Delusions are the opposite of reality so noting both will remain as they are does not mean one is wishing suffering or failing on anyone.
Financial bubbles are bubbles for a reason. They are driven by collective greed. Obama thinks he can fill that bubble gap by spending. Everyone here has noted that gap and understands his reasoning. He state the economy was 13 trillion of activity and now will be 10 trillion and we need to fill that gap somehow. However the gap is created due to people no longer financing and spending more than they make due to a desire to speculate out of greed. Conjuring up $2 trillion of spending won't change those behaviors. It will be wasted money and what is hilarious is that if you asked if they want the factors that created that level of spending restored they will say no. They just want the number sans the greed.
Are you actually hoping for this just to be right?
I think our leaders have been wise in letting a two party system evolve. When one get's out of hand ( Republican or Democrat there's an alternative ).
We tried the let it run on it's own thing and you can see what happened.
I don't know for sure if Obama's plan will fix things but as Krugman says " At least he's doing something. Which is what I've been saying all along about this. Doing the same thing that got us into this by just letting it run on it''s own obviously won't work. We deregulated the banks and you can see what happened.
We didn't have time to try the same thing over again.
I don't have to hope for the sun to rise or for gravity to be a fundamental force. They just are and if someone declared they would spend money to make that not so, I don't have to hope for failure there either.
As for doing something, the something should be related to reasoning. You could be bit by a poisonous snake and I could hit you with a stick. I would be doing "something" but it wouldn't accomplish much. If you complain about being hit not being effective, me declaring you actually have a desire to see me fail or for us to collectively "suffer" won't alter the reality either. In reality hit people with sticks doesn't fix the poison from a snake bite.
This is what is a bit strange in your reasoning, you note the cycle but then want to give someone else motivations for noting that it cannot be altered. If everything is cyclical, then part or realizing that is that anyone who fails to follow that is being harmful. If the downtimes are cyclical, then someone spending $2 trillion to stop what cannot be stopped is being delusional. People noting it cannot be stopped are not wishing or hoping for anything, just remembering reality.
Myself I hope Obama's plan works. I don't know that it will but it's a better outcome to look forward to than the alternative. No matter who's in office.
Yes we will.
If everything is cyclical, then you should hope it doesn't "work" in that you should hope that the cycle will continue on regardless of the claims of others.
Let's reverse this for a moment Jimmac. Suppose Republicans were in power and we had this cycle we call day and night. The day cycle ends and the night cycle begins. Republican declare that they have just the right policies to return that wonderful daylight again and that if you don't endorse them that the woeful lack of light known as night will continue on and might even get worse.
Noting that the sun will rise without Republicans doesn't mean you are wishing or hoping anything bad for anyone.
Likewise what you really don't want is people getting their reasoning assigned as correlation with causation. Suppose the Republicans go and invade Iraq. Then the daylight returns. Now you are stuck arguing with people that we don't need to invade countries to stop the night from coming nor to cause the daylight to return. When the night returns now you are stuck with a bunch of idiots declaring we should just make some bombs and drop them somewhere. "We have to do something" would be the refrain "since it is night."
Fear puts an end to greed. When people forget their fear they will start acting greedy again, hopefully with less debt and with economic resources properly reallocated. However if you stick trillions into the mix to obscure this fact then the next time it is night you have people arguing with the same bad reasoning, we need to do something, we can't possibly let the cycle be the cycle and worse still instead of looking at fear and greed, they will look at something else. Dust tossed into the mix.