Apple predicted to gain additional U.S. smartphone share over Samsung in 2013

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Reiterating the lack of excitement surrounding Samsung's "Broadway-style" launch of the Galaxy S 4, Yankee Group research has stated Apple is likely to gain ownership share in U.S. smartphones this year, "rather than the other way around."

Yankee Group Carl Howe Samsung Apple


"While Samsung updated the internals and the software, the S IV is just another iteration on the Galaxy design to be slightly bigger, faster and with a few new apps," noted the firm's VP of Research Carl Howe.

"We fully expect the Galaxy S IV to be an excellent flagship phone for Samsung, but Yankee Group doesn?t see the S IV allowing Samsung to gain ground against Apple in the crucial U.S. market."

Howe's firm plotted various manufacturers' smartphone ownership share against consumers' reported intent to buy in future purchases, creating a graph (above) that depicts Apple leading in both categories, and the only smartphone manufacturer within "gaining share" territory.

Based on data collected in the Yankee Group?s March 2013 US Consumer Survey, "only about 15 percent of consumers intend to buy a Samsung phone within the next six months, while 40 percent intend to buy Apple iPhones within that period," the firm reported.

"That?s actually a slight decline from the December quarter. Further, Samsung isn?t generating the same kind of brand loyalty that Apple owners have; in that same survey, only 61 percent of Samsung owners intend to buy another Samsung as their next smartphone; that contrasts dramatically with 85 percent of Apple iPhone owners intending to buy another iPhone," Howe wrote.

"Unless Samsung works very hard to change consumers? minds in the next six months, we actually see Apple gaining ownership share on Samsung in the U.S. in 2013 rather than the other way around."

Howe has previously noted Apple's overwhelming lead as the most favored brand among tablet buyers, with the iPad having nearly seven times the interest of its nearest competitor, Amazon's Kindle-branded devices.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 40


    I don't see apple gaining on Samsung. Nokia and HTC I see as being possible but not Samsung 

  • Reply 2 of 40
    gtrgtr Posts: 3,231member


    "Apple predicted to gain additional U.S. smartphone share over Samsung in 2013"


    Yeah, thanks for the innovative S4, Samsung!


     


  • Reply 3 of 40
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member


    Samsung spanked itself on Broadway, and I mean that literally and metaphorically (you know which metaphor I am talking about).


     


    Even if the new S4 was capable of blowing away the competition (which it wasn't), the presentation hit all the wrong notes. It was brief where it should have lingered, and it lingered where it should have skipped. Choosing style over substance and adding unmistakably misogynistic overtones just made the whole show one of those "I can't believe they did that" spectacles. If, indeed, Apple outsells Samsung significantly this year and next, we can remember 2013 as the year in which Samsung jumped the shark; on Broadway, no less.

  • Reply 4 of 40
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,980member
    stelligent wrote: »
    Samsung spanked itself on Broadway, and I mean that literally and metaphorically (you know which metaphor I am talking about).

    Even if the new S4 was capable of blowing away the competition (which it wasn't), the presentation hit all the wrong notes. It was brief where it should have lingered, and it lingered where it should have skipped. Choosing style over substance and adding unmistakably misogynistic overtones just made the whole show one of those "I can't believe they did that" spectacles. If, indeed, Apple outsells Samsung significantly this year and next, we can remember 2013 as the year in which Samsung jumped the shark; on Broadway, no less.

    Do you really think that a great many people saw that?
  • Reply 5 of 40
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Like all rumours predicting the future take it with a grain of salt but I can see Apple gaining in both profit share and unit market share in the US smartphone market.
  • Reply 6 of 40
    genovellegenovelle Posts: 936member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post





    Do you really think that a great many people saw that?


    Those that didn't heard about it.  Unless of course they live in a cave.  

  • Reply 7 of 40
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post





    Do you really think that a great many people saw that?


     


    Does it matter? Embarrassing is embarrassing.


     


    Obviously, the audience was not a large number by Apple's standards. But many smartphone "journalists" and bloggers (including Apple bloggers) live-tweeted or even live-blogged the event. The event was reviewed by all the usual suspects and then some. Half a million views on YouTube so far.


     


    So the word got out there. 

  • Reply 8 of 40
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    stelligent wrote: »
    Does it matter? Embarrassing is embarrassing.

    Obviously, the audience was not a large number by Apple's standards. But many smartphone "journalists" and bloggers (including Apple bloggers) live-tweeted or even live-blogged the event. The event was reviewed by all the usual suspects and then some. Half a million views on YouTube so far.

    So the word got out there. 

    I really think the number is low that watched and even lower those that would be affected by it. It was weird (as usual) and just seemed wrong in so many ways but I have already made my mind up about Samsung and I wager that most who would take the time to watch or read up on it also already have a general feeling about Samsung. The average person simply won't know that Samsung even had an event.
  • Reply 9 of 40
    mdriftmeyermdriftmeyer Posts: 7,259member
    This is a buffer/stop gap for analysts when the numbers come in and they can cite this as them being ahead of the curve: Apple is going to expand over all the competition and they've already gotten channel numbers to make this a trend.
  • Reply 10 of 40
    rhyderhyde Posts: 294member
    Of course, most people will complain that the '5S' isn't a game changer, too. At least if the release of the 4S and 3GS is any indication. People will bitch that the thing isn't redesigned (assuming history holds true on the way Apple does things).

    Naturally, the 5S will completely blow away sales records, new iPhones always do, and Apple may very well steal some high-end market share away from Samsung. But I think that people taking glee in Samsung's missteps here are going to find the same stuff happening to Apple when the 5S comes out.

    We shall see...
  • Reply 11 of 40
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    I really think the number is low that watched and even lower those that would be affected by it. It was weird (as usual) and just seemed wrong in so many ways but I have already made my mind up about Samsung and I wager that most who would take the time to watch or read up on it also already have a general feeling about Samsung. The average person simply won't know that Samsung even had an event.


    I agree with you in principle. But ... If I were to look at the Samsung Galaxy line on its own merits (and forget whether and how much they copied Apple), they have done a good job. The Galaxy S is a good phone (have used it, programmed on it, etc.). It does not compare to the iPhone in spit and polish, but it is not a cheap phone. And there are advantages to the larger screen, even if the colors are not as good. More importantly, the Galaxy family offers options (an understatement). And they have marketed the hell out of the line. So really, to me, their sales numbers are not a surprise. There was/is a strong appetite to buying something different than what Apple offers and Samsung managed to make itself the top alternative. So they were poised to grow even more. But their marketing department dumped a turd. While it might not change the minds of those who already felt one way or the other about Samsung, there are many who are still undecided. A show like that will not sway them toward the S4.


     


    I am not shedding a tear for them. I am just surprised a company that has executed so well so far would stumble so hard at a critical moment.

  • Reply 12 of 40
    stelligentstelligent Posts: 2,680member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by rhyde View Post



    Of course, most people will complain that the '5S' isn't a game changer, too. At least if the release of the 4S and 3GS is any indication. People will bitch that the thing isn't redesigned (assuming history holds true on the way Apple does things).

     


     


    It will be hard for any phone to be a game changer now, unless it is no longer a phone.

  • Reply 13 of 40
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    stelligent wrote: »
    I agree with you in principle. But ... If I were to look at the Samsung Galaxy line on its own merits (and forget whether and how much they copied Apple), they have done a good job. The Galaxy S is a good phone (have used it, programmed on it, etc.). It does not compare to the iPhone in spit and polish, but it is not a cheap phone. And there are advantages to the larger screen, even if the colors are not as good. More importantly, the Galaxy family offers options (an understatement). And they have marketed the hell out of the line. So really, to me, their sales numbers are not a surprise. There was/is a strong appetite to buying something different than what Apple offers and Samsung managed to make itself the top alternative. So they were poised to grow even more. But their marketing department dumped a turd. While it might not change the minds of those who already felt one way or the other about Samsung, there are many who are still undecided. A show like that will not sway them toward the S4.

    I am not shedding a tear for them. I am just surprised a company that has executed so well so far would stumble so hard at a critical moment.

    1) I agree with your comments about what Samsung has achieved but I see no connection to their event that will sway people toward or away from their products.

    2) My prediction is that Apple will take more ground from the smartphone market, andSamsung will take even more ground from the Android-based smartphone market.

    3) If you want to see a full report that includes up to three more words just send me $499 to get the full analysis as a zipped PDF.
  • Reply 14 of 40
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 1,965member


    2012 some people rushed to buy Galaxy S3 because it has a bigger screen than iPhone.  But I believe many later found out it is too big.  The S3 is 4.8".  Because it is more fragile than iPhone the S3 owners are forced to buy cases to protect it.  With a case the S3 is simply too big.  After they found out the trueth, will they upgrade to the even larger S4? 

  • Reply 15 of 40
    correctionscorrections Posts: 1,345member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    I really think the number is low that watched and even lower those that would be affected by it. It was weird (as usual) and just seemed wrong in so many ways but I have already made my mind up about Samsung and I wager that most who would take the time to watch or read up on it also already have a general feeling about Samsung. The average person simply won't know that Samsung even had an event.


     


    Samsung's flop event is important because it erases the notion that "Samsung is the new Apple," an idea that a variety of Apple's critics had reason to spread.


     


    It's as important as Microsoft's back to back flops of the Zune, KIN, WiMo/WP and other initiatives that made it clear Microsoft was NOT an Apple. 


     


    HP did essentially the same thing when it set up a press event for webOS and bored journalists to tears. The public at large didn't need to see the MSFT and HP events. It was the media seeing proof positive that there was simply no credibility in the story that "Apple had been surpassed" that changed the tune. And the public saw a sudden marked change in how the prospects of MSFT, HP and now Samsung are going to be reported. 


     


    Investors too saw that this story about "Samsung = Apple" was a BS smokescreen. 


     


    It's like creating hype around a moderately skilled athlete who goes to the olympics and chokes. Apple is under intense scrutiny. All these other companies in its shadows are getting a free pass, right up until they go on stage and blow it. At that point, the free ride turns into an unanticipated crisis they don't know how to recover from, because they've been riding on a cloud of BS for so long. Samsung just lost its midas touch, and will now have to actually perform under more intense scrutiny. The kind of pressure Apple gets when it unveils a new device with completely revamped hardware and lots of strong new features, and is still met with a "meah I'm bored, you didn't entertain me enough" response from the jackass tech media.  


     


    Welcome to the big leagues, Samsung. At this point you have to start delivering or you'll be the next Zune. 

  • Reply 16 of 40
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    Samsung's flop event is important because it erases the notion that "Samsung is the new Apple," an idea that a variety of Apple's critics had reason to spread.

    Interesting PoV. I can't say that I've ever considered Samsung the next Apple but I see your point as to how others could be leaning that way and their articles about the event could sway the masses that were too disinterested to watch the event.

    Is that event considered the reason why Apple's stock went up?
  • Reply 17 of 40
    sockrolidsockrolid Posts: 2,788member


    Maybe it's time for a BOGO sale, eh, Sammy?  That's "Buy One, Get One."  


    (Sorry, don't know how to say that in Korean.)


     


    BOGO worked for a while on Verizon, which used to be Android's safe haven in the US.


    Until Verizon got iPhone, which now dominates Verizon's smartphone sales.


    As you'd expect.

  • Reply 18 of 40
    isaidsoisaidso Posts: 750member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post



    Samsung spanked itself on Broadway, and I mean that literally and metaphorically (you know which metaphor I am talking about).



    Even if the new S4 was capable of blowing away the competition (which it wasn't), the presentation hit all the wrong notes. It was brief where it should have lingered, and it lingered where it should have skipped. Choosing style over substance and adding unmistakably misogynistic overtones just made the whole show one of those "I can't believe they did that" spectacles. If, indeed, Apple outsells Samsung significantly this year and next, we can remember 2013 as the year in which Samsung jumped the shark; on Broadway, no less.




    Do you really think that a great many people saw that?


    Nope. Only the people that matter most.

  • Reply 19 of 40
    isaidsoisaidso Posts: 750member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post




    Quote:

    Originally Posted by stelligent View Post



    Does it matter? Embarrassing is embarrassing.



    Obviously, the audience was not a large number by Apple's standards. But many smartphone "journalists" and bloggers (including Apple bloggers) live-tweeted or even live-blogged the event. The event was reviewed by all the usual suspects and then some. Half a million views on YouTube so far.



    So the word got out there. 




    I really think the number is low that watched and even lower those that would be affected by it. It was weird (as usual) and just seemed wrong in so many ways but I have already made my mind up about Samsung and I wager that most who would take the time to watch or read up on it also already have a general feeling about Samsung. The average person simply won't know that Samsung even had an event.


    I think you're underplaying the event a bit.


    This certainly was no "Apple Event". But Samsung spent untold monies producing and marketing this thing. Invitations flowed, and the event was covered by every news and tech (and "tech news") outlet out there.


    This wasn't Marvel announcing some new chip.

  • Reply 20 of 40
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,980member
    solipsismx wrote: »
    Interesting PoV. I can't say that I've ever considered Samsung the next Apple but I see your point as to how others could be leaning that way and their articles about the event could sway the masses that were too disinterested to watch the event.

    Is that event considered the reason why Apple's stock went up?

    I still don't buy it. Was last year's event much better? Does anyone even remember last year's event? As good as Apple's presentations are it is not the reason their devices sell so well and Samsung's bad presentation isn't going to make their devices bomb.
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