iPad tablet market share will dip to 50% by 2017, study says

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Market research firm NPD estimates that Apple's share of the tablet space will dwindle to just over 50 percent by 2017, while Android and Windows-based devices will begin continue to eat into the iPad's overwhelming lead by 2014.

The findings were reported in NPD Group subsidiary DisplaySearch's Tablet Quarterly on Thursday which estimates that the overall tablet market will swell from 81.6 million units in 2011 to 424.9 million units by 2017.

The report notes that worldwide tablet shipments will surpass those of notebooks by 2016 driven by an increasing set of features, operating system diversity and manufacturing capacity.

?So far in this relatively young product category, the tablet PC market has been dominated by Apple and has tended to include a number of competing products that are similarly configured to the iPad,? said NPD DisplaySearch Senior Analyst Richard Shim. ?However, as the market matures and competitors become better attuned to consumer preferences and find opportunities to break new ground, we expect the landscape to change dramatically, giving consumers more choices, which will drive demand for more devices.?

One of the main differentiators between the variety of tablets currently and the proposed future is which operating system is used, and thus far Apple's iOS has dominated the space since its introduction in 2010.

As of the first quarter of 2012, research firm IDC saw the iPad as owning 68 percent share of the entire tablet market.

NPD expects that Apple's share will fall from 72.1 percent in 2012 to reach 50.9 percent in 2017, while Android and Windows RT tablet shipments will grow from 22.5 percent to 40.5 percent and 1.5 percent to 7.5 percent, respectively.

NPD iPad
Source: NPD DisplaySearch


The findings are slightly different than recent numbers posted by Gartner that said the iPad will have less than a 50 percent share of the market by 2016.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 109
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 4,289member
    Who comes up with sh!t??!! I mean really, you can predict 5 years into the future??!! Predict me the next lotto numbers.

    Assuming Apple stops all innovation from this point forward, then that might be the case.
  • Reply 2 of 109
    lmgslmgs Posts: 63member


    Also in 2017, pigs will fly..image

  • Reply 3 of 109
    cycomikocycomiko Posts: 716member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sflocal View Post



    Who comes up with sh!t??!! I mean really, you can predict 5 years into the future??!! Predict me the next lotto numbers.

    Assuming Apple stops all innovation from this point forward, then that might be the case.


    one would assume that, at least in shaped off past market performance, you can come up with more accurate figures than being right 1:14,000,000 or less.

  • Reply 4 of 109
    ivladivlad Posts: 738member


    Unless Google gets serious with Tablets, this will not happen. Windows maybe, because they are pouring everything they have into their next OS. But this is predicted with this year's devices, no one knows what kind of iPad Apple is going to make in two years, or if iOS makes its way into OS X.


     


    In conclusion, this report is BS.

  • Reply 5 of 109
    hunabkuhunabku Posts: 55member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sflocal View Post



    Who comes up with sh!t??!! I mean really, you can predict 5 years into the future??!! Predict me the next lotto numbers.

    Assuming Apple stops all innovation from this point forward, then that might be the case.


     


    Agreed!  So far everyone who has made a prediction about how ipads market share would drop has blown it.  Now a new a$$ clown decides to adjust accordingly with the smallest drop in market share yet (over 5 year time span).  He obviously has a better grasp on reality  ;  )

  • Reply 6 of 109
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    Nope.

  • Reply 7 of 109
    apfeltoshapfeltosh Posts: 31member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sflocal View Post



    Who comes up with sh!t??!! I mean really, you can predict 5 years into the future??!! Predict me the next lotto numbers.

    Assuming Apple stops all innovation from this point forward, then that might be the case.


     


    They use existing sales trends, interview stores for buying trends across the various products, then run algorithms to try and predict the future. This is done in every industry so why are you surprised? Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever? Seriously, are you that naive? Apple has had leads in the past and squandered them before so WAKE UP.

  • Reply 8 of 109
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Apfeltosh View Post

    Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever?


     


    Yes.


     


    Quote:



    Apple has had leads in the past and squandered them before…



     


    Which?


     


    Quote:


    …so WAKE UP.



     


    Get back to saving your lost company. image

  • Reply 9 of 109
    atchijovatchijov Posts: 10member


    Amazing how they can predict how well Windows RT is going to do based on no data whatsoever. The dam thing does not properly exists yet.  Also, as far as I remember most of Android recent grows was due to Kindle Fire.  Just couple days ago I read that Fire sales going down like lead balloon. Most of market research is BS (and rest is stating obvious things).  Things do change rather fast, there is no way in hell anyone can predict it.  

  • Reply 10 of 109
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Remember all those analysts predicting that WinMo would be the future market leader in smartphone OSes? And that was before WinPh was released or announced.

    apfeltosh wrote:
    Do you honestly believe Apple will maintain the lead it has now forever?
    Yes.
    Let's examine this... so in 100 years, 1000 years, and 100,000 years you think Apple will still be leading the pack?

    They certainly have plenty of momentum to push them even farther ahead for the forseeable future, but you can't say forever.
  • Reply 11 of 109


    Please, don't even give this article the slightest bit of credibility by posting a reason why or why not this will happen. Probability one of the most stupid articles ever written on this site. I'm embarrassed for AI.

  • Reply 12 of 109
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post

    Let's examine this... so in 100 years, 1000 years, and 100,000 years you think Apple will still be leading the pack?


     


    Yes. Semantics!


     


    Quote:


    They certainly have plenty of momentum to push them even farther ahead for the forseeable future, but you can't say forever.



     


    Sure I can! It just doesn't have to be true! image

  • Reply 13 of 109
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Sure I can! It just doesn't have to be true! :lol:

    Touché.
  • Reply 14 of 109


    I really like how this number keeps getting pushed further and further away. First it was 2012, 2013, 2014, etc etc. At this time next year there will be analysts saying "okay it will DEFINITELY, probably, dip to 50% by 2018."

  • Reply 15 of 109
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MusicComposer View Post

    I really like how this number keeps getting pushed further and further away. First it was 2012, 2013, 2014, etc etc. At this time next year there will be analysts saying "okay it will DEFINITELY, probably, dip to 50% by 2018."


     


    I like how the number keeps getting lower, too.

  • Reply 16 of 109
    macxpressmacxpress Posts: 4,616member


    Who knows what we'll be using in 5yrs. I don't think 5 years ago we thought we'd be using iPads and iPhones either. There's always something that comes up better. Apple just has to stay ahead of the game. Keep being a trend setter and not a follower like everyone else. This is kind of a pointless article. 

  • Reply 17 of 109


    What makes this especially laughable is that the iPhone was introduced just 5.25 years ago in January. Back up one day before that, and imagine NPD's forecast for Apple's market share in phones, tablets, and other touch devices. Based on past performance, the market share would be zero in 2012, and zero in 2017. Remember that Facebook was only opened to the public 5.5 years ago. Instagram was sold for $1 billion after being in business for 18 months! No technologist has any business predicting 5 years ahead. 

  • Reply 18 of 109
    lightstrikerlightstriker Posts: 458member


    But by 2015 Apple will begin pouring all its resources into Monster Truck and literally crush the competition.

  • Reply 19 of 109
    peter236peter236 Posts: 254member


    If Apple does not release a smaller iPad, its market share will become smaller. Even the fan boys know this.

  • Reply 20 of 109
    originalgoriginalg Posts: 381member


    "The report notes that worldwide tablet shipments..."


     


    Come on guys, they're talking about SHIPMENTS!  image

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