iPad mini carving new demand from the hide of PC sales more than existing iPads

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
More than half of iPad mini buyers are new to iPad, and more bought it to replace a PC than an existing iPad says a new study that indicates Apple's latest iPad is still creating new demand rather that replacing the company's existing sales.

While many pundits have predicted that a substantial portion (20-50 percent) of Apple's iPad mini sales would take a bite out of the company's existing, full sized iPad sales, a report by Wall Street Journal blogger John Paczkowski indicates evidence that supports Apple's claim that new sales are occurring largely at the expense of conventional Windows PCs.

Paczkowski cited a survey by Cowen and Co. analyst Matthew Hoffman, which indicated that 52 percent of those who said they plan to buy an iPad mini have never owned a tablet before.

iPad mini sales


Just 16.6 percent of that same group said they'd be replacing another device with the iPad mini, and among those, while 29 percent said it would replace an iPad, 42 percent said it would replace a Windows PC. Another 13 percent said it would replace a Kindle Fire.

iPad mini sales


"The iPad mini creates more demand than it cannibalizes," Hoffman stated, adding, "we see it successfully positioned as likely to penetrate new entry-tier segments."

He also noted, "Mini will no doubt take some iPad 4 sales, but its low price also looks like an important tool to capture new consumers? attention."

Early last week, Apple announced initial weekend sales of 3 million new iPads, without breaking out sales details between the full sized iPad 4 and the iPad mini.

"Customers around the world love the new iPad mini and fourth generation iPad," Apple's chief executive Tim Cook said. "We set a new launch weekend record and practically sold out of iPad minis. We're working hard to build more quickly to meet the incredible demand."

Apple has only just now started shipping cellular versions of the new iPads, which in addition to working on mobile 3G and LTE networks, also supply GPS features even without a data contract in place.

The runaway success of Apple's iPad has had a brutal impact on Windows PC makers globally, but hasn't seemed to hurt Apple's Mac sales, which continue to outpace the growth of generic PCs. Sales of iPads have eclipsed the PC sales of the top manufacturers, and forced Microsoft to both shift Windows 8 toward a tablet orientation and port Windows to the more efficient ARM architecture in a bid to compete with Apple in a market where the software giant hasn't done well in the past.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 49
    Even if sales are for replacements to iPads, those still seem like valuable sales (for example, we sold our original iPad to help finance the Mini). Perhaps troubling if the sales are in lieu of full-size iPads but, even then, better to sell that buyer an Apple product than to let the buyer go somewhere else. Small note: the 83% "not replacing" figure shows how new this market is and how much room it has before it is close to saturated.
  • Reply 2 of 49
    What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...
  • Reply 3 of 49
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    If accurate this isn't a good sign for Windows or Win OEMs.
  • Reply 4 of 49

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by stynkfysh View Post



    What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...


     


    That's very interesting!  What city is your Craigslist in?  I just looked at Craigslist here in L.A. and the sellers are all asking more for their iPad Mini than the standard Apple price.  I'd like to buy one from the town you're in!

  • Reply 5 of 49
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 4,752member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by stynkfysh View Post



    What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...




    I looked at those ads (for San Francisco) for a bit to check out your theory.  Looks to me like the ones selling them hoarded them with the hopes of making a profit off the backs of "desperate" buyers.  I'm crying a river for them that gambled, and lost.



    Just because it's on Craigslist, I could care less if the mini's are in sealed, unopened boxes.  They better literally give them away at a steep discount if I am to even consider meeting them (and the safety issue) as opposed to buying it at a legitimate retailer.



    I have no sympathy for them.  Sounds like you scored a decent deal given a 64GB mini runs $529, tack on tax after that.  Good for you!



    Edit:  I looked even more closely at the Craigslist ads in SF.  There are the few that are trying to gouge folks that want one now.  The others that I see seem to want to unload them for the same price as Apple's price + tax.



    I'm beginning to wonder the legitimacy of the above poster.  Either he got a seriously good deal among the masses, or the rest of his post was simply trying to give the impression that no one is buying minis which is flat-out wrong.

  • Reply 6 of 49

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by delreyjones View Post


     


    That's very interesting!  What city is your Craigslist in?  I just looked at Craigslist here in L.A. and the sellers are all asking more for their iPad Mini than the standard Apple price.  I'd like to buy one from the town you're in!



     


    Better wear your oven mitts where handling those "bargains." 

  • Reply 7 of 49
    chabigchabig Posts: 627member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by stynkfysh View Post



    What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...


    Sorry. Have to call BS on this one.

  • Reply 8 of 49
    I just checked iPad Mini prices on Craigslist here in Palm Beach County, Florida. One person offered a "one gig" iPad Mini for $288. Since there is no such model in existance, I suggest it's likely to be a fake Chinese knockoff. All the rest were above Apple Store prices.

    Maybe this is unique to SF, where people expected more desperate buyers?

    D
  • Reply 9 of 49

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by stynkfysh View Post



    What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...


     


    Better make sure it is a real iPad Mini.  I know people selling empty boxes, a wood "tablet" etc. on CraigsList.


     


    I would rather buy from an eBay seller with good reviews.

  • Reply 10 of 49
    You think the mini is crazy hot now just wait until it goes retina display and A 6 chip endowed next year.
    I got my 32gig Mimi wifi only last week and I love it!!!!!
  • Reply 11 of 49
    rayzrayz Posts: 814member
    stynkfysh wrote: »
    What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...

    Sounds like folk bought in bulk and were surprised to find that Apple produced enough to satisfy the first week's demand.

    Left with a garage full of IPads, they had to drop the price or return them.
  • Reply 12 of 49
    elrothelroth Posts: 1,201member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by stynkfysh View Post



    What is interesting to me is that iPad mini's are on Craigslist for well under Apple's sale price already, and there are a ton of them. This usually takes a while with Apple stuff, but not the iPad Mini. An acquaintance of mine, who buys and sells tech stuff at launch, bought a boat load of Mini's at launch and has since returned them to the Apple store. Apparently he couldn't sell them for what he bought them for. So, my question is, given that the findings of this survey are accurate, how many iPad Mini's are we actually talking about? - how many people are actually buying these things? I bought a 64GB iPad Mini off Craigslist for $450 today...


    Not where I am - 16GB for $425, 64GB for $540. It seems like you're the only one in the world who can get that price - congratulations on whatever it is you really bought.

  • Reply 13 of 49
    nagrommenagromme Posts: 2,834member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by chabig View Post


    Sorry. Have to call BS on this one.



    Agreed. Sounds like a scam (or simple trolling, but probably a scam). This is the start of holiday shopping season. New Apple gear, acclaimed by the lucky few to get their hands on it, does not need a discount to sell. It’s not like storing the things is expensive!

  • Reply 14 of 49

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post



    If accurate this isn't a good sign for Windows or Win OEMs.


     


    I was thinking that same thing... If people are seeing the iPad mini as being more desirable than the dusty dinosaur they have, then Microsoft has lost the battle for the consumer's mind already; the Surface RT is too beta and too late. It will only get worse as the holiday season plays itself out. 


     


    On the other side of this story; that people are buying the iPad Mini to upgrade from the Kindle Fire is saying a lot about the sweet spot where the iPad Mini is sitting. It's gonna be a very merry Christmas!


     


    Remember boys and girls, if you get a slab of black plastic in your stocking, You've been a very bad child!

  • Reply 15 of 49
    gazoobeegazoobee Posts: 3,754member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by delreyjones View Post


     


    That's very interesting!  What city is your Craigslist in?  I just looked at Craigslist here in L.A. and the sellers are all asking more for their iPad Mini than the standard Apple price.  I'd like to buy one from the town you're in!



     


    Same here.  I think this person is just mistaken.  

  • Reply 16 of 49
    While an ipad could be used to replace much of my work on my MBP, I do not see how a mini would "replace" my MBP or a PC completely. Probably for small emails, facebook, Skype, reading, small note taking and some casual web browsing it will be great for most people. However, composing a work project, heavy photo editing, video editing, website creation and the like I could never get rid of my MBP. Most people dumping their PC won't be people who get their CPU above 10% of usage. That 52% that never owned a tablet have yet to understand what the limitations will be. I'll hold out for the 128GB ipad in a few years :)
  • Reply 17 of 49


    Studies/Surveys can be fickle...


     


    As a technology user... you really CAN'T live without a notebook/desktop PC/Mac... a tablet just doesn't do enough computing.


    Yes apps and mobile sites help, but there are times when we all put down the tablet, and grab the notebook... first thing that comes to mind... home finances, heavy word processing, work-related office docs...


     


    And on the flip side... those surveyed want to use it to replace their smart phone? What are they going to make phone calls with?


     


    To offer SOME perspective...


    Goldman Sachs Survey May 2012 - 62% who own at least 1 Apple device will stay Apple


     


    BUT... if a comparable device to the Apple one was at least 10%-15% less, 13% would adopt a non-Apple device. 


    If the device was 21% - 30% less, 23% would adopt a non-Apple device.


     


    And the top of the Tablet list for Christmas according to Techbargains.com... 33% Nexus 7, 30% iPad, 24% iPad Mini.



     


     




     


     


  • Reply 18 of 49
    gazoobeegazoobee Posts: 3,754member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by LuxoM3 View Post


    ...  And the top of the Tablet list for Christmas according to Techbargains.com... 33% Nexus 7, 30% iPad, 24% iPad Mini.



     


     




     


     




     


    There's your survey bias right there.  Techbargains is not going to be representative of buyers, only of cheap buyers.  

  • Reply 19 of 49
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,616member
    I am waiting for the report that claims sales of tweed jackets, blazers and the likes have sky rocketed since the introduction of the iPad mini.
  • Reply 20 of 49
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,453member
    Interesting that 8% said they would replace a smartphone. How, VOIP? Either way that could theoretically cut into iPod sales as well.

    Also interesting that 4% see this as a replacement for an iPod Touch.

    So that's about a million and 500k units respectively the mini is going to canibialize. A drop in the bucket even if all of those were the iPhone, but since the iPod Touch sells in much smaller numbers, and dropping year over year every quarter, that represents about 10% of its sales.
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