Mac sales projected to grow 26% in 2010, outpacing PC market

Posted:
in General Discussion edited January 2014
Apple is predicted to continue its gains on the rest of the PC market in 2010, with Mac sales projected to grow by 26 percent while the industry is forecast to see a 16 percent year-over-year increase.



If the predictions of Robert Cihra, analyst with Caris & Company, prove true, it would give Apple a total 4 percent market share for the 2010 calendar year. Cihra goes into great detail on his analysis in a note issued to investors Thursday morning. Due to Apple controlling its own product cycles, as well as pricing, he believes Mac units will grow at a rate of 1.6 times faster than the entire PC market. On average, the Mac has outpaced the PC market as a whole by 1.8 times over the last 12 quarters.



With just a 4 percent projected total market share in 2010, the Mac still has "considerable headroom" for gains, Cihra said. He believes the company is still the single-best stock investors can buy in the PC market.



"As the most (in fact only) innovative, highest-value (hardware+software) and profitable PC vendor, we estimate Apple having earned a Mac [average selling price] of $1,289 in CY09, down 10% [year over year] but still representing a premium of 1.8x vs. its Wintel peers," the report said. "Even more meaningful, we estimate Apple Macs generating a gross profit-per-unit of nearly $340, which is 2-3x our estimate for its peers, keeping us focused on AAPL as the single best PC market investment."



Caris & Company reiterated its recommendation to buy AAPL stock, and has maintained a price target of $260.







The report also noted a "brutal" erosion of the PC average selling price in 2009, dropping an estimated 16 percent year over year. Portable machines alone were said to have dropped more than 20 percent in price, driven by the popularity of low-cost netbooks.



In this respect, major PC manufacturers like HP are finally catching up with a trend originally achieved by Apple way back in the second quarter of 2007: notebook prices are dropping below desktop prices, as portable machines have become the new "mainstream" PC. Cihra said the first quarter of 2009 was the first time that HP's notebook average selling price dropped below that of its desktops, nearly two years after they had flipped for Apple.







Cihra expects the overall PC market to increase between 15 and 20 percent in 2010, with his current forecast at 16 percent. The report said that signs of turnaround in the PC market are showing, though the economy remains the wildcard in forecasting PC sales for next year.



In September, Apple again significantly outpaced the rest of the PC market, growing 16.4 percent globally year over year, while the market as a whole grew 2.3 percent. Due to Apple's premium-priced products, the company has a worldwide revenue share of about 10 percent, while its market share hovers just north of 4 percent.



Apple has been projected to sell 2.9 million Macs for the final, fourth quarter of 2009. The company's September 2009 quarter proved to be its best ever, with sales of 3 million Macs helping the company's profits rise more than 46 percent.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 34
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,743member
    As the most (in fact only) innovative, highest-value (hardware+software) and profitable PC vendor



    Nice to see someone gets it.
  • Reply 2 of 34
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    I think it should grow 36%- his number is too conservative.
  • Reply 3 of 34
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,956member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by teckstud View Post


    I think it should grow 36%- his number is too conservative.



    And all without matte screen options, too.
  • Reply 4 of 34
    Now if they would only offer the matte display on the 13" macbook pro, I could join the party and buy one!



    The 15" is just too big for the amount of travelling I do with my laptop.
  • Reply 5 of 34
    brucepbrucep Posts: 2,823member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by debusoh View Post


    Now if they would only offer the matte display on the 13" macbook pro, I could join the party and buy one!



    The 15" is just too big for the amount of travelling I do with my laptop.



    so sad
  • Reply 6 of 34
    mactelmactel Posts: 1,275member
    So we may see a quarter with 4 million Macs sold in 2010. Probably Q4 2010.



    The rest of the world needs to get on the Mac fever train.
  • Reply 7 of 34
    zunxzunx Posts: 620member
    The day Mac reaches 25% worldwide market share, Windows will be history in three years. The horrible Windows experience is maintained by inertia and ignorance.
  • Reply 8 of 34
    They'd grow by one more sale right here if they'd hurry up and introduce a quad core MacBook Pro dammit! I need a new computer!\
  • Reply 9 of 34
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by debusoh View Post


    Now if they would only offer the matte display on the 13" macbook pro, I could join the party and buy one!



    The 15" is just too big for the amount of travelling I do with my laptop.



    I hear you. I too wait and wait and wait............................................zz zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
  • Reply 10 of 34
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,166member
    Shouldn't "...outpacing PC market" read _ "...continue outpacing PC market"?



    Meanwhile ... A PC die hard friend of mine upon reading the latest Black Screen issue was affecting XP, Vista AND the newly claimed 'safer' 7 told me that was the last straw and ordered a 27" iMac i7.
  • Reply 11 of 34
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by digitalclips View Post


    Meanwhile ... A PC die hard friend of mine upon reading the latest Black Screen issue was affecting XP, Vista AND the newly claimed 'safer' 7 told me that was the last straw and ordered a 27" iMac i7.



    Hopefully his i7 won't be DOA, like a handful of them have been, because then he's screwed.
  • Reply 12 of 34
    teckstudteckstud Posts: 6,476member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gmcalpin View Post


    Hopefully his i7 won't be DOA, like a handful of them have been, because then he's screwed.



  • Reply 13 of 34
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gmcalpin View Post


    Hopefully his i7 won't be DOA, like a handful of them have been, because then he's screwed.



    Supposedly you can return them.
  • Reply 14 of 34
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Due to Apple controlling its own product cycles, as well as pricing, he believes Mac units will grow at a rate of 1.6 times faster than the entire PC market. On average, the Mac has outpaced the PC market as a whole by 1.8 times over the last 12 quarters.



    OOO so Apple will be the company example of how socialism make an economy better! YAY! I love socialism!
  • Reply 15 of 34
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,660member
    Apple is an example of socialism?
  • Reply 16 of 34
    MacProMacPro Posts: 18,166member
    Off topic slightly ... But could widen gap even more if Apple have these planned. Just seen on BBC web site ... Intel unveils 48-core cloud computing silicon chip ... I hope Apple jump on these for new Mac Pros. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8392392.stm
  • Reply 17 of 34
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Quadra 610 View Post


    Supposedly you can return them.



    of course you can return it. Or if you have an Apple store nearby you can possibly get it fixed. And you should try. Because without those Bar appts, Apple doesn't get the data needed to fix the problem as quick. They would have to wait for the machines to come back and then strip them down and test them. The Bar gets the data in a lot faster. So faster turnaround on analysis and a fix.



    Plus given the number of those 'dead' i7s that had screen damage that might have been partially, if not totally, the fault of poor handling, perhaps the DOA is due to a totally replaceable part being dislodged or broken. I for one would rather take a custom machine into a store and find out that the problem was the ram being loosened during delivery, or a connector dislodged, or even have broken glass replaced over a working screen with no dead pixels etc than deal with the hassle of boxing the whole thing up to ship back and waiting another 1-2 weeks for them to build me a new machine and ship it. Especially if it is possible the new one could also be mistreated and come busted. Which if the carriers are to any degree to blame is a risk.
  • Reply 18 of 34
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    Apple is an example of socialism?



    In the new political dictionary, everything you don't like for any reason is an example of socialism, or fascism, or both.
  • Reply 19 of 34
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,660member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    In the new political dictionary, everything you don't like for any reason is an example of socialism, or fascism, or both.



    Yeah, I was kinda afraid it was something like that.
  • Reply 20 of 34
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    In the new political dictionary, everything you don't like for any reason is an example of socialism, or fascism, or both.



    Sadly, this is true.
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