It would be an IDIOTIC move to release another iPad in the year of iPad 2... AND when you can't even FIND an iPad 2.
That's not the heels of success. That's the heels of " 'once upon a time, the greatest warrior on Earth stood here, and so we've erected a giant statue in his honor' and you're some little kid looking up at the statue".
No iPad 3 until next year. No new model until Apple can make enough of the current one to even satisfy its DEMAND.
So as long as you can barely satisfy demand for your own product, you should ignore what your competitors are doing and stop innovating? Yes, this makes total sense!
Regarding the retina display for the iPad... I don't think Apple will release it as a "Pro" model. A "pro" market won't use the iPad until it has a more open file system -- the constricted file system makes it difficult to produces certain types of media without jumping through hoops. Plus if the retina display is released in a "pro" model which would likely cost a lot of money, people would at that point would just buy a laptop -- the "pro" model won't get a lot of support.
I think Apple would be smart to wait until production costs of the retina display comes down in price enough to include in ALL iPad models. That way developers will include iPad retina display support in all their apps since so many people would have them. (as opposed to a small fragment minority of iPad "pro" owners).
It would be a genius move to release an even better iPad on the heels of iPad 2 success. It would solidify the Market as much as the iPods if not more..
Your analogy is flawed. See below to learn.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvidia2008
These iPad 3 rumours are most confusing.
Indeed. Confusing and often erroneous.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
It would be an IDIOTIC move to release another iPad in the year of iPad 2... AND when you can't even FIND an iPad 2.
That's not the heels of success. That's the heels of " 'once upon a time, the greatest warrior on Earth stood here, and so we've erected a giant statue in his honor' and you're some little kid looking up at the statue".
No iPad 3 until next year. No new model until Apple can make enough of the current one to even satisfy its DEMAND.
Genius or idiotic?
Let's assume there's a grain of truth in the rumors (after all, the almighty (gag) Gruber hinted early this year that there would be another iPad released in the fall), it will not be an iPad3 in the traditional sense. Apple has NEVER released a new version so quickly. It is unnecessary to do this because the competition remains flummoxed. Furthermore, iPad margins are not as great as some people make them out to be (see their quarterly reports); however, they will increase with time and shipment volume. So, the more time they allow between versions, the more time they have to decrease costs, increase margins, amortize the fixed costs of tooling, etc. This is the standard business model even for this industry.
Back to the rumors and iPod analogy - Apple's iPod strategy was (is) to market an array of products spanning wide ranges of use, size and cost. If you are a serious music lover with a voluminous collection, there is the iPod Classic. If you have a medium size collection and want music on the go and some pics and videos to admire, there is the Nano (which also has the cute appeal for the teen market). If you are a runner, there is the Shuffle.
If the iPad playbook is indeed similar to that of the iPod (they are very different products), then if an iPad release is imminent, it will NOT be an iPad 2 replacement. Nor will it be an iPad 3 that is simply superior in some specs to iPad 2. It will be a different in form factor (Jobs has never been afraid to eat his words and produce a product he has publicly mocked) or some other way. What will it be? I don't know. After all, how many people saw the Shuffle and Nano coming before Jobs pulled them out of his crotch? But I personally do not believe a higher res screen alone is enough of a distinguishing factor. Such a product will create confusion, since there are already something like 12 different versions of the iPad2. Instead, any new iPad released in the fall will be different enough that some of us will buy it to go along with our iPad2.
You can't (or refuse to) imagine the backlash at a new iPad this year. Trust in Apple would be shattered. It'd be like the discontinuation of the 4GB iPhone... times six. At least.
I'm not so sure about this prediction. If Apple does introduce an iPad2+ (or HD or whatever) it will NOT be replacing the iPad2. The 2 will still be selling like hotcakes so the people who bought one won't feel like they bought a just released/already out of date product. Besides the iPad2+ will have a higher price as well.
I don't think there would be much backlash at all, actually. Only the bleeding edge/ techie types will really care, and they don't call it bleeding edge for nothing--we know the game! I don't know if Apple could pull off a 2+ this fall, but if they can and it has the power to push all those pixels, I think it would be a great move!
If the iPad playbook is indeed similar to that of the iPod (they are very different products), then if an iPad release is imminent, it will NOT be an iPad 2 replacement. Nor will it be an iPad 3 that is simply superior in some specs to iPad 2. It will be a different in form factor (Jobs has never been afraid to eat his words and produce a product he has publicly mocked) or some other way.
I have to disagree with you on this point because you're forgetting that Apple absolutely did this with iPods, in fact they did it often. Let's consider Just the iPod classic. In addition to the main generations, which were roughly yearly, there were more frequent bumps in the storage, and one at least one notable occasion screen.
I agree with you that Apple may also choose to diversify the product line into other form-factors, but that's a different consideration and doesn't bear on whether they'll adopt a more frequent spec-refresh schedule for the iPad.
The question is, does Apple intend to market the iPad in a similar way to the iPhone or in a similar way to the iPod? We already have one really big clue - the pricing. The iPhone is much more expensive than even the top end Android phones, but the iPad is the same price as all but the cheapest Android tablets. In pricing at least, iPad is looking much more like iPod than iPhone.
I think Apple would be smart to wait until production costs of the retina display comes down in price enough to include in ALL iPad models. That way developers will include iPad retina display support in all their apps since so many people would have them. (as opposed to a small fragment minority of iPad "pro" owners).
Yes, but...
Nobody else is making or using retina displays of this size. What is driving their prices down in your model?
The best way to bring 10 inch retina display prices down is to start producing an iPad2+ that uses them. It doesn't have to compete with the iPad2 in sales. There are always some people out there who must have the best of everything and are willing to pay for it. If they are happy to pay for the innovation, why shouldn't Apple let them? Once they are in mass production, prices will start to drop as we all know they will.
Then, in 6 to 18 months, retina displays will find their way into all iPads if all goes well!
I have to disagree with you on this point because you're forgetting that Apple absolutely did this with iPods, in fact they did it often. Let's consider Just the iPod classic. In addition to the main generations, which were roughly yearly, there were more frequent bumps in the storage, and one at least one notable occasion screen.
On this point, don't think you're disagreeing with me; not at all.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cloudgazer
I agree with you that Apple may also choose to diversify the product line into other form-factors, but that's a different consideration and doesn't bear on whether they'll adopt a more frequent spec-refresh schedule for the iPad.
The question is, does Apple intend to market the iPad in a similar way to the iPhone or in a similar way to the iPod? We already have one really big clue - the pricing. The iPhone is much more expensive than even the top end Android phones, but the iPad is the same price as all but the cheapest Android tablets. In pricing at least, iPad is looking much more like iPod than iPhone.
That leaves the possibility that they would introduce a high end iPad3. Would a high res screen alone justify that? Not sure. Not at all sure.
It would be an IDIOTIC move to release another iPad in the year of iPad 2... AND when you can't even FIND an iPad 2.
That's not the heels of success. That's the heels of " 'once upon a time, the greatest warrior on Earth stood here, and so we've erected a giant statue in his honor' and you're some little kid looking up at the statue".
No iPad 3 until next year. No new model until Apple can make enough of the current one to even satisfy its DEMAND.
Uh...what? A giant statue erection? Honor? Warrior? Heels? A little kid?
How does that relate to the iPad IIGS?
Needless to say, the metaphor went over my head and landed with a thud.
My initial thoughts after reading this were: Why Foxcon/HonHai? They can't scale, can't innovate and can't keep a secret.
But, then I started thinking about how much Foxcon has paved the sales floor way for APPL in China. This is the market, not ROW, we are faster at starting a trend, but China is the volume that every manufacturer wants to sell enmass.
Why do I care as long as new tech-toys continue to fall from the APPL tree?
-RJ
What does the stock symbol for Appell Petroleum have anything to do with this discussion?
Shouldn't a bigger consideration be what happens if Foxxcon stops shipping for some reason? Either political unrest, an earthquake in that region, or a host of other reasons would shut off Apple's supply chain. Worse still, they depend on Taiwanese firms that hate them for parts.
I agree with you though that Apple seem to have an unusually good relationship with China, and it's not clear why.
This is the genius of Apple that is often overlooked. A few years ago during my Apple Reseller days I met and attended a talk by an edu and enterprise speaker from Apple China's HQ in Beijing... A Canadian guy. Back then they were targeting high-end and international schools in China to go one-to-one with MacBooks for students. They already had quite a few schools on board... Apple they knew very much of the upcoming upper middle class and nouveau super-rich.
Only years later would we hear from Tim Cook laying down the game plan... "For emerging markets we're going to target China first and then take everything we learn from there to other countries." And indeed that's how it's been run in Asia. Apple China in charge of greater China and in charge of Apple South Asia which looks after India and South East Asia. Apple Korea probably is under Apple China too.
Japan is separate and was Apple's first foray into Asia. But they've admitted years ago they haven't seen the success they'd like. This was before iPhone, of course. In any case Japan is no longer the jewel in the eye of Western countries, at least in terms of potential Asian customer growth.
My guess is that sometime in the past decade Steve or others had the vision that Japan is old hat and slowly but surely put in a lot of resources into China... Firstly manufacturing of course, as most others jumped on the bandwagon. But they also put in a lot of research into "understanding" Asia by being in China and studying the Chinese. It's a vision that has payed off handsomely, so much so that they are being extra cautious in how they further enter the market. But Apple is no fool, while it dances in the ballroom with the Chinese awaiting a bigger Apple retail presence it's out in the streets samba-ing with the rest of Asia (yes culturally mismatched metaphor but you get my drift), seeing unprecedented growth.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton
Uh...what? A giant statue erection? Honor? Warrior? Heels? A little kid?
How does that relate to the iPad IIGS?
Needless to say, the metaphor went over my head and landed with a thud.
Shouldn't a bigger consideration be what happens if Foxxcon stops shipping for some reason? Either political unrest, an earthquake in that region, or a host of other reasons would shut off Apple's supply chain. Worse still, they depend on Taiwanese firms that hate them for parts.
While Taiwan is on the Pacific "ring of fire", I think their manufacturing has moved to China, so earthquakes are less likely to sink that ship.
This is the genius of Apple that is often overlooked. A few years ago during my Apple Reseller days I met and attended a talk by an edu and enterprise speaker from Apple China's HQ in Beijing... A Canadian guy. Back then they were targeting high-end and international schools in China to go one-to-one with MacBooks for students. They already had quite a few schools on board... Apple they knew very much of the upcoming upper middle class and nouveau super-rich.
Only years later would we hear from Tim Cook laying down the game plan... "For emerging markets we're going to target China first and then take everything we learn from there to other countries." And indeed that's how it's been run in Asia. Apple China in charge of greater China and in charge of Apple South Asia which looks after India and South East Asia. Apple Korea probably is under Apple China too.
Japan is separate and was Apple's first foray into Asia. But they've admitted years ago they haven't seen the success they'd like. This was before iPhone, of course. In any case Japan is no longer the jewel in the eye of Western countries, at least in terms of potential Asian customer growth.
My guess is that sometime in the past decade Steve or others had the vision that Japan is old hat and slowly but surely put in a lot of resources into China... Firstly manufacturing of course, as most others jumped on the bandwagon. But they also put in a lot of research into "understanding" Asia by being in China and studying the Chinese. It's a vision that has payed off handsomely, so much so that they are being extra cautious in how they further enter the market. But Apple is no fool, while it dances in the ballroom with the Chinese awaiting a bigger Apple retail presence it's out in the streets samba-ing with the rest of Asia (yes culturally mismatched metaphor but you get my drift), seeing unprecedented growth
Very instructive post. Thanks. It is a great thing that Apple is able to understand how to deal in China. Something American besides Buicks and fast food works there!
If the "wind is blowing" in the direction of an iPad 3, where's the iPhone nano that people have been saying will come out next month every month since January 2008?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Suddenly Newton
Uh...what? A giant statue erection? Honor? Warrior? Heels? A little kid?
Needless to say, the metaphor went over my head and landed with a thud.
The warrior's the iPad. The little kid is any competing tablet.
Comments
It would be an IDIOTIC move to release another iPad in the year of iPad 2... AND when you can't even FIND an iPad 2.
That's not the heels of success. That's the heels of " 'once upon a time, the greatest warrior on Earth stood here, and so we've erected a giant statue in his honor' and you're some little kid looking up at the statue".
No iPad 3 until next year. No new model until Apple can make enough of the current one to even satisfy its DEMAND.
So as long as you can barely satisfy demand for your own product, you should ignore what your competitors are doing and stop innovating? Yes, this makes total sense!
I think Apple would be smart to wait until production costs of the retina display comes down in price enough to include in ALL iPad models. That way developers will include iPad retina display support in all their apps since so many people would have them. (as opposed to a small fragment minority of iPad "pro" owners).
It would be a genius move to release an even better iPad on the heels of iPad 2 success. It would solidify the Market as much as the iPods if not more..
Your analogy is flawed. See below to learn.
These iPad 3 rumours are most confusing.
Indeed. Confusing and often erroneous.
It would be an IDIOTIC move to release another iPad in the year of iPad 2... AND when you can't even FIND an iPad 2.
That's not the heels of success. That's the heels of " 'once upon a time, the greatest warrior on Earth stood here, and so we've erected a giant statue in his honor' and you're some little kid looking up at the statue".
No iPad 3 until next year. No new model until Apple can make enough of the current one to even satisfy its DEMAND.
Genius or idiotic?
Let's assume there's a grain of truth in the rumors (after all, the almighty (gag) Gruber hinted early this year that there would be another iPad released in the fall), it will not be an iPad3 in the traditional sense. Apple has NEVER released a new version so quickly. It is unnecessary to do this because the competition remains flummoxed. Furthermore, iPad margins are not as great as some people make them out to be (see their quarterly reports); however, they will increase with time and shipment volume. So, the more time they allow between versions, the more time they have to decrease costs, increase margins, amortize the fixed costs of tooling, etc. This is the standard business model even for this industry.
Back to the rumors and iPod analogy - Apple's iPod strategy was (is) to market an array of products spanning wide ranges of use, size and cost. If you are a serious music lover with a voluminous collection, there is the iPod Classic. If you have a medium size collection and want music on the go and some pics and videos to admire, there is the Nano (which also has the cute appeal for the teen market). If you are a runner, there is the Shuffle.
If the iPad playbook is indeed similar to that of the iPod (they are very different products), then if an iPad release is imminent, it will NOT be an iPad 2 replacement. Nor will it be an iPad 3 that is simply superior in some specs to iPad 2. It will be a different in form factor (Jobs has never been afraid to eat his words and produce a product he has publicly mocked) or some other way. What will it be? I don't know. After all, how many people saw the Shuffle and Nano coming before Jobs pulled them out of his crotch? But I personally do not believe a higher res screen alone is enough of a distinguishing factor. Such a product will create confusion, since there are already something like 12 different versions of the iPad2. Instead, any new iPad released in the fall will be different enough that some of us will buy it to go along with our iPad2.
You can't (or refuse to) imagine the backlash at a new iPad this year. Trust in Apple would be shattered. It'd be like the discontinuation of the 4GB iPhone... times six. At least.
I'm not so sure about this prediction. If Apple does introduce an iPad2+ (or HD or whatever) it will NOT be replacing the iPad2. The 2 will still be selling like hotcakes so the people who bought one won't feel like they bought a just released/already out of date product. Besides the iPad2+ will have a higher price as well.
I don't think there would be much backlash at all, actually. Only the bleeding edge/ techie types will really care, and they don't call it bleeding edge for nothing--we know the game! I don't know if Apple could pull off a 2+ this fall, but if they can and it has the power to push all those pixels, I think it would be a great move!
If the iPad playbook is indeed similar to that of the iPod (they are very different products), then if an iPad release is imminent, it will NOT be an iPad 2 replacement. Nor will it be an iPad 3 that is simply superior in some specs to iPad 2. It will be a different in form factor (Jobs has never been afraid to eat his words and produce a product he has publicly mocked) or some other way.
I have to disagree with you on this point because you're forgetting that Apple absolutely did this with iPods, in fact they did it often. Let's consider Just the iPod classic. In addition to the main generations, which were roughly yearly, there were more frequent bumps in the storage, and one at least one notable occasion screen.
I agree with you that Apple may also choose to diversify the product line into other form-factors, but that's a different consideration and doesn't bear on whether they'll adopt a more frequent spec-refresh schedule for the iPad.
The question is, does Apple intend to market the iPad in a similar way to the iPhone or in a similar way to the iPod? We already have one really big clue - the pricing. The iPhone is much more expensive than even the top end Android phones, but the iPad is the same price as all but the cheapest Android tablets. In pricing at least, iPad is looking much more like iPod than iPhone.
I think Apple would be smart to wait until production costs of the retina display comes down in price enough to include in ALL iPad models. That way developers will include iPad retina display support in all their apps since so many people would have them. (as opposed to a small fragment minority of iPad "pro" owners).
Yes, but...
Nobody else is making or using retina displays of this size. What is driving their prices down in your model?
The best way to bring 10 inch retina display prices down is to start producing an iPad2+ that uses them. It doesn't have to compete with the iPad2 in sales. There are always some people out there who must have the best of everything and are willing to pay for it. If they are happy to pay for the innovation, why shouldn't Apple let them? Once they are in mass production, prices will start to drop as we all know they will.
Then, in 6 to 18 months, retina displays will find their way into all iPads if all goes well!
I have to disagree with you on this point because you're forgetting that Apple absolutely did this with iPods, in fact they did it often. Let's consider Just the iPod classic. In addition to the main generations, which were roughly yearly, there were more frequent bumps in the storage, and one at least one notable occasion screen.
On this point, don't think you're disagreeing with me; not at all.
I agree with you that Apple may also choose to diversify the product line into other form-factors, but that's a different consideration and doesn't bear on whether they'll adopt a more frequent spec-refresh schedule for the iPad.
The question is, does Apple intend to market the iPad in a similar way to the iPhone or in a similar way to the iPod? We already have one really big clue - the pricing. The iPhone is much more expensive than even the top end Android phones, but the iPad is the same price as all but the cheapest Android tablets. In pricing at least, iPad is looking much more like iPod than iPhone.
That leaves the possibility that they would introduce a high end iPad3. Would a high res screen alone justify that? Not sure. Not at all sure.
It would be an IDIOTIC move to release another iPad in the year of iPad 2... AND when you can't even FIND an iPad 2.
That's not the heels of success. That's the heels of " 'once upon a time, the greatest warrior on Earth stood here, and so we've erected a giant statue in his honor' and you're some little kid looking up at the statue".
No iPad 3 until next year. No new model until Apple can make enough of the current one to even satisfy its DEMAND.
Uh...what? A giant statue erection? Honor? Warrior? Heels? A little kid?
How does that relate to the iPad IIGS?
Needless to say, the metaphor went over my head and landed with a thud.
My initial thoughts after reading this were: Why Foxcon/HonHai? They can't scale, can't innovate and can't keep a secret.
But, then I started thinking about how much Foxcon has paved the sales floor way for APPL in China. This is the market, not ROW, we are faster at starting a trend, but China is the volume that every manufacturer wants to sell enmass.
Why do I care as long as new tech-toys continue to fall from the APPL tree?
-RJ
What does the stock symbol for Appell Petroleum have anything to do with this discussion?
I agree with you though that Apple seem to have an unusually good relationship with China, and it's not clear why.
This is the genius of Apple that is often overlooked. A few years ago during my Apple Reseller days I met and attended a talk by an edu and enterprise speaker from Apple China's HQ in Beijing... A Canadian guy. Back then they were targeting high-end and international schools in China to go one-to-one with MacBooks for students. They already had quite a few schools on board... Apple they knew very much of the upcoming upper middle class and nouveau super-rich.
Only years later would we hear from Tim Cook laying down the game plan... "For emerging markets we're going to target China first and then take everything we learn from there to other countries." And indeed that's how it's been run in Asia. Apple China in charge of greater China and in charge of Apple South Asia which looks after India and South East Asia. Apple Korea probably is under Apple China too.
Japan is separate and was Apple's first foray into Asia. But they've admitted years ago they haven't seen the success they'd like. This was before iPhone, of course. In any case Japan is no longer the jewel in the eye of Western countries, at least in terms of potential Asian customer growth.
My guess is that sometime in the past decade Steve or others had the vision that Japan is old hat and slowly but surely put in a lot of resources into China... Firstly manufacturing of course, as most others jumped on the bandwagon. But they also put in a lot of research into "understanding" Asia by being in China and studying the Chinese. It's a vision that has payed off handsomely, so much so that they are being extra cautious in how they further enter the market. But Apple is no fool, while it dances in the ballroom with the Chinese awaiting a bigger Apple retail presence it's out in the streets samba-ing with the rest of Asia (yes culturally mismatched metaphor but you get my drift), seeing unprecedented growth.
Uh...what? A giant statue erection? Honor? Warrior? Heels? A little kid?
How does that relate to the iPad IIGS?
Needless to say, the metaphor went over my head and landed with a thud.
Something about a statue with a giant erection.
Shouldn't a bigger consideration be what happens if Foxxcon stops shipping for some reason? Either political unrest, an earthquake in that region, or a host of other reasons would shut off Apple's supply chain. Worse still, they depend on Taiwanese firms that hate them for parts.
While Taiwan is on the Pacific "ring of fire", I think their manufacturing has moved to China, so earthquakes are less likely to sink that ship.
This is the genius of Apple that is often overlooked. A few years ago during my Apple Reseller days I met and attended a talk by an edu and enterprise speaker from Apple China's HQ in Beijing... A Canadian guy. Back then they were targeting high-end and international schools in China to go one-to-one with MacBooks for students. They already had quite a few schools on board... Apple they knew very much of the upcoming upper middle class and nouveau super-rich.
Only years later would we hear from Tim Cook laying down the game plan... "For emerging markets we're going to target China first and then take everything we learn from there to other countries." And indeed that's how it's been run in Asia. Apple China in charge of greater China and in charge of Apple South Asia which looks after India and South East Asia. Apple Korea probably is under Apple China too.
Japan is separate and was Apple's first foray into Asia. But they've admitted years ago they haven't seen the success they'd like. This was before iPhone, of course. In any case Japan is no longer the jewel in the eye of Western countries, at least in terms of potential Asian customer growth.
My guess is that sometime in the past decade Steve or others had the vision that Japan is old hat and slowly but surely put in a lot of resources into China... Firstly manufacturing of course, as most others jumped on the bandwagon. But they also put in a lot of research into "understanding" Asia by being in China and studying the Chinese. It's a vision that has payed off handsomely, so much so that they are being extra cautious in how they further enter the market. But Apple is no fool, while it dances in the ballroom with the Chinese awaiting a bigger Apple retail presence it's out in the streets samba-ing with the rest of Asia (yes culturally mismatched metaphor but you get my drift), seeing unprecedented growth
Very instructive post. Thanks. It is a great thing that Apple is able to understand how to deal in China. Something American besides Buicks and fast food works there!
What on earth are you raving on about?
If the "wind is blowing" in the direction of an iPad 3, where's the iPhone nano that people have been saying will come out next month every month since January 2008?
Uh...what? A giant statue erection? Honor? Warrior? Heels? A little kid?
Needless to say, the metaphor went over my head and landed with a thud.
The warrior's the iPad. The little kid is any competing tablet.