Data bites dogma: Apple's iOS ate up Android, Blackberry U.S. market share losses this summer

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Market data is eating away at previously held notions in the mobile market. Blackberry's continued decline in U.S. smartphone market share over the summer was matched by an identical retraction by Android, while Apple's iOS has gained nearly all of the ground those other two platforms lost.

comScore
Source: comScore


The latest report from comScore ranking U.S. smartphone subscribers by hardware vendor and OS platform shows that Apple is continuing to advance, with growth outpacing that of its primary rival Samsung.

During the three month period between May 15 and August 15, Apple gained 1.5 percentage points of market share, narrowly outpacing Samsung's growth of 1.3 percentage points. That period immediately followed the launch of Samsung's flagship Galaxy S4, compared to the residual months of Apple's iPhone 5 sales eight to ten months after its launch.

No other phone vendors gained market share during that period; HTC lost 1.3 percentage points and Motorola lost 0.9 points, while LG's share remained static.

comScore
Source: comScore


The collective losses in share among Android licensees contributed to an overall decline in Google's smartphone platform by 0.8 percentage points. That's the same number of subscribers lost by the beleaguered Blackberry. And both platforms' declines in share were each four times the size of Microsoft's meager 0.2 percentage points of growth.

Conversely, Apple's increase accounted for 1.5 of the 1.6 percentage points that Android and Blackberry collectively lost. This occured a full month before the launch of Apple's iPhone 5s and 5c and the deployment of iOS 7. Further, Apple's market share comes entirely in the form of iPhone 4 or better devices, while the majority of Android phones being sold are low end devices that are often loss leaders.

Mobile Apps & Apple Maps

The same research firm also profiles mobile app audiences, noting for example that Facebook now has a 75.7 percent reach among smartphone users on both platforms. The firm's combined app data for iOS and Android also assigns Apple Maps a 27.5 percent penetration compared to 46.1 percent for Google Maps.

That means Apple's Maps, in its first year on the market, achieved 40 percent of Google's total audience reach, despite only being available on iOS, which comScore says represents 40.7 percent of the U.S. market.

comScore
Source: comScore


That level of popular use of Apple Maps, nearly a year after being launched to intense criticism and eight months after a competing, native Google Maps client app became available, appears to indicate that most users are not actually seeking out alternatives, as had been widely reported to likely be true.

Based on comScores figures, at least two thirds of iOS users are continuing to use Apple's Maps, while half of all smartphone users are either not using Google Maps or not using maps at all. If a significant proportion of iOS users simply don't use maps, that means Apple Maps has even greater penetration among those that do.
Schmidt was optimistically hoping Apple would shift directions because Apple Maps was running Google over on iOS.
In any case, the data does not support the idea that a significantly large proportion of iOS users have switched from Apple Maps to a competing product.

It also explains why Google's chairman Eric Schmidt continued to suggest the potential for Apple to give up on its own maps and simply adopt Google's as late as April, far after there was any hope in such a scenario actually occurring.

"We would still really like them to use our maps," Schmidt told CNET this spring. "It would be easy for them to take the app in the store and put it as their basic one."

Schmidt was optimistically hoping Apple would shift directions because Apple Maps was running Google over on iOS, the most valuable mobile platform to Google, even as iOS was also making gains on Android in the U.S., the world's most valuable smartphone market to Google.

The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated

The continued U.S. growth of iOS at the expense of Android and Blackberry is also noteworthy given that this summer was marked by incessant reports of Apple's supposed failure to "innovate," along with frequently stated concerns about Samsung's purported encroachment upon Apple's business.

Among these memes was a widely published report stating that 'teens no longer found Apple "cool,"' instead preferring Samsung's Galaxy brand along with Microsoft's Surface. After months of being broadly syndicated, largely without criticism, that headline now generates 189 million search results from Google."Teens are telling us Apple is done? - Tina Wells, Buzz

Those reports can be traced back to one source: Buzz Marketing Group, run by Tina Wells, who issued the report and was subsequently quoted by Fortune as saying "Teens are telling us Apple is done.?

Wells added, "Apple has done a great job of embracing Gen X and older [Millennials], but I don?t think they are connecting with Millennial kids [who are] all about Surface tablets/laptops and Galaxy."

Since January, however, Apple's iPhones subsequently outsold Samsung's higher end Galaxy phones, despite a series of flashy new product launches and aggressive smartphone discounting and promotion by Samsung. Meanwhile, the Surface turned out to a huge dud for Microsoft across all demographics, generating a write-off of nearly a billion dollars.

All mention of the "iPhone isn't cool" study, which was formerly prominently featured on the research firm's website, has since been removed.

Research based on surveys is notoriously biased by the questions users are asked, resulting in data that is clearly not accurate. Research based on demographics, rather than asking leading questions, arrives at different conclusions.

Youth actually trending toward iOS

In August, a report from Consumer Intelligence Research Partners looking at such demographics about smartphone ownership was largely reported as noting that more than twice as many Samsung owners were switching to iPhones rather than moving in the opposite direction.

It was also broadly reported, as Philip Elmer-Dewitt of the Fortune Apple 2.0 wrote, that the data "showed, not surprisingly, that Apple's customers tend to be richer and better educated than Samsung's."

Nearly 70 percent of iPhone users reported earning more than $50,000, while only 55 percent of Samsung's buyers did, and the number of users with a college degree, masters or doctorate were also much more likely to have an iPhone. This kind of data has also shown up in heat maps of users in affluent locations. Samsung has more middle age users and significantly greater penetration among seniors 55-64.

However, the data also showed that Apple maintained a significant edge over Samsung in smartphone ownership among youth 18-24, as well as being better represented among users 25-34.

On the other hand, Samsung has more middle age users and significantly greater penetration among seniors 55-64, perhaps related to the oversized screens Samsung commonly uses.


Source: Consumer Intelligence Research Partners


Ironically, Samsung has tried for the last two years to advertise that iPhones are only for old people. Last year, Samsung's TV ads portrayed young users bumping phones to exchange playlists using NFC as bewildered older people waited in line for the iPhone 4S.

The youngest person in line flashed his Galaxy S III and announced that he was just holding a place for his middle aged parents. A second ad campaign again presented befuddled, greying parents with iPhones as young people acted young and enthusiastically used proprietary Samsung features. Samsung has since taken the video spots off of YouTube.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 114
    red oakred oak Posts: 617member
    My understanding is comScore tracks the installed base, which reflects current buying trends more slowly

    I would not be surprised to see iPhone sales share climb to 60% for the next 6 months
  • Reply 2 of 114
    Funeral for Apple on Monday. Samsung executives will delivery eulogy to their paid PR shills in time for delivery at Monday's services. American press to follow in lockstep.

    Meanwhile, consumers, ignoring Samsung lies, pronounce Apple brand alive and well by buying Apple products in record numbers.

    /sarcasm
  • Reply 3 of 114
    philboogiephilboogie Posts: 7,424member
    0.8% point change for BB & Android? That is the news? I think the bigger news is Microsoft, going from 3.0 to 3.2 is more than 6% increase.
  • Reply 4 of 114
    Nah, Samsung will just order more channel stuffing. Problem: solved.
  • Reply 5 of 114
    jason98jason98 Posts: 759member

    Hard to believe FB app is installed on every 3 out of 4 smartphones in the US.

    Although not sufficiently representative, but almost no one in our office has the app installed on their smartphones...

  • Reply 6 of 114
    akqiesakqies Posts: 768member
    jason98 wrote: »
    Hard to believe FB app is installed on every 3 out of 4 smartphones in the US.
    Although not sufficiently representative, but almost no one in our office has the app installed on their smartphones...

    I have it installed but I can't say that I use it much. One reason for the high adoption rate is that in Settings on iOS the app is represented. If I had to go seek it out in the App Store I may not have installed it at all.
  • Reply 7 of 114
    paxmanpaxman Posts: 4,588member
    [QUOTE] that headline now generates 189 million search results from Google[/QUOTE]
    Which headline exactly? And how was it formed?
  • Reply 8 of 114
    The iPhone is simply too expense for teens. Teens are only knocking iphone as sort of a "sour grapes". They feel embarrassed to own an inferior phone, so they knock the leader and make false justifications to defend the garbage they own.
  • Reply 9 of 114
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Red Oak View Post



    My understanding is comScore tracks the installed base, which reflects current buying trends more slowly

     

     

    That's right, Red,

     

    Kantar on the other hand, measure actual user buying decisions and have found a very large increase YonY, in the 3 months ending August 2013, in iPhone's US market share up from 33.9% to 39.3% while Android's share dropped from 60.7% to 55.1%. The iPhone also gained market share in the same period in the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Australi, Japan and Mexico.

     

    All these iPhone gains have been with the nearly year old iPhone 5, two year old iPhone 4S and 3 year old 4 against the latest offerings from Samsung, HTC, LG, Nokia, Motorola etc.

     

    There is little doubt the the iPhone 5S and 5C are going to result in a further large increase in iPhone market share.

     

    We already have evidence of this in Cannacord Genuity's survey of the 4 big US carriers, which found that in September, the 5S and the 5C were theTWO best selling smartphones, forcing the Galaxy S4 into THIRD place.

     

    What makes this even more remarkable is that the 5S and 5C were only for sale for 10 days during September, whereas the Galaxy S4 was available for sale throughout the 30 days of September.

     

    That means that BOTH the iPhone 5S and 5C were selling at more than THREE TIMES the daily rate of the the Galaxy S4 i.e. a total iPhone sales rate  MORE THAN 6 TIMES the rate of the Galaxy S4

  • Reply 10 of 114
    Lies! This story is based on no facts! Oh, you mean that an overwhelming number of actual smartphone users don't visit forums such as AI?

    Oh. That explains is.

    ;)
  • Reply 11 of 114
    peter236peter236 Posts: 254member

    Apple IOS only has 6% market share in China, which is by far the largest smartphone market. Apple needs a new strategy otherwise android will continue to take market share.

  • Reply 12 of 114
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

     

    Apple IOS only has 6% market share in China, which is by far the largest smartphone market. Apple needs a new strategy otherwise android will continue to take market share.


     

    So what?

  • Reply 13 of 114
    cutykamucutykamu Posts: 223member
    peter236 wrote: »
    Apple IOS only has 6% market share in China, which is by far the largest smartphone market. Apple needs a new strategy otherwise android will continue to take market share.
    Last I heard 42 million users on china mobile that is without 3G/4g service and without iPhone 5s/5c. How is it apple is the one always loosing? Pls do explain.
  • Reply 14 of 114
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

     

    Apple IOS only has 6% market share in China, which is by far the largest smartphone market. Apple needs a new strategy otherwise android will continue to take market share.


     

    an old adage is: what does this have to do with the price of tea in china?

    in other words, it is china-who gives a rats

  • Reply 15 of 114
    thedbathedba Posts: 457member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by peter236 View Post

     

    Apple IOS only has 6% market share in China, which is by far the largest smartphone market. Apple needs a new strategy otherwise android will continue to take market share.


     

    Oh! You mean like actually striking a deal with China Mobile? What do you think they've been doing thus far?

    Before making uninformed statements such as these, you and every other analyst out there should maybe take a look at all the data and not just  part of it. 

    For example, how is Apple doing in the markets it actually does compete in?

    Another hint: Remember when iPhone was only available through AT&T? Remember all the predictions of doom and gloom back then? What happened after it became available to Verizon and then all other major carriers in the US?

  • Reply 16 of 114
    abazigalabazigal Posts: 114member

    I wouldn't read too much into that data, considering the whole world pretty much knew the next iphone was imminent, and so held off on their smartphone purchases. We will probably see a cyclical pattern where Android's market share increases in the first half of the year while the iphone regains that lead in the next half. 

     

    That said, I am not surprised that Apple Maps is slowly earning its trust back amongst users. I downloaded Google Maps "just in case" but never needed to use it. For all the uproar over how inaccurate Apple Maps was, I found that it actually worked pretty well in my area. I loved the cleaner interface, how it seemed to load faster, could pinpoint my location and update more quickly and accurately. 

     

    I like how Apple is also slowly but surely excising all traces of Google from its platform where possible (like maps and Siri) or promoting other alternatives (like Flickr and Vimeo over Google+ and Youtube). 

     

    Hell hath no fury like Apple scorned. 

  • Reply 17 of 114
    froodfrood Posts: 771member

    Great data for Apple!  Will be interesting to see how much the 5c helps them encroach even more on the Android demographic

  • Reply 18 of 114
    darklitedarklite Posts: 229member
    Quote:

    Based on comScores figures, at least two thirds of iOS users are continuing to use Apple's Maps, while half of all smartphone users are either not using Google Maps or not using maps at all. If a significant proportion of iOS users simply don't use maps, that means Apple Maps has even greater penetration among those that do.

    Schmidt was optimistically hoping Apple would shift directions because Apple Maps was running Google over on iOS.

    In any case, the data does not support the idea that a significantly large proportion of iOS users have switched from Apple Maps to a competing product.


     

     

    Couple of questions here:

     

    -What does it mean by "reach" and how reliable are the methods they're using to find it? Is it just install base, or is it usage? If it's install base, aren't a lot of these statistics meaningless since things like Apple Maps and Google Play come installed by default?

     

    -Where does the "two thirds of iOS users" or the "half of all smartphone users" mentioned in the article come from? In the report, Google Maps is listed at 46.1% "reach" while Apple Maps is listed at 27.5%. I don't understand what's going on here.

  • Reply 19 of 114
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    philboogie wrote: »
    0.8% point change for BB & Android? That is the news? I think the bigger news is Microsoft, going from 3.0 to 3.2 is more than 6% increase.

    Nope. None of those are news.

    In most surveys like this, the margin of error is +/- 2 or 3%. Anything less than that is meaningless (or, in some cases, marginally meaningful but at a much lower confidence level). Statistically, almost all of the numbers are 'no change'.

    And that doesn't even get into the biggest source of error in surveys like this. The margin of error calculations assume that the sample is truly random and representative. Since they don't give the methodology, there's no way of knowing if that's true of this particular survey.
  • Reply 20 of 114
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,963member
    paxman wrote: »
    Which headline exactly? And how was it formed?


    Seems like the headline searched was 'teens no longer found Apple cool'
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