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Apple shares of smartphone market jumps more than twofold - Page 4

post #121 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Then you can consider every quarter an anomaly.

You can say that when the 3G iphone was launched and Apple got a big market share --- it was because RIM hadn't launched a new phone model for a year. Since 3 out of the top 5 smart phones come from RIM, it's all about RIM and nothing to do with the iphone.

If we use your logic, then the 4 quarters look like this: July-Sept quarter iphone launches (massive numbers), Oct-Dec quarter (actually really bad quarter for the iphone because they managed to go flat or even go down in sales even with the busy christmas quarter), Jan-March quarter (have you visited a shopping mall during these months, it's dead for everybody), April-June quarter (Apple "ran out" of iphone inventory and have a token amount of market share).

Trends are more important than any one quarter overall.

But it depends on what happened in a particular quarter. As you say, we have to consider what was being released.

Also, is it a selling quarter, or a quiet one? Are most of a company's sales to business and government, or consumers? Who has come out with what? How far away is the next model, and how does that figure into declining sales for the quarter leading up to it?

I like to look at each quarters sales, and look into all of that. a single quarter can tell us something important, depending on the factors involved.

For example with Palm. Sales have been dropping pretty much continuously for a couple of years. Sales are less than a quarter (in dollars) of what they were.

I would expect Palms sales to be less because of the Pre. But as sales have dropped so much anyway, it's really difficult to determine how much of the past 6 months sales drops are due to the Pre, and how much is due to people just abandoning the platform.
post #122 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I don't see the N97 as affecting the iPhone's sales much, if at all.

It's a totally different kind of phone, for a completely different kind of person.

It's big and clumsy. I don't know what the weight is, but it looks as though it's heavier.

It's more for the techie market than for the type of buyers Apple has.

That doesn't mean it won't do ok, but it's like Mercedes and BMW, you would think that a new model of one would take sales from the other but it doesn't. They are two different kinds of people. Buyers of one almost never buy the other.

Yes, I know, you're different, and may have both. but that's very rare.

Hi melgross,

You in many ways as well as one or to others are the moderate voice of reason on this site. You are correct, the N97 is designed for a different market and is in no way an iPhone competitor. I can also say after playing with it, that it is not a clumsy device. The keyboard comes out and locks into place with confidence and is stable. The on screen widgets are very cool to use and this alone blows the iPhone away. The iPhone needs the higher powered processor for sure but Symbian has been optimized over time and is very efficient in its operation.

Apple will never overtake Nokia simply for the fact that I mentioned: not everyone wants an iPhone. Pure and simple, but literally tens of millions if not more want Nokia phones. The fact that the 5800XM did so well, should be an indicator that the N97, while being more expensive, will probably outsell the iPhone.

Yes, I am different in that I have multiple devices. I change phones about every 6 months. MAX! My friends love it as they get great deals and great phones. I gave my daughter my iPhone finally and have to admit, other than the few video shows I purchased I do not miss it. I use my E75 for almost everything, from music player to vid podcast and movie player. If someone can come up with a way to rip DRM from my current iTunes store purchases, I would probably never purchase another iPod/iPhone again.
post #123 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by sapporobabyrtrns View Post

Hi melgross,
I can also say after playing with it, that it is not a clumsy device. The keyboard comes out and locks into place with confidence and is stable.

It may be stable and gives feeling of quality when it is new, but I suspect after a couple of years' abuse, it might look like out of place. One of my friends has a N95, which was introduced as Nokia's flagship product a couple of years ago, but the keyboard is completely unusable after just one year. I doubt iPhone's on-screen keyboard will suffer from such problem.
post #124 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by tawilson View Post

Firstly, I absolutely love Apple and their products.

My iPhone was replaced only the other day because the glue came off the volume rocker switch and it fell off. The phone also had the "dock connector crack" (this had started appearing in August 08 and I bought a 3G on launch day).

Took it to the Apple Store and it was replaced no questions asked. Awesome service.

thats awesome service...

NO ONE IS QUESTIONING THE SERVICE.

we are QUESTIONING THE QUALITY OF THE PRODUCT.

iPhone 3G = HORRIBLE BUILD QUALITY lol

glue comes off a button??!?! LOL crack? LOL thats built real well!
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post #125 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rokken View Post

It may be stable and gives feeling of quality when it is new, but I suspect after a couple of years' abuse, it might look like out of place. One of my friends has a N95, which was introduced as Nokia's flagship product a couple of years ago, but the keyboard is completely unusable after just one year. I doubt iPhone's on-screen keyboard will suffer from such problem.

Maybe it will be stable, maybe not but I also know that the original slider mechanism from Nokia was replaced and a more stable version installed. So who can say.
post #126 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by sapporobabyrtrns View Post

Hi melgross,

You in many ways as well as one or to others are the moderate voice of reason on this site. You are correct, the N97 is designed for a different market and is in no way an iPhone competitor. I can also say after playing with it, that it is not a clumsy device. The keyboard comes out and locks into place with confidence and is stable. The on screen widgets are very cool to use and this alone blows the iPhone away. The iPhone needs the higher powered processor for sure but Symbian has been optimized over time and is very efficient in its operation.

Apple will never overtake Nokia simply for the fact that I mentioned: not everyone wants an iPhone. Pure and simple, but literally tens of millions if not more want Nokia phones. The fact that the 5800XM did so well, should be an indicator that the N97, while being more expensive, will probably outsell the iPhone.

Yes, I am different in that I have multiple devices. I change phones about every 6 months. MAX! My friends love it as they get great deals and great phones. I gave my daughter my iPhone finally and have to admit, other than the few video shows I purchased I do not miss it. I use my E75 for almost everything, from music player to vid podcast and movie player. If someone can come up with a way to rip DRM from my current iTunes store purchases, I would probably never purchase another iPod/iPhone again.

Don't forget though, that we did have a disagreement about those 5800 numbers, which turned out to be 3 million rather than the 13 million that was thought to have been claimed. So it did well, but not startling well.

I'm not so confident that the N97 will do better than the iPhone. I think it will do well in certain areas, and they will certainly sell several million over the course of a year, but the iPhone may sell close to 20 million units this year (2009, inclusive), and possibly (esp if the economy takes off somewhat in 2010) 30 million next year. I don't see the N97 by itself, coming close to those numbers.
post #127 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Don't forget though, that we did have a disagreement about those 5800 numbers, which turned out to be 3 million rather than the 13 million that was thought to have been claimed. So it did well, but not startling well.

I'm not so confident that the N97 will do better than the iPhone. I think it will do well in certain areas, and they will certainly sell several million over the course of a year, but the iPhone may sell close to 20 million units this year (2009, inclusive), and possibly (esp if the economy takes off somewhat in 2010) 30 million next year. I don't see the N97 by itself, coming close to those numbers.

Actually we did not have an argument to much as me posting the original article and then they posted a retraction, and others filled in the blanks. I have no truck with the 3 million. Not bad for a first time device in a first few months of sales.

I think the N97 will do better simply because of the installed customer base. Nokia has millions more customers that will gravitate towards the N97 who have been waiting for it. The iPhone customer base will be basically getting more of the same device with different software and maybe a camera or two.

Either way, I will probably get both so I am supporting them.
post #128 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by sapporobabyrtrns View Post

Actually we did not have an argument to much as me posting the original article and then they posted a retraction, and others filled in the blanks. I have no truck with the 3 million. Not bad for a first time device in a first few months of sales.

I think the N97 will do better simply because of the installed customer base. Nokia has millions more customers that will gravitate towards the N97 who have been waiting for it. The iPhone customer base will be basically getting more of the same device with different software and maybe a camera or two.

Either way, I will probably get both so I am supporting them.

I suppose I should have said disagreement. I just think of the word argument as in; "presenting your argument".

What will be both the unlocked price and the supported price be? Do you know that yet? I remember the N95 here was going for an unholy price as an unlocked phone. I think it was $850 at first.
post #129 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

I suppose I should have said disagreement. I just think of the word argument as in; "presenting your argument".

What will be both the unlocked price and the supported price be? Do you know that yet? I remember the N95 here was going for an unholy price as an unlocked phone. I think it was $850 at first.

I know for sure the N97 will be unlocked. The current price is more or less 600, but it can go up or down depending on the seller. No one here purchases at the Nokia shops. They all go electronic or retail shops.

The iPhone will most likely be locked, but we have an arrangement with our suppliers that if we have to leave the country, and provide orders show so, they will unlock the phone once the remaining balance on a two year contract is paid. I am curious to see how things are going to happen here in Finland as Sonera had a massive wave of iPhone contract cancellations. People are pissed off about having to be locked into a contract. Finns are pretty crazy when it comes to phones.
post #130 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by sapporobabyrtrns View Post

I know for sure the N97 will be unlocked. The current price is more or less 600, but it can go up or down depending on the seller. No one here purchases at the Nokia shops. They all go electronic or retail shops.

The iPhone will most likely be locked, but we have an arrangement with our suppliers that if we have to leave the country, and provide orders show so, they will unlock the phone once the remaining balance on a two year contract is paid. I am curious to see how things are going to happen here in Finland as Sonera had a massive wave of iPhone contract cancellations. People are pissed off about having to be locked into a contract. Finns are pretty crazy when it comes to phones.

Before the iphone was launched in Finland --- didn't you state that you had arrangements to get the unlocking code for your iphone immediately?

People shouldn't be pissed off that they are locked into a contract --- they should be pissed off that there is no such thing as a reasonable ETF cancellation fee to get out of contract. If I have to pay the remaining balance on a two year contract as a ETF in order to get out of the contract, I would be pissed off at that.
post #131 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

Before the iphone was launched in Finland --- didn't you state that you had arrangements to get the unlocking code for your iphone immediately?

People shouldn't be pissed off that they are locked into a contract --- they should be pissed off that there is no such thing as a reasonable ETF cancellation fee to get out of contract. If I have to pay the remaining balance on a two year contract as a ETF in order to get out of the contract, I would be pissed off at that.

Wait. Are you asking a question when you left unanswered my question about being banned or how you know for sure what I am doing with my tethered unlimited data contract is not allowed?

Until you can get around to answering these, do not bother addressing me at all and talk to the hand.
post #132 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by sapporobabyrtrns View Post

Wait. Are you asking a question when you left unanswered my question about being banned or how you know for sure what I am doing with my tethered unlimited data contract is not allowed?

Until you can get around to answering these, do not bother addressing me at all and talk to the hand.

It is impossible to know whether an action is allowed or not --- I am not a lawyer practicing in Finland, neither are you. Just because the carrier isn't cancelling your contract or charging you thousands of dollars on a per kilobyte charge doesn't mean that it's perfectly legal. 99.9999% of us can jaywalk in front of a cop and not get a ticket for jaywalking --- doesn't mean that jaywalking is legal.

Go ahead and log on to your old account and reply on this thread. That will shut me (and the rest of the world) up for good on the topic of whether you were banned or not.
post #133 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by samab View Post

It is impossible to know whether an action is allowed or not --- I am not a lawyer practicing in Finland, neither are you. Just because the carrier isn't cancelling your contract or charging you thousands of dollars on a per kilobyte charge doesn't mean that it's perfectly legal. 99.9999% of us can jaywalk in front of a cop and not get a ticket for jaywalking --- doesn't mean that jaywalking is legal.

Go ahead and log on to your old account and reply on this thread. That will shut me (and the rest of the world) up for good on the topic of whether you were banned or not.

Just realized they have a feature here that I did not think about. It is called: "ignore". Normally I do not use this but being as you are special, I decided to splurge a bit and put you on my ignore list. Bye.....
post #134 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by sapporobabyrtrns View Post

I know for sure the N97 will be unlocked. The current price is more or less 600, but it can go up or down depending on the seller. No one here purchases at the Nokia shops. They all go electronic or retail shops.

The iPhone will most likely be locked, but we have an arrangement with our suppliers that if we have to leave the country, and provide orders show so, they will unlock the phone once the remaining balance on a two year contract is paid. I am curious to see how things are going to happen here in Finland as Sonera had a massive wave of iPhone contract cancellations. People are pissed off about having to be locked into a contract. Finns are pretty crazy when it comes to phones.

Finns can't be so dumb as to lock themselves into a contract, and then say; Hey, I locked myself into a contract, I think I'll cancel.

Or are they? They do know in advance.

I can't believe that the iPhone is the only phone in Finland that has a contract.
post #135 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

Finns can't be so dumb as to lock themselves into a contract, and then say; Hey, I locked myself into a contract, I think I'll cancel.

Or are they? They do know in advance.

I can't believe that the iPhone is the only phone in Finland that has a contract.

The prevailing thought as far as I can gather is that some people, hell many people wanted an iPhone. They did not like the rules of the game from the beginning but realized that to get the phone, they would be stuck with the contract. Sooo, get the phone, cancel the contract and send a nice fat "Screw you" to Sonera in the process. The N97 will be offered in contracted subscriptions. All phones here are but hardly anyone takes them, but the operator (Sonera) will allow you to payout the remainder of a 1 or 2 year contract and then be unlocked.
post #136 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by sapporobabyrtrns View Post

The prevailing thought as far as I can gather is that some people, hell many people wanted an iPhone. They did not like the rules of the game from the beginning but realized that to get the phone, they would be stuck with the contract. Sooo, get the phone, cancel the contract and send a nice fat "Screw you" to Sonera in the process. The N97 will be offered in contracted subscriptions. All phones here are but hardly anyone takes them, but the operator (Sonera) will allow you to payout the remainder of a 1 or 2 year contract and then be unlocked.

That just sounds strange. If they cancel, don't they then have to give the phone back if they haven't had the contract for some minimum time?
post #137 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

That just sounds strange. If they cancel, don't they then have to give the phone back if they haven't had the contract for some minimum time?

Nope. Pay it out and take your phone. Not the iPhone though.
post #138 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by sapporobabyrtrns View Post

Nope. Pay it out and take your phone. Not the iPhone though.

We were talking about the iPhone.
post #139 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

We were talking about the iPhone.

The iPhone is the only phone not part of the payout deal. You are stuck for 2 years.
post #140 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by sapporobabyrtrns View Post

The iPhone is the only phone not part of the payout deal. You are stuck for 2 years.

So earlier, when you said they were getting the iPhone and contract, then canceling the contract to tell Sonora "screw you", they were screwing themselves as well. No contract, no phone, and then, what about the cancellation fee? Or are there no fees there?

So what will they have accomplished? Sonora will correctly think they're loopy.
post #141 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by melgross View Post

So earlier, when you said they were getting the iPhone and contract, then canceling the contract to tell Sonora "screw you", they were screwing themselves as well. No contract, no phone, and then, what about the cancellation fee? Or are there no fees there?

So what will they have accomplished? Sonora will correctly think they're loopy.

Maybe I did not explain correctly. They cancel the contract, but it stays active for the length of the contract. Once 2 years is over the phone is unlocked. There is no cancellation fee, or penalties. Here people flip contracts left and right. No fees, etc... Some people even go so far as to purchase a phone on contract, pay a few months at the lower subsidized fee and then pay it out to get the phone. We did this with the last ambassador that was here. We ordered 10 3G USB modems under the stipulation that we cancel when we need to. It was not a problem.
post #142 of 149
It'd be cheaper to import unlocked ones from Italy or Australia.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sapporobabyrtrns View Post

Maybe I did not explain correctly. They cancel the contract, but it stays active for the length of the contract. Once 2 years is over the phone is unlocked. There is no cancellation fee, or penalties. Here people flip contracts left and right. No fees, etc... Some people even go so far as to purchase a phone on contract, pay a few months at the lower subsidized fee and then pay it out to get the phone. We did this with the last ambassador that was here. We ordered 10 3G USB modems under the stipulation that we cancel when we need to. It was not a problem.
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post #143 of 149
Wow. Reading the first 3 pages of this thread is like watching a skipping DVD. So many repsonses to posts that were then deleted... Heh.

Back on topic, I think Apple has a plan for their "Smartphone" and something that can be sustainable over the next few years, along with Macs. I am starting to think Apple can go reasonably alright into the next 5 years. Beyond that, I'm not sure.

Many feel we're hitting the "bottom" of this recession and 2010 will be the slow but gradual recovery year. Luckily Steve is around at least in an advisory capacity during this recession. When the next down cycle hits, he very likely won't be (not to say that he'll have passed away, just beyond 5 years Steve will have to be much, much less involved, if at all, in Apple, IMO...)
post #144 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post

I think Apple has a plan for their "Smartphone" and something that can be sustainable over the next few years, along with Macs. I am starting to think Apple can go reasonably alright into the next 5 years. Beyond that, I'm not sure.

I agree. More specifically, Apple has a strategy for the iPhone/iPod touch as a platform. All other companies are planning what kind of phones (in terms of hardware features) they need to develop now (based on the technology trends and what kind of components they expect for the future), which price points to target and stuff like that. Apple is trying to figure out what could differentiate them in terms of software / user experience and then look what components they have on their disposal to accomplish this. The rest is tactics: is the flash essential? how many megapixels? which processor? These are less essential things for Apple and they prefer the minimalist approach. For example, a slower processor but perfectly usable software wins against max performance [for the sake of the geek crowd alone] but reduced battery life or larger size. Apple is really good at making compromises IMO.
post #145 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

It'd be cheaper to import unlocked ones from Italy or Australia.

For whom? Sonera?
post #146 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by shadow View Post

I agree. More specifically, Apple has a strategy for the iPhone/iPod touch as a platform. All other companies are planning what kind of phones (in terms of hardware features) they need to develop now (based on the technology trends and what kind of components they expect for the future), which price points to target and stuff like that. Apple is trying to figure out what could differentiate them in terms of software / user experience and then look what components they have on their disposal to accomplish this. The rest is tactics: is the flash essential? how many megapixels? which processor? These are less essential things for Apple and they prefer the minimalist approach. For example, a slower processor but perfectly usable software wins against max performance [for the sake of the geek crowd alone] but reduced battery life or larger size. Apple is really good at making compromises IMO.


Good post. This is exactly what I think Nokia did with their N97. The geeks are screaming that it is underpowered, does not have 8 megapixels, no 3D acceleration. However, after playing with one for about 40 mins or so, I can say the phone is fast, snappy, stable, and will sell quite well. Nokia went back and tweaked the hell out of the code. They will sell the phone and realize where they can tweak it some more and do so, all the while providing great battery life and a stable user experience.
post #147 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by sapporobabyrtrns View Post

This is exactly what I think Nokia did with their N97. The geeks are screaming that it is underpowered, does not have 8 megapixels, no 3D acceleration. However, after playing with one for about 40 mins or so, I can say the phone is fast, snappy, stable, and will sell quite well. Nokia went back and tweaked the hell out of the code. They will sell the phone and realize where they can tweak it some more and do so, all the while providing great battery life and a stable user experience.

The problem for Nokia et al. is that they were heavily marketing the phone hardware. There were zillion of adds pointing out the better sound, the bigger and more colorful screen, more megapixels. Even the 3G was marketed more like a hardware feature than a usability feature. None of the Apple's adds say anything about the hardware. Some of the specs (e.g. processor type and clock speed, RAM) are difficult to find. But if/when other vendors switch their focus to the software they may have a new problem: at least initially, they will pale in comparison to the iPhone.

RIM seems the most notable exception. Palm made a great mistake stressing on performance. Their performance lead may last 2 days only The other Palm focus - multitasking - is usability related, but Apple may kill it the day they feel a real pressure for this and/or the hardware progress will make the current compromise unnecessary*. If the rumors that Apple is doubling the RAM with the next iPhone are true, Apple can introduce or announce a "background apps" feature and kill the Pre out of the gate**. They may decide that Palm is not worth the effort, though.

* for those who still don't get it: iPhone OS CAN and DOES use multitasking. I just checked my iPhone: With only one app launched there are 29 processes running in the background. I am not using the iPod feature or making a call BTW.
** Out of 128 MB ram, 40+ are free after a cold restart and this drops to 2-4 MB pretty soon. Adding another 128 MB leaves room for more apps running in the background.
post #148 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by shadow View Post

The problem for Nokia et al. is that they were heavily marketing the phone hardware. There were zillion of adds pointing out the better sound, the bigger and more colorful screen, more megapixels. Even the 3G was marketed more like a hardware feature than a usability feature. None of the Apple's adds say anything about the hardware. Some of the specs (e.g. processor type and clock speed, RAM) are difficult to find. But if/when other vendors switch their focus to the software they may have a new problem: at least initially, they will pale in comparison to the iPhone.

RIM seems the most notable exception. Palm made a great mistake stressing on performance. Their performance lead may last 2 days only The other Palm focus - multitasking - is usability related, but Apple may kill it the day they feel a real pressure for this and/or the hardware progress will make the current compromise unnecessary*. If the rumors that Apple is doubling the RAM with the next iPhone are true, Apple can introduce or announce a "background apps" feature and kill the Pre out of the gate**. They may decide that Palm is not worth the effort, though.

* for those who still don't get it: iPhone OS CAN and DOES use multitasking. I just checked my iPhone: With only one app launched there are 29 processes running in the background. I am not using the iPod feature or making a call BTW.
** Out of 128 MB ram, 40+ are free after a cold restart and this drops to 2-4 MB pretty soon. Adding another 128 MB leaves room for more apps running in the background.

Right-i-o.

Also mail and iPod functions are multi-tasking right on the iPod/iPhone?
post #149 of 149
Quote:
Originally Posted by shadow View Post

I agree. More specifically, Apple has a strategy for the iPhone/iPod touch as a platform. All other companies are planning what kind of phones (in terms of hardware features) they need to develop now (based on the technology trends and what kind of components they expect for the future), which price points to target and stuff like that. Apple is trying to figure out what could differentiate them in terms of software / user experience and then look what components they have on their disposal to accomplish this. The rest is tactics: is the flash essential? how many megapixels? which processor? These are less essential things for Apple and they prefer the minimalist approach. For example, a slower processor but perfectly usable software wins against max performance [for the sake of the geek crowd alone] but reduced battery life or larger size. Apple is really good at making compromises IMO.

This is it exactly, excellent post. I have no idea if it will insure them market dominance in the mobile space in the years to come, but so far Apple is playing a different game than anyone else.

They decide on what they want the user experience to be first, and everything else derives from that.

Palm looks to be doing something similar, but with their WebOS have decided to go for lightweight and fast now at the expense of being able to do any heavy lifting later.
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