iPhone 4 launch could sell 1.5 million, FaceTime seen as key driver

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
The iPhone 4 launch is expected to far exceed last year's debut of the iPhone 3GS, as Apple could see as much as 1.5 million units sold, with users said to be most excited about the addition of FaceTime.



Piper Jaffray



Analyst Gene Munster said that his firm noted lines two-to-three times longer than previous iPhone launches, and 9 of 20 stores surveyed were sold out of the handset by Thursday afternoon. Most of the remaining stores, he said, expected to be sold out by the end of the day.



Munster has estimated sales of 9.5 million units in both the June and September quarter. Given the strong launch and the fact that Apple has already announced that there were 600,000 iPhone 4 preorders on day one, he said he is increasingly confident in his estimates.



"Our best guess is that Apple reserves about half of the units for pre-orders (mail delivery and in-store pick up) and half for in-store purchases (walk-ins), implying total sales for the launch (including the 600k already announced for online and first three days) of between 1.0m to 1.5m," he wrote. "This would be the biggest iPhone launch (compare to 3GS at 1m)."



Last year, Apple sold over one million of the iPhone 3GS in its first three days. That, at the time, was the strongest debut for Apple's smartphone, but it is widely expected to be eclipsed by the iPhone 4.



UBS Investment Research



Based on a survey of over 100 customers outside of two Apple stores in New York City on Thursday, analyst Maynard Um found that 68 percent of respondents said FaceTime video chat is the most attractive new feature of the iPhone 4. Another 24 percent said the new HD capabilities, including 720p HD video recording and the new iMovie for iPhone, were the main selling point.



Among those surveyed, 64 percent said they planned to buy the high-end $299 32GB iPhone 4. That's more than the just-over-half that said they were getting the 32GB iPhone 3GS a year ago. Most who opted for the 32GB model said they were doing so because of higher capacity demands for HD video capabilities.



"As supply catches up with demand, our 9.8mm unit estimate for the September quarter is likely to prove conservative given the accelerated international launch," Um said. The handset launched in the U.S., France, Germany, the U.K., and Japan on Thursday. Apple has announced that the iPhone 4 international launch will ramp up to 87 total countries by September, its fastest global deployment of a new handset.



The UBS survey also found that 80 percent of respondents were upgrading to the iPhone 4 from the iPhone 3GS or iPhone 3G. Among switchers, 7 percent were transitioning from BlackBerry, 4 percent from Nokia, 3 percent from HTC, and 2 percent from Samsung.



Most -- 78 percent -- said they currently owned a Mac, another 33 percent owned an iPad, and 30 percent own an iPod touch. All of those surveyed (100 percent) said they own some type of iPod from Apple.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 56
    mkeathmkeath Posts: 60member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


    Despite the yellow screens, despite the blocking of 3G reception when held in the left hand, despite iOS having a whopping 64 vulnerabilities fixed, despite all the glass, despite AT&T games and high prices...



    ...isn't the Reality Distortion Field just simply amazing?



    Nice edit.



    Quote:

    Despite the yellow screens, despite the blocking of 3G reception when held in the left hand, despite iOS having a whopping 64 vulnerabilities fixed, despite all the glass, despite AT&T games...



    Despite all those negatives, the iPhone will still sell 1.5 million upon launch.



    I say Apple products are a impulsive luxury sale items and people don't believe me.



    I don't see how they can think not.



    Bottom line is that the iPhone is a good phone and Apple is really good at marketing. Hopefully Android continues to keep up so we can see some good competition.
  • Reply 2 of 56
    In March of 2006 I wrote:

    "Don't know how to start a poll, but I can tell you selling half of my stock is not what comes to mind at this point in AAPL history. How about doubling or trippling your investment.



    future AAPL price = (market cap MSFT + market cap Nokia +market cap DELL)/outstanding AAPL shares = (262.00 billion + 101.33 billion + 49.97 billion)/881.62 million = 468.79



    A little optimistic, but hey..."



    These days that calculation looks realistic....
  • Reply 3 of 56
    jerseymacjerseymac Posts: 408member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


    Despite the yellow screens, despite the blocking of 3G reception when held in the left hand, despite iOS having a whopping 64 vulnerabilities fixed, despite all the glass, despite AT&T games and high prices...



    ...isn't the Reality Distortion Field just simply amazing?



    It sure is! I almost bought one myself. Then I dropped 5 calls on my 3G and remembered why I must go back to Verizon. Sorry Steve.
  • Reply 4 of 56
    I really like that technology is improving communications in some ways. To me having all of this capability on a telephone is unnecessary. I'd rather have an iPad with all the bells and whistles and have a bare bones telephone that costs very little money with a very low monthly rate.



    To me the biggest problem with cell phones is the quality of the calls. Lets make some awesome low cost phones that cost $20 per month that have nothing more than the ability to make great clear calls no matter where they are in the country. I don't think that exists in the USA.



    Yes I'm really one of the few people who don't want a smart phone. I don't expect what I want to ever be made or offered these days. The benefit of the smart phones is that they are the only reason telecommunication companies are improving their networks. If there were no emerging market for more data plans and greater profits, the cell phone industry would still be the same as it was in the early 1980s. The networks were so sparse then that cell phones were rare.
  • Reply 5 of 56
    mkeathmkeath Posts: 60member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Smallwheels View Post


    I really like that technology is improving communications in some ways. To me having all of this capability on a telephone is unnecessary. I'd rather have an iPad with all the bells and whistles and have a bare bones telephone that costs very little money with a very low monthly rate.



    To me the biggest problem with cell phones is the quality of the calls. Lets make some awesome low cost phones that cost $20 per month that have nothing more than the ability to make great clear calls no matter where they are in the country. I don't think that exists in the USA.



    Yes I'm really one of the few people who don't want a smart phone. I don't expect what I want to ever be made or offered these days. The benefit of the smart phones is that they are the only reason telecommunication companies are improving their networks. If there were no emerging market for more data plans and greater profits, the cell phone industry would still be the same as it was in the early 1980s. The networks were so sparse then that cell phones were rare.



    This problem lies with the carriers. They have to support the technology before handset manufacturers can improve anything on their end.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


    Shortly one will get all the new iPhone features on other phones from other carriers, there is only so far one can go and do with a phone.



    Competition will set in and a price war will ensue. Carriers will have to compete and lower their prices once again.



    Yeah, I agree. That said, the features introduced with iOS4 and the iPhone 4 that are not on Android are few and far between. And Android has features with Froyo that iOS4 does not. This next year will be an interesting one with Gingerbread coming out in December (according to Google) and the possibility of a Verizon iPhone.
  • Reply 6 of 56
    jmmxjmmx Posts: 341member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    "Our best guess is that Apple reserves about half of the units for pre-orders (mail delivery and in-store pick up) and half for in-store purchases (walk-ins), implying total sales for the launch (including the 600k already announced for online and first three days) of between 1.0m to 1.5m," he wrote. "This would be the biggest iPhone launch (compare to 3GS at 1m)."



    That 600,000 was only Apple + ATT in USA. That leaves Radio Shack, Best Buy, and the other countries. Should easily bring that up to 2M - perhaps even more. IMHO.
  • Reply 7 of 56
    orlandoorlando Posts: 601member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    ... with users said to be most excited about the addition of FaceTime.



    Until they discover it only works between two iPhone4s and only when both parties are using WiFi. Until this changes, I cannot see FaceTime really taking off.
  • Reply 8 of 56
    jmmxjmmx Posts: 341member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


    Despite the yellow screens, despite the blocking of 3G reception when held in the left hand, despite iOS having a whopping 64 vulnerabilities fixed, despite all the glass, despite AT&T games and high prices...



    ...isn't the Reality Distortion Field just simply amazing?



    Is Droid any better? Note, the vulnerabilities have been fixed. We do not yet know if the reception is a serious problem or not, ditto the yellow.



    high prices...

    What about all the free apps in the app store? Are those priced too high? Are Android phones significantly cheaper? Have any iPhone apps dialed up pay-to-call numbers and run up execess charges like on Android phones?



    Let's just wait for the satisfaction data to come out and see if iPhone users still rate them at 90% extremely satisfied beating the competition by far.
  • Reply 9 of 56
    elrothelroth Posts: 1,201member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jmmx View Post


    Is Droid any better? Note, the vulnerabilities have been fixed. We do not yet know if the reception is a serious problem or not, ditto the yellow.



    high prices...

    What about all the free apps in the app store? Are those priced too high? Are Android phones significantly cheaper? Have any iPhone apps dialed up pay-to-call numbers and run up execess charges like on Android phones?



    Let's just wait for the satisfaction data to come out and see if iPhone users still rate them at 90% extremely satisfied beating the competition by far.



    Don't forget that many (if not most) of the Android phones sold in the last year were 2-for-1 promotions.
  • Reply 10 of 56
    postulantpostulant Posts: 1,270member
    1.5 million? Certainly possible.



    - posted from my flawless iPhone 4
  • Reply 11 of 56
    nasseraenasserae Posts: 3,152member
    I still say two millions on launch weekend (24th to 27th). This new iPhone is big upgrade from last version.
  • Reply 12 of 56
    danielswdanielsw Posts: 905member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpotOn View Post


    Despite the yellow screens, despite the blocking of 3G reception when held in the left hand, despite iOS having a whopping 64 vulnerabilities fixed, despite all the glass, despite AT&T games and high prices...



    ...isn't the Reality Distortion Field just simply amazing?



    YOU'RE the distortion in the field for dwelling on the negatives!



    People happily stand in lines across the planet because of the positives in the product and for the opportunities to share in something special which promises to enhance their lives.
  • Reply 13 of 56
    postulantpostulant Posts: 1,270member
    Man, this thing flies...





  • Reply 14 of 56
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,377member
    ... is that the iPhone 4 is the only recent smart phone that gets dropped???



    I guess Apple just needs to include a Valcro case and gloves with each iPhone!



    .
  • Reply 15 of 56
    dick applebaumdick applebaum Posts: 12,377member
    .



    Oh, I saw Bill O'Reilly making a FaceTime call to Glen Beck!



    .
  • Reply 16 of 56
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Apple is trying to do an end run around the cell companies since they don't like to work with or partner with anyone. They are trying to leverage their dominance in the hand held market to perpetuate the adoption of free publicly owned wifi in every city. That way people will no longer need to use the phone as a cell phone but depend solely on Apple for all their communication needs using FaceTime.
  • Reply 17 of 56
    cubertcubert Posts: 728member
    I can't wait to get to an Apple store and play with one. No upgrade for me though. I got my 3GS last August and don't feel the need to upgrade yet. The only thing (and I mean only) that I wish Apple would do is release a 64 GB version. Maybe later this year.
  • Reply 18 of 56
    bettiebluebettieblue Posts: 294member
    "Based on a survey of over 100 customers outside of two Apple stores "



    Ummm yeah that is not a BIAS survey.



    Went to bestbuy today at lunch to get a memory stick for a camera, and there were 3 or 4 iTard's lined up to get a blotchy, yellow screened iPhone 4.0.....my precious....my preeeeeeccciouuuus.....must have...must HAVE!!!!!!
  • Reply 19 of 56
    brucepbrucep Posts: 2,823member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by bettieblue View Post


    "Based on a survey of over 100 customers outside of two Apple stores "



    Ummm yeah that is not a BIAS survey.



    Went to bestbuy today at lunch to get a memory stick for a camera, and there were 3 or 4 iTard's lined up to get a blotchy, yellow screened iPhone 4.0.....my precious....my preeeeeeccciouuuus.....must have...must HAVE!!!!!!



    apple is doomed
  • Reply 20 of 56
    postulantpostulant Posts: 1,270member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by brucep View Post


    apple is doomed



    lol... Apple's success infuriates them. You have to admit, it's kinda funny to watch.
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