iPad And Android Will Overtake Xbox360 and PS3 in 2014
The Xbox360 and PS3 has just about 1 year before it will be clearly overtaken sometime in 2014.
I will present my arguments shortly. I need to have a shower first before my long treatise below.
OK. Let's begin.
I first encountered the Unity Engine several years back. It was around the peak of Flash and Flash gaming. It was supposed to bring 3D gaming to Flash.
I'm not sure how successful that was because in the past several years we've seen what has happened to Flash.
Actually, I am incorrect in a way because I am not sure whether there was really Unity for Flash as there is now or whether it was more about the Unity plug-in.
Anyway...
In October I went to EB Expo Australia in Sydney where I saw one of the most amazing indie games: Orbitor by Evil Aliens.
I will present my arguments shortly. I need to have a shower first before my long treatise below.
OK. Let's begin.
I first encountered the Unity Engine several years back. It was around the peak of Flash and Flash gaming. It was supposed to bring 3D gaming to Flash.
I'm not sure how successful that was because in the past several years we've seen what has happened to Flash.
Actually, I am incorrect in a way because I am not sure whether there was really Unity for Flash as there is now or whether it was more about the Unity plug-in.
Anyway...
In October I went to EB Expo Australia in Sydney where I saw one of the most amazing indie games: Orbitor by Evil Aliens.
Comments
It's only the web demo, running in a browser. The fuller PC version is much more impressive.
[IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/16730/width/350/height/700[/IMG]
[IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/16731/width/350/height/700[/IMG]
So it really got me thinking. This kind of colour, lighting, gamma... Is Unity Engine really that great?
Answer: Yes. Let's look at iPad next. (Orbitor is not available on iOS yet, nor I think at the time of this article released for PC).
[IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/16732/width/500/height/1000[/IMG]
Now, the above image doesn't seem to do the game justice because you're actually playing it at a massive well-beyond-1080p resolution. Here's a direct screen capture, resized and compressed so it won't take up too much space. Click on it for a larger image:
[IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/16733/width/500/height/1000[/IMG]
The above is on an iPad 3, at "High" settings.
Here's what it looks like on "Ultra High" settings. It's too much for the iPad 3 but should be fine for an iPad 4 (I haven't tested on 4 yet).
[IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/16734/width/500/height/1000[/IMG]
There are distinct lighting improvements and other enhancements. Lucky the iPad 4 user.
Let's look at an interesting game: CSR Racing. This is mainly a drag racing game, but the car viewer is pretty impressive. Again, iPad 3, and I have no doubt it doesn't quite push the iPad 4 to its limits.
[IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/16735/width/500/height/1000[/IMG]
How does this compare to NFS: Most Wanted (2012) on Xbox360?
Here's what I found: (screenshot from http://operationsports.com used here under fair use laws. This seems to be a generic NFS: Most Wanted (2012) screenshot floating around the web).
Edit: Not sure if screenshot is PC, Xbox360 or PS3, but you get the idea.
[IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/16737/width/500/height/1000[/IMG]
This is of course where the debate gets heated. You can take a PC from 2005-2009 and it may not produce the modern 2012 look of Xbox360 games. But looking closely at Xbox360, we see it has generally a maximum resolution of 1280x720 and there are a very, very large variety of techniques to give things that "modern, shiny, console-y look". Assassins' Creed 3 is a great Xbox360 title but you can definitely start to notice where graphics, polygons, textures, etc. get "chopped" to fit in the performance of an Xbox360.
I'm not saying this doesn't happen on iPad 3/4. Scene depth, level depth, voice and animation production are of course behind the Xbox360 too.
But for how long?
Just like DX8 gave way to much better looking (and feeling) DX9, 10 and 11, we see OpenGL ES 2.0 really taken up a notch by the Unity Engine. That somewhat dull, Open GL "amateur" look is giving way to something unique - colourful, intense, shiny, etc. In time I'm sure on iPad they'll be able to make interesting, more "artsy" looks, such as Borderlands 1/2.
[IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/16738/width/500/height/1000[/IMG]
There are many challenges. Such as the iPad not being a dedicated gaming device, deeper levels, AI, textures, polygons, the whole shebang.
But as the momentum builds and Unity and game developers push the iPad 4, and 5 when it comes out, to even greater heights, we could see some very interesting things happening in 2014.
You also have to ask regarding the development budget. Are the latest shiny 3D games for iPad scaled down because of performance limitations ~OR~ is it because of game development budgets and timelines? A bit of both, I'm sure.
It definitely seems like in 2015 (remember, Android is making similar gains to) we could really see Android and iOS eclipse the Xbox360. Particularly when "Triple A" studios spend say at least 1 year on an iPad 5-targeted game.
By which there is supposed to be a next gen Xbox720.
So I hope for Microsoft's sake.
Gaming is one of the least talked-about aspects of the boom in smartphones and tablets. Maybe the traditional Big Three want it that way, and who would blame them.
Nintendo seems to be the Apple of that industry, so I hope they come through the shift in a strong position. They have so much good IP that it would be a terrible shame to see it sold off to others to completely mangle.
Microsoft will probably just position the Xbox as more of Bill Gates' dream, you know? That whole "home theater thingy" idea. It'll still play games. It'll have to, what with the complete and utter failure of their own smartphone and tablet platforms to pick up what their console will lose.
Sony can rot in a pit for all I care. Too greedy, too self-assured, too evil, and they have been since they first got into the console game. Their roadmap doesn't have a new console until 2017.
Sony has stated they are sticking to a 10 year minimum lifecycle for the PS3:
"Eurogamer: How long before the PS3 no longer seems future-proof?
Andrew House: I've always said we looked at PS3 as a ten years-plus lifecycle. The question mark for me is how big that plus is."
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-06-09-sonys-andrew-house-interview
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-10/sony-s-hirai-says-playstation-3-is-only-halfway-through-10-year-life-cycle.html
People are interpreting that to mean no PS4 before 2016 but it could mean they just intend to keep selling the PS3 for that long like they have with the PS2. It makes sense really when you think a single studio might only publish 3 titles in that timeframe.
Carmack thinks 2013 for both and 10x power increase:
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-06-16-next-xbox-ps4-will-be-10x-as-powerful
There was a leaked document about the next XBox that Microsoft got taken down:
http://www.theverge.com/2012/6/16/3090944/microsoft-xbox-720-kinect-2-kinect-glasses-doc-leak-rumor
It says 6x faster than the 360.
http://www.theverge.com/2012/8/9/3229894/new-xbox-next-18-months-microsoft-hint/in/2495929
OpenGL ES 3 looks very good - as you say, it's really the lighting and shading that shows the difference:
http://www.glbenchmark.com/benchmarks.jsp?benchmark=glb30
This could be in the next iOS devices, which I guess will arrive near the end of next year. If Apple is able to double performance consistently year on year, they will be comparable to even the next-gen consoles in 3-4 years from now, which is well within their lifespan. Plus, games on iOS can run at 720p 30FPS so they don't have to match the raw performance to get the same quality.
The sticking point will always be AAA games. I look at the gaming charts for iOS and see Angry Birds, Tetris, Scrabble, Where's My Water, Temple Run etc time and time again. The number of immersive (doesn't mean addictive) franchises has increased a lot but we're not quite at the point of simultaneous, same version releases for big titles. The price expectation will be a factor - not as much as it looks at first glance but still a factor.
I'd at least like to see games like Arkham Asylum ported over in full, even Half-Life 2 / Portal / Team Fortress / Left 4 Dead. They can get round the size and price issue by splitting the games into parts.
Touch controls aren't as good to use but they work well enough to give you an ejoyable gaming experience.
While next-gen consoles should be capable of running the following:
[VIDEO]
that's impressive mainly because it's a directed scene. A gamer isn't going to experience that camera work and character movement. They just need to make more immersive games and games don't need to be large in size to be immersive. You could be more immersed in GTA: Vice City (1.5GB) than Max Payne 3 (~30GB) for example. Vice City is reportedly coming to iOS and Android soon.
The first thing the mobile platforms will affect is the handlheld gaming devices, which sell in really small amounts now:
http://www.joystiq.com/2012/08/20/vita-sales-august-2012/
Once the franchises jump from the DS and Vita to iOS/Android, it should just take a short time before we get simultaneous releases that scale across the platforms. I don't know why Sony doesn't just drop the Vita and push Playstation branded titles to iOS. They make a loss on the hardware so it would actually save them money. Apple said they don't want to make a console so it can be a good partnership against Microsoft's setup.
Regardless of how fast the new/next ipad is, there will always be a problem of controlling the action. Many of the games available for dedicated consoles require two hands. How are you supposed to replicate that on a tablet (and hold it at the same time)?
I guess that it would be possible to have controllers for tablets but then who wants to play on a tiny screen. Sure you could connect the tablet to a tv but then why not just buy a dedicated console in the first place.?
Originally Posted by hungover
Regardless of how fast the new/next ipad is, there will always be a problem of controlling the action. Many of the games available for dedicated consoles require two hands. How are you supposed to replicate that on a tablet (and hold it at the same time)?
At most, any console game requires four fingers. Since the iPad can handle 11…
For years Open GL always had that "flat, low-res-texture" look. Now that investment is really going to go into the game engines like Unreal, Unity, etc. for Open GL ES (let alone Open GL full)... Hmm... very interesting times.
With controllers, all the main buttons (about 9 separate inputs) are controlled by two thumbs, which can be replicated using the touch screen. The main distinction between touch screens and controllers is the shoulder buttons. That's a big difference though because it allows you to have 6 simultaneous inputs instead of 2. This can be replicated using touch on the back of the device though or a touch band round the device. They can make these bands/bumpers 3rd party and plug into the ports and even offer more than two side/rear inputs.
Dedicated consoles make it harder to play certain other games. An RTS game like StarCraft wouldn't be good to play with a controller. Plus, the idea would be that the tablet is the dedicated console. It can be docked when playing games that are better suited for a standard controller and undocked for games that need touch input or gaming on the move.
Here's a real-time demo running on a Playstation 3:
[VIDEO]
With just that amount of power, there's enough creative freedom to make games more than standard shooters and in many cases having more than a standard controller will be needed for the experience. Contextual input offers so much more than mapping fixed controls to every scenario, especially when we get tactile feedback.
Think of an on-rails game in the above demo where you have to help Kara escape. You have to fight off the robot, guide the direction she moves. You could get prompts like 'Press A to perform some scripted badass move' like you do in Call of Duty but it's not much fun. That's why Kinect is great but if they can get a Kinect just for your fingers so you don't have to keep jumping around, that would offer a lot of value. That's what LEAP Motion does. Take that along with tactile input and add on emotional gaming and we can finally get out of the 'hey, here's a room full of enemies, just kill all of them in a wild ramage and we'll show you a cutscene'.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tallest Skil
At most, any console game requires four fingers. Since the iPad can handle 11…
So the ipad is geared at the off spring of 6 fingered banjo play eff wits and normal 5 fingered people?
Why11? is this is in homage to Spinal Tap?
On a more serious note, I probably phrased my point badly, i was thinking along the lines of the PS3 controller with its thumb operated twin "joysticks", trying to replicate that kind of physical experience whilst holding the ipad strikes me as being very cumbersome. I also think that it would be far less "immersive", when using a controller I am looking at the screen, I get to enjoy the whole of the real estate. In the same way that a driver isn't looking at the stearing wheel whilst driving. Games on a tablet are slightly obsured by your fingers.
Originally Posted by hungover
Why11? is this is in homage to Spinal Tap?
I dunno, I just remember an old (proof of concept) app that had 11 different interactions depending on the number of fingers you had on the screen. It could actually be more than 11; I don't know the hard limit of the panels they use.
…i was thinking along the lines of the PS3 controller with its thumb operated twin "joysticks", trying to replicate that kind of physical experience whilst holding the iPad strikes me as being very cumbersome.
Oh? Download Epic Citadel, if it's still available. It's an early proof of concept of the Unity (is that it?) engine, showing what the iPad was capable of producing. Its method of movement is exactly that—dual joysticks. Works great, in my mind.
You have a point. But Shadowgun: Deadzone is surprisingly okay for a multiplayer shooter. People and games will adapt. Just like when Xbox controllers came out PC elitists like myself thought how in the world could you play a fast game without a keyboard and mouse.
Also, all that is needed is a physical adapter standard for iOS and Android, alongside a really seamless way to connect it to the TV ie. a "Dock" of some sort.
Once you have a "Dock" and wireless "Controller" for iOS and Android, as an open standard, in 2015... well, see above.
In Shadowgun: Deadzone what's cool is that iOS and Android users can all play together.
Epic Citadel was Unreal Engine for iOS, used in Infinity Blade. They also ported Unreal Tournament 3, but only used as demos (see YouTube videos of the dude explaining the port test).
Unity and Unreal is looking really good for iOS, but Unity has an edge in that its cost and flexibility for mobile/tablet is very attractive.