UBS ups 2011 iPad estimate to 39.9M, 63% market share

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Analysts for investment bank UBS raised their 2011 forecast for Apple's iPad on Wednesday, predicting total sales of 37.9 million units for a projected 63 percent market share.



Maynard Um issued a note to investors, noting that checks had indicated "soft sell-through for non-iPad tablets." He sees growth in the tablet industry being driven primarily by Apple's touchscreen tablet.



"The tablet market has seen a significant increase in shelf space and competition in the past quarter," Um said, adding that there is "limited visible differentiation" between non-iPad devices. Based on anecdotal retail checks, Samsung and Asustek are stand-outs, while Research in Motion and Hewlett Packard "do not appear to be gaining any critical mass."



According to his calculations, Samsung will sell 5 million tablets in 2011, while Asus is expected to sell 2.2 million. Meanwhile, RIM and HP are projected to sell 1.9 million and 0.8 million respectively.



"Although it is still early, a key risk for the industry could be on inventory correction, particularly for those vendors that are seeing more limited demand," Um wrote.







Looking ahead to 2012, the analyst raised the firm's forecast to 90 million, up from 80 million. UBS expects Apple to sell 53 million next year, leaving the company with a 58 percent share of the market. In the first half of calendar 2011, Apple sold 13.94 million iPads.



Um's upward revision of tablet estimates brings the device's ramp in line with the early stages of the LCD TV market. However, the analyst believes that tablet growth is being driven by utility and broader distribution, rather than the "mass market" pricing that spurred TV sales.



Retail channel checks show that "most stores have moved tablets to prime positions," with retailers like Best Buy created a separate "Tablet Zone" in their stores. According to Um, stores have cleared out older PC inventory and shelf space in order to make room for tablet displays. But, in spite of the increased visibility, he noted that "channel sell-in and sell-through appear likely to be two different stories for the majority of vendors not named Apple."



"Apple continues to dominate the tablet market with its iPad portfolio," he added. "At all retail channels we checked it was by far the most popular tablet being asked about, tested, and bought by consumers."



Alongside the bump in projected tablet sales, Um adjusted PC estimates for 2011 downward. He sees year over year PC growth coming in at 4.5 percent this year, compared to a previous estimate of 6.3 percent. After checking with PC retailers, Um does not expected to see "more aggressive promotions or buying in earnest until early September."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 56
    zindakozindako Posts: 468member
    Where are the real numbers of non Apple tablets sold? What's with all this guessing and assumption game? The iPad is on it's 2nd version. How could we not by now have solid numbers of non Apple tablets sold.
  • Reply 2 of 56
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    If there really are that many android tablets out there then the question has to be, what on earth are people using them for?



    http://www.netmarketshare.com/2011/0...-s-Competition
  • Reply 3 of 56
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by zindako View Post


    Where are the real numbers of non Apple tablets sold? What's with all this guessing and assumption game? The iPad is on it's 2nd version. How could we not by now have solid numbers of non Apple tablets sold.



    Basically because there's no requirement for companies shipping them to tell us assuming that they know.
  • Reply 4 of 56
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by zindako View Post


    Where are the real numbers of non Apple tablets sold? What's with all this guessing and assumption game? The iPad is on it's 2nd version. How could we not by now have solid numbers of non Apple tablets sold.



    Companies prefer to announce unit sales and specific revenues when they can be expressed positively. If the numbers reflect negatively then they try to hide them.
  • Reply 5 of 56
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Another really interesting thing is that even if we assume that the shipped tablet numbers reflected sales, we know from Google's market data that only around 1.3mil android 10inch tablets are in circulation, so the rest must all be 7inch style devices.



    If so, and 7inchs are selling pretty well, and only Apple is selling in the 10inch category why are Lenovo making two different 10inchs? Why are Sony, and HTC releasing 10inchs? Why are HP making a 10inch? Why are Amazon rumoured to be making a 10inch?



    It makes no sense. Hopefully soon we'll get a consumer survey and see what people are actually using, then things may clear up a bit.
  • Reply 6 of 56
    Once MS gets into the market and sell tablets less than cost I would guess a 3% market share for them. Like pay people to buy 'em then say "We got a 30% market share." (over priced Office takes another hit)
  • Reply 7 of 56
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 1,792member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by zindako View Post


    Where are the real numbers of non Apple tablets sold? What's with all this guessing and assumption game? The iPad is on it's 2nd version. How could we not by now have solid numbers of non Apple tablets sold.



    Google has stated, they've activated about a million Android 3.x devices; "real" Android tablets.



    Of course, they never say how many were deactivated do they?
  • Reply 8 of 56
    competition is good. I ilke the fact that the iPad is dropping in market share while gaining in sales. It sounds really bad for apple but its not that bad and it will make it better for us. theres just one thing that bothers me...hp's touchpad. I don't know why but that one just bothers me. I know samsungs is a rip, playbooks fine, xooms dead blah blah blah but I'm just soo happy deep down that the ho touchpad is dieing.



    also, how has the market share dropping so fast? Every day i see people with iPads. Ive seen one sammy tablet and one playbook...those don't add up. Alos the playbook was one of the top selling when it came at 500,000 units. Ipad=9 million. Doesn't add up...even across the 10 or so available tablets
  • Reply 9 of 56
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,660member
    I've seen Android tablet market share estimates based on screen size, OS version (both derived from Google's numbers) and internet usage. They all seem to converge on about 1% of total Android activations being tablets, which puts us at something like 1.2 millions Android tablets in use. Let's be generous and call it 1.5 million.



    Against Apple's figures of 28.73 million sold (and that's really sold, not shipped) it's really hard to see how actual Android market share is much more than 5% at this point, yet we keep seeing this articles that talk about 20, 30, even 40% numbers for Android.



    I guess a horse race is better for the tech media so they're going to keep on pretending that there's some kind of spirited competition going on, but really: it's not even close.
  • Reply 10 of 56
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 1,792member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Another really interesting thing is that even if we assume that the shipped tablet numbers reflected sales, we know from Google's market data that only around 1.3mil android 10inch tablets are in circulation, so the rest must all be 7inch style devices.



    If so, and 7inchs are selling pretty well, and only Apple is selling in the 10inch category why are Lenovo making two different 10inchs? Why are Sony, and HTC releasing 10inchs? Why are HP making a 10inch? Why are Amazon rumoured to be making a 10inch?



    It makes no sense. Hopefully soon we'll get a consumer survey and see what people are actually using, then things may clear up a bit.



    I'm willing to bet Apple will release a 7" device this fall... an iPod touch that is, not an iPad. A 7" inch screen is too small for iPad apps, but would be great for iPod touch apps. They could even keep the resolution the same.



    But of course, all the analysts will group it with media players and not consider it a tablet.
  • Reply 11 of 56
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 1,792member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by pooman625 View Post


    also, how has the market share dropping so fast? Every day i see people with iPads. Ive seen one sammy tablet and one playbook...those don't add up. Alos the playbook was one of the top selling when it came at 500,000 units. Ipad=9 million. Doesn't add up...even across the 10 or so available tablets



    Market share doesn't mean sales to end user, it means how many have been sold and put on the market.
  • Reply 12 of 56
    addaboxaddabox Posts: 12,660member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post


    Another really interesting thing is that even if we assume that the shipped tablet numbers reflected sales, we know from Google's market data that only around 1.3mil android 10inch tablets are in circulation, so the rest must all be 7inch style devices.



    If so, and 7inchs are selling pretty well, and only Apple is selling in the 10inch category why are Lenovo making two different 10inchs? Why are Sony, and HTC releasing 10inchs? Why are HP making a 10inch? Why are Amazon rumoured to be making a 10inch?



    It makes no sense. Hopefully soon we'll get a consumer survey and see what people are actually using, then things may clear up a bit.



    That's not my take on Google's numbers. The tablet category is shown to be from 7"-10", while the next size down for some reason slightly overlaps on the 7" end. That might just be an artifact of how they drew their graph, but certainly 7" devices aren't excluded from the tablet (extra large) designation, and there's no reason to think that there's some significant number of 7" tablets that are mysteriously being assigned to the lower sized group and thus excluded from tablet-hood.
  • Reply 13 of 56
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    I've seen Android tablet market share estimates based on screen size, OS version (both derived from Google's numbers) and internet usage. They all seem to converge on about 1% of total Android activations being tablets, which puts us at something like 1.2 millions Android tablets in use. Let's be generous and call it 1.5 million.



    Against Apple's figures of 28.73 million sold (and that's really sold, not shipped) it's really hard to see how actual Android market share is much more than 5% at this point, yet we keep seeing this articles that talk about 20, 30, even 40% numbers for Android.



    I guess a horse race is better for the tech media so they're going to keep on pretending that there's some kind of spirited competition going on, but really: it's not even close.



    Actually if you look at the browser share study I linked you'll see that the 7inch G-tab is the top rated android device, at a little more than the Xoom. So plausibly as many as 3million Android tablets, based on the assumed 1.5mil 10inchs.



    Thing is the same study shows the iPad being used over 30times as much as the two top Android tablets combined. Implying under a million android tabs at both sizes combined.



    So either Honeycomb users visit the Google app store disproportionately often and are even rarer than we thought, or android has almost no penetration in western markets and is confined to asia.
  • Reply 14 of 56
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by addabox View Post


    That's not my take on Google's numbers. The tablet category is shown to be from 7"-10", while the next size down for some reason slightly overlaps on the 7" end. That might just be an artifact of how they drew their graph, but certainly 7" devices aren't excluded from the tablet (extra large) designation, and there's no reason to think that there's some significant number of 7" tablets that are mysteriously being assigned to the lower sized group.



    No - we know that the 7inch tabs run Froyo, and the X-L numbers precisely match the Honeycomb numbers. So the X-L tabs are only the 10inchers.

    Edit: Either that or there are a lot of people running experimental builds of honeycomb on their g-tabs.
  • Reply 15 of 56
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mjtomlin View Post


    But of course, all the analysts will group it with media players and not consider it a tablet.



    They're including the 5inch Dell Streak, so presumably they would.
  • Reply 16 of 56
    chabigchabig Posts: 622member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post


    Maynard Um issued a note to investors, noting that checks had indicated "soft sell-through for non-iPad tablets."



    He must have been misquoted, for I'm sure he meant "smooth sell-through."
  • Reply 17 of 56
    sevenfeetsevenfeet Posts: 390member
    I travel a lot for work and just got back from the airport. In a year I've never seen a non-iPad in an airport or at my customers. The only non-iPad I've seen in the wild was one of my barber's owns...a Blackberry. My other barber has an iPad 2. All of my business customers either have iPads or are buying them. All of them.
  • Reply 18 of 56
    cloudgazercloudgazer Posts: 2,161member
  • Reply 19 of 56
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cloudgazer View Post






    Area 51? The SCP Foundation? Warehouse 13?
  • Reply 20 of 56
    solipsismsolipsism Posts: 25,726member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    Area 51? The SCP Foundation? Warehouse 13?



    1) I assume he means that is a warehouse full of unsold Android tablets.



    2) I think the screenshot is from Indiana Jones, where the Arc of the Covenent is stored, so it is Area 51.
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