Apple on pace to sell record 4.5M Macs this quarter

Posted:
in Current Mac Hardware edited January 2014
The latest sales figures from the NPD Group show Apple's Mac platform is set to have its best quarter ever, with sales on pace to hit 4.5 million.



Analyst Gene Munster with Piper Jaffray said on Monday the latest data from NPD suggests Apple will sell between 4.4 million and 4.6 million Macs in the September quarter. His figures are based on NPD's U.S. data, which tracked Mac sales up 22 percent in July and August.



Munster said August Mac sales benefitted from a full month of Mac OS X Lion being available, after the operating system launched in July. In addition, Mac sales were also strengthened by a tailwind from newly refreshed MacBook Air and Mac mini models.



Looking forward, Munster expects those tailwinds to fade in September, prompting him to leave his estimates the same. Wall Street expects Apple to sell about 4.5 million Macs this quarter, which Munster said aligns with the latest domestic NPD data.



Further, the analyst has estimated that the MacBook Air will represent between 10 percent and 20 percent of total Mac units in the September quarter. The MacBook Air lineup, including the entry-level $999 11.6-inch model, launched with Intel's Sandy Bridge processors and the new high-speed Thunderbolt port in July.







A month ago, the NPD sales figures first revealed that Mac sales were up 26 percent year over year in the month of July. Going forward, it will be difficult for Apple to maintain such year over year growth, as comparisons from 2010 will be less favorable for the company.



Sales of 4.1 million Macs would easily be a record for Apple. The company's previous best came in the holiday quarter of 2010, when 4.1 million Macs were sold.



As for the iPod lineup, Munster said the latest NPD data shows Apple is on track to sell between 7.2 million and 7.7 million units in the September quarter. Sales for the first two months of the quarter were down 16 percent year over year.



Wall Street expects Apple to report sales of about 7 million iPods, which would mean the company is tracking to beat estimates on its portable media players. Piper Jaffray has maintained its "overweight" rating for AAPL stock with a price target of $607.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 44
    If I recall, just a few days ago, another analyst claimed that iPhone sales were brisk, but Mac sales would be weak. Investors honestly can't depend on these analysts for anything solid when covering Apple. They're all over the place with their sales numbers. Not that it matters one way or the other, since Apple shares will be heading down, as usual, along with the rest of the market.



    I'm hoping that if the next iPod Touch contains a 3G chip, it might lift iPod sales a bit in the future without damaging iPhone sales. I'm curious to see whether or not the iPod Classic will remain part of the iPod lineup. I may have to buy a 160 GB model to replace my trusty old 30 GB model, before they completely disappear.
  • Reply 2 of 44
    mcarlingmcarling Posts: 1,106member
    I expect Apple to sell more than 5 million Macs next quarter, the holiday quarter.
  • Reply 4 of 44
    I bought one. 27 inch quad core I5 to replace my white plastic first intel iMac which can't run Lion. Loving it.
  • Reply 5 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post


    If I recall, just a few days ago, another analyst claimed that iPhone sales were brisk, but Mac sales would be weak. Investors honestly can't depend on these analysts for anything solid when covering Apple. They're all over the place with their sales numbers. Not that it matters one way or the other, since Apple shares will be heading down, as usual, along with the rest of the market.



    I'm hoping that if the next iPod Touch contains a 3G chip, it might lift iPod sales a bit in the future without damaging iPhone sales. I'm curious to see whether or not the iPod Classic will remain part of the iPod lineup. I may have to buy a 160 GB model to replace my trusty old 30 GB model, before they completely disappear.



    How do you figure? Long term trends for AAPL have always been up including through this economy. Sure you can expect a momentary dip as the US hits its debt ceiling etc. That just represents a buying opportunity. The P/E ratio is very good.



    Apple has a long way to go until they are no longer a growth company. I hear in passing all the time about people swearing they are going to switch to OS X or move from Android to iPhone. I never hear the opposite.
  • Reply 6 of 44
    Reason enough for shares to tank.
  • Reply 7 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by esummers View Post


    How do you figure? Long term trends for AAPL have always been up including through this economy. Sure you can expect a momentary dip as the US hits its debt ceiling etc. That just represents a buying opportunity. The P/E ratio is very good.



    Correct.



    AAPL is +400% versus the S&P 500 over the past five years. No stock is immune to larger fluctuations in the market, however AAPL has been a very strong performer and their forward P/E is impressive.
  • Reply 8 of 44
    Let's face it. Apple's Mac growth has been abysmal. They simply need cheaper machines to capture any marketshare. And maybe they have decided against that.



    I've been buying and using Macs for over 20 years and have bought 5 iphones, 3 MacBook Pros, 3 iPads, and an AppleTV in the last two years, for anyone who thinks I'm trolling, cause only trolls have bad things to say about Apple, right? A troll is someone who can't rationalize that Apple does everything right.



    Okay, I just assume Apple has written off most of the PC market. Which is fine. They just won't have much growth. Only so many people are going to pay for their prices and margins.



    Tim Cook talks about growth, but will it happen? Will a cheaper laptop kill off iPad sales?
  • Reply 9 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by patrickf View Post


    Let's face it. Apple's Mac growth has been abysmal. They simply need cheaper machines to capture any marketshare. And maybe they have decided against that.



    I've been buying and using Macs for over 20 years and have bought 5 iphones, 3 MacBook Pros, 3 iPads, and an AppleTV in the last two years, for anyone who thinks I'm trolling, cause only trolls have bad things to say about Apple, right? A troll is someone who can't rationalize that Apple does everything right.



    Okay, I just assume Apple has written off most of the PC market. Which is fine. They just won't have much growth. Only so many people are going to pay for their prices and margins.



    Tim Cook talks about growth, but will it happen? Will a cheaper laptop kill off iPad sales?



    No a troll is someone who tries to provoke responses from forum members by deliberately spreading lies or hate.



    23% Y/Y growth with Apple's current market penetration is impressive. Apple doesn't need to undercut to win. With all of the companies getting out of the PC business (or in financial trouble) these days I think they have the winning strategy. IBM and HP are out. Dell and Acer are struggling. Apple doesn't cost that much more yet has an operating system that is attracting switchers. They are building their OS and products in a way that can sustain them as a company.
  • Reply 10 of 44
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by patrickf View Post


    Let's face it. Apple's Mac growth has been abysmal. They simply need cheaper machines to capture any marketshare. And maybe they have decided against that.



    I've been buying and using Macs for over 20 years and have bought 5 iphones, 3 MacBook Pros, 3 iPads, and an AppleTV in the last two years, for anyone who thinks I'm trolling, cause only trolls have bad things to say about Apple, right? A troll is someone who can't rationalize that Apple does everything right.



    Okay, I just assume Apple has written off most of the PC market. Which is fine. They just won't have much growth. Only so many people are going to pay for their prices and margins.



    Tim Cook talks about growth, but will it happen? Will a cheaper laptop kill off iPad sales?



    Wow. Just wow.



    What planet do you live on?

    - Mac market share has roughly doubled in the past 5 years.

    - In the market Apple targets (premium machines purchased by people who value quality over price), Apple's market share is huge - some reports say that Apple sells 90% of computers over $1,000.

    - Apple makes something like 1/3 of the entire industry's profits

    - The market share numbers reported (something like 6% globally and 10-11% in the U.S. are based on volume. If you do market share based on dollars, the numbers are dramatically higher.

    - Apple is one of the top 5 vendors in the US and globally. If you include the iPad, they're #1.



    So what possible logic would make them want to cut prices significantly to go after the low-end market where they can't make any money?
  • Reply 11 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post


    Wow. Just wow.



    What planet do you live on?

    - Mac market share has roughly doubled in the past 5 years.

    - In the market Apple targets (premium machines purchased by people who value quality over price), Apple's market share is huge - some reports say that Apple sells 90% of computers over $1,000.

    - Apple makes something like 1/3 of the entire industry's profits

    - The market share numbers reported (something like 6% globally and 10-11% in the U.S. are based on volume. If you do market share based on dollars, the numbers are dramatically higher.

    - Apple is one of the top 5 vendors in the US and globally. If you include the iPad, they're #1.



    So what possible logic would make them want to cut prices significantly to go after the low-end market where they can't make any money?



    It might seem that the growth was significant, but double is not much when you were not selling much to begin with. 2-2.5 million Macs a quarter is nothing. Double that is better. So they came out of obscurity to double their growth. Big deal.



    I know a lot of people who can't afford a Mac. They want one. They can't afford one, so they buy a PC.



    Apple has very high margins. We all know that.



    I was not meaning to criticize. Apple does not want greater market share at the loss of high margins. That is plain and simple. Tim Cook said he wants to grow market share. How can you grow market share when you have 90% of the sales of PCs over $1,000? That's pretty maxed out.



    Compared to all of the PCs sales, Mac sales are low.



    In the end, who really cares? If Apple wants to grow market share, they obviously know how to do it. If they find a way to sell at $700 computer and want to do that, great. If they don't want to do that, fine. Big deal and who cares?



    Apple could, but won't, have 75% of the computer market. What's the gain to have high volume, low margins?



    And these forums are designed to provoke thought and discussion, not to be an Apple love-fest.



    P
  • Reply 12 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by esummers View Post


    No a troll is someone who tries to provoke responses from forum members by deliberately spreading lies or hate.



    23% Y/Y growth with Apple's current market penetration is impressive. Apple doesn't need to undercut to win. With all of the companies getting out of the PC business (or in financial trouble) these days I think they have the winning strategy. IBM and HP are out. Dell and Acer are struggling. Apple doesn't cost that much more yet has an operating system that is attracting switchers. They are building their OS and products in a way that can sustain them as a company.



    They should have a little bit cheaper laptop. Like $799. They could get 25% more market share and a heartbeat. But that is what I would do and that's just me.



    In the end, who cares.
  • Reply 13 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mcarling View Post


    I expect Apple to sell more than 5 million Macs next quarter, the holiday quarter.



    Yeah, in terms of arbitrary milestones, this is the one I've been waiting for. 4+ million is getting boring. I want to see the number 5!
  • Reply 14 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by patrickf View Post


    It might seem that the growth was significant, but double is not much when you were not selling much to begin with. 2-2.5 million Macs a quarter is nothing. Double that is better. So they came out of obscurity to double their growth. Big deal.



    I know a lot of people who can't afford a Mac. They want one. They can't afford one, so they buy a PC.



    Apple has very high margins. We all know that.



    I was not meaning to criticize. Apple does not want greater market share at the loss of high margins. That is plain and simple. Tim Cook said he wants to grow market share. How can you grow market share when you have 90% of the sales of PCs over $1,000? That's pretty maxed out.



    Compared to all of the PCs sales, Mac sales are low.



    In the end, who really cares? If Apple wants to grow market share, they obviously know how to do it. If they find a way to sell at $700 computer and want to do that, great. If they don't want to do that, fine. Big deal and who cares?



    Apple could, but won't, have 75% of the computer market. What's the gain to have high volume, low margins?



    And these forums are designed to provoke thought and discussion, not to be an Apple love-fest.



    P



    Well said, Patrick.



    I'd personally love to get an iMac, but am not willing to buy one when I could get the same specs in a PC for several hundred dollars less. Love my iPad and iPhone though!
  • Reply 15 of 44
    I think Patrick has a point. Apples record sales are still record sales even if global market share is low. Apples profit per Mac sold is huge. They would never compete on price. Look wgat HP just did to see why. So if you ever want a cheap Mac dream on I think. Or get an iPad.
  • Reply 16 of 44
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by tonyhrx View Post


    I think Patrick has a point. Apples record sales are still record sales even if global market share is low. Apples profit per Mac sold is huge. They would never compete on price. Look wgat HP just did to see why. So if you ever want a cheap Mac dream on I think. Or get an iPad.



    Welcome to the forums!



    I don't think he's insinuating that they should drop prices a ton, but surely they have some wiggle room, right? Would it be worth it to lower the price some and make less margin on the front end, but get the customer even more embedded into the Apple ecosystem? Would result in more software sales and maybe even Applecare sales? *shrug*
  • Reply 17 of 44
    MacProMacPro Posts: 17,382member
    Post PC era, dawn of Mac and iOS era.



    (a PC is a Wintel Box not a Mac trolls)
  • Reply 18 of 44
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,008member
    What else is new? Every new quarter for Apple is pretty much a record quarter.
  • Reply 19 of 44
    MacProMacPro Posts: 17,382member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post


    What else is new? Every new quarter for Apple is pretty much a record quarter.



    Funny how we simply accept that these days as par for the course! Can you imagine the stock reaction if just once they didn't!
  • Reply 20 of 44
    MacProMacPro Posts: 17,382member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Freshmaker View Post


    Welcome to the forums!



    I don't think he's insinuating that they should drop prices a ton, but surely they have some wiggle room, right? Would it be worth it to lower the price some and make less margin on the front end, but get the customer even more embedded into the Apple ecosystem? Would result in more software sales and maybe even Applecare sales? *shrug*



    Why wiggle when you don't have to?
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