'Stagnant' 2011 PC ecosystem viewed as opportunity for Apple to make gains
Both Apple's Mac and iPad lineup are poised to make significant gains in the second half of 2011, as the Windows-based PC market remains "relatively stagnant" and is predicted to see 4 percent growth, according to a new analysis.
Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore believes the traditional PC market does not have "meaningful new offerings" coming this year, while Apple is aggressive with both new hardware and software. Heading into the back-to-school and holiday season, he sees Apple as "particularly well positioned for more share gains."
Specifically, Whitmore cited the recent launch of Mac OS X 10.7 Lion, as well as Thunderbolt-equipped MacBook Airs introduced last month as key products in driving Apple's market share gains.
While Whitmore sees the Mac making further inroads, he has projected the PC market will grow 4 percent this year, a number that is below Wall Street consensus. He said while corporate PC demand is healthy, consumer demand for Windows-based machines, particularly in developed markets, has disappointed.
"Our recent checks with the PC supply chain suggest overall orders have softened modestly in the past several weeks due to weaker European and U.S. consumer (notebook) demand and more conservative back-to-school expectations from OEMs," he said.
Further helping Apple's cause are the troubles apparently faced by PC makers looking to develop the Intel-based "Ultrabook" specification for thin-and-light notebooks. Whitmore said PC manufacturers have suggested that Ultrabook production won't ramp up materially until 2012, as the industry struggles to compete with the pricing of Apple's MacBook Air.
While the Mac alone is predicted to earn market share gains at the expense of Windows-based PCs, factoring in the iPad makes Apple's growth even greater. Calling it the "Gold Standard" of the tablet market, Whitmore said the iPad will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future, while competitors, like the recently discounted HP TouchPad, are expected to struggle.
Whitmore said Apple will make it even more difficult for the competition this fall, when it launches its next-generation mobile operating system, iOS 5. The fifth major version of iOS will add features like Notification Center, iMessage and Newsstand to the iPad, as well as the iPhone and iPod touch, when it becomes freely available later this year.
Deutsche Bank analyst Chris Whitmore believes the traditional PC market does not have "meaningful new offerings" coming this year, while Apple is aggressive with both new hardware and software. Heading into the back-to-school and holiday season, he sees Apple as "particularly well positioned for more share gains."
Specifically, Whitmore cited the recent launch of Mac OS X 10.7 Lion, as well as Thunderbolt-equipped MacBook Airs introduced last month as key products in driving Apple's market share gains.
While Whitmore sees the Mac making further inroads, he has projected the PC market will grow 4 percent this year, a number that is below Wall Street consensus. He said while corporate PC demand is healthy, consumer demand for Windows-based machines, particularly in developed markets, has disappointed.
"Our recent checks with the PC supply chain suggest overall orders have softened modestly in the past several weeks due to weaker European and U.S. consumer (notebook) demand and more conservative back-to-school expectations from OEMs," he said.
Further helping Apple's cause are the troubles apparently faced by PC makers looking to develop the Intel-based "Ultrabook" specification for thin-and-light notebooks. Whitmore said PC manufacturers have suggested that Ultrabook production won't ramp up materially until 2012, as the industry struggles to compete with the pricing of Apple's MacBook Air.
While the Mac alone is predicted to earn market share gains at the expense of Windows-based PCs, factoring in the iPad makes Apple's growth even greater. Calling it the "Gold Standard" of the tablet market, Whitmore said the iPad will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future, while competitors, like the recently discounted HP TouchPad, are expected to struggle.
Whitmore said Apple will make it even more difficult for the competition this fall, when it launches its next-generation mobile operating system, iOS 5. The fifth major version of iOS will add features like Notification Center, iMessage and Newsstand to the iPad, as well as the iPhone and iPod touch, when it becomes freely available later this year.
Comments
I think 4% for PCs is optimistic.
I think now the universe is imploding that any projections are even more a guess than they were before.
On a more serious note I think that Apple is in a great position. Thanks to the iPod, the IPhone and the iPad it has an amazing reputation amongst consumers for quality - even luxury. As consumers get wealthier their purchases become more and more about lifestyle and aspiration, and less about necessity. Nobody aspires to an Acer netbook.
that spike for apple is misleading.
Great graph, I love the huge increase that is in no way supported by history. Apple is selling great, but there are not huge lines at the stores to purchase as this graph would need.
The graph is of Notebook sales including iPads. 10 million iPads were sold last quarter, implying that IDC measures the total notebook market as 50million units per quarter. Which of those numbers do you not agree with?
that graph is terrible... what would be more useful would show an overlay of the iPads inclusion in the PC marketshare metric rather than have 2 entries for 2Q11...
that spike for apple is misleading.
Agreed. I would like to see the Mac and iPad as separate entries.
The graph is of Notebook sales including iPads. 10 million iPads were sold last quarter, implying that IDC measures the total notebook market as 50million units per quarter. Which of those numbers do you not agree with?
I don't disagree with the numbers, but rather the interpretation - and the fact that they're plotting 'notebook sales including iPads' at all.
An iPad isn't a notebook.
They could also plot 'notebook sales including SUVs'. Or 'notebook sales including ham sandwiches' and get an equally valid graph.
I don't disagree with the numbers, but rather the interpretation - and the fact that they're plotting 'notebook sales including iPads' at all.
An iPad isn't a notebook.
They could also plot 'notebook sales including SUVs'. Or 'notebook sales including ham sandwiches' and get an equally valid graph.
Neither SUVs nor ham sandwiches are products made by Apple.
I don't disagree with the numbers, but rather the interpretation - and the fact that they're plotting 'notebook sales including iPads' at all.
An iPad isn't a notebook.
They could also plot 'notebook sales including SUVs'. Or 'notebook sales including ham sandwiches' and get an equally valid graph.
The iPad isn't a notebook but it is a portable computer. MS has gone on record saying that the tablet is a PC (even if they only mean their tablets) so it's reasonable for people to produce graphs showing what that would actually imply if we took it seriously.
http://canalys.com/newsroom/wintel-s...falls-under-82
Gartner and IDC will probably follow with their "media tablet" analysis.
Yes that graph is pretty poor. More detailed info from Canalys.
http://canalys.com/newsroom/wintel-s...falls-under-82
Gartner and IDC will probably follow with their "media tablet" analysis.
image: http://canalys.com/static/press_rele...hipments-1.gif
image: http://canalys.com/static/press_rele...hipments-2.gif
The Canalys graph states the category better.
I think now the universe is imploding that any projections are even more a guess than they were before.
" . . . quit whining. Pessimism is for losers." -- Rob Delaney, via Gruber, yesterday.
I agree that pediction, especially of the future, is difficult. (I can never remember what physicist said that.)
But since we're at the beginning of Apple's benign colonization of everybody's pocket, and lap, and office, desk and bedroom, you might better be postulating that the universe is expanding.
"Everybody" includes China, Japan, Korea, Indonesia, India, Africa, Central and South America, Europe, Australia, Russia, etc., and even the fortress of backwardness, the USA. I can't say "North America" because the Canadians already know what's going on. What's going on is that the computer is being liberated by and for humans after 25 years of incompetent rule under the PC regime.
There has never been a revolution in the world's consciousness like the one that is coming, and too many people are looking for new ways to spread fear. The universe is not imploding.
Edit: "Prediction is very difficult, especially of the future." Niels Bohr, who said he was quoting Storm P., Danish writer and artist.
Neither SUVs nor ham sandwiches are products made by Apple.
Never been to the cafeteria at 1 Infinite Loop, have you?
They make a delicious SUV.
Wait...
Neither SUVs nor ham sandwiches are products made by Apple.
And iPads aren't made by HP or Dell, either. What's your point?
The iPad isn't a notebook but it is a portable computer. MS has gone on record saying that the tablet is a PC (even if they only mean their tablets) so it's reasonable for people to produce graphs showing what that would actually imply if we took it seriously.
Then they should report on all portable computers. However, they should then include Android tablets and possibly even smartphones, as well.
It's insane to publish data about notebooks and add in only a single product from a single vendor.
And iPads aren't made by HP or Dell, either. What's your point?
Then they should report on all portable computers. However, they should then include Android tablets and possibly even smartphones, as well.
It's insane to publish data about notebooks and add in only a single product from a single vendor.
I sell iPads for a living, and I can say without a doubt customers are coming in by the truckload to do one thing: ditch their notebook for an iPad. This is by the thousands. On a daily basis my shop is filled with one type of person "How can I get rid of this notebook and fit an iPad into my business or personal life. Better, how do I do both?"
That question is answered in a few steps, and the accessories I help sell them to accomplish this all factor into it.
I hate to be the bearer of bad news guys, but the iPad IS replacing notebooks. Not MAYBE or KINDA, but it IS. This is why they have included notebook sales with the iPad.
The answer isn't categories, denial, anger, or frustration at math.
The answer is we're seeing a dying market of product, and the birth of a new one to replace it.
You can embrace this fact, or hide in a corner. They are side by side, and they are moving forward with or without your mind in the right spot.
And iPads aren't made by HP or Dell, either. What's your point?
Then they should report on all portable computers. However, they should then include Android tablets and possibly even smartphones, as well.
It's insane to publish data about notebooks and add in only a single product from a single vendor.
The other tablets are probably a negligible amount of market share. They may be included though. Contractual agreements also seem to consider the iPad a computer and not a mobile device. All of these categories are silly... Why can't we just look at something meaningful to investors... like profits?