IHS sees netbooks dead by 2015, blames Apple's iPad

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
Even as the wider PC industry declines thanks to the rise of mobile devices, IHS is predicting that one segment in particular will be fully dead within two years, with Apple's iPad as the primary driver in its decline.

iphone 4s
Apple's iPad, shown here with a Belkin keyboard dock, performs most of the same duties as a netbook.


Netbooks were supposed to be the bridge between mobile devices like smartphones and the traditional PC form factor. The category peaked in 2010 with 32.14 million units shipped. That's also the same year that Apple's iPad hit the market, and it's been a rapid downhill slide for the netbook category since.

IHS iSuppli has released a new report saying that netbook shipments for 2013 will be only a bit over 10 percent of that 2010 total, according to the LA Times. The 3.97 million unit figure forecast for 2013 is not just a precipitous drop from 2010's figure, though: it's a 72 percent drop from 2012's shipments.

The news doesn't get better for the category. By 2014, IHS predicts, the netbook segment will move just 264,000 units. By 2015, IHS believes the segment will be dead, with no units shipped.

"Netbooks shot to popularity immediately after launch because they were optimized for low cost, delivering what many consumers believed as acceptable computer performance," IHS analyst Craig Stice said in the report. "However, netbooks began their descent into oblivion with the introduction in 2010 of Apple's iPad."

Apple's bestselling tablet has come to the forefront of a struggling PC industry. As consumers increasingly opt for smartphones and tablets over traditional computing form factors, virtually no manufacturer is immune from the resulting PC downturn. The iPad, though, has been ? as Apple CEO Tim Cook called it ? the poster child of the Post-PC revolution, and now accounts for one in every six shipped computers.

Prior to the iPad's introduction, a number of analysts and industry observers thought it inevitable that Apple would release its own device to compete in the netbook segment. In the netbook's heyday, the cheapest portable MacBook was still twice or more the cost of the cheapest netbooks.

Then-Apple CEO Steve Jobs repeatedly dismissed the netbook category, saying it wasn't an area Apple was interested in.

"We don't know how to make a $500 computer that's not a piece of junk, and our DNA will not let us ship that," Jobs said in 2008 when asked about the possibility of an Apple netbook.

Apple eventually responded to the netbook category, though, releasing the iPad in 2010 and delivering what Jobs deemed a "true third-category device." Touting the iPad, Jobs once again dismissed the netbook segment as incomplete and not really delivering what consumers wanted.





"The problem is: netbooks aren't better at anything," Jobs said. "They're slow, they have low-quality displays, and they run clunky, old PC software. We don't think they're a third-category device."
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 75
    These IT consulting firm predictions are, of course, worth the paper they're written on, but if it does come to pass, it would a stunning validation of Steve's foresight.

    Something tells me that it will. Maybe not in 2015, maybe before, maybe after, but it will.
  • Reply 2 of 75
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    Netbooks died in January 2010. How stupid do you have to be to not see that, much less think they'll be around two MORE years?


     


    Then again, VGA has ANOTHER YEAR of support, meaning it will be on motherboards until the bitter end. You can still find computers with PS/2 ports, after all.

  • Reply 3 of 75
    jpvnjpvn Posts: 40member
    But, i thought apple is no selling enough ipads and the company is domed? now is there fault that notebooks don't sale ??? I don't get this people....
  • Reply 4 of 75
    undedunded Posts: 43member


    Damn you Apple for making my once media-awesomely-taunted netbook! I'll jump on the litigation band wagon and sue you! Just in case some of you dumb asses don't know what sarcasm is, this ain't it you moron! Long live netbooks!

  • Reply 5 of 75
    analogjackanalogjack Posts: 1,063member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jpvn View Post



    But, i thought apple is no selling enough ipads and the company is domed


     


    It's true...


     


     



     


  • Reply 6 of 75
    xzuxzu Posts: 139member


    Funny, just having this conversation yesterday. I always wondered why Apple has ignored the desktop (Mac Pro) when the iPad will clearly cannibalize laptops as they increase in features and power. Laptops are ergonomic nightmare, and will look look like 1980's cell phones in a few years.

  • Reply 7 of 75
    chris_cachris_ca Posts: 2,543member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by unDED View Post


    Damn you Apple for making my once media-awesomely-taunted netbook!



    Apple never made netbooks.


     


     


    Quote:


     I'll jump on the litigation band wagon and sue you! Just in case some of you dumb asses don't know what sarcasm is, this ain't it you moron!



    Since this is not sarcasm, you are gonna jump on the bandwagon and sue Apple?


     


    Who's the dumb-ass moron? 

  • Reply 8 of 75
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 4,428member


    The only folks thinking that netbooks were going to clean house were moronic cheapskates and phandroids.  Netbooks were garbage to begin with, using cheapo component and had laughable quality-control.



    Plenty of those people trolling on this site will continue to sit quietly in the shadows and hope nobody calls them out on their hugely stupid opinions.



    Netbooks were doomed to fail.  I'm glad they went belly-up.  Shame that valuable resources were wasted on this landfill crap.  Shame on the people that defended this product line.

  • Reply 9 of 75
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    I still see netbooks in coffee shops and such but it's not very often. I mostly see Mac notebooks, then iPads (oft with keyboard cases that make it a netbook-style device that is usable), then non-Mac notebooks, then netbooks.
  • Reply 10 of 75
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,973member
    chris_ca wrote: »
    Apple never made netbooks.


    Since this is not sarcasm, you are gonna jump on the bandwagon and sue Apple?

    Who's the dumb-ass moron? 

    Sure they do. MBAs are netbooks done properly.
  • Reply 11 of 75
    undedunded Posts: 43member


    To answer your question: you are since you took the bait. But thanks for the laugh.

  • Reply 12 of 75
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    dasanman69 wrote: »
    Sure they do. MBAs are netbooks done properly.

    Netbooks came out of Intel releasing the Atom processor, a very, very inexpensive chip. The MBAs have never used an Atom processor. In fact, there CPUs are SFF (small form factor) ULV (ulta-low voltage) Core processors. By themselves these CULV SFFs cost as much the average netbook.

    ULV processors have existed for years, but these SFF chips are something Intel had created then shelved as there was no market for them before Apple wanted to make a thin, lightweight notebook that eschewed components (i.e.: optical disc drive) many users simply don't use or need. What Apple made what in no way a netbook but a quality, ultralight notebook.

    On top of that netbooks tend to come in diminutive sizes in the 10" range. The MBA was only a 13" machine for the first 2 years of its life, only being released as an 11" model in October 2010.

    Finally, all MBAs are reasonably capable of doing much more what a netbook could do. The word "net" is quite apropos as they couldn't reasonable do much more than surf the net, and choked with Flash videos past 480p. The MBAs are certainly slower than MacBooks (just as MacBooks are slower than MacBook Pros), but they are no way the same class of machine. It's like comparing Steak-umm® to an actual steak.
  • Reply 13 of 75
    petrosypetrosy Posts: 51member
    Netbooks were killed by Microsoft....forcing oems to install Windows over Linux and restricting screen sizes to 10in.

    Basically held the industry to ransom...
  • Reply 14 of 75
    hmmhmm Posts: 3,405member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


    Netbooks died in January 2010. How stupid do you have to be to not see that, much less think they'll be around two MORE years?



     


    The whole netbook thing was executed poorly. They were originally designed to run some flavor of Linux rather than Windows.


     


     


    Quote:


    Then again, VGA has ANOTHER YEAR of support, meaning it will be on motherboards until the bitter end. You can still find computers with PS/2 ports, after all.




    They aren't there for average user general content consumption. VGA held out due to projectors.. Serial ports I'm guessing debugging of some kind or some other specialized use case. There are a lot of annoying corner cases, but you don't find either on the majority of machines these days.

  • Reply 15 of 75
    bdkennedy1bdkennedy1 Posts: 1,459member
    I don't know a single person that has a netbook that loves it.
  • Reply 16 of 75
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,973member
    solipsismx wrote: »
    Netbooks came out of Intel releasing the Atom processor, a very, very inexpensive chip. The MBAs have never used an Atom processor. In fact, there CPUs are SFF (small form factor) ULV (ulta-low voltage) Core processors. By themselves these CULV SFFs cost as much the average netbook.

    ULV processors have existed for years, but these SFF chips are something Intel had created then shelved as there was no market for them before Apple wanted to make a thin, lightweight notebook that eschewed components (i.e.: optical disc drive) many users simply don't use or need. What Apple made what in no way a netbook but a quality, ultralight notebook.

    On top of that netbooks tend to come in diminutive sizes in the 10" range. The MBA was only a 13" machine for the first 2 years of its life, only being released as an 11" model in October 2010.

    Finally, all MBAs are reasonably capable of doing much more what a netbook could do. The word "net" is quite apropos as they couldn't reasonable do much more than surf the net, and choked with Flash videos past 480p. The MBAs are certainly slower than MacBooks (just as MacBooks are slower than MacBook Pros), but they are no way the same class of machine. It's like comparing Steak-umm® to an actual steak.

    Or a iPhone to a Palm Treo? The Treo was a smartphone and the vastly superior iPhone is as well. I would say that most netbooks are a Smart Car and a MBA a Ferrari but they're both still cars.
  • Reply 17 of 75
    solipsismxsolipsismx Posts: 19,566member
    dasanman69 wrote: »
    Or a iPhone to a Palm Treo? The Treo was a smartphone and the vastly superior iPhone is as well. I would say that most netbooks are a Smart Car and a MBA a Ferrari but they're both still cars.

    I'm not getting your point since I never said that netbooks weren't notebooks, which is analogous to your car comment which implies I said otherwise. MBAs are notebooks. Netbooks are notebooks. MBAs aren't netbooks, a soon to be completely dead sub-category of notebooks. Ultrabooks are an Intel-based branding for the ultralight notebook sub-category that the MBA started. They usually 13" and have no ODD. They are not netbooks.
  • Reply 18 of 75

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismX View Post





    I'm not getting your point since I never said that netbooks weren't notebooks, which is analogous to your car comment which implies I said otherwise. MBAs are notebooks. Netbooks are notebooks. MBAs aren't netbooks, a soon to be completely dead sub-category of notebooks. Ultrabooks are an Intel-based branding for the ultralight notebook sub-category that the MBA started. They usually 13" and have no ODD. They are not netbooks.


    This made me think of the below from Big Bang Theory:


     


    Zack: Is that like all thumbs are fingers, but not all fingers are thumbs?


    Sheldon: Surprisingly ... yes!

  • Reply 19 of 75
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,973member
    solipsismx wrote: »
    I'm not getting your point since I never said that netbooks weren't notebooks, which is analogous to your car comment which implies I said otherwise. MBAs are notebooks. Netbooks are notebooks. MBAs aren't netbooks, a soon to be completely dead sub-category of notebooks. Ultrabooks are an Intel-based branding for the ultralight notebook sub-category that the MBA started. They usually 13" and have no ODD. They are not netbooks.

    It's all semantics. No but you said how much more powerful a MBA is to the average netbook, and I compared the power between the iPhone and a Treo. While I'll agree that the 13" MBA is a notebook the 11" is more akin to a netbook which you guys act like is a bad word. Using that logic you should think tablet is a bad word considering all the crappy tablets (which were way worse than netbooks) that existed before the iPad.
  • Reply 20 of 75
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,973member
    This made me think of the below from Big Bang Theory:

    Zack: Is that like all thumbs are fingers, but not all fingers are thumbs?
    Sheldon: Surprisingly ... yes!

    Yes but all thumbs are thumbs no matter how big or small, and all penises are dicks but not all dicks are penises.
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