Piper: Apple not expected to enter new product categories in 2011

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
With the calendar turning over to 2011, investment firm Piper Jaffray has made a prediction that Apple will improve its existing line of products, but will not enter any into any new categories this year.



Analyst Gene Munster said in a note to investors Monday that Apple's story in 2011 will likely be a continuation of the company's existing product lines, including the Mac, iPad, iPhone and iPod. Instead of entering new markets, he believes Apple will focus on new versions of its current major products.



Munster sees the launch of a Verizon-compatible CDMA iPhone as a 95 percent probability in the March quarter of 2011. He also expects to see a fifth-generation iPhone with near-field communication technology launch in the summer, with a new iPod touch offering similar e-wallet-style capabilities soon after.



He also said there is a 90 percent chance that Apple will debut cloud-based iTunes streaming services this year. The analyst also forecast an 80 percent chance that the iPad is offered with subsidies from wireless carriers, and a new iPad will launch in spring 2011.



Apple, of course, made a splash entering the tablet market with an announcement in early 2010. The iPad went on to become one of the company's hottest devices, quickly outselling the Mac.



Other major product launches in 2011 already announced by Apple include this week's launch of the Mac App Store on Thursday, and the release of Mac OS X 10.7 Lion in the summer. As usual, Munster believes Apple will refresh its iPod lineup in the fall, and will also issue redesigned MacBook Pros in the first half of 2011, with redesigned iMacs in the second half of the year.



Beyond 2011, Munster has stuck by his prediction that Apple will launch an Internet-connected television set in the next 2 to 4 years. As he said repeatedly throughout 2010, he believes an Apple-branded HDTV could launch as early as 2012.



"While Apple's commitment to the living room remains a 'hobby,' we continue to believe the company will enter the TV market with a full focus, as an all-in-one Apple television could move the needle when connected TVs proliferate," he said.



"Moreover, in terms of markets that would be entirely new categories for Apple and could move the needle, we believe the television market makes the most sense."



Piper Jaffray has maintained its overweight rating for AAPL stock, as well as its 12-month price target of $438.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 66
    "Apple, of course, made a splash entering the tablet market"



    They didn't "enter" the tablet market. They defined and created it. There were no tablets before Apple (unless you count the thing the UPS guy carried with him), just laptop computers without keyboards, with touchscreens.



    Apple may not "enter" a new market this year. But for all these (clueless) analysts know, they may create one. Or two.
  • Reply 2 of 66
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,741member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mister Snitch View Post


    They didn't "enter" the tablet market. They defined and created it.



    Thank you. I was wondering when someone would catch that.



    Same could be said for smartphones, I'd think.
  • Reply 3 of 66
    hittrj01hittrj01 Posts: 753member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Mister Snitch View Post


    "Apple, of course, made a splash entering the tablet market"



    They didn't "enter" the tablet market. They defined and created it. There were no tablets before Apple (unless you count the thing the UPS guy carried with him), just laptop computers without keyboards, with touchscreens.



    Apple may not "enter" a new market this year. But for all these (clueless) analysts know, they may create one. Or two.



    What else can Apple get into? I already have too many devices (although I love each and every one of them!!). Between portable media players, phones, tablets, computers, and a TV set-top box, I don't really know what else Apple needs or wants to get into as a consumer electronics company.
  • Reply 4 of 66
    is apple expected to enter a new market every year now? this analyst is saying stuff to get in the news...



    anyway, i think a Television may be the next new thing we see from Apple. i'd love a 40" cinema display with built in Apple TV software. (once the app store opens anyway)
  • Reply 5 of 66
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hittrj01 View Post


    What else can Apple get into?



    TVs. it's the last screen we look at that doesnt have an apple logo on the back.



    i don't see them getting into cameras/camcorders, but rather improving the iPod/iPhone cameras. other than that, i don't know what else there is...
  • Reply 6 of 66
    icarbonicarbon Posts: 196member
    80% of all statistics are made up.
  • Reply 7 of 66
    jon tjon t Posts: 131member
    I think the improvement in cameras, and more importantly, image processing will be high on the list.
  • Reply 8 of 66
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 1,875member
    Apple "only" seems to create entirely new markets every 3-5 years. That's actually an amazing achievement -- to expect more is to expect the impossible.



    But I do expect Apple to do something pretty amazing this year involving that NC server farm. A thought occurred to me the other day regarding what that facility might be used for. What if Apple were to provide APIs in the next version of iOS and Lion that make it possible for developers to seamlessly tap into the computing resources available in NC (and wherever else Apple builds them), in terms of storage, processing, and communication? And what if Apple also deals with the economics side of that equation -- making payment for use of those resources transparent and cheap? Perhaps a revamped Mobile Me would provide customers access to those resources at a reasonable price.



    While it wouldn't constitute a new consumer product in the hardware sense, it would be revolutionary. There's been a lot of talk about the potential of "the cloud" (or, if you go back 10 years, Larry Ellison's thin client ideas). Perhaps Apple will move us closer to realizing that hypothetical potential. Speaking of Ellison, I wonder how much Oracle involvement there is in that NC facility...
  • Reply 9 of 66
    oskiooskio Posts: 60member
    I think it is wise they don't "enter" into any new products. Let's just hope they fix the products they have....



    [Alarm didn't go off this AM]
  • Reply 10 of 66
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OskiO View Post


    I think it is wise they don't "enter" into any new products. Let's just hope they fix the products they have....



    [Alarm didn't go off this AM]



    You're absolutely right. Halt ALL innovation and product development until they solve the alarm bug. Totally. Thanks for the comment.
  • Reply 11 of 66
    monstrositymonstrosity Posts: 2,178member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleStud View Post


    You're absolutely right. Halt ALL innovation and product development until they solve the alarm bug. Totally. Thanks for the comment.



    I love the way "Alarmgate" gets top news headlines while Android Trojan barely registers as news.
  • Reply 12 of 66
    blastdoorblastdoor Posts: 1,875member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post


    I love the way "Alarmgate" gets top news headlines while Android Trojan barely registers as news.



    I think it's because Droid is for geeks while iPhone is for real people. Who cares if the geek phone has a bunch of geek problems. When the iPhone has an issue, it affects real people.
  • Reply 13 of 66
    tardistardis Posts: 90member
    Only one person seriously thinks that Apple would get into manufacturing TV displays, and that is Gene Munster at Piper Jaffray, and he has been banging on about this idea for many years, since long before the first Apple TV was announced.



    Gene Munster's stupid idea about Apple making a living-room-style TV has not been able to even take on board the latest changes that Apple made to the "Apple TV" hardware module, in particular the consumer-friendly $99 pricing, that will encourage many people to try it out.



    It's too soon yet to see the effect of the $99 Apple TV on Xmas 2010 sales, but we have already heard that a million have been sold. I am sure that those sales will help Apple in its move into supplying TV content to Apple products such as the Mac, iPhone, iPad etc. and of course via the Apple TV to many HDTV screens made by so many different makers in so many different sizes.



    I am equally sure that Apple will not turn into a home-appliance seller anytime soon.
  • Reply 14 of 66
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post


    I think it's because Droid is for geeks while iPhone is for real people. Who cares if the geek phone has a bunch of geek problems. When the iPhone has an issue, it affects real people.



    This sums up the situation amazingly well.
  • Reply 15 of 66
    macapfelmacapfel Posts: 486member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by hittrj01 View Post


    What else can Apple get into? I already have too many devices (although I love each and every one of them!!). Between portable media players, phones, tablets, computers, and a TV set-top box, I don't really know what else Apple needs or wants to get into as a consumer electronics company.



    One thing that I really miss is sort of central media server. Your right, I also have quite a number of devices now, and the last thing I want to do is to sync all of them all the time. A central media hub, with 2-3 HDs that also act as backup system could solve this problem. If this is done properly, this could just be the last and fantastic bit of kit you need to complete all the apple devices - including ATV.
  • Reply 16 of 66
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Blastdoor View Post


    I think it's because Droid is for geeks while iPhone is for real people. Who cares if the geek phone has a bunch of geek problems. When the iPhone has an issue, it affects real people.



    That seems oversimplified but a comparison of a FaceTime ad to a Verizon Droid ad says you speaks the truth.
  • Reply 17 of 66
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by monstrosity View Post


    I love the way "Alarmgate" gets top news headlines while Android Trojan barely registers as news.



    Maybe because the android problem can be avoided...
  • Reply 18 of 66
    jmmxjmmx Posts: 341member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by iCarbon View Post


    80% of all statistics are made up.



    Well YOURS is.
  • Reply 19 of 66
    jmmxjmmx Posts: 341member
    I agree with others that the server farm will dish out some surprises. Personally, I would like to see them solidify their email/calendar services to be enterprise-ready. If they had an entry to replace the way overpriced outlook it would be a huge revenue stream.



    As for a TV - to my mind it is a silly idea. There are a large number of entrenched players in that field and I don't think they could ever hope to make the margin levels that they are used to. In the short run they might, but in the long run they would not be sustainable.
  • Reply 20 of 66
    gprovidagprovida Posts: 244member
    If we look at consumer markets aside from transportation, kitchen, home/garden, food/consumption, and some entertainment [going to movies], the markets are rather limited. Apple has entered into markets with big potential: music players [although stereo speakers did not succeed], mobile game devices, cell [now smart phones], tablets [re-invented just like iPods reinvented MP3 players and business], and of course a continuing range of computers [laptop, desktop, and Pro work stations].



    So what markets offer volume and impact for Apple, hhmmm:



    Home Entertainment e.g., AppleTV [albeit successful compared to other devices], the media companies and their distributors are a major obstacle to Apple-style of innovation and so this is a very tough nut to crack and getting tougher. TVs are certainly an option, but not sure there is the transformational dimension of MP3 player to iPod, iPod Touch to Handheld gaming, iPhone to cell phone, or iPad to tablets in TV space. ApplyTV to an all in one TV? Perhaps this reflects my lack of imagination, but I don't see this as Apple's next big thing.



    Enterprise as next big area, hhmmm, talk about ugly bottom feeding market for commodities, ick. Case in point, servers and storage traction. Perhaps cloud, well this is also tough and personally I think way oversold like SOA, Web Stuff, Portals, ESBs, ... saves money [maybe] but new capabiities are really lacking. This is not a fertile area either, lots of money but little innovation. And what innovation does happen is driven my consumer market bringing it into the enterprise like guerilla warfare [look at email, social networking, wifi, cell phones, iphones, and now ipads]. Best to be supportive of small and medium businesses [much more innovative for IT and continue to support consumer stuff into the enterprise.



    Social Networking, hhmmm complicated and maybe opportunity there, but Facebook looks pretty agile and intimidating.



    So what is left, retail? Well here is an interesting area. Recall Apple is great at disrupting its own business to create new value, get rid of what is becoming passe or obsolute [floppy, parallel/serial ports, CD/DVD, harddrives, flash, ...] hhmm what does this mean for distribution of SW and perhaps some classes of hardware. Should Amazon and Best Buy be concerned?



    2011 and 2012 look to be very interesting as Apple continues to surprise us.
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