Apple forecast to sell 102M iPads, 194M iPhones in 2013

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
With 100 million iPads sold in its first two and a half years, Apple is predicted to sell another 100 million in just one 12-month span thanks in part to the addition of the iPad mini.

Michael Walkley of Canaccord Genuity has forecast that Apple will sell 101.6 million iPads in calendar year 2013. Based on his model, that would give Apple a commanding 58.4 percent of the total tablet market.

The prediction comes soon after Apple revealed that total iPad sales crossed 100 million earlier this month. The first iPad debuted in March of 2010.

With Apple again dominating the tablet market, Walkley sees Amazon selling 10.7 million total tablets in 2013, while Samsung is projected to sell 8.4 million tablets.

iPad mini


Beyond the iPad, Walkley sees the iPhone selling 193.9 million units in 2013. Combined with 303.6 million projected handset sales from Samsung, the two rivals are expected to control more than 50 percent of the smartphone market.

Showing the disparity in the market between Apple and Samsung versus the competition, the next highest projected smartphone maker is Huawei, with sales of 47.9 million smartphones forecast for 2013.

In fact, Walkley estimates that Apple and Samsung captured 106 percent of handset industry profits during the third quarter of 2012. He arrived at that number by considering the operating losses seen at companies such as Research in Motion, Nokia and Motorola during the September quarter.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 36


    Stock to go down to $300 a share.

  • Reply 2 of 36


    This is all based on the assumption that Apple can ramp up production to keep up with demand.  There was also no mention of Windows 8 / MS Surface and how that will impact sales. This is more of a threat to Apple, on the tablet side, than Android.

  • Reply 3 of 36
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 4,078member
    But didn't Ballmer just tell everyone that the surface tablet was the one everyone wanted? Am I missing something?
  • Reply 4 of 36
    allenbfallenbf Posts: 993member
    I can see it happening. I think businesses will adopt the iPad mini in droves, due to smaller form and lower price.
  • Reply 5 of 36
    Because the Surface starts at $500, (realistically $600 because they will want the keyboard), I don't see it as a real threat..

    Only if the Surface Pro started in around that price point would I have considered it a real threat.. but as people realize that the RT edition is limited to the app market, same as apple, I think they would mostly opt for an iPad Mini, Nexus 7, or standard iPad..

    Coming into this tablet market with an offering, when you're not already established, thats $500 or more is not going to get you traction..

    Microsoft is going to have to do some hard marketing and partnering with chains like Best Buy, to really get this thing going off the shelves.
  • Reply 6 of 36
    philboogiephilboogie Posts: 7,387member
    To those that will be buying one of those 8.4 million Samsung tablets in 2013: at least you'll have two fantastic days; the day you buy it and the day you'll sell it.
  • Reply 7 of 36

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post



    Michael Walkley of Canaccord Genuity has forecast that Apple will sell 101.6 million iPads in calendar year 2013.


     


    Already setting up Apple for the next quarters "miss".


     


    Analysts have such a great job. Make up bogus prediction, when it fails to happen, it isn't your fault, it is the fault of the company that had no input, nor any agreement with your prediction.


     


    image

  • Reply 8 of 36

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Adrayven View Post



    Because the Surface starts at $500, (realistically $600 because they will want the keyboard), I don't see it as a real threat..

    Only if the Surface Pro started in around that price point would I have considered it a real threat.. but as people realize that the RT edition is limited to the app market, same as apple, I think they would mostly opt for an iPad Mini, Nexus 7, or standard iPad..

    Coming into this tablet market with an offering, when you're not already established, thats $500 or more is not going to get you traction..

    Microsoft is going to have to do some hard marketing and partnering with chains like Best Buy, to really get this thing going off the shelves.


    Remember for $599, you get not only the keyboard but a free copy of Office 2013.  For those that need and rely on Office (think college students) and want a device of this type, that's a big selling feature.  And the apps for the Windows Marketplace are coming. There's already 10,000 at launch. Not a bad start.


     


    Surface Pro will be appeal a lot to Enterprises.  It runs Office (which owns the business space), is backward compatible with LOB Win32 apps, and has excellent integration with MS' servers - all big pluses when trying to sell to business customers. Yes, I realize the iPad has had strong momentum in businesses, and for Apple's sake hopefully they can continue that, but how long can they keep that going?

  • Reply 9 of 36
    rot'napplerot'napple Posts: 1,839member


    Someone please help me pick my jaw off the floor!  WOW!! image


    /


    /

  • Reply 10 of 36


    Personally I'm reaching the limit of how fast I can upgrade my devices. I have an iphone 5 so I won't be upgrading next year unless there is some have to have feature. Ipad I have a 3rd gen so until it becomes lighter I'm happy. I think I will soon be in the market for a new Imac but those are out this year . The only way they can do this is, is if they keep expanding there consumer base.

  • Reply 11 of 36

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sflocal View Post



    But didn't Ballmer just tell everyone that the surface tablet was the one everyone wanted? Am I missing something?




    To be precise, he said no one has made a product that everyone wants yet. If you parse the words very precisely, he is right. But then, 10s of millions of people have paid billions collectively for something they don't want!

  • Reply 12 of 36

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Shameer Mulji View Post


    Remember for $599, you get not only the keyboard but a free copy of Office 2013.  


     



     


    That is really compelling, except Office Outlook is not included in Windows RT.  Most businesses I know only buy the cheap laptops.  Can you get by without a touch screen?  no touch screen for you.

  • Reply 13 of 36

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Shameer Mulji View Post


    Remember for $599, you get not only the keyboard but a free copy of Office 2013.  For those that need and rely on Office (think college students) and want a device of this type, that's a big selling feature.  And the apps for the Windows Marketplace are coming. There's already 10,000 at launch. Not a bad start.


     


    Surface Pro will be appeal a lot to Enterprises.  It runs Office (which owns the business space), is backward compatible with LOB Win32 apps, and has excellent integration with MS' servers - all big pluses when trying to sell to business customers. Yes, I realize the iPad has had strong momentum in businesses, and for Apple's sake hopefully they can continue that, but how long can they keep that going?





    Assuming you're right - that Office RT will make Surface appealing, does this mean µSoft will not release Office for the iPad to maintain that advantage? Or will they release it at a later order in order to maximize revenue and hedge their platform bets?

  • Reply 14 of 36

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rot'nApple View Post


    Someone please help me pick my jaw off the floor!  WOW!! image


    /


    /





    It's funny that every time someone loses their jaw, they need help picking it up. Your hands are still fine, no?

  • Reply 15 of 36


    So now that an analyst is forecasting something favorable to Apple, no one is mocking his baseless prediction? ;)


     


    Credibility is proportional whether a prediction will boost or lower $AAPL? ;-)

  • Reply 16 of 36

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Shameer Mulji View Post


    Remember for $599, you get not only the keyboard but a free copy of Office 2013.  For those that need and rely on Office (think college students) and want a device of this type, that's a big selling feature.  And the apps for the Windows Marketplace are coming. There's already 10,000 at launch. Not a bad start.


     


    Surface Pro will be appeal a lot to Enterprises.  It runs Office (which owns the business space), is backward compatible with LOB Win32 apps, and has excellent integration with MS' servers - all big pluses when trying to sell to business customers. Yes, I realize the iPad has had strong momentum in businesses, and for Apple's sake hopefully they can continue that, but how long can they keep that going?



     


    I wouldn't suggest anyone go to University with an underpowered ARM based Surface. Get a real x86 laptop/convertible. 


     


    Surface Pro, is less unappealing for enterprise than Surface RT.  That doesn't mean it is better than a laptop or more conventional convertible like the Lenovo Yoga 13.  A kickstand with one set angle and a non-supportive keyboard are inferior to the real deal on the Lenovo that can be set at any angle, and has a huge supportive base for the screen so you can type anywhere, including on your lap.


     


    Both Surface offerings are novelty acts, that have significant usability issues. Even if you are a Windows Fan, you will get better designs elsewhere.

  • Reply 17 of 36
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,383member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    Stock to go down to $300 a share.



    I highly doubt that.  The stock has gone up from a year ago from about $404 and it is now trading at $604, roughly speaking. So, from a year to year.  If Apple went up the same percentage, then Apple stock SHOULD be valued at around $900 a share, if the stock follows last year's growth rate.


     


    Apple stock has just seen some surges which were partly over hyped and then some took some profit out.  Some investors are long term players and some are short term.  The short term players is what screws up stock values.  Some of the short term players get either overzealous or too paranoid.

  • Reply 18 of 36

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Snowdog65 View Post


     


    I wouldn't suggest anyone go to University with an underpowered ARM based Surface. Get a real x86 laptop/convertible. 


     


    Surface Pro, is less unappealing for enterprise than Surface RT.  That doesn't mean it is better than a laptop or more conventional convertible like the Lenovo Yoga 13.  A kickstand with one set angle and a non-supportive keyboard are inferior to the real deal on the Lenovo that can be set at any angle, and has a huge supportive base for the screen so you can type anywhere, including on your lap.


     


    Both Surface offerings are novelty acts, that have significant usability issues. Even if you are a Windows Fan, you will get better designs elsewhere.



     


    What a detailed answer! Glad someone had a chance to test it thoroughly. You must have had both Surfaces for a few months to give such definitive advice?

  • Reply 19 of 36

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by winstein2010 View Post


     


    That is really compelling, except Office Outlook is not included in Windows RT.  Most businesses I know only buy the cheap laptops.  Can you get by without a touch screen?  no touch screen for you.



    You're correct in stating that Outlook is not available on Windows RT, only Windows 8 (full).  That's why I stated businesses would be more interested in the Pro version because it offers features more catered towards businesses, Active Director integration being another.

  • Reply 20 of 36

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Harbinger View Post




    Assuming you're right - that Office RT will make Surface appealing, does this mean µSoft will not release Office for the iPad to maintain that advantage? Or will they release it at a later order in order to maximize revenue and hedge their platform bets?



    I don't know the answer to that but there according to rumors, MS will reveal Office for iOS and Android around April / May of 2013 but not as stand alone apps - only available when you subscribe to Office 365 subscription. But again, that's just rumor.

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