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California Bankruptcy

post #1 of 41
Thread Starter 
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...sket-case.html

Is Obama trying to push California into bankruptcy?

"One of the biggest stories in politics earlier this year was about California's budget teetering on the edge of a $42-billion deficit abyss. It only staved off insolvency when its legislature ended three months of gridlock to pass a budget with steep tax hikes and spending cuts. Guess what the Obama Administration is doing? It is telling Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger that it will revoke nearly $7 billion in federal stimulus money unless the state restores legislated wage cuts for unionized health-care workers."

What is the most likely outcome for the state? The debt rating agencies are a bunch of idiots, granted, but they all lowered the rating on California bonds a couple months ago... How bad could things get?
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post #2 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...sket-case.html

Is Obama trying to push California into bankruptcy?

"One of the biggest stories in politics earlier this year was about California's budget teetering on the edge of a $42-billion deficit abyss. It only staved off insolvency when its legislature ended three months of gridlock to pass a budget with steep tax hikes and spending cuts. Guess what the Obama Administration is doing? It is telling Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger that it will revoke nearly $7 billion in federal stimulus money unless the state restores legislated wage cuts for unionized health-care workers."

What is the most likely outcome for the state? The debt rating agencies are a bunch of idiots, granted, but they all lowered the rating on California bonds a couple months ago... How bad could things get?

I would guess California is being terminated.
post #3 of 41
Boy, it's a good thing we didn't stick with Gray Davis.
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post #4 of 41
Well, it's official.

Arnold laid me off today. Just got my letter via certified mail.

Big jerk.
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post #5 of 41
California: proof that socialism doesn't work.

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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post #6 of 41
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

California: proof that socialism doesn't work.

How do you explain Canada, which is much more socialist and much more successful than California?
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post #7 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

How do you explain Canada, which is much more socialist and much more successful than California?

Successful at what?

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

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post #8 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

Successful at what?

Instead of "bite me", you can "tongue" me.

What kind of a retarded question is that?
post #9 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by screener View Post

Instead of "bite me", you can "tongue" me.

What kind of a retarded question is that?

My apologies. Allow me to clarify:

In what ways you do think Canada is more successful than California when it comes to socialism and socialist policies? How do you define "success" in this context?

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

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post #10 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

My apologies. Allow me to clarify:

In what ways you do think Canada is more successful than California when it comes to socialism and socialist policies? How do you define "success" in this context?

Our streets are cleaner.
post #11 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

My apologies. Allow me to clarify:

In what ways you do think Canada is more successful than California when it comes to socialism and socialist policies? How do you define "success" in this context?

Basic standard of living and poverty level. Which is how success in any society should be measured.
post #12 of 41
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

Successful at what?

Financially successful. Their national debt is much lower than ours, income taxes are the same, and corporate taxes are lower, while government services are much better.

Canada is a more efficient country than the US.
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post #13 of 41
The comparisons here are interesting but also probably misleading. No exact ones can be made.

One thing that is interesting (and probably a bit coincidental) is the comparison between Canada and California. Interesting because these two entities are actually about the same size.

Canada has about 33.6 million people
California has about 36.7 million people

Canada's GDP is about $1.5 trillion
California's GDP is about $1.7 trillion

I don't know what the various taxes burdens or government as % of GDP in each is. Probably similar but I don't know for sure. If anyone can find this information it would be interesting to add.

Clearly though there are differences that likely strongly affect the poltiical and economic climate of each.

First, California is much more densely populated and has more, higher population urban settings. Second, California is not it's own country and must live withing the constraints (and benefits) of the United States.

Now the comparisons between Canada and the U.S. as a whole can be made but might become more problematic. The first problem is that the U.S. is about ten times the size of Canada and while certain general principles and analysis apply, when we're dealing with extremely large groups of diverse people, differences of this magnitude can be quite huge.

We can look at measures like size of government relative to the economy as one way to determine "how socialist" a country might be.

In Canada government spending equaled 39.3 percent of GDP. In the U.S. it's about 36.7 percent (but rising more quickly lately). I can't yet find any good numbers on this at the state level for California, but it would be interesting.

There are lots of measures to figure out "how successful" a particular country (or region) is. Everyone has their bias as to which one matters the most in their opinion. Things like the Gini index for example are a favorite for some. Personally I'd want to look at a cross section of things. Gini might be one (but not the only). Per capita GDP, median incomes, immigration/emigration patterns and trends (people tend to vote with their feet), economic and political freedom indexes, etc.

Bottom line though right now, overall, at least from an anecdotal perspective, California is in some trouble. The U.S. is too. Canada is faring better at this time.
post #14 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by involuntary_serf View Post

The comparisons here are interesting but also probably misleading. No exact ones can be made.

One thing that is interesting (and probably a bit coincidental) is the comparison between Canada and California. Interesting because these two entities are actually about the same size.

Canada has about 33.6 million people
California has about 36.7 million people

Canada's GDP is about $1.5 trillion
California's GDP is about $1.7 trillion

I don't know what the various taxes burdens or government as % of GDP in each is. Probably similar but I don't know for sure. If anyone can find this information it would be interesting to add.

Clearly though there are differences that likely strongly affect the poltiical and economic climate of each.

First, California is much more densely populated and has more, higher population urban settings. Second, California is not it's own country and must live withing the constraints (and benefits) of the United States.

Now the comparisons between Canada and the U.S. as a whole can be made but might become more problematic. The first problem is that the U.S. is about ten times the size of Canada and while certain general principles and analysis apply, when we're dealing with extremely large groups of diverse people, differences of this magnitude can be quite huge.

We can look at measures like size of government relative to the economy as one way to determine "how socialist" a country might be.

In Canada government spending equaled 39.3 percent of GDP. In the U.S. it's about 36.7 percent (but rising more quickly lately). I can't yet find any good numbers on this at the state level for California, but it would be interesting.

There are lots of measures to figure out "how successful" a particular country (or region) is. Everyone has their bias as to which one matters the most in their opinion. Things like the Gini index for example are a favorite for some. Personally I'd want to look at a cross section of things. Gini might be one (but not the only). Per capita GDP, median incomes, immigration/emigration patterns and trends (people tend to vote with their feet), economic and political freedom indexes, etc.

Bottom line though right now, overall, at least from an anecdotal perspective, California is in some trouble. The U.S. is too. Canada is faring better at this time.

Yeah, what you said.

Another thing to note is that Canada is much more energy independent. In fact, doesn't the U.S. import a large quantity of oil from Canada?

Granted, the population of Canada is substantially smaller than the U.S., so they do not require nearly as much energy to sustain themselves.

Also, the health care system in Canada has problems. People have to go to the U.S. or elsewhere to receive treatment in some cases.

http://www.onthefencefilms.com <-- The movie "Dead Meat" is a good one, but there are others worth checking out.

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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post #15 of 41
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

Also, the health care system in Canada has problems. People have to go to the U.S. or elsewhere to receive treatment in some cases.

Those are edge cases - for regular life, I was much happier with the medical system when I lived in Canada.

Also, I would be willing to bet that the number of people in the US who can't get the medical they need far exceeds those same type of cases in Canada. I was denied insurance because of pre-existing conditions last year - if I wasn't rich and easily employable, I would have had big problems paying for the medical care I needed.
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post #16 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Guybrush Threepwood View Post

Well, it's official.

Arnold laid me off today. Just got my letter via certified mail.

Big jerk.

I'm sorry to hear it has affected you personally. It's not pleasant being laid off. However, on a related note, it's a fact that California is spending far too much in relation to it's taxes collected, and those taxes are the highest in the nation which in turn causes the accelerated flight of businesses from the state and the extended collapse of housing (which, again is way out of whack with the marketplace). To be blunt, the size of government in CA needs to be radically reduced and our taxes need to be competitive with our neighboring states and those of other nations. California is sinking fast and the same old politics of tax and cave in to teacher's unions, prison guard unions, firefighters and police unions... are not helping.

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post #17 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

Financially successful. Their national debt is much lower than ours, income taxes are the same, and corporate taxes are lower, while government services are much better.

Canada is a more efficient country than the US.

Have you actually lived in Canada? I mean, seriously!

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post #18 of 41
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Have you actually lived in Canada? I mean, seriously!

For my first 25 years I lived in Canada, I moved to the US in 1993. Taxes and debt have been lowered since I left. Everything I said in that quote is factually correct.

Have you lived in Canada? What do you think is wrong from my post?
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post #19 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

For my first 25 years I lived in Canada, I moved to the US in 1993. Taxes and debt have been lowered since I left. Everything I said in that quote is factually correct.

Have you lived in Canada? What do you think is wrong from my post?

Sorry the 'laughing smiley' didn't have it's intended effect... just a joke, my friend.

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post #20 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

California: proof that socialism doesn't work.

Man, come on! Stop with the "socialism" crap. You guys sound like a lame broken record. And you guys don't even use the friggin' term correctly as it doesn't even apply.

And thanks for derailing a thread about "California's problems" into a debate about Canada versus the U.S.
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post #21 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northgate View Post

Man, come on! Stop with the "socialism" crap. You guys sound like a lame broken record. And you guys don't even use the friggin' term correctly as it doesn't even apply.

And thanks for derailing a thread about "California's problems" into a debate about Canada versus the U.S.

Government imposed redistribution of wealth is not socialist?

I wasn't the one who brought up Canada.

Malo periculosam, libertatem quam quietam servitutem.

(I prefer the tumult of liberty to the quiet of servitude.)

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post #22 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

Sorry the 'laughing smiley' didn't have it's intended effect... just a joke, my friend.

You got owned dude. Here's one you can use:



post #23 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northgate View Post

Man, come on! Stop with the "socialism" crap. You guys sound like a lame broken record. And you guys don't even use the friggin' term correctly as it doesn't even apply.

Hey, but that's what Limbaugh and Hannity say man, so it must be true!

Man, Ahnold turned out to be Gray Davis on steroids. \
post #24 of 41
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gilsch View Post

Man, Ahnold turned out to be Gray Davis on steroids. \

Can you really blame this in Arnold? Everything he tries gets shot down, it seems.
I think that California really needs to go down in flames, before the voters there start to get a clue.

What are California's problems that lead to this debt? I have never lived there, so these are guesses:

- the proposition system lets voters tie the system up in knots, where they have very few options

- people there protest nuclear reactors, and don't want more air pollution, so they spend more money importing energy from neighboring states. (15c/kWh, vs 9.45 in NC and 9.25 in CO).

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electri...able5_6_a.html

- high cost of living due to it being a desirable place to live, so a high percentage of the population is on government assistance
(is this true)?

- anything else?
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post #25 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

Can you really blame this in Arnold? Everything he tries gets shot down, it seems.
I think that California really needs to go down in flames, before the voters there start to get a clue.

What are California's problems that lead to this debt? I have never lived there, so these are guesses:

- the proposition system lets voters tie the system up in knots, where they have very few options

- people there protest nuclear reactors, and don't want more air pollution, so they spend more money importing energy from neighboring states. (15c/kWh, vs 9.45 in NC and 9.25 in CO).

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electri...able5_6_a.html

- high cost of living due to it being a desirable place to live, so a high percentage of the population is on government assistance
(is this true)?

- anything else?

For Arnold to get elected to his second term, he basically sold out on his lifelong Republican philosophy.... and his problems continue.

Now, just like the Republican Party, California and the political mess that it is must basically be dismantled before it can start any kind of recovery.

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post #26 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzguru View Post

Government imposed redistribution of wealth is not socialist?

I wasn't the one who brought up Canada.

Then we've been "socialists" since the invention of the income tax. Certainly not new now or ever.

Fucking lame.
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post #27 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

Can you really blame this in Arnold? Everything he tries gets shot down, it seems.
I think that California really needs to go down in flames, before the voters there start to get a clue.

What are California's problems that lead to this debt? I have never lived there, so these are guesses:

- the proposition system lets voters tie the system up in knots, where they have very few options

- people there protest nuclear reactors, and don't want more air pollution, so they spend more money importing energy from neighboring states. (15c/kWh, vs 9.45 in NC and 9.25 in CO).

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electri...able5_6_a.html

- high cost of living due to it being a desirable place to live, so a high percentage of the population is on government assistance
(is this true)?

- anything else?

The Party of No has basically gummed up the works so that NOTHING gets done in the state legislature. NOTHING!!!!

And then you have a "fuck you" attitude from the general teabagging population here and they vote "no" on EVERYTHING! So Californian's should be surprised when their favorite schools gets shut down, teachers get fired, fire houses closed, pot holes in streets don't get fixed.

Californians. They want everything. And they don't want to pay for it.
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post #28 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northgate View Post

Californians. They want everything. And they don't want to pay for it.

Substitute "Americans" for "Californians" there and I think you've nailed it.
post #29 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northgate View Post

Then we've been "socialists" since the invention of the income tax. Certainly not new now or ever.

Pretty much, yeah.
post #30 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northgate View Post

The Party of No has basically gummed up the works so that NOTHING gets done in the state legislature. NOTHING!!!!

And then you have a "fuck you" attitude from the general teabagging population here and they vote "no" on EVERYTHING! So Californian's should be surprised when their favorite schools gets shut down, teachers get fired, fire houses closed, pot holes in streets don't get fixed.

Californians. They want everything. And they don't want to pay for it.

"That government is best which governs least." —Henry David Thoreau

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post #31 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by involuntary_serf View Post

Pretty much, yeah.

Then you are in agreement with me that the recent effort to pin the "socialism" label on Democrats is simply a lame marketing effort by the GOP, talk radio and Fox News?

I mean, if we've been "socialists" ever since the creation of the federal income tax, then this term could be applied to EVERY administration since the 1930's. Right? Including Reagan's. And Bush's. And Eisenhower's. Etc.
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post #32 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northgate View Post

Then you are in agreement with me that the recent effort to pin the "socialism" label on Democrats is simply a lame marketing effort by the GOP, talk radio and Fox News?

I mean, if we've been "socialists" ever since the creation of the federal income tax, then this term could be applied to EVERY administration since the 1930's. Right? Including Reagan's. And Bush's. And Eisenhower's. Etc.

Not to pre-empt 'Serf's' reply, but... yes, every administration has had a "socialist" component... I imagine because the needs and wants of the population are so diverse that one point of view must counterbalance to a degree. Personally, I believe the life of a country is similar to the life of a person insofar as there are stages that it must go through to grow and survive.

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post #33 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northgate View Post

Then you are in agreement with me that the recent effort to pin the "socialism" label on Democrats is simply a lame marketing effort by the GOP, talk radio and Fox News?

I mean, if we've been "socialists" ever since the creation of the federal income tax, then this term could be applied to EVERY administration since the 1930's. Right? Including Reagan's. And Bush's. And Eisenhower's. Etc.

I think Spam has it right. To some extent, yes. I don't view socialism as this hard, black and white thing where one can say person X is and person Y isn't. There are degrees. In my view, from FDR to now, FDR would have been the most, Obama is coming close. GWB was certainly no freedom-loving, free-market promoting capitalist. Reagan was probably the least socialistic (though some things he did could be classified in that way). Ironically Carter actually had some more free-market tendencies than a lot of people probably realize. For example a lot of the so-called Reagan deregulation efforts began under Carter's administration.

So it isn't black and white. I would classify actions and policies as more socialistic (or less socialistic). I would classify some things as economically fascist (or not) too.

And some things can be effectively socialistic even if they don't quite appear that way on the surface. A good example might be Obama's near nationalization of the auto industry. I mean he hasn't actually nationalized (in name, in the Hugo Chavez sense of things), but he has effectively done so. Same with AIG.
post #34 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northgate View Post

The Party of No has basically gummed up the works so that NOTHING gets done in the state legislature. NOTHING!!!!

And then you have a "fuck you" attitude from the general teabagging population here and they vote "no" on EVERYTHING! So Californian's should be surprised when their favorite schools gets shut down, teachers get fired, fire houses closed, pot holes in streets don't get fixed.

Californians. They want everything. And they don't want to pay for it.

Actually everyone is broke and taxed to death and even those right wing fringe groups like San Francisco County voted these props down.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Northgate View Post

Then you are in agreement with me that the recent effort to pin the "socialism" label on Democrats is simply a lame marketing effort by the GOP, talk radio and Fox News?

I mean, if we've been "socialists" ever since the creation of the federal income tax, then this term could be applied to EVERY administration since the 1930's. Right? Including Reagan's. And Bush's. And Eisenhower's. Etc.

Well if you understood how the first claim was wrong, then you would understand the label and how it is appropriate. Californians. They want everything and they want EVERYONE ELSE to pay for it.

California, like the Washington Democrats are 100% following the Utopian Socialist model. The push back is only a matter of when instead of if.

The two best reactions I have read to the election are George Will and Carol Platt Liebau.

If, since 1990, state spending increases had been held to the inflation rate plus population growth, the state would have a $15 billion surplus instead of a $42 billion budget deficit, which is larger than the budgets of all but 10 states. Since 1990, the number of state employees has increased by more than a third. In Schwarzenegger's less than six years as governor, per capita government spending, adjusted for inflation, has increased nearly 20 percent.

Liberal orthodoxy has made the state dependent on a volatile source of revenue -- high income tax rates on the wealthy. In 2006, the top 1 percent of earners paid 48 percent of the income taxes. California's income and sales taxes are among the nation's highest and its business conditions among the worst, as measured by 16 variables directly influenced by the Legislature. Unemployment, the nation's fourth-highest, is 11.2 percent.


-------------------------------

If residents of the other 49 states haven't focused on California's plight yet, they should. In a real sense, California has become liberalism's "canary in the coal mine." It is an instructive - and frightening - warning of the toll exacted by the kind of leftism now in vogue in Washington, D.C.........

.......How times change. Forty years ago, California's roads and schools were the envy of the country. Now, of course, highways are jammed, and schools languish near the bottom of nationwide rankings. Hospitals are overcrowded, as are prisons. And contrary to the claims of those on the left, the problem isn't inadequate "investment," i.e., spending. Forty years ago, the state spent $1240 for every man, woman and child in the state, in today's inflation-adjusted dollars. Now, it spends more than double that amount - $3200 per person - even as ordinary citizens' quality of life has plummeted. No wonder voters are poised to reject the politicians' propositions, which would require another $16 billion in tax increases!

What's become apparent from the California debacle is that government is perhaps capable of doing a little bit for everyone, or everything for a few. But liberalism's golden promise of an efficient government that does everything for everyone is nothing but a pipe dream - and an expensive, destructive one at that.

"During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." -George Orwell

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post #35 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by e1618978 View Post

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogsp...sket-case.html

Is Obama trying to push California into bankruptcy?

"One of the biggest stories in politics earlier this year was about California's budget teetering on the edge of a $42-billion deficit abyss. It only staved off insolvency when its legislature ended three months of gridlock to pass a budget with steep tax hikes and spending cuts. Guess what the Obama Administration is doing? It is telling Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger that it will revoke nearly $7 billion in federal stimulus money unless the state restores legislated wage cuts for unionized health-care workers."

What is the most likely outcome for the state? The debt rating agencies are a bunch of idiots, granted, but they all lowered the rating on California bonds a couple months ago... How bad could things get?

I for one hope California goes down the tubers. To the very least it will wipe the smirk of their faces and their smug demeanor as (according to them) progressive and smart (and that goes for the californicans in this forum). It will also destroy their overhyped quality of life and their overinflated real estate.
post #36 of 41

That doesn't mean good government should do nothing. It means when the country is going well, governments do well in leaving things alone. Which means: when things are screwed up they must act.

It is hilarious how people twist somebody else's words to mean what they want.
post #37 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tauron View Post

It means when the country is going well, governments do well in leaving things alone. Which means: when things are screwed up they must act.

No it doesn't mean that at all. Talk about twisting someone's words to mean what you want.
post #38 of 41
And life in Utopia keeps getting better

Gosh I wish I lived in California. It sure sounds like a swell place.
post #39 of 41
Clearly she should have accepted payments in clunkers. That way she would have gotten her money.

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post #40 of 41
I am actually suprised that nobody has brought up the impact of illegal immigration on Claifornia as a part of their bugetary problem. Or does nobody believe that it has any bearing or effect?
NoahJ
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NoahJ
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