Verizon's sales suggest Apple may have sold 34.7M iPhones in June quarter

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
iPhone activation figures from Verizon, the largest carrier in the U.S., suggest that Apple could have sold as many as 34.7 million iPhones in the just-concluded June quarter.

iPhone 5


That estimate was provided to investors on Thursday by analyst Maynard Um of Wells Fargo, who noted that Verizon has accounted, on average, for 11 percent of Apple's total iPhone sales over the last six quarters.

If that average holds true again for concluded June quarter, Verizon's share would mean Apple sold nearly 35 million iPhones during the three-month period. That's well ahead of consensus Wall Street expectations for the quarter, which call for Apple to have shipped about 26.5 million iPhones.

The projected figure is also 8.7 million units higher than Um's own prediction of 26 million iPhone units sold in the June quarter. Market watchers in general have conservative expectations for the quarter, with the flagship iPhone 5 approaching one year of availability.

The conventional thinking is that iPhone sales will have inevitably weakened as consumers begin waiting for Apple's next model before they upgrade. But this year Apple may be seeing particularly strong sales of its legacy handsets, the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley suggested earlier this week.

For comparison, Apple shipped 26 million iPhones in the June quarter last year, helping the company earn $28.6 billion in revenue and net profit of $7.3 billion. iPhone sales in the third quarter of 2012 represented a 28 percent year-over-year increase from the same period in 2011.

Apple will reveal its results next Tuesday after markets in the U.S. close. Executives from the company will then participate in a conference call with investors and members of the press beginning at 5 p.m. Eastern, 2 p.m. Pacific. AppleInsider will have full, live coverage.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 30
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,221member


    Makes sense, unless we got massive internationnal sale decrease, or if Verizon stole a lot of customers to AT&T. That 11% rule of thumb really seems to worked, last quarter VZ sold 4 millions phones out of the 37 millions. Last year 2.7 millions out of the 26 millions.


     


    30 millions or more would be a great number, even if EPS is still down on lower margins.

  • Reply 2 of 30
    We have one unexpectedly great data point, so let's just assume ALL of the data will be this unexpectedly good! That way, when Apple falls short, we can blame them instead of our own flawed analysis!

    I'm so sick of this crap. Just another manipulation so that, no matter what Apple reports next week, it'll fall short of their newly-overhyped expectations.
  • Reply 3 of 30
    tundraboytundraboy Posts: 1,613member
    Wait, this can't be true. Isn't Apple already dead in the water? /s
  • Reply 4 of 30
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,282member
    Interesting.
  • Reply 5 of 30
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,221member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by docwallaby View Post



    We have one unexpectedly great data point, so let's just assume ALL of the data will be this unexpectedly good! That way, when Apple falls short, we can blame them instead of our own flawed analysis!



    I'm so sick of this crap. Just another manipulation so that, no matter what Apple reports next week, it'll fall short of their newly-overhyped expectations.


     


    imo anything above 30 millions will pop the stock hard.  BTW Google is getting slam ATM, bad earnings.

  • Reply 6 of 30
    blackbookblackbook Posts: 1,361member
    I'm sure sales in the US are higher but international sales are probably down.

    People in Europe aren't paying $500 for a 2 year old phone.

    For us in the US the iPhone 4 is an amazing deal at $0 with 2 year contract. Far more attractive than the 3GS was at that price point last year.
  • Reply 7 of 30
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,679member
    docwallaby wrote: »
    We have one unexpectedly great data point, so let's just assume ALL of the data will be this unexpectedly good! That way, when Apple falls short, we can blame them instead of our own flawed analysis!

    I'm so sick of this crap. Just another manipulation so that, no matter what Apple reports next week, it'll fall short of their newly-overhyped expectations.

    Yep, analysts hype some large number then act surprised Apple did not beat their consensus guess.
  • Reply 8 of 30
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    herbapou wrote: »
    imo anything above 30 millions will pop the stock hard.  BTW Google is getting slam ATM, bad earnings.
    And Microsoft is down almost 5% due to Surface write down. Wow. Who knows where they'll end up tomorrow but still a bit of a surprise...
  • Reply 9 of 30
    11thindian11thindian Posts: 181member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by docwallaby View Post



    We have one unexpectedly great data point, so let's just assume ALL of the data will be this unexpectedly good! That way, when Apple falls short, we can blame them instead of our own flawed analysis!



    I'm so sick of this crap. Just another manipulation so that, no matter what Apple reports next week, it'll fall short of their newly-overhyped expectations.


     


    In this particular case, when Verizon's percentage of total iPhone sales has been so consistent over many quarters- I don't think you need to treat it with the same vitriol as most "analysis".  Of course, the percentage could change.  But until it does it's a pretty solid data point.

  • Reply 10 of 30
    512ke512ke Posts: 782member


    Well, this news is necessary to get the expectations UP, so that the stock can go DOWN when the analysts are now "disappointed" that Apple didn't meet their 34.7 M "expectation."


     


    Otherwise everyone would have been surprised, and the stock would have gone UP.

  • Reply 11 of 30
    Eventually Apples numbers will speak for themselves, for better or for worse
  • Reply 12 of 30
    agramonteagramonte Posts: 345member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by herbapou View Post


     


    imo anything above 30 millions will pop the stock hard.  BTW Google is getting slam ATM, bad earnings.



     


    what bad earning?... they made 9.56 a share on 19% growth year over year... but analyst wanted 10.78


     


    it is the same BS wallstreet is doing to every Tech company, including Apple - when they do not meet some self-serving expectation.

  • Reply 13 of 30
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by agramonte View Post


     


    what bad earning?... they made 9.56 a share on 19% growth year over year... but analyst wanted 10.78


     


    it is the same BS wallstreet is doing to every Tech company, including Apple - when they do not meet some self-serving expectation.



    The other aspect of that single hard number I truly do not like is that since it's the average of a spread of estimates the real world number should be compared to the range, not a simplistic single number "average", consensus. In science terms, where's the error bars?

  • Reply 14 of 30
    pendergastpendergast Posts: 1,358member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by agramonte View Post


     


    what bad earning?... they made 9.56 a share on 19% growth year over year... but analyst wanted 10.78


     


    it is the same BS wallstreet is doing to every Tech company, including Apple - when they do not meet some self-serving expectation.



     


    Yeah, except Google's minions have been slamming Apple for what's now happening to them. Poetic justice, no?


     


    When you're on top, the only way to go is down.

  • Reply 15 of 30
    agramonteagramonte Posts: 345member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Pendergast View Post


     


    Yeah, except Google's minions have been slamming Apple for what's now happening to them. Poetic justice, no?


     


    When you're on top, the only way to go is down.



     


    that logic makes no sense to me - you better off ignoring the "slamming" if you think the logic in their argument is flawed. Taking it for yourself if it is beneficial at some point in the future just adds to the nonsense.

  • Reply 16 of 30
    ankleskaterankleskater Posts: 1,287member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jfc1138 View Post


    The other aspect of that single hard number I truly do not like is that since it's the average of a spread of estimates the real world number should be compared to the range, not a simplistic single number "average", consensus. In science terms, where's the error bars?



    I agree that it's misleading that use a simple average. But asking "where's the error bars" is not what one would call science terms :)


     


    Ever since Verizon started carrying the iPhone, their % of total iPhone sales have been: 11.3%, 9.1%, 10.4%, 11.5%, 13.0% and 10.7%. Assuming a representation of 13% again, Apple would have shipped 29.5M iPhones last quarter. But if Verizon has dipped down to 9.1% again, Apple's number would be 42.1M. If the consensus estimate of 26.5M is spot on, then Verizon's number would represent 14.4% of the total - a notably larger slice of the pie than they have ever had. So, this time, Katy Huberty might have called it closer than others.

  • Reply 17 of 30
    But the iPhone is not selling! The smart phone market has matured! Supplier and inside sources show that aapl has cut production by 30%. Android is stealing marketshare in US! I could go on and on but can't think of anything that hasn't been repeated since last September! Oh wait, regardless of how many iPhones are sold the analysts only care about margins. Even though google missed on the top and bottom and missed the last 2 out of 4 people are still screaming 1000/share
  • Reply 18 of 30
    blackbookblackbook Posts: 1,361member
    I agree that it's misleading that use a simple average. But asking "where's the error bars" is not what one would call science terms :)

    Ever since Verizon started carrying the iPhone, their % of total iPhone sales have been: 11.3%, 9.1%, 10.4%, 11.5%, 13.0% and 10.7%. Assuming a representation of 13% again, Apple would have shipped 29.5M iPhones last quarter. But if Verizon has dipped down to 9.1% again, Apple's number would be 42.1M. If the consensus estimate of 26.5M is spot on, then Verizon's number would represent 14.4% of the total - a notably larger slice of the pie than they have ever had. So, this time, Katy Huberty might have called it closer than others.

    Great post.

    I think Verizon's share of iPhone sales, and the US's share of iPhone sales, in general will be far higher than normal.

    It seems that the "free" iPhone 4 is driving sales on US carriers and other countries don't have that benefit.

    That being the case I think a 13% share for Verizon would be more realistic with the share at AT&T an other US carriers higher as well with international sales declining a bit.

    The low cost iPhone can't come soon enough IMO.
  • Reply 19 of 30
    ankleskaterankleskater Posts: 1,287member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by blackbook View Post





    Great post.



    I think Verizon's share of iPhone sales, and the US's share of iPhone sales, in general will be far higher than normal.



    It seems that the "free" iPhone 4 is driving sales on US carriers and other countries don't have that benefit.



    That being the case I think a 13% share for Verizon would be more realistic with the share at AT&T an other US carriers higher as well with international sales declining a bit.



    The low cost iPhone can't come soon enough IMO.


    Didn't Verizon suggest that half of the iPhone sales are IP5? That would suggest iP5 is selling well, too.


     


    I do wonder, if the so-called low cost iP does emerge, would it sell better than iP4 and iP4S? After all, Apple can't go cheaper than free.

  • Reply 20 of 30
    kdarlingkdarling Posts: 1,640member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ankleskater View Post


    Ever since Verizon started carrying the iPhone, their % of total iPhone sales have been: 11.3%, 9.1%, 10.4%, 11.5%, 13.0% and 10.7%.



     


    Of course, those percentages are actually comparing two different measurement units... activations and sales.


     


    (VZ new iPhone activations + VZ used iPhone activations)  


    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    (total world new iPhone sales)


     


     


    Since the iPhone came out on Verizon in early 2011, then for the past two years, activations have probably been very close to new unit sales.


     


    However, starting in 1Q 2013, millions of users came due for an upgrade after two years.  That means for 2Q 2013, we should begin seeing a much higher percentage of activations being done by used devices.


     


    --


     


    How much higher?  In the past, used device activations on AT&T (who has had the iPhone the longest) have ranged from 11% to over 20% of all activations.


     


    If similar, Verizon's reported 3.9 million activations would mean they actually sold between 3.1 and 3.5 million new iPhones.


     


    Now, and this is the leap in logic, IF the usual Verizon NEW phone activations = about 11% of new sales continues to hold up, then that would predict total world sales between 28 to 31.5 million.


     


    It'll be interesting to see what it really is.

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