Apple's iPad projected to control 50% of tablet shipments through 2016

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Apple's total share of the growing worldwide tablet market is forecast to shrink slightly but maintain iPad dominance through the year 2016 in the face of growing competition from Android and Windows.

IDC


IDC believes a total of 122.3 million tablets will be shipped in this year, with 53.8 percent of those being iPad models from Apple. If accurate, that number would be slightly lower than the 56.3 percent of shipments Apple accounted for in 2011.

Tablets running Google's Android operating system are expected to capitalize and grow from 39.8 percent in 2011 to 42.7 percent of shipments in the full year of 2012.

Despite the recent launches of Windows 8 and Microsoft Surface, total Windows-based tablets are expected to account for just 2.9 percent of tablet shipments in 2012. IDC believes Microsoft's Windows platform will grow to 10.2 percent by 2016.

Microsoft's projected gains in market share will come at a cost to both Apple's iOS and Google's Android, as IDC believes they will both see their total share slip through 2016. IDC's forecast calls for Apple's iPad to account for 49.7 percent of tablets shipped in 2016, while Android will represent 39.7 percent of tablets.

In all, IDC expects total 2012 tablets shipments will hit 122.3 million, while next year the market will grow to 172.4 million. By 2016, worldwide tablet shipments are predicted to reach 282.7 million units.

"Tablets continue to captivate consumers, and as the market shifts toward smaller, more mobile screen sizes and lower prices points, we expect demand to accelerate in the fourth quarter and beyond," said Tom Mainelli, research director, Tablets at IDC. "Android tablets are gaining traction in the market thanks to solid products from Google, Amazon, Samsung, and others. And Apple's November iPad mini launch, along with its surprise refresh of the full-sized iPad, positions the company well for a strong holiday season."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 50
    Are there any DATA to justify Windows growing its share?
    Methinks not.
  • Reply 2 of 50
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    So this is why AAPL stock is down over 4% today?
  • Reply 3 of 50
    jd_in_sbjd_in_sb Posts: 1,483member
    What garbage. Android market share has never been anywhere near 40%. Single digits at best.
  • Reply 4 of 50
    mjtomlinmjtomlin Posts: 1,811member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post



    What garbage. Android market share has never been anywhere near 40%. Single digits at best.


     


    They're talking about shipments, not necessarily sales. As more and more tablets enter the market there is no place for anyone else to go but down.


     


    Apple's numbers are driven by demand, everyone else so far is nothing more than desire - They hope to sell what they're shipping.

  • Reply 5 of 50


    Who cares? If shipments mean anything, why not just cut aluminum blocks into trillions of pieces and ship those? There's your volume right there.


     


    Oh, wait, no one would buy just a little piece of aluminum. No one would develop for just a little piece of aluminum. No one would be satisfied with a little piece of aluminum.

  • Reply 6 of 50


    The issue with projections like this is that they're forecasting that windows tablets will see growth, making an assumption that just because it's windows, it will drive growth.  This kind of guessing reminds me more of how things played out with the iPod.  Big ol' MS comes to market with the iPod/iPhone/iPad killer and a lot of great prognosticators forecast Apple to lose share.  We haven't seen that yet, so shouldn't ideas like this be called on the carpet?


     


    What they are not taking into consideration is that Apple will most likely update and change both the iPad as we know it today and iOS as well by 2016 - maybe several times over.  But why give Apple any credit - since they haven't exactly been doing anything right over the past 5+ years...at least compared to Microsoft.

  • Reply 7 of 50
    saareksaarek Posts: 1,105member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jd_in_sb View Post



    What garbage. Android market share has never been anywhere near 40%. Single digits at best.


    It's the sold vs shipped thing again. Personally I only think tablets that are sold should be classed in these figures, but most analyst tend to disagree.

  • Reply 8 of 50
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    davebarnes wrote: »
    Are there any DATA to justify Windows growing its share?
    Methinks not.

    Remember when Win Phone was predicted to overtake iOS by now? Seems unlikely from what I've seen with the Surqcw and Win8.
  • Reply 9 of 50
    adamcadamc Posts: 566member
    jmgregory1 wrote: »
    The issue with projections like this is that they're forecasting that windows tablets will see growth, making an assumption that just because it's windows, it will drive growth.  This kind of guessing reminds me more of how things played out with the iPod.  Big ol' MS comes to market with the iPod/iPhone/iPad killer and a lot of great prognosticators forecast Apple to lose share.  We haven't seen that yet, so shouldn't ideas like this be called on the carpet?

    What they are not taking into consideration is that Apple will most likely update and change both the iPad as we know it today and iOS as well by 2016 - maybe several times over.  But why give Apple any credit - since they haven't exactly been doing anything right over the past 5+ years...at least compared to Microsoft.

    What did MS do right over the past ten years?

    Please enlighten me at least Apple introduced the disruptive IPhone and IPad.
  • Reply 10 of 50


    Check your sarcasm monitor, because I don't think you got was I was suggesting.  I don't believe MS has done anything impressive in the past 10 years, but for some reason both the tech pundits and financial analysts seem to give them more credit than Apple gets.  It makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.  I think a lot of it has to do with the shift that's occurring in the tech industry and how a lot of people are still so entrenched in legacy systems and technology, they can't see beyond what they know or knew.


     


    Just look at all the MS fans talking about ways they can kill Metro so they can use Windows 8 as if it were 7.  That kind of resistance to change and MS's willingness to allow people to keep living in the past is going to eventually catch up with them (I think it already has).

  • Reply 11 of 50
    jd_in_sbjd_in_sb Posts: 1,483member
    saarek wrote: »
    It's the sold vs shipped thing again. Personally I only think tablets that are sold should be classed in these figures, but most analyst tend to disagree.

    Where are all these millions of shipped-yet-never-sold Android tablets actually ending up? Perhaps they are being grinded up as raw materials for the foundation of Apple's new spaceship campus.
  • Reply 12 of 50
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post



    So this is why AAPL stock is down over 4% today?


    That reportedly has to do with increased margin requirements in reaction to Octobers "rogue" trader amongst other concerns.

  • Reply 13 of 50
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,383member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post



    So this is why AAPL stock is down over 4% today?


    First off there has been a lot of upper management exec at Apple that have been selling of options, which most of them get a lot more options in a few years. but people get paranoid when they see a lot of sell off from upper management.  Secondly, i think the tax laws change next year, so maybe people are dumping shares now to avoid future taxes if they held on to the stock.  I think once Apple stock goes down to a P/E of less than 12, it will be a buying opportunity.  Just speculation on my part.

  • Reply 14 of 50


    So, they dump just APPL stocks and not others? But, you're right IT IS YOUR SPECULATION.


     


    Quote:

    Originally Posted by drblank View Post


    Secondly, i think the tax laws change next year, so maybe people are dumping shares now to avoid future taxes if they held on to the stock.  I think once Apple stock goes down to a P/E of less than 12, it will be a buying opportunity.  Just speculation on my part.


  • Reply 15 of 50


    Originally Posted by fireside View Post

    So, they dump just APPL stocks and not others? But, you're right IT IS YOUR SPECULATION.


     


    So… your speculation would be that Apple Is Doomed™, since you've said nothing else.

  • Reply 16 of 50
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    adamc wrote: »
    What did MS do right over the past ten years?
    Please enlighten me at least Apple introduced the disruptive IPhone and IPad.

    If you mean market success their server and productivity suites are highly profitable. If you mean something more subjective I'd say they've done a great job with Win Phone in terms of a useful UI that isn't stealing from Apple. They've also made leaps and bounds with IE and the NT kernel in ways I didn't this was possible at MS.

    They certainly don't have any mindshare with consumers but they are still a highly profitable and powerful company that will not be closing it's doors anytime soon.
  • Reply 17 of 50
    sockrolidsockrolid Posts: 2,788member


    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post



    Apple's total share of the growing worldwide tablet market is forecast to shrink slightly but maintain iPad dominance through the year 2016 in the face of growing competition from Android and Windows.


     


    And what percentage of the profits in the "tablet" market will Apple be making through the year 2016?


    I expect total Apple dominance, profit-wise.


     




    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post



    "Android tablets are gaining traction in the market thanks to solid products from Google, Amazon, Samsung, and others. ..."


     



     


    By 2016 there will be two main forks of Android: the Amazon fork and the Samsung fork.  Samsung will fork Android so it can optimize


    its hardware and software for each other.  The better to crush whatever Android hardware competitors Samsung might still have in 2016.


     


    Android developers will code to the Samsung fork first because of its market share.  Google's generic "vanilla" Android releases will


    be irrelevant.  Only the niche-market Nexus phones and pads will run it.  Along with the odd Motorola phone and pad, unless Google


    dumps Motorola between now and 2016.

  • Reply 18 of 50
    Wake me up when your kid, your wife, or anyone you know tells you that they want a Surface.
  • Reply 19 of 50
    aaarrrggghaaarrrgggh Posts: 1,570member
    You can justify Windows growth on the basis of desktop cannibalization which expands the overall market. The flaw in the logic is more that they only see a 23% long-term annual growth rate for tablet sales (15% after 2013). For MS to actually sell 28MM tablets, the market is going to need to be much larger-- likely closer to 500MM units or more, which would put them closer to a 5% share. The "good" news for MS is that they are quite likely to see the 28MM sales... unfortunately at a much larger cost in desktops.
  • Reply 20 of 50


    MS does indeed own the enterprise market, but even they understand that change is happening.  The shift with businesses allowing their employees to use their own devices is something I'm sure MS never thought would happen - not when said devices have been iPhones, iPads and MacBook's.  As much as IT professionals loathe this change as much as MS does, the savings companies realize when this occurs can be substantial and something you have to expect will continue, and in all likelihood accelerate.  The user experience Apple has fostered should be embarrassing to MS when you look at the direction they're going now.  I understand that they (MS) have to support the sub-set of businesses created to fix MS's own issues, but the reality is people, both consumers and business employees, want things to be simple to use and to work without tweaking settings or needing an IT person to make things right.


     


    I'm sure there is a group of people out there that actually like MS and their OS and programs, but I just don't see a majority of windows users saying they wish they could have the same windows experience on their phones and tablets - because that would mean they'd get to experience all the frustrations of working with MS that they commonly get while at work.


     


    The only way I see them getting any meaningful market share is if they can convince enough IT heads and corporations to force Surface tablets down the throats of their employees.  Otherwise common sense tells me they're going to have to work hard just to maintain niche status of the Surface, let alone see any kind of broad implementation.

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