Android to be on 49% of smartphones by 2012, leaving Apple's iOS with 19%, Gartner predicts

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Gartner's latest forecast for worldwide smartphone operating system market share predicts that Google Android will be present on nearly half of all handsets sold next year, while the iPhone and its iOS operating system will account for 19 percent of units sold.



Gartner on Thursday issued a prediction that worldwide smartphone sales will reach 468 million units in 2011, a 57.7 increase from 2011. By the end of 2011, Android will become the most popular operating system worldwide.



And in 2012, Gartner sees Android accounting for nearly half -- 49 percent -- of the smartphone market by 2012. For comparison, Gartner sees Apple's iOS taking 19.4 percent share in 2011, and slipping to 18.9 percent total global smartphone operating system share in 2012.



And by 2015, Gartner predicts that Microsoft, with its Windows Phone platform powering Nokia handsets, will overtake Apple's iOS in smartphone operating system market share. The research firm has forecast Microsoft to represent 19.5 percent of the market in 2015, compared with Apple's 17.2 percent share with iOS.



Still, Gartner has predicted that iOS will remain the second biggest platform worldwide through 2014. The research firm has assumed that Apple will be more interested in maintaining its profit margins than pursuing market share and dramatically changing its pricing strategy. Its model sees iOS reaching its peak in terms of market share in 2011.



Gartner sees Apple's approach limiting adoption in emerging markets, but there have been numerous rumors that Apple is interested in building a low-cost iPhone that could be sold without a contract or carrier subsidy. This year, Apple Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook also hinted that his company was planning "clever things" to compete in the prepaid handset market.







"By 2015, 67 percent of all open OS devices will have an average selling price of $300 or below, proving that smartphones have been finally truly democratized," said Roberta Cozza, principal analyst at Gartner. "As vendors delivering Android-based devices continue to fight for market share, price will decrease to further benefit consumers.



"Android's position at the high end of the market will remain strong, but its greatest volume opportunity in the longer term will be in the mid- to low-cost smartphones, above all in emerging markets."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 86
    danv2danv2 Posts: 29member
    B/c Gartner is sooooo dead on in estimating anything. They are about as precise as a wrench is at neurosurgery.
  • Reply 2 of 86
    rob55rob55 Posts: 1,249member
    This line in particular made me chuckle.



    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    "Android's position at the high end of the market will remain strong"



  • Reply 3 of 86
    Doesn't Gartner have one of the worst track records (outside of Thurrott, Dvorak and Enderle) for predicting market behavior?



    And they automagically crossed out Symbian marketshare and scribbled in WP7 in its place, as if that was a foregone conclusion. I am obvious in the wrong business - I could have my dog sniff out trends better than these folks do. I think there should be an analysts' "batting average" site, which would show the overall performance statistics for some of these groups/people compared to the rest of the field...
  • Reply 4 of 86
    I predict Android will have a 49% share, iOS will have a 30% share, RIM will have a 10% share and other OSs will fight for the rest.
  • Reply 5 of 86
    boogabooga Posts: 1,077member
    On the day the first Android handset was released, Gartner predicted they would have 10% of the market by 2011 (off by 100%). But three weeks BEFORE the first Android set, Gartner said RIM had "won" the Smartphone wars. By the end of 2008, Gartner was putting out reports talking about the slowing of the Smartphone market's growth.



    In short, they have no idea what they're talking about and are always wrong, but as long as people will pay them to put out reports they'll happily sell some made up stuff.
  • Reply 6 of 86
    danv2danv2 Posts: 29member
    If analysts were outlawed I think about 5%-10% of the upper crust of the U.S.A. would instantly be out of a job. That being said, I'm all for it. Overpriced misinformation can be obtained from the bum on the street, the Burning Man Festival, and a four year old with transformers.



    I might actually trust the last three there.
  • Reply 7 of 86
    I believe these predictions are reasonably accurate. Looking at the current trends of increasing adoption of Android smartphones would seem to substantiate these projections. I think in the end the mobile phone market share will look something like the desktop market share as has been mentioned previously. Currently Windows overwhelmingly dominates the desktop market with approx 90% market share while OSX has >10%. However I don't see the spread as being this great in the mobile market. It may be 60% Android, 20% iOS and 20% Windows Phone. Apple will still be enormously successful in their segment but because of the open-source nature of Android (Honeycomb excluded) and the partnerships between device makers similar to that of Microsoft, Android will continue to be the dominate mobile operating system in the near term future.
  • Reply 8 of 86
    zarenzaren Posts: 49member
    Interesting report here about smartphone market share:



    http://mashable.com/2011/02/01/niels...e-marketshare/



    If you look at that graph, Gartner might be on to something. For all the push Apple's gotten, they haven't increased market share in the last year or so. I know that for as big an Apple fanboy as I am, I'm toting an Android phone..
  • Reply 9 of 86
    alandailalandail Posts: 679member
    I guess they missed how well Apple has been able to compete in the MP3 market. They didn't just sit around and let competitors dominate the low end there. Instead they were quite aggressive, hitting all of the key price points.



    In the phone market they currently ship a version that sells for just $49. Is there really any reason to think they can't expand their product offerings? They certainly aren't going to just sit around and lose market share, they just aren't going to tell us what they're doing until they do it.
  • Reply 10 of 86
    axualaxual Posts: 244member
    I don't care about any of your predictions, and can't name anyone else who cares either.
  • Reply 11 of 86
    katastroffkatastroff Posts: 103member
    who cares, apple will still have 80% dollar share.
  • Reply 12 of 86
    wovelwovel Posts: 956member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by punkrocker27ka View Post


    I believe these predictions are reasonably accurate. Looking at the current trends of increasing adoption of Android smartphones would seem to substantiate these projections. I think in the end the mobile phone market share will look something like the desktop market share as has been mentioned previously. Currently Windows overwhelmingly dominates the desktop market with approx 90% market share while OSX has >10%. However I don't see the spread as being this great in the mobile market. It may be 60% Android, 20% iOS and 20% Windows Phone. Apple will still be enormously successful in their segment but because of the open-source nature of Android (Honeycomb excluded) and the partnerships between device makers similar to that of Microsoft, Android will continue to be the dominate mobile operating system in the near term future.



    Those same factors will keep the Android share of the mobile app market right around the 5% they had in 2010. The iPhone will remain the #1 smartphone for at least the next few years. Nothing else is even close. Since in spite of always being refered to as a single platform, Android is in reality many different platforms, using a wide variety of hardware and often times incompatible operating systems that never get upgraded.



    Developers will continue to invest time and resources in iOS and play around with Android. If google can not tighten the reigns on the fragmentation, many developers will just walk away. If a single Android phone ever reaches the iPhone's market share, then you will see developers coming to develop for that platform. No doubt that will work fine on many other Android devices and not at all on some.
  • Reply 13 of 86
    the fact that Windows Phone 7 is number 2 shows how out of touch with reality this analysis is.
  • Reply 14 of 86
    mactelmactel Posts: 1,275member
    Unfortunately bigwigs at corporations listen to Gartner and use them as the absolute truth. This statement may affect many corporate decisions. Thankfully my company hasn't been listening to them lately.
  • Reply 15 of 86
    stourquestourque Posts: 353member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by katastroff View Post


    who cares, apple will still have 80% dollar share.



    And still the #1 selling phone. Android is spread out over about 85 different models.
  • Reply 16 of 86
    maccherrymaccherry Posts: 924member
    what is misleading about this is what you don't see and that is Android as an OS means nothing by being on 49% of the smart phones. It is free. It piggybacks on massively produced hardware.

    People wake up and smell the coffee!!!

    What has been done was to lump all of Google's OEM's market share up like Moto and HTC and put the total under one headline:ANDROID. That may sound impressive but the tell of the tape is that the balance sheets of the OEMS are not on Google's CFO's desk.

    For the Android OEMS this is nothing but a race to produce as may different iterations of an Android smart phone, advertise it and cash in as quickly as possible.
  • Reply 17 of 86
    timuscatimusca Posts: 120member
    I love how these company try to predict something 4 years out when they couldn't *possibly* have a clue where iOS and Apple's marketing strategy is headed. There are so many variables in this, its unbelievable.
  • Reply 18 of 86
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    The thing that I don't understand is that if Apple can sell every unit as fast as they can manufacture it and they have cornered the market on component parts, where are all these millions of Androids coming from? Do they have some secret super advanced manufacturing plant somewhere that can out pace Apples facilities? And also with all of these popular Androids being sold, why do I get thousands of hits to my website from Apple devices and almost none from Android?
  • Reply 19 of 86
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 19,818member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Stourque View Post


    And still the #1 selling phone.



    Of course it is. If Apple made 10 different ones it might be different. Silly argument, but hold on tight to it.



    But really, Apple isn't worried about their smartphone market share any longer. They already lost that fight, and are quite happy just sticking with their margins. If they lose device sales to Android or WM7 models, so be it. They've moved on to a more lucrative tablet market where there's much less in the way of competition.
  • Reply 20 of 86
    michael scripmichael scrip Posts: 1,912member
    "Android" could be on 49% of smartphones... and that's great for Google. (I put Android in quotes because it's Google's software)



    But for the manufacturers of Android phones... they're still fighting with each other. Google is happy when any Android phone gets purchased. HTC only celebrates when one of their phones gets purchased.



    It's kinda like Microsoft... and HP, Dell, Asus, Acer, etc.



    Even if Apple only has 19% of the smartphone market... that's still amazing for a single company with only a couple of phones.
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