Why Tim Cook described Apple's iOS in the Car strategy as 'very important'

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  • Reply 21 of 104
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,963member
    Yup. Just like Apple was behind the game in mobile phones and tablets. It sure was a long, slow slosh for them to crack the market. Hmmm .... :)

    Big difference. Those are standalone devices, but this is built into a car. I just can't see someone NOT buying a BMW because it has iDrive and not iOS in the car.
  • Reply 22 of 104
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,963member
    danielsw wrote: »
    Wrong. You're as arrogant as MS if you think that its established market is safe from being breached by Apple. iOS is simply a superior ecosystem which Apple has been resolutely and inexorably building since the original iPhone. Ignore or deny this at you peril!

    How is he wrong? Regardless of how superior iOS is Apple cannot force their way into cars.
  • Reply 23 of 104
    jasenj1jasenj1 Posts: 905member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by techguy911 View Post


    Phone - Car integration will be great, but I really think we need a standard that allows any car to work with any phone.  I fear Apple will create a proprietary Apple only integration, then Android will create an Android only, MS has something already.  Then we have a mess of cars that work with different phones.  


     


    This is why these things never take off and become widely used.  Companies need to put down their greed and ego and agree on a single standard so car manufacturers will be willing to add the feature to the majority of their cars.



    Agreed. I'd much rather see the car companies and mobile device manufacturers develop standards & protocols for interoperability. Europe is probably the place to look for leadership here.


     


    - Jasen.

  • Reply 24 of 104

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post





    How is he wrong? Regardless of how superior iOS is Apple cannot force their way into cars.


    It seems you've missed the current count of car companies who've already committed to implementing it... This is primarily for Pennypacker.

  • Reply 25 of 104
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,963member
    It seems you've missed the current count of car companies who've already committed to implementing it... This is primarily for Pennypacker.<img alt="" class="lightbox-enabled" data-id="28832" data-type="61" src="http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/28832/width/500/height/1000/flags/LL" style="; width: 500px; height: 281px">

    I don't see any of the big 3 on there though Chevrolet is part of GM.
  • Reply 26 of 104
    ankleskaterankleskater Posts: 1,287member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post





    Nope. 20 years at the earliest. Self drive tech is 15 years old and nothin really new. It will be introduced in stages over the next 20 to 30 years.


    I disagree. There is plenty new about it.


     


    If you call it old just because there have been proof of concepts throughput the last 20 years, then nothing is new.

  • Reply 27 of 104
    lilgto64lilgto64 Posts: 1,147member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ascii View Post


    I agree with the 5-7 year figure. ICT grows exponentially not linearly, there are years of flat growth then it suddenly takes off.


     


    With computerised maps getting more and more complete and accurate, cheap GPS, cheap sensors, self-parking cars already on the market, the DARPA Grand Challenge so successful/solved that they stopped doing cars and moved on to humanoid robots, the US Army using self-driving convoys in Afghanistan, and even legislature is catching up like you say, several US states and now the UK making self-driving cars legal.



     


    Going to take more than 20 years for sure. Regardless of what is technologically possible and how much improvement will be made each year - the simple fact is that if there are about 300,000,000 cars on the road in the US - and about 15,000,000 sold each year 300/15 = 20 years. or even if you use 2007 data which is more like 250,000,000 cars on the road and more generous 17,000,000 or even 20,000,000 cars sold each year (still talking just US here) - that means it would take at least 12 years to replace the majority of cars on the road - and that would be assuming a 100% total cut over to all self driving cars immediately. 


     


    Aside from technological issues - there will also be legal issues, sociological issues, psychological issue, perhaps infrastructure improvements, government regulations etc. that all must be overcome. 


     


    Perhaps the majority of cars made 20 years from now will have features such as self parking (or at least assisted parking), and voice-controll (that works), and perhaps most brands will be offering a fully self driving car in at least some states. 


     


    I saw a stat that said the average age of cars on the road today is 10.8 years - so there is that as well - even if 100% of new cars starting tomorrow were self-driving - at least half the cars on the road would still be cars that are already on the road right now. 

  • Reply 28 of 104

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post





    I don't see any of the big 3 on there though Chevrolet is part of GM.




    They may not have the big 3 but they do have the largest automarker in the world in toyota


     


    Now I just wish that Toyota would release a software update to replace the crappy entune system they have in my current car

  • Reply 29 of 104
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    ascii wrote: »
    I think cars will self-drive in a few years…
    allenbf wrote: »
    I think probably 5-7 years max before they're commonplace. 10-12 years before a majority on the road are driven by sensors, not human.

    You're both being FAR too optimistic. Coming from me, the quintessential technology optimist (NO, that's not sarcasm! You just don't see it in me HERE because there's zero reason to ever be optimistic about Apple), you know it's time to reevaluate. :p

    It's not that the tech won't be viable by the end of the teens. It's not that multiple companies, not just Google, will have solutions by then. It's that the automobile manufacturers won't do it and the government will do what the automobile manufacturers say. You won't see them legal in many states until economy forces the law through. And even then you'll still have most of the manufacturers ignore it. Additionally, when they finally do start making them, it will be ONE model at a time. ~Two decades to the first production model means another decade or TWO after that before all models by that manufacturer (one manufacturer, remember) also have it.

    Never MIND the fact that people keep their cars for up to (or over) a decade. Because they run that long. Self-driving cars won't even be the majority in the United States (much less anywhere else on the face of the Earth) for, what, 50 years after the first model comes out from the first manufacturer.

    And then the rest of the planet will still be using regular cars. Decades-old regular cars.

    We'll see iOS as the console in Tesla vehicles before self-driving cars enter production. :p
    It will improve safety…

    I don't trust Google with my family recipes, phone numbers, or addresses. I will NEVER trust them with my life. Safety! Ha.

    I say when the rich people want to swap out their first run of production self-driving cars, some should be sold to state and local governments for use with idiots. You know, the DUIs, reckless drivers, and the like. Leave the rest of us to afford them if we want them, but get the menaces out of control early, you know? They don't deserve brand new cars, but they also don't need to be driving.

    Even if a portion of the cars on the road can self-drive, you're right; that will do a lot to help traffic. All cars can communicate no matter where they are, so thousands of them could automatically choose an alternate route 10 minutes in advance because tens of thousands of humans decided to jam up.
  • Reply 30 of 104

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post







    You're both being FAR too optimistic. Coming from me, the quintessential technology optimist (NO, that's not sarcasm! You just don't see it in me HERE because there's zero reason to ever be optimistic about Apple), you know it's time to reevaluate. image



    It's not that the tech won't be viable by the end of the teens. It's not that multiple companies, not just Google, will have solutions by then. It's that the automobile manufacturers won't do it and the government will do what the automobile manufacturers say. You won't see them legal in many states until economy forces the law through. And even then you'll still have most of the manufacturers ignore it. Additionally, when they finally do start making them, it will be ONE model at a time. ~Two decades to the first production model means another decade or TWO after that before all models by that manufacturer (one manufacturer, remember) also have it.



    Never MIND the fact that people keep their cars for up to (or over) a decade. Because they run that long. Self-driving cars won't even be the majority in the United States (much less anywhere else on the face of the Earth) for, what, 50 years after the first model comes out from the first manufacturer.



    And then the rest of the planet will still be using regular cars. Decades-old regular cars.



    We'll see iOS as the console in Tesla vehicles before self-driving cars enter production. image


     


    I hope you're wrong here. Self driving cars cannot come fast enough for me. I'd love to be able to sit in the car and just read a book on the way to work

  • Reply 31 of 104
    vorsosvorsos Posts: 302member


    With Google putting so much R&D money into autonomous cars, they will have to recoup their investment with cars constantly offering to drive you to sponsored locations.


     


    "You don't currently have coffee breath. Drive to Starbucks?"


     


     



    johnnyb0731 View Post


    Self driving cars cannot come fast enough for me. I'd love to be able to sit in the car and just read a book on the way to work



    How's the public transit in your area?

  • Reply 32 of 104
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    I hope you're wrong here. Self driving cars cannot come fast enough for me. I'd love to be able to sit in the car and just read a book on the way to work

    And crash and die because the system failed and you weren't paying attention. :p

    As magical and wonderful as your scenario (and those dreamed up by thousands of others) would be, it's just not realistic. You'll always have to be sitting in the driver's seat, and always have to be ready at a moment's notice to take over control.
  • Reply 33 of 104
    techguy911techguy911 Posts: 267member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post







    You're both being FAR too optimistic. Coming from me, the quintessential technology optimist (NO, that's not sarcasm! You just don't see it in me HERE because there's zero reason to ever be optimistic about Apple), you know it's time to reevaluate. image



    It's not that the tech won't be viable by the end of the teens. It's not that multiple companies, not just Google, will have solutions by then. It's that the automobile manufacturers won't do it and the government will do what the automobile manufacturers say. You won't see them legal in many states until economy forces the law through. And even then you'll still have most of the manufacturers ignore it. Additionally, when they finally do start making them, it will be ONE model at a time. ~Two decades to the first production model means another decade or TWO after that before all models by that manufacturer (one manufacturer, remember) also have it.



    Never MIND the fact that people keep their cars for up to (or over) a decade. Because they run that long. Self-driving cars won't even be the majority in the United States (much less anywhere else on the face of the Earth) for, what, 50 years after the first model comes out from the first manufacturer.



    And then the rest of the planet will still be using regular cars. Decades-old regular cars.



    We'll see iOS as the console in Tesla vehicles before self-driving cars enter production. image

    I don't trust Google with my family recipes, phone numbers, or addresses. I will NEVER trust them with my life. Safety! Ha.



    I say when the rich people want to swap out their first run of production self-driving cars, some should be sold to state and local governments for use with idiots. You know, the DUIs, reckless drivers, and the like. Leave the rest of us to afford them if we want them, but get the menaces out of control early, you know? They don't deserve brand new cars, but they also don't need to be driving.



    Even if a portion of the cars on the road can self-drive, you're right; that will do a lot to help traffic. All cars can communicate no matter where they are, so thousands of them could automatically choose an alternate route 10 minutes in advance because tens of thousands of humans decided to jam up.


     


    I don't see self-driving car happening any time in the next 30 years.  There have been proof-of-concept demos but that is under ideal conditions with experts watching for problems with the self-driving system.  The problem is there are an infinite number of possiblities while driving and roads are far from perfect.  It's going to be extremely difficult for self-driving systems to handle bad lines in the road, roads under construction, broken street lights, rain, snow, potholes, objects on the road, police directing traffic with hand signals, kids running into the street, other bad drivers on the road, signs redirecting traffic, left/right turn only lanes, needing to change lanes and people not letting you in, closed lanes, etc.....  Even if you make the argument that someone can take over in those cases, the self-driving system may not even be able to detect something is wrong and signal the driver to take over until it is too late.  And if drivers need to be constantly ready to take over at any moment's notice, that sort of defeats the purpose of a self-driving system.

  • Reply 34 of 104
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    techguy911 wrote: »
    …bad lines in the road…

    Do they even run off of those at all?
    roads under construction

    Since they know where said locations are, control will be given back to the human for that.
    broken street lights

    Same thing.
    …rain, snow…

    Why do you imagine they'd be worse than a human? They'll be better than a human at that.
    …potholes…

    Uh… big whoop.
    …objects on the road…

    They'll fly right through horse crap, but anything else won't cause them to swerve wildly…
    …police directing traffic with hand signals…

    Again, construction, so human control.
    …kids running into the street…

    Do you know what brakes are? :???: I don't get why that would be any different from the myriad other objects being sensed. The computer can react faster than a human.
    …other bad drivers on the road…

    That's the entire point of the system. Why would you need to bring it up?
    …signs redirecting traffic…

    Again, construction, which it knows about, so it would take said detour.
    …left/right turn only lanes…

    … Built… into the map…
    …needing to change lanes and people not letting you in…

    And that's the fundamental system itself, again.
    …closed lanes, etc…

    Traffic.

    I agree with you that a computer won't be able to handle what I mentioned as human above until, oh… let's say 2030. But I'd also say that it won't be taken into consideration for the first run of product. You're sitting in the driver's seat at all times; the car would be able to transfer control back to you for those sections. And of course you'd have control whenever you desired otherwise.
  • Reply 35 of 104

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Vorsos View Post


     


     


    How's the public transit in your area?



     


    Crummy

  • Reply 36 of 104
    asciiascii Posts: 5,940member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post



    It's not that the tech won't be viable by the end of the teens. It's not that multiple companies, not just Google, will have solutions by then. It's that the automobile manufacturers won't do it and the government will do what the automobile manufacturers say. You won't see them legal in many states until economy forces the law through. And even then you'll still have most of the manufacturers ignore it. Additionally, when they finally do start making them, it will be ONE model at a time. ~Two decades to the first production model means another decade or TWO after that before all models by that manufacturer (one manufacturer, remember) also have it.



    Never MIND the fact that people keep their cars for up to (or over) a decade. Because they run that long. Self-driving cars won't even be the majority in the United States (much less anywhere else on the face of the Earth) for, what, 50 years after the first model comes out from the first manufacturer.


    Why do you think automobile manufacturers would be reluctant to make these? Surely they will make just as much profit or more from an auto drive car as a non-autodrive one?


     


    And maybe people would replace their car sooner than usual if a new and compelling feature were to emerge. It would make a nice change to have some real advancements in cars for a change, rather than this slow and gradual nonsense of the last few decades.

  • Reply 37 of 104
    Cook better get on the phone with Elon Musk. The Tesla Model S is one of the most popular cars - not just EVs - on the planet. They have a 17" touchscreen on the dashboard with a home grown OS. They could really use Apple on that screen... :)
  • Reply 38 of 104
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    ascii wrote: »
    Why do you think automobile manufacturers would be reluctant to make these? Surely they will make just as much profit or more from an auto drive car as a non-autodrive one?

    The same reason we're 30 years since the creation of the first fully electric automobile and there are only FOUR models in existence right now, three of them from one company: they refuse to change for any reason at any time.
  • Reply 39 of 104
    techguy911techguy911 Posts: 267member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post





    Do they even run off of those at all?

    Since they know where said locations are, control will be given back to the human for that.

    Same thing.

    Why do you imagine they'd be worse than a human? They'll be better than a human at that.

    Uh… big whoop.

    They'll fly right through horse crap, but anything else won't cause them to swerve wildly…

    Again, construction, so human control.

    Do you know what brakes are? image I don't get why that would be any different from the myriad other objects being sensed. The computer can react faster than a human.

    That's the entire point of the system. Why would you need to bring it up?

    Again, construction, which it knows about, so it would take said detour.

    … Built… into the map…

    And that's the fundamental system itself, again.

    Traffic.



    I agree with you that a computer won't be able to handle what I mentioned as human above until, oh… let's say 2030. But I'd also say that it won't be taken into consideration for the first run of product. You're sitting in the driver's seat at all times; the car would be able to transfer control back to you for those sections. And of course you'd have control whenever you desired otherwise.


     


    That's why I said 30 years.  It's going to take at least that long until the infrastructure can be there for the system to know about all of the things you mentioned above.  I don't know what you meant about the entire point of the system handling bad drivers.  Until 100% of the cars on the road are self-driving that case must be handled.  And that's not going to happen for a REALLY long time.


     


    I also think a system that requires a driver to be constantly watching it ready to take over, is not going to happen.  It's too dangerous, no-one is going to be watching the road constantly like they need to and bad things are going to happen while they're not paying attention.

  • Reply 40 of 104
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,963member
    Crummy

    It's crummy everywhere. Unless you like unbathed hipsters, and peddlers.
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