What's up with AAPL!?

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
Down over 11% in the past couple of months. Some of it is market-related, for sure, but it seems to be going beyond that.



I am treating it as a buying opportunity, but also wondering what the market is getting so ants-y about.

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 14
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    They're whiners. Steve's been out, and of course he's the only one who's able to do anything at Apple.



    Just buy it while it's cheap.
  • Reply 2 of 14
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    AAPL has been a standout under-performer since last October, more or less. I've been talking about this for months now. The underlying investor psychology behind the stock has been fundamentally altered during this time. Apple could do quite a lot to reverse this trend, but they won't do it, because basically they don't give a crap about investors.
  • Reply 3 of 14
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 19,223member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    Apple could do quite a lot to reverse this trend, but they won't do it, because basically they don't give a crap about investors.



    How can you say that 'Apple doesn't give a crap about investors'?! They have continued to execute well, consistently beat even far out whisper estimates, introduced a steady slew of new or updated products and services, kept Jobs as visible as possible, are signaling their continued focus on the future with things such as the planned new campus.



    I know that you think that their starting to pay dividends would be a good thing. I disagree (since I think that it could be a disastrous move -- but then, my guess regarding why it could be a bad thing is as good as yours regarding why it could be a good thing). Leaving these arguable assertions aside, what is it that Apple could be doing that they are not?
  • Reply 4 of 14
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post


    How can you say that 'Apple doesn't give a crap about investors'?! They have continued to execute well, consistently beat even far out whisper estimates, introduced a steady slew of new or updated products and services, kept Jobs as visible as possible, are signaling their continued focus on the future with things such as the planned new campus.



    I know that you think that their starting to pay dividends would be a good thing. I disagree (since I think that it could be a disastrous move -- but then, my guess regarding why it could be a bad thing is as good as yours regarding why it could be a good thing). Leaving these arguable assertions aside, what is it that Apple could be doing that they are not?



    Because their investor relations stink. Always have. Primarily because they could do much more to reduce the uncertainty surrounding company leadership. Anything, actually, would be progress. And yes, because they continue to stockpile cash for no apparent reason, which does not bolster investor confidence. It raises questions that Apple refuses to even acknowledge, let alone answer. Investors don't care about their pretty new campus. They care about minimizing future uncertainty.



    Beating earnings estimates only means something if the stock performs proportionally as a result. For the last six months or more, AAPL has not done so. So that's how.
  • Reply 5 of 14
    sessamoidsessamoid Posts: 182member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    Because their investor relations stink. Always have. Primarily because they could do much more to reduce the uncertainty surrounding company leadership. Anything, actually, would be progress. And yes, because they continue to stockpile cash for no apparent reason, which does not bolster investor confidence.



    I think the Nortel patent bidding demonstrated that the stockpiling of cash means that they have good reason for doing so. Who knows how much it might have cost and what other things they might want to purchase later?
  • Reply 6 of 14
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sessamoid View Post


    I think the Nortel patent bidding demonstrated that the stockpiling of cash means that they have good reason for doing so. Who knows how much it might have cost and what other things they might want to purchase later?



    Six companies split the $4.5 billion cost, meaning Apple's share was probably about $750 million, which translates into about three weeks of cash flow. So no, the stockpile was not required for this investment, and it continues to grow at the rate of around $12-15 billion a year. For years I've been hearing about all the great but totally unknown things Apple can do with all that cash. At some point we will have to acknowledge that they are shoveling it into a huge, nonproductive heap because they could not possibly spend any significant part of it in a responsible way. I thought so three years ago when the cash hoard was half of what it is today. Maybe some others will come on board when it reaches $100 billion, a few months from now. Some probably never will.
  • Reply 7 of 14
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Wow. AAPL recently went past $358 in after hours trading. It's been on a decent bull run these past few days. Any reason for this? It's near all-time highs now.
  • Reply 8 of 14
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by nvidia2008 View Post


    Wow. AAPL recently went past $358 in after hours trading. It's been on a decent bull run these past few days. Any reason for this? It's near all-time highs now.



    Good luck figuring what drives any stock move over a short space of time, unless the news is obviously good or bad, and even then the move can be contrary to the news. About all we can really say is that AAPL was hit harder than the broader markets in the June slump and has bounced back somewhat more strongly, and over the last month it has closely paced the NASDAQ composite. I will keep the champaign on ice until I see it start over-performing the index for at least a few weeks running.
  • Reply 9 of 14
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    Good luck figuring what drives any stock move over a short space of time,



    Pre-Lion buying. The day Lion's released, it'll drop back to 320 or lower.
  • Reply 10 of 14
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    Pre-Lion buying. The day Lion's released, it'll drop back to 320 or lower.



    Then short it like crazy if that's such a sure thing. Otherwise don't be telling us as if you really know.



    Incidentally for those of who have never seen AAPL go crazy due an OS release (and I think that should be everyone), I will mention the Q3 earnings report due in the next couple of weeks. I will allow the reader to decide which one is likely to be the more important upcoming event to investors.
  • Reply 11 of 14
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,732member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    Then short it like crazy if that's such a sure thing. Otherwise don't be telling us as if you really know.



    Incidentally for those of who have never seen AAPL go crazy due an OS release (and I think that should be everyone), I will mention the Q3 earnings report due in the next couple of weeks. I will allow the reader to decide which one is likely to be the more important upcoming event to investors.



    The last earnings report didn't give Apple the positive bump it deserved IIRC.
  • Reply 12 of 14
    hcho3hcho3 Posts: 6member
    Be patient...



    Stocks do not always go up. There are people out there who own good amount of apple stocks and they are just selling them. Also, people fear too much about Steve's Health.



    Steve is the Best CEO I have seen yet, but he is not the apple. Apple is much more than Steve.



    Apple stock is still too freaking cheap. 15 billion app downloads? Really? Tim Cook is talking to China Mobile about iphone. China Mobile has like 600 million users. Btw... that's like 5 times more users than AT&T and Verizon combined. There are potential of over 100 million Smartphone buyers.



    Apple stock is no where near being overpriced. With iPad 3G and iPhone 3G sales getting a significant growth, there are still much more room to grow. I expect apple stock to hit 500 dollars easily. After that, it will go even higher.



    iPhone 5 will do well, but the real kicker here are the iPad 3 and iPhone LTE.



    Those app sales......

    Those movies sales

    Those music sales

    Those iPhone + iPad sales bring money to apple from carriers.



    If I was an investor, I would buy apple stocks. I would stay away from Samsung's stock. That company is going down...
  • Reply 13 of 14
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post


    The last earnings report didn't give Apple the positive bump it deserved IIRC.



    Right. In fact the PE notched down again, but this is part of a long, slow process that began over three years ago.
  • Reply 14 of 14
    nvidia2008nvidia2008 Posts: 9,262member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post


    Good luck figuring what drives any stock move over a short space of time, unless the news is obviously good or bad, and even then the move can be contrary to the news. About all we can really say is that AAPL was hit harder than the broader markets in the June slump and has bounced back somewhat more strongly, and over the last month it has closely paced the NASDAQ composite. I will keep the champaign on ice until I see it start over-performing the index for at least a few weeks running.



    Interestingly Google has outperformed Apple and Nasdaq in the recent run up. RIM is tanking. Anyone still holding to that better cut their losses now, I reckon.
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