iPad 'slightly cannibalizing' Apple's own low-end MacBooks - report

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Strong sales of the iPad are expected to have a "slight" negative impact on Mac sales, particularly on the low-end notebook models from Apple, supply chain sources have indicated.



Analyst Shaw Wu with Kaufman Bros. said in a note to investors Monday morning that checks with suppliers have revealed that the iPad availability is better than expected. This boost in supplies is said to be due to improved availability of screens.



However, he said overseas suppliers have also indicated that the iPad appears to be "slightly cannibalizing" low-end MacBook sales. Otherwise, Apple is poised for a strong quarter in Mac sales, with numbers indicating the company could sell a record 3.8 million in the September quarter.



Wu has adjusted his sales figures accordingly, and now expects iPad sales to blow past the Mac. He has forecast Apple to sell 5.7 million iPads in the September quarter, up from his previous prediction of 3.6 million. And he has also slightly reduced his expected Mac sales to 3.8 million, down from 3.9 million, due to the apparent cannibalization of low-end MacBooks.



Last week, Morgan Stanley said it believes the iPad has consumed as much as 25 percent of notebook PC sales since Apple's touchscreen tablet was introduced in April. Year-over-year sales of notebooks have seen a sharp decline in recent months.



But previous reports suggested that the iPad was not cannibalizing Apple's own Mac sales, as shipments continue to grow. And even with Wu's reduced prediction for September Mac sales, Apple is still on pace for a record quarter, even with supposed "cannibalization." This as notebook sales in the rest of the market have declined.



Wu also expects Apple to sell a record 11.5 million iPhones in the quarter, along with 9.5 million iPods. He also increased his gross margin prediction to 37.5 percent, up from 37.2 percent, due to favorable component costs.



Kaufman Bros. has increased its 12-month price target for AAPL stock to $374, up from $350.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 100
    I believe that Apple is making OSX 100% finger friendly and that it will soon discontinue the wifi only ipad. Next I believe that Apple will release ipads that are as technically strong as the macbook. It is inevitable IMHO. Apple will turn the macbook into a slate. I can feel it. Then the pro models will get skated. IMHO!!! But what the hell do I know?
  • Reply 2 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by maccherry View Post


    I believe that Apple is making OSX 100% finger friendly and that it will soon discontinue the wifi only ipad. Next I believe that Apple will release ipads that are as technically strong as the macbook. It is inevitable IMHO. Apple will turn the macbook into a slate. I can feel it. Then the pro models will get skated. IMHO!!! But what the hell do I know?



    You're getting warmer. Very warm, actually.
  • Reply 3 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by maccherry View Post


    But what the hell do I know?



    You know that you like the iPad. DELETED
  • Reply 4 of 100
    nkhmnkhm Posts: 928member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by maccherry View Post


    I believe that Apple is making OSX 100% finger friendly and that it will soon discontinue the wifi only ipad. Next I believe that Apple will release ipads that are as technically strong as the macbook. It is inevitable IMHO. Apple will turn the macbook into a slate. I can feel it. Then the pro models will get skated. IMHO!!! But what the hell do I know?



    You're talking very, very long term. Apple aren't planning to drop OSX like it's some evil scheme. Most traditional computing processes need a full operating system with precise and tactile input - maybe OS XI will start to show a fusion of touch and traditional OS, but it's all in the realms of the future, not short term plans.



    I think some sort of touch capability may be introduced to the laptop range, this would be extremely useful for some limited tasks, but it's not ready to replace the keyboard and trackpad/mouse just yet...



    Until full tactile feedback is somehow created on a touch screen keyboard, the keyboard is essential for any serious data input/typing. That's quite a way off just yet...
  • Reply 5 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nkhm View Post




    I think some sort of touch capability may be introduced to the laptop range, this would be extremely useful for some limited tasks, but it's not ready to replace the keyboard and trackpad/mouse just yet...








    What is your opinion of using an iPad with a dock and keyboard?



    It always struck me that without a mouse for positioning a cursor, it would be a total PITA. It is bad enough moving your entire arm a couple of inches to grab the mouse on a regular computer. Keyboard shortcuts are available for many common tasks on real computers, making this unnecessary for users who know what they are doing.



    But with the iPad, you need to move your entire arm, lifting it up into the air, reaching forward to touch the elevated (hopefully, eye level) screen. I can't imagine that is anything other than a horrible user experience.
  • Reply 6 of 100
    In order for the iPad to remain a viable handheld device it needs to avoid the trap of trying to be all things to all people. I don't doubt that in time the iPad will become more powerful, capable of doing more, etc. but the basic concept of a very light, easy to transport device cannot be altered.



    There is a way around this, however. Make a very nimble portable device with limited functionality similar to the iPad but also offer a docking option that provides the functionality of current laptops. The dock could, for example, provide far more storage and connectivity. In other words, use the CPU in the iPad as the basis for a device that is either exceedingly portable, if limited, or tied to a sophisticated docking element that transforms the device basically into a desktop unit. To make this viable, though, the processing power in the iPad needs to be far better than what is possible at this time. That's a few years away.



    In regards to MacBook sales and the iPad, my theory is that Mac sales will not suffer as much as one might imagine because the iPad will help win over converts to Apple. Some will buy an iPad instead of a MacBook but then there are others who would not have considered an Apple computer who maybe spend $500 on an iPad and enjoy using it so much that when they need a more powerful computer, they put Apple products on their shopping list. It's other computer makers who need to worry.
  • Reply 7 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by maccherry View Post


    I believe that Apple is making OSX 100% finger friendly and that it will soon discontinue the wifi only ipad. Next I believe that Apple will release ipads that are as technically strong as the macbook. It is inevitable IMHO. Apple will turn the macbook into a slate. I can feel it. Then the pro models will get skated. IMHO!!! But what the hell do I know?



    This is a guess which will never happen.The i pad is nice to hold and use but it will never replace the MBP line.Think about it
  • Reply 8 of 100
    I'd love to see a MacBook equivalent iPad running full OS X. Granted OS X would need to be updated to support a proper multi-touch interface, but I'd be very surprised if Apple didn't already have something already on the shelf ready to go.



    I agree that we're a good few years off seeing tablet style devices overtaking the MBP lineup, but I very much see the boundaries between the MB and iPad blurring to the point where the MB could be done away with.
  • Reply 9 of 100
    nkhmnkhm Posts: 928member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Newtron View Post


    What is your opinion of using an iPad with a dock and keyboard?



    It always struck me that without a mouse for positioning a cursor, it would be a total PITA. It is bad enough moving your entire arm a couple of inches to grab the mouse on a regular computer. Keyboard shortcuts are available for many common tasks on real computers, making this unnecessary for users who know what they are doing.



    But with the iPad, you need to move your entire arm, lifting it up into the air, reaching forward to touch the elevated (hopefully, eye level) screen. I can't imagine that is anything other than a horrible user experience.



    Using the pad with a dock and keyboard is pointless - just use your desktop, if yr in need of a proper keyboard, you're also in need of a little processing power.



    If you think moving you arm a couple of inches to move your mouse is too much to ask, I'd seriously worry about your health - it's not exactly the most taxing of things!



    The iPad is a great user experience. In the old days people had these things called writing pads, and they'd use their pen - often moving the pen around and having to lift their arm as they wrote. Imagine that, but without the pen... It's a great, very comfortable user experience. Keyboard shortcuts are available, so are touch gestures, neither replace the need for a keyboard to type a few thousand lines of code!
  • Reply 10 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpinDrift View Post


    I'd love to see a MacBook equivalent iPad running full OS X. Granted OS X would need to be updated to support a proper multi-touch interface, but I'd be very surprised if Apple didn't already have something already on the shelf ready to go.



    I agree that we're a good few years off seeing tablet style devices overtaking the MBP lineup, but I very much see the boundaries between the MB and iPad blurring to the point where the MB could be done away with.



    osx being fully finger friendly? doubtful. Mac OS X will evolve as being finger compatible, but what your going to see is app/application pairings, instead of 'appifying' mac applications.



    That's why I don't think you'll ever see an 'iPad environment' on a macbook. They'd rather have you move to a iMac/iPad combo than try to give you an OSX environment on a 'pad'. They are selling hardware, and software. It makes more sense to start seeing a 'home base' caching and backing up for your iPad, than it is to make your iMac (which is closer to an iPad than a Macbook IMO.



    So, look for Pages for iPad being a 'lite' version of Pages for Mac. See application developers develop input and viewing tools for iOS, but selling big apps on the Mac (I can't see Mathematica on an iPad, but I could see a mathematica 'viewer', or a simple 'input tool' for the iPad).



    The key meme here is that the iPad is the perfect tool for creating and deploying widgets, thin-ish clients for connected people and organizations. For hard core crunching. a MBP will still be the tool of choice for mobile people.



    As for MacBooks... I see that as the 'I dunno' system, that will be the platform that will evolve to be more MBP (power), but likely to a an 11" diagonal. to pair up with MacPro users who want iPad like portability, with OSX power.



    Investment wise... Apple is best served with

    iMac

    MBP 13 15 17

    MB 11

    Mac Mini Server

    Mac Pro

    TrackPad

    ====

    appleTV (with apps, airplay, and airtunes)

    ====

    iPad 7 9

    iPhone

    iPod Touch

    iPod Nano

    ====

    Time Capsule & Server





    That way your average home will have 2-5 devices in it for a median retail of $2500 plus apps



    Get in 100,000,000 homes = 2.5TrillionUSD ;-) Not a bad 5 year plan.
  • Reply 11 of 100
    nkhmnkhm Posts: 928member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gerald apple View Post


    This is a guess which will never happen.The i pad is nice to hold and use but it will never replace the MBP line.Think about it



    The iPad in it's current form won't. A little imagination maybe? Open the macbook pro to be presented with two displays, one in the bottom half, one in the top half. The lower half display presents the input model appropriate to the current function - keyboard, trackpad, midi interface controller etc. etc. I can see this being an amazing thing once full tactile feedback can be achieved.
  • Reply 12 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nkhm View Post




    If you think moving you arm a couple of inches to move your mouse is too much to ask, I'd seriously worry about your health - it's not exactly the most taxing of things!






    Don't worry about my health. Instead, worry about all the wasted effort Apple put into devising the useless keyboard shortcuts utilized by us sick, lazy jerky users.



    You are obviously NOT a power user. Just keep using that mouse to click icons. It is faster than learning keyboard shortcuts - for certain types of people.
  • Reply 13 of 100
    In case some of you have forgotten, Apple continues to *develop* the iPad. The iPad of 3 years from now will be a little more advanced than the current model. A little imagination plus a visit from Captain Obvious, folks.
  • Reply 14 of 100
    A senior Adobe product executive in a reseller conference many years ago in NYC made a singular point, in a couple of different ways:





    "Kill your own children"





    "Figure out what business can hurt you, and become those businesses first"






    Not sue if Adobe themselves is following this advice all the time, but it is an elegant and effective way to think, and Apple I think has known this for a long time.
  • Reply 15 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nkhm View Post


    You're talking very, very long term. Apple aren't planning to drop OSX like it's some evil scheme. Most traditional computing processes need a full operating system with precise and tactile input - maybe OS XI will start to show a fusion of touch and traditional OS, but it's all in the realms of the future, not short term plans.



    I think some sort of touch capability may be introduced to the laptop range, this would be extremely useful for some limited tasks, but it's not ready to replace the keyboard and trackpad/mouse just yet...



    Until full tactile feedback is somehow created on a touch screen keyboard, the keyboard is essential for any serious data input/typing. That's quite a way off just yet...



    If you cast your mind (and your eye) back to (the video of) Scott Forstall's first presentation of iOS (then known as iPhone OS) when the SDK was first introduced, you will notice (and he said so) that OS X and iOS share several layers in common, the only difference occurring at the top (UI) layer, viz Cocoa on the Macs and Cocoa Touch on the iOS devices.



    From bottom to top, the other layers are identical:
    • CORE OS: Kernel, Memory, Processes, TCP/IP, Sockets etc

    • CORE SERVICES - SQL Lite, Location Services, Preference Settings

    • MEDIA - Animation, OpenGL, OpenAL, Audio / Video

    • COCOA TOUCH (iOS) / COCOA (OS X)

    What is clearly happening and will continue is that elements of Cocoa Touch are making their way into Cocoa proper as Apple's customers become used to the idiom through their iOS devices.
  • Reply 16 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by airmanchairman View Post


    ... What is clearly happening and will continue is that elements of Cocoa Touch are making their way into Cocoa proper as Apple's customers become used to the idiom through their iOS devices.



    Which elements of iOS/CocoaTouch have made their way into OS X/Cocoa, vs. the other way around?
  • Reply 17 of 100
    iPad might be cannibalizing low end notebook sales a little, but it is bolstering iMac sales with it's halo effect. IPad's strengths are in lightweight convenient consumption tasks, and not in doing most real productivity tasks. A proper notebook still does far better at those, and a proper desktop even more so. The combination of an iPad and a Mac is best... and if you don't need to do your heavy lifting on the move, then an iPad + iMac is a compelling combination. The important point is that with this combination of options, Apple addresses a wider set of users than with desktops or notebooks alone. No one product ideally suits all users, no matter how computationally powerful it may get in the next few years. Low end Mac notebooks might be selling a little less, but they are still selling to users that need them. Overall Apple's market sales have grown substantially.
  • Reply 18 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Programmer View Post


    IPad's strengths are in lightweight convenient consumption tasks, and not in doing most real productivity tasks. A proper notebook still does far better at those,



    Hell, a modern netbook still does far better at those, for less than half the price.
  • Reply 19 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Programmer View Post


    iPad might be cannibalizing low end notebook sales a little, but it is bolstering iMac sales with it's halo effect. IPad's strengths are in lightweight convenient consumption tasks, and not in doing most real productivity tasks. A proper notebook still does far better at those, and a proper desktop even more so. The combination of an iPad and a Mac is best... and if you don't need to do your heavy lifting on the move, then an iPad + iMac is a compelling combination. The important point is that with this combination of options, Apple addresses a wider set of users than with desktops or notebooks alone. No one product ideally suits all users, no matter how computationally powerful it may get in the next few years. Low end Mac notebooks might be selling a little less, but they are still selling to users that need them. Overall Apple's market sales have grown substantially.



    The best part is that the iPad is so affordable meaning you don't have to choose one over another. Owning an iPad plus any one of a MacBook, Mac Pro, iMac, Mac Mini, is viable for most budgets.



    If portability and power are important, go iPad+MacBook, otherwise use the iPad for portable scenarios and a desktop, be it iMac, Mac Mini or Mac Pro, to do work that requires power.



    You can combine an iPad with a PC but once you see how well Apple products work, there is a likelihood that many will consider an all-Apple set-up.
  • Reply 20 of 100
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by maccherry View Post


    I believe that Apple is making OSX 100% finger friendly and that it will soon discontinue the wifi only ipad. Next I believe that Apple will release ipads that are as technically strong as the macbook. It is inevitable IMHO. Apple will turn the macbook into a slate. I can feel it. Then the pro models will get skated. IMHO!!! But what the hell do I know?



    Well, given that there is zero evidence to support your conjecture, I would say, not much at all.



    Some number of people will give up traditional desktop/notebook computers (desktops) for tablets. Input devices for desktops may, over time, switch from physical keyboards/mice to a touch device that works as a virtual keyboard, trackpad, custom input device, but the separation of input and display on desktops will remain, as will the distinction between desktops and tablets.



    All of these "conspiracy theories" regarding the demise of OS X, and traditional desktop operating systems generally, all depend on one particular assumption, applied in various directions. That assumption is that progress will cease in one area while it proceeds at a rapid rate in another. Progress will cease in desktop CPU development while development of tablet CPUs leaps ahead. Progress in desktop operating systems will cease while mobile operating system development advances at breakneck speed. Progress in desktop software will halt while tablet based software will gain the ability to do everything today's desktop software can. And so on, and so on.



    Of course, all these assumptions are pretty ridiculous when they are exposed. Desktop hardware, operating systems and software will advance at the same or greater pace as their tablet counterparts. In 10 years, desktop systems and software will be as, or more, advanced beyond today's systems as today's systems are advanced beyond those of 10 years ago. Just as people do things today that weren't possible 10 years ago, in 10 years they will do things that aren't possible today. Desktop systems will continue to provide orders of magnitude greater computing power, and the power of desktop software and the purposes to which it is put will grow likewise, and there will always be a significant gap between what these systems are capable of and what tablets can do.
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