Blockbuster iPhone 5s & iPad Air propelled Apple to 80M+ holiday iDevice sales - report

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
Total iOS device sales may have reached 80 million units in the just-concluded December quarter, driven by particularly strong demand for the new iPhone 5s and iPad Air, sales surveys conducted by Canaccord Genuity suggest.

iPhone 5s


Analyst T. Michael Walkley cited proprietary sales surveys in a note to investors on Tuesday, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider. Specifically, the data suggests that sales of both the iPhone 5s and the iPad Air, the flagship versions of Apple's two most popular product lines, were "strong" this holiday season.

Walkley has projected that Apple sold 54 million iPhones in the December quarter, representing a 13 percent year over year increase, along with 24.8 million iPads, good for 8 percent growth from a year prior.

Together, that would be nearly 80 million iOS devices -- and that doesn't even include the iOS-powered iPod touch, which historically has accounted for more than half of all iPod sales in any given quarter.

iPad Air


Walkley anticipates that Apple had a sales mix of roughly 2:1 between the premium iPhone 5s and the mid-range iPhone 5c. He sees that resulting in an average selling price near $620 for Apple's smartphone lineup.

Actual iOS device sales will be revealed by Apple in less than two weeks, on Jan. 27, when the company will officially announce earnings for its fiscal first quarter of 2014, a three-month span that concluded at the end of December. That period marked the first full quarter of availability of the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c, and also saw the launch of the iPad Air and iPad mini with Retina display.

For the currently in progress March quarter, Walkley sees iPhone sales easing seasonally to 42.1 million -- a number he said could prove conservative if Apple's launch on China Mobile, the world's largest carrier, proves to be a significant success. For calendar 2014, the analyst projects that Apple will sell a total of 180.4 million units.

While he's bullish on Apple and has maintained a $600 price target with a "buy" recommendation, Walkley came away from last week's Consumer Electronics Show unimpressed with the prospects for competing smartphones running the Android platform headed into 2014.

"With each new high-end smartphone introduction featuring a slightly fast processor, slightly better graphics, marginally better camera, slightly thinner form factor, and slightly bigger screen, we walked away from CES essentially unable to distinguish what was new or different about any of the essentially identical looking LTE Android smartphones introduced," he wrote.

As a result, he expects high-end smartphone sales in 2014 will continue to be dictated by ecosystem and brand rather than hardware. Apple and Samsung, which control the lion's share of premium smartphone sales, are predicted to remain on top, while competing handset makers fight over the scraps.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 32

    ...and don't think an earlier deal with China Mobile would've rocketed this stock.  Apple could not have made iPhones fast enough if a CM deal was made in Fiscal Q1.  Rolling out with CM this Q was probably a deliberate target.

     

    Supply chain management along with innovation and marketing is not an easy task.  Be thankful that Tim doesn't (& hasn't) lose sight of all this.

  • Reply 2 of 32
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,507member
    If true, it would be fn amazing. No growth, my ass.
  • Reply 3 of 32
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    jungmark wrote: »
    If true, it would be fn amazing. No growth, my ass.
    I get this uneasy feeling that we'll get overinflated figures from Wall Street which Apple won't meet and then the stock will sell off. :(
  • Reply 4 of 32
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    I get this uneasy feeling that we'll get overinflated figures from Wall Street which Apple won't meet and then the stock will sell off. image

    13% and 8% YoY is hardly an overinflated prediction within the smartphone and tablet growth markets

  • Reply 5 of 32
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    all that real matters is EPS growth.

     

    13.81 last year.  Hoping for 15.00+ for about a 10% growth in EPS.

     

    Last year the stock price drop was understandable because EPS growth went negative for 3 Qtrs in a row.  Understandable but short-sighted.  All that matters is Apple start to grow EPS again at a 10-15% rate.  That should move the stock to the $600-$650 range. 


    I love it that the stock isn't going up, this allows us that invest to buy now and patiently accumulate shares until they go back to the sky high prices we saw a few years ago.  The longer the value is depressed the more time I have to slowly build up shares in my portfolio.  I need time to collect enough shares so that when the price goes up 100 or 200 a share I can sell and use my profits to invest in a new rental property.  I for one am happy to buy low sell high =)

  • Reply 6 of 32

    80 million? pfft...

     

    More than 60 million iPhones;    --- Apple's flagship model is selling much more than iPhone 5. iPhone 5c is selling more than the 4s did, last year. 4s => 4.

    More than 30 million iPads;  ---- iPad mini retina without compromises, fresh iPad Air, cheaper iPad mini.

    More than 10 million iPods; ---- iPods are iPods... Most are iPod touch.

    More than 6 million Macs. ---- Best quarter ever for the Mac is assured. No supply problems (besides the pro). 2nd Gen retina models and the air sells more and more. Macs are growing outside the US, and even there some predicted 25% growth.

     

    My bet? It will be closer to 100 million than 90 million (iOS) devices.

    Also, software and ecosystem revenue will bring some serious cash. so:

     

    60 billion revenue, 12 billion net profit. Stock goes down because it is rumored that something, somewhere will occur, like people will stop buying phones and tablets and will instead buy watches and thermostats.

  • Reply 7 of 32
    My company was giving out iPad mini with Retina as Christmas gifts this year. I also saw long lines at Thanksgiving sale at Target. My guess is 40 million iPads for the 1Q 2014.
  • Reply 8 of 32
    Quote:

     History as a reference:

     

    2012 Holiday Quarter

    iPhones 47.80M

    iPads  22.90M

    iPods 12.70M

    Total iOS devices: 83.40

     

    WTF man. 80M is no big deal.  Here is my forecast

     

    iPhones 57-60M

    iPads 28-30M

    iPods 8-10M

    Total iOS devices: 93M to 100M

     

    Add in 5M Macs and you get over 100,000,000 iOS/OSX devices sold in ONE QUARTER. Holy hell.


    But about 50% of the iPod figure will be non iOS devices (Apple only says more then 50% of iPods are Touches)

     

    Also, what are you basing your estimate on?

     

  • Reply 9 of 32
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,508member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

     

    80 million? pfft...

     

    More than 60 million iPhones;    --- Apple's flagship model is selling much more than iPhone 5. iPhone 5c is selling more than the 4s did, last year. 4s => 4.

    More than 30 million iPads;  ---- iPad mini retina without compromises, fresh iPad Air, cheaper iPad mini.

    More than 10 million iPods; ---- iPods are iPods... Most are iPod touch.

    More than 6 million Macs. ---- Best quarter ever for the Mac is assured. No supply problems (besides the pro). 2nd Gen retina models and the air sells more and more. Macs are growing outside the US, and even there some predicted 25% growth.

     

    My bet? It will be closer to 100 million than 90 million (iOS) devices.

    Also, software and ecosystem revenue will bring some serious cash. so:

     

    60 billion revenue, 12 billion net profit. Stock goes down because it is rumored that something, somewhere will occur, like people will stop buying phones and tablets and will instead buy watches and thermostats.


    60 billion revenue will bring significantly more than 12 billion net profit.  

  • Reply 10 of 32
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,508member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by winstein2010 View Post



    My company was giving out iPad mini with Retina as Christmas gifts this year. I also saw long lines at Thanksgiving sale at Target. My guess is 40 million iPads for the 1Q 2014.

    40 million iPads is a pipe dream.  Even 30 million would be a blowout.

  • Reply 11 of 32
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post

     

    Stock goes down because it is rumored that something, somewhere will occur, like people will stop buying phones and tablets and will instead buy watches and thermostats.


    Ha! Yes, watches, thermostats, and especially search results.

  • Reply 12 of 32
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 4,021member

    Just wait... you can hear it coming... walls street is trying to figure out how to make positives into negatives here. 

     

    Honestly not that I would not like to see those numbers come true and make ever analysis look like an idiot once again, but i think those are hard number for apple to hit.

  • Reply 13 of 32
    jd_in_sbjd_in_sb Posts: 1,466member

    What's great is now Apple can go on a two-year update cycle for the iPad. In odd years it will be the iPad Air. In even years it will be the iPad Pro. That gives more time for development of each product.

  • Reply 14 of 32
    EPS will come at $15.5 or higher. Most products (iPhones, iPads, Macs) and even the App Store will see over 10% unit increase, even above 15% in most.

    China Mobile will ge great for next quarter.

    Then we will have a new product line, most likely the iWatch.

    2014 will be great for Apple.
  • Reply 15 of 32
    bobschlobbobschlob Posts: 1,074member

    Yes. worried this kind of discussion will fuel ridiculous "whisper numbers". And then it will be "All Apple's fault" when Apple doesn't beat those ridiculous numbers.

  • Reply 16 of 32
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
  • Reply 17 of 32
    adonissmuadonissmu Posts: 1,770member

    I was expecting higher numbers from Apple the market leader. I guess even they aren't infallible. 

  • Reply 18 of 32
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post



    But Trip Chowdhry says Apple needs to replace Cook with Jon Rubenstein

    http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/investors/SIG=12vi78o16/*http://news.investors.com/011414-686307-google-creating-new-industries-while-apple-coasts.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo



    And Todd Wasserman claims Google is eating Apple's lunch because they spend more on M&A than Apple does.

    http://mashable.com/2014/01/14/google-is-eating-apples-lunch/?utm_cid=mash-com-Tw-main-link

     

    I honestly thought Cook would have shown more of Apple's vision for the future in 2013. The revamped iPads and the 5c just wasn't it.

     

    I'm hoping that 2014 is the year that Cook unveils a bit of the roadmap.

  • Reply 19 of 32
    Originally Posted by AdonisSMU View Post

    I was expecting higher numbers from Apple the market leader. I guess even they aren't infallible. 

     

    You just shorted out the FUD meter. Now I have to recalibrate all my dials.

  • Reply 20 of 32
    rogifan wrote: »

    I honestly thought Cook would have shown more of Apple's vision for the future in 2013. The revamped iPads and the 5c just wasn't it.

    I'm hoping that 2014 is the year that Cook unveils a bit of the roadmap.

    Err...
    • Free OSX
    • Free iWork, iLife
    • Cross-platform (including cloud) iWork suite
    • Free upgrade to OSX Pro apps
    • Revolutionary best-in-class Mac Pro
    • Best Smart Phones
    • Best Tablets
    • iBeacon Technology
    • 64-bit A7 desktop-class APU

    To name a few...
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