Apple & AT&T have very much to prove, especially now.
CNet ran a video review last week. "Face it the iPhone Sucks". The video review pointed the finger at AT&T and Apple for a poor network in many large cities and has recommended people to wait for the iPhone to go to Verizon.
I know not as many people read CNet as AppleInsider so their public thrashing probably didn't have any impact on those that are considering either making a new purchase or upgrading.
There has been a very high number articles written on the poor upgrade path (Yes they signed a contract but Apple Users feel that they deserve better than a contract).
Apple & AT&T has very much to prove to all but the very Apple Faithful.
You can buy a touch screen at 7-11 these days and their are many very good multi tasking touch phones with great Android and HTC OS's, you clearly see the Pre as the only competitor to Apple.
The market has changed in a year and last I saw, BlackBerry had the number 1,3 & 5 spot. 25% of BlackBerry new contracts are consumer based not business related.
I'd say it's not the same slam dunk as last year and both the phone and OS are minor updates given the curent market.