Analyst: iPhone 5s & 5c lines suggest up to 6M opening weekend sales

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Eager Apple fans have lined up for the newest iPhone in numbers comparable to previous years, leading some analysts to believe that launch weekend sales for the device will be at or above what they were for last year's model.



Looking at lines in New York, Minneapolis, and San Francisco, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster found them about equal to the lines ahead of the iPhone 5's launch. While this year's lines are actually longer ? with more than 1,800 people queueing at the 5th Avenue and Upper West Side Apple Stores ? Munster attributes this in part to the lack of a preorder period for the iPhone 5s.

Given the length of the lines, Munster expressed confidence in Jaffray's previous estimate of between five and six million iPhones sold over the launch weekend for the two devices. The firm's price target for AAPL shares is $640, with a CY14 earnings per share estimate of $45.70.

Munster's estimate is conservative compared to that of KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. Kuo said in a note to investors that Apple will likely ship between six and eight million new iPhones over the first weekend of sales.

Long lines at Apple's retail stores and at carriers may allay some investor fears that Apple had underwhelmed consumers in revealing its newest generation of smartphones. Those fears were compounded by Apple declining to announce presale totals for the iPhone 5c when that device became available. Some observers took Apple's silence to indicate soft demand for the polycarbonate-backed 5c. Subsequent surveys, though, found that demand was strong for both the 5c and the 5s, and the queues in front of Apple Stores appear to bear out those results.

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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 45
    Meanwhile, in Japan, there's an Android user, on the left in below picture, getting tired of viruses:

    [IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/31910/width/500/height/1000[/IMG]
  • Reply 2 of 45
    I've never really been excited for an "S" iphone until this one. Would not surprise me if this one sells fast.

    Having said that, analysts extrapolating demand from queues seems worse than supply chain leaks.
  • Reply 3 of 45
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dugbug View Post



    I've never really been excited for an "S" iphone until this one. Would not surprise me if this one sells fast.



    Having said that, analysts extrapolating demand from queues seems worse than supply chain leaks.

     

    I hope the analysts aren't extrapolating 5C demand from the length of the queues. It seems like the vast majority of the line-ups are composed of 5S buyers. Hard to tell what the pre-order numbers are for the 5C.

  • Reply 4 of 45
    Eat crow Peter Misek and your buddy Karen Finerman who "lost confidence in Apple". I'll bet you have egg on your faces from your investors.
  • Reply 5 of 45

    Never underestimate the power of color.

  • Reply 6 of 45
    If I'm not mistaken, this is the first time you have been able to get an S-model phone that can be visually distinguished from its predecessor, and it's also the first time they've offered a $100 (subsidized) phone with a brand new exterior. That's not the kind of thing I care about too much, but I think a fair number of people do, so that should help with sales too.
  • Reply 7 of 45

    When Apple put in a compass to the iPhone a long time ago, for some reason I felt, I urgently needed a compass, as this is a really nice feature/sensor.

    Something similar (sensor-wise) never happened for me since then – until now: I have this urgent feeling, I need a fingerprint sensor. Seriously, this is a cool feature, and I feel rather outdated with my old fashioned, restricted, nothing more than a lame push button on my iPhone 5.

    In my opinion, Touch ID is still massively underestimated. 

  • Reply 8 of 45
    Blue 32gb 5C arrives today, Space Gray 5S arrives Oct. 6th. Gonna be a great release for Apple and Apple fans alike.
  • Reply 9 of 45
    winstein2010 2013/09/20 09:56am
    Never underestimate the power of color.

    I would say that never underestimate the power of gold.
  • Reply 10 of 45
    al_bundyal_bundy Posts: 1,525member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dugbug View Post



    I've never really been excited for an "S" iphone until this one. Would not surprise me if this one sells fast.



    Having said that, analysts extrapolating demand from queues seems worse than supply chain leaks.

     

    they have years of data, not that big a deal

  • Reply 11 of 45
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by PhilBoogie View Post



    Meanwhile, in Japan, there's an Android user, on the left in below picture, getting tired of viruses:



     

    Viruses?  Really?

  • Reply 12 of 45
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,591member
    Yea, I'm thinking 6MM as well. I'm pondering whether to get the 5S now or wait until next year for the 6. I have a 2 y.o. 4S now.
  • Reply 13 of 45
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    I hope the analysts aren't extrapolating 5C demand from the length of the queues. It seems like the vast majority of the line-ups are composed of 5S buyers. Hard to tell what the pre-order numbers are for the 5C.
    5C will be huge when the price drops $50-$100.
  • Reply 14 of 45
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post

     

     

    they have years of data, not that big a deal


     

    Years of data and they still get it wrong.

  • Reply 15 of 45
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    5C will be huge when the price drops $50-$100.

     

    Drop it $50 and demand will increase.

     


    Drop it $100 and demand will outstrip supply.


     


    jmho
  • Reply 16 of 45

    Golden days, in the sunshine of a happy youth,

    Golden days, full of gaiety and full of truth,

    In our hearts we remember them all else above.

    Golden days, days of youth and love...

    ******

    Not just for Student Princes but for iPhones too....

  • Reply 17 of 45
    gtrgtr Posts: 3,231member
    Anybody else getting symptoms of the 'iOpen' disease?

    Since installing iOS7 on my devices I've noticed that I've developed an addictive, compulsive behavior that makes me open things in iOS just to watch the animations.
  • Reply 18 of 45
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Drop it $50 and demand will increase.
     
    Drop it $100 and demand will outstrip supply.
     
    jmho
    I'd love it if Apple would do it. Really give Samsung, Google and Microsoft something to think about.
  • Reply 19 of 45
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    elmoofo wrote: »
    Blue 32gb 5C arrives today, Space Gray 5S arrives Oct. 6th. Gonna be a great release for Apple and Apple fans alike.

    Yes and no. Both phones are going to sell like crazy. Unfortunately, they're released less than 2 weeks before the end of the quarter - which means that delays in iPhone 5S supplies will have an impact this quarter. It's conceivable that Apple will miss this quarter's numbers from last year.
  • Reply 20 of 45
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    gtr wrote: »
    Anybody else getting symptoms of the 'iOpen' disease?

    Since installing iOS7 on my devices I've noticed that I've developed an addictive, compulsive behavior that makes me open things in iOS just to watch the animations.

    Haha me too.

    But apparently Miley Cyrus tweeted that she hated the new update so I guess iOS 7 is officially a failure. :lol:
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